21:05 UTC
Downtrend since late-August high, oversold · RSI 24 · price 0.56623
Lower highs from 0.5988, testing June low neckline.
NZDUSD has been in a month-long downtrend since the 0.5988 high of Aug 21, which stalled just below May's 0.5994 peak to form a double top. Lower highs at 0.5902, 0.5835 and 0.5750 define the sequence, with price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Strong US flash PMIs knocked the pair through the 0.5700 round number on Wednesday. It now sits at the week low near 0.5650, just above the 0.5626 june low that doubles as the pattern neckline, with RSI in the low 20s the most stretched reading of the window.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5835
What it said to watch
- D1 close below the 0.5626 june low confirms the double top break and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
- Recapture of the 0.5700 round number, then the 0.5750 sep highs, would break the lower highs line
- 0.5835 lower high sits near the 38.2%-50% zone of the Aug–Sep drop fib (0.5779–0.5819); that area would need to be cleared to end the downtrend read
- US ADP, GDP and PCE on Sep 30 could materially shift this read from oversold levels
- RBA decision on Sep 29 is a cross-driven risk for NZD