21:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near lows · RSI 26 · price 0.56758
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak.
Four weeks of lower highs and lower lows have followed the 0.5988 Aug 21 peak. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 on D1 as a hawkish Fed repricing and firm US PMI and claims data keep the USD bid. Tuesday's slide through the 0.5700 breakdown level printed a fresh swing low at 0.5660, leaving the June low at 0.5626 and the 0.5600 range floor as the remaining structure below. RSI near 26 is oversold but shows no divergence yet.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5749, 0.5835
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 0.5700 breakdown level would mark the first stall in the lower-low sequence
- Close above the 0.5749 lower high breaks the falling-highs trendline
- 38.2% retracement of the Aug-Sep decline near 0.5786, with the 0.5835 sep high beyond it, frames the wider recovery zone
- Close below the 0.5626 june low exposes the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
- Friday's US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read; RBA decision Sep 29 adds cross risk