Lower highs have followed Tuesday's 0.5749 London-session peak. The strong US flash PMIs in Wednesday's NY session broke the 0.5700 prior floor, and Thursday's NY session pushed to a 0.5650 week low as yields rose after the 7-year auction. Price is holding just under EMA(20) near 0.5664 with RSI(14) around 42, while the lower-highs trendline sits in the same area and Thursday's 0.5686 prior high caps above.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and 0.5686 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence; that level also sits at the decline fib 38.2%
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low extends the downtrend toward 0.5626 and the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery back above the 0.5700 prior floor, the 50% of the decline fib, negates the range break
US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5749 Tue peak; twin tests of 0.5650 week low.
Lower highs since Tuesday's London-session peak at 0.5749, with the NY session driving both legs lower: Wednesday's slide after the US PMI beats, then Thursday's break of the 0.5666–0.5686 London range as claims and new home sales beat and yields held above 5%. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.5666 with RSI(14) around 39, and the lower-highs trendline capped Thursday's NY bounce at the 0.5675 lower high. The 0.5650 week low has held on two tests, with the 0.5600 range floor below.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5675, 0.5686
What it said to watch
H1 close above Thursday's 0.5686 high, which sits beside the 38.2% retracement of the Tue–Thu decline, breaks the lower-highs trendline and the sequence from 0.5749
Acceptance below the 0.5650 week low exposes the 0.5626 prior level flagged in the digest and the 0.5600 range floor
Friday's US durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations and Fed's Williams/Hammack could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines remain the swing factor for risk-sensitive NZD
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 peak; two NY-session tests of 0.5650.
The week opened at 0.5716. Tuesday's NY-session squeeze to the 0.5749 week high faded, and Wednesday's strong US PMIs drove a roughly 1% slide back through the weekly open. Firmer Treasury yields and a US jobless-claims beat pushed price to a 0.5650 week low during NY hours today, with the 0.5675 bounce high capping the only rebound and the thursday hi at 0.5686 marking the session top. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 39, and the lower-highs line from Tuesday's peak is still intact.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5626 pivot and the 0.5600 range floor
Reclaim of the 0.5675 bounce high and the lower-highs line would turn the twin 0.5650 tests into a double-bottom attempt
Acceptance above the 0.5686 thursday hi and the 0.5700 round number would neutralise the lower-highs read
Trump-Xi summit headlines and Friday's US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from Tuesday's 0.5749 week high; base forming at 0.5650.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's London-session peak at 0.5749. The strong US flash PMIs drove the NY-session break on Wednesday, and firmer Treasury yields added another NY leg today down to the 0.5650 week low. That level has held two tests so far. The NY-hours rebound to 0.5675 faded at EMA(20) near 0.5666, while RSI(14) sits near 38 with no bullish divergence against the new low.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5650 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 psych level
Reclaim of the EMA(20) at 0.5666 followed by a close above the Thursday high at 0.5686 breaks the lower-high trendline and the lower-high sequence
0.5700 round number is the 50% retracement of the week high-low fib and the level Wednesday's breakdown started from
Trump-Xi summit headlines, Friday's durable goods and UoM inflation expectations, and Williams/Hammack remarks could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5749 week high; 0.5650 tested twice.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5749 week high. Wednesday's NY-session drop through 0.5700 on the US PMI beats did most of the damage, and Thursday's NY session extended it to a 0.5650 week low as Treasury yields rose. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and the 16:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 0.5675 lower high. RSI(14) near 39 at the new low is above its reading at Wednesday's 0.5660 low, a bullish divergence while 0.5650 holds.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5686, 0.5716
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.5650 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
Close above 0.5686 thu high breaks the lower-high line and reclaims the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday-Thursday decline; 0.5716 weekly open sits above
Failure to clear the 0.5675 lower high keeps the divergence unconfirmed
Trump-Xi summit headlines and Friday's US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Williams/Hammack remarks could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low sequence from 0.5749; Thursday NY break of Wed low.
Since the rejection at Tuesday's 0.5749 week high, NZDUSD has printed a lower-high sequence and trades roughly 60 pips below the 0.5716 weekly open, with EMA(20) capping bounces since Wednesday. The dominant legs came in NY hours: the beat on US flash PMIs drove Wednesday's slide, and today's claims and new home sales beats pushed price through the 0.5660 Wed low to a 0.5650 week low. The NY-session bounce stalled at the 0.5675 lower high on the trendline, and RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56604, 0.5675, 0.57161
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5675 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5688 (38.2% of the Tue-Thu drop) sits just above
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low exposes 0.5626 interim support and the 0.5600 range floor
A reclaim of the 0.5660 Wed low as support would mark the NY break as a false break
Trump-Xi summit headlines, plus Fri US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5749 London high.
The week opened at 0.5716. Tuesday's London push to 0.5749 marked the week high, and the pair has printed lower highs since, with the main leg lower arriving from the NY open Wednesday after the blowout US PMIs. On Thursday, Asia and London held a 0.5664–0.5686 range. That range gave way in NY hours after the jobless claims beat and the Trump-Xi meeting produced no tariff news, taking price to a 0.5650 week low. The bounce has stalled just under EMA(20) near 0.5671, with RSI(14) at 43 and holding below 50.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5686 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low exposes 0.5626, with the 0.5600 range floor since April below that
Rejection at ema20 near 0.5671 keeps the wed low at 0.5660 in play as the next test
Recovery through the round number 0.5700 reaches the 50% retracement of the Tue-Thu drop
Trump-Xi summit headlines, plus Friday's US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low · RSI 29 · price 0.5656
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5749 high.
The week opened at 0.5716. Supply capped Tuesday's London high at 0.5749, then Wednesday's US PMI beat drove a 1% slide in NY hours to the 0.5660 Wed low, breaking below the 0.5700-0.5800 range. Thursday held a tight 0.5664-0.5686 session range under EMA(20), until firm US claims and new home sales pushed price through the 0.5671 july low in the NY session. That move printed a 0.5650 week low, about 99 pips off Tuesday's high. RSI(14) near 29 is pressing oversold, and each bounce this week has stalled under the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.5671, 0.5686
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5671 july low, where EMA(20) also sits, would return price to Thursday's range and soften the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.5650 week low exposes 0.5626, then the 0.5600 range floor
Only a reclaim of the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5686 thu high, near the 38.2% retrace of the decline, breaks the lower-high sequence
Oversold RSI near 29 leaves room for a bounce toward the 0.5660 wed low without changing structure
Fri US durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Hammack could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; tight base below EMA20.
The week opened at 0.5716, and Tuesday's London push to the 0.5749 week high failed. In the NY session on Wednesday, the hot US flash PMIs took the pair through the 0.5700 range floor to a 0.5660 week low, with the lower-highs trendline from Tuesday capping every bounce since. Thursday has compressed in a 0.5664–0.5686 band below EMA20 as claims beat at 197K. The day high at 0.5686 sits just above the 23.6% retrace of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop, and RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.56604, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5673, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5660 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5650 round number
Sustained trade back above EMA20 near 0.5673 and the 0.5686 day high breaks the lower-highs trendline and turns the base into a corrective bounce toward the 0.5700 range floor
Trump-Xi headlines today are unscheduled risk that could materially shift this read
Fri Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations could re-price Fed hike odds and move the pair
Lower highs from 0.5749; tight 0.5665-0.5686 range Thursday.
The week's dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the US PMI beats extended the slide from Tuesday's 0.5749 high to a week low at 0.5660, well under the 0.5700 pivot and the 0.5716 weekly open. Thursday has held a tight range, with a range top at 0.5686 and a range low near 0.5666. The rebound has stalled just above the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop, and a small higher-lows sequence has formed off the week low. Price is hugging EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 45, and today's claims beat drew little follow-through.
Support: 0.56655, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.57161
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5666 range low and the 0.5660 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5686 range top opens a retest of the 0.5700 pivot; holding above it would challenge the breakdown read
Break of the higher-lows line from the week low would end Thursday's stabilisation
Trump-Xi summit headlines, Fed's Paulson and US New Home Sales today could break the Thursday range
Lower highs since Tuesday; tight base 0.5664-0.5686.
The week's dominant move was the Tue–Wed drop from the 0.5749 London high to the 0.5660 week low. The slide accelerated in Wednesday's NY session after the strong US flash PMIs lifted yields. Since then price has compressed between the 0.5664 day low and the 0.5686 day high, holding just under EMA(20) near 0.5675 with RSI(14) around 38, while Asia and London rallies stalled beneath the lower highs line well short of the 38.2% retrace near 0.5694.
Support: 0.56635, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5660 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes 0.5650
Acceptance above the 0.5686 day high and the lower highs line would mark a corrective bounce toward the 0.5700 round number
Repeated closes back under EMA(20) keep the band capped from above
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson could break the 0.5664-0.5686 band
Trump-Xi talks headlines are a two-way risk for the kiwi today
Lower highs since Tuesday; tight base above week low.
The week opened at 0.5716 and Monday–Tuesday chopped between 0.5694 and a 0.5749 cap before the US flash PMI beats drove a NY-session break of the 0.5700 broken pivot on Wednesday, extending to a 0.5660 week low. Thursday has compressed in a 0.5663–0.5686 band, with the thursday low holding. The Asia high at 0.5686 and a London retest at 0.5684 both rejected below the 23.6–38.2% retracement of the Wednesday selloff. Price holds just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) back to the mid-40s from oversold, and the lower-highs line from Tuesday remains intact.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5716
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5700 broken pivot and the lower-highs trendline would negate the breakdown read and put the 0.5716 weekly open back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5663 thursday low and the 0.5660 week low exposes the 0.5650 round number
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and today's Trump-Xi talks could materially shift this read
Stalling again near the 0.5694 fib 38.2% of the Wednesday selloff keeps the lower-highs sequence in place
Lower highs since Tuesday; tight Thursday range 0.5664-0.5686.
Since Tuesday's London high at 0.5749 the pair has printed lower highs, and Wednesday's NY-session slide on the US flash PMI beat broke below 0.5700 to a week low at 0.5660. Thursday's trade is a tight 0.5664-0.5686 consolidation below EMA20 near 0.5678. The London push to 0.5684 stalled at the lower-highs trendline, and RSI(14) has recovered only to about 39. Price sits on the early-July low at 0.5671, with the 0.5700 prior range floor now overhead.
Support: 0.5671, 0.56604, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5678, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the thu high at 0.5686 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs; 0.5700 prior range floor is next overhead
Sustained trade below the july low at 0.5671 exposes the week low at 0.5660, then 0.5650 psych
The Tue-Wed decline's 23.6% retracement near 0.5681 has capped Thursday's rebound; 38.2% sits at 0.5694, just under 0.5700
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson remarks could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi talks today: a risk headline could break Thursday's consolidation
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 peak; tight range above the week low.
The week opened at 0.5716 and topped at 0.5749 in Tuesday's London session before lower highs set in. Wednesday's strong US flash PMIs drove the break below the 0.5700 pivot during NY hours, taking price to a week low at 0.5660. Since then price has compressed between 0.5663 and 0.5686 just above the 0.5671 July low, below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 40, and the day high has capped two London-session probes near the 23.6% fib of the week's decline.
Support: 0.5671, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5716
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5686 day high and the 0.5700 pivot would mark the first higher high since Tuesday and put the weekly open at 0.5716 in view.
Failure to hold the 0.5671 July low and the 0.5660 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5650.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Fedspeak and today's Trump-Xi talks could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 0.5749; tight 0.5664-0.5686 range above week low.
After opening the week at 0.5716 and printing the week high at 0.5749 in Tuesday's London session, NZDUSD slid about 89 pips through Wednesday. The drop accelerated in NY hours after the sharp US PMI beat lifted Fed-hike pricing, and it found the week low at 0.5660. Since then price has been compressing in a 0.5664-0.5686 range through the Asian session and London open. It is holding just above EMA(20) and edging over the lower-high line, but is still capped at the range top near the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5716
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5686 range top clears the 23.6% fib and exposes the 0.5700 psych level, then the 0.5716 week open
Loss of the 0.5664 asian low, then the 0.5660 week low, resumes the lower-low sequence toward 0.5650/0.5626
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines today are the main swing factor for the range
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5749 peak; tight Asian range beneath EMA(20) after Wednesday's range break.
The week opened at 0.5716. London drove Tuesday's push to the 0.5749 week high, but NY faded it. Wednesday's NY session then broke below Tuesday's 0.5694 Asia low after the sharp US PMI beats revived October Fed-hike bets, extending to a 0.5660 week low. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering from oversold into the low 40s. The 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop and the 0.5700 round number sit overhead.
Support: 0.5669, 0.56604, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.57161
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5686 asian high and EMA(20) would open a retest of the 38.2% fib at 0.5694 and the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5669 asian low puts the 0.5660 week low back in play; a break there confirms a lower-low toward 0.5626 and the 0.5600 range floor
Weekly open at 0.5716, near the 61.8% fib, marks where the Tuesday-Wednesday selloff would be fully reclaimed
Trump-Xi summit headlines today could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) are near-term catalysts for Fed-hike pricing
NZDUSD has shed about 90 pips from Tuesday's London high at 0.5749. The range break below the 0.5700 round number came in Wednesday's NY session, when strong US flash PMIs lifted October Fed-hike pricing and printed a week low at 0.5660, extending the sequence of lower highs. Thursday's Asia session has compressed into a 0.5664–0.5686 consolidation, holding below EMA(20) near 0.5680 and stalling under the 38.2% fib of the weekly drop, with RSI(14) near 39 after sub-30 readings on Wednesday.
Support: 0.56635, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the asia high at 0.5686 and the ema20 near 0.5680 would mark the first break of the lower-high sequence since Tuesday
Recovery above the 0.5700 round number would put price back inside Monday–Tuesday's broken range
Failure below the asia low at 0.5664 and the week low at 0.5660 confirms a fresh lower-low, with 0.5650 next on the digest's map
Trump-Xi summit headlines today could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) are NY-session risk for USD pricing
Lower highs from 0.5749; tight consolidation below the broken 0.5700 floor.
The week opened at 0.5716. Tuesday's spike to 0.5749 faded into a sequence of lower highs, and Wednesday's NY-session US PMI beat broke the 0.5700 old floor to a 0.5660 week low. Since then price has held a narrow 0.5664–0.5686 band through the Asia session. The session high sits just above EMA(20) near 0.5682, and RSI(14) has lifted to about 38 without reclaiming 50. The Tuesday-Wednesday leg retracement has stalled between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels.
Support: 0.56604, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.57161
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5700 old floor, and the lower-highs trendline, would challenge the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.5660 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5650 round number
Reclaiming the 0.5716 weekly open would retrace the Tuesday-Wednesday leg to its 61.8%
Trump-Xi meeting today, plus Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating off lows · RSI 37 · price 0.56759
Lower highs from 0.5749; 0.5700 range floor broken, basing above 0.5660.
Monday and Tuesday held a 0.5700–0.5749 range. Supply capped Tuesday's London high at 0.5749, and each later bounce printed a lower high along the trendline. The 0.5700 floor gave way in Wednesday's NY session after the blowout US PMI beat lifted Fed-hike pricing, with the week's drop extending to a 0.5660 week low late in NY. Thursday's Asia session is consolidating at 0.5664–0.5678, just under the ema20 at 0.5684 and the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop, with RSI(14) recovering to the high-30s from sub-30 readings.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5700, 0.5716
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5700 broken floor would undercut the range-break read and put the 0.5716 weekly open / 61.8% of the week's drop in view
Failure to hold the 0.5660 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5650 psych
Trump-Xi meeting Thursday could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Fed speakers could move the pair during the NY session