Lower highs from Asian high; flat base at 0.5650 after three tests.
Kiwi slid through London from the 0.5686 Asian high to a 0.5650 session low as US yields pushed to new highs. A NY-hours spike to 0.5675 met rejection near the 61.8–78.6% fib zone, and 0.5650 held on three tests. Thin post-NY trade has compressed into a 0.5655 range low to 0.5664 late high band.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 session low breaks the base and exposes 0.5626
Close above the 0.5664 late high, then the 0.5675 spike high, breaks the lower-highs sequence toward the 0.5686 Asian high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 0.5686, tight 0.5651–0.5664 box in early Asia.
NZDUSD slid from the 0.5686 asia high through London and NY as US yields climbed on strong claims and hawkish Fed speakers, with the 0.5650 day low holding on three tests. The 0.5675 spike high was rejected and a lower highs sequence has formed. Price is now compressing below the 0.5664 session high in thin early Asia trade, RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 day low opens the path toward 0.5626 next support
Break of the 0.5664 session high and the lower highs trendline shifts the read to a range
Acceptance above the 0.5675 spike high puts the 0.5686 asia high back in play
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could reset the structure
Lower highs from 0.5686; twin lows at 0.5650, early-Asia range 0.5655–0.5664.
Kiwi broke the 0.5670 Asian/London floor in NY as US yields hit new highs. It printed a double low at 0.5650 either side of a failed spike high at 0.5675, extending the lower highs line from the 0.5686 session high. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.5655–0.5664 band just above EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56552, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56636, 0.56747, 0.5686
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5650 double low voids the double bottom and extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5626
Close above the 0.5675 spike high breaks the lower highs line and completes the double bottom
Asia high at 0.5664 and late NY low at 0.5655 define the current Asian range
Fed Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
NY sell-off into a 0.5650–0.5675 range, lower highs intact.
US data beats and the 5.085% 7-year auction pushed NZDUSD down to 0.5650 twice during NY hours, printing a double btm, while the late-NY spike high at 0.5675 capped the bounce. Early Asia session is holding 0.5660–0.5664 after a thin rollover low at 0.5652, about a third of the way back up the London high–NY low drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and price is pinned at EMA50.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 double btm breaks the NY range floor, with 0.5626 the next level flagged in the digest
Close above the 0.5664 late high and the lower highs line opens the 0.5675 spike high, then the 0.5684 london high
Losing the 0.5652 rollover low in thin Asia trade would put the double btm back under test
Trump-Xi headlines and US yields drive Asia; Williams, Durables and UoM on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; NY floor at 0.5650 held three times.
USD strength on the claims and home-sales beats and hawkish Fed speakers pushed NZDUSD off the 0.5684 london high into a 0.5650 triple low during NY. The 0.5675 spike high faded under the descending trendline. Early Asia bounced off the 0.5652 rollover low into the 0.5664 asia high, near the 50% fib of the spike-high drop.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5664 asia high and the trendline (~0.5667) opens the 0.5675 spike high
Break of the 0.5652 rollover low returns focus to the 0.5650 triple low; a close below it extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of 0.5684 london high needed to invalidate the downtrend read
Trump-Xi summit headlines during Asia hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; 0.5650–0.5664 range after NY low.
NY session broke below the Asian range and London lows on firm USD, with yields and US data beats in the lead, printing a 0.5650 NY low. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.5675 spike high faded into another lower high. Early Asia has bounced from the 0.5652 swing low into the 50% spike fib near 0.5662, where price is pinned against EMA50.
Support: 0.5652, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5664 late high opens the 0.5675 spike high and the lower highs trendline near 0.5667
Failure at the 0.5652 swing low and a break of the 0.5650 NY low confirms a lower-low after three tests
Rejection at the 50% spike fib keeps the 0.5650–0.5664 range intact
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read in thin Asia trade
Lower highs from 0.5684 session high; flat triple low base at 0.5650.
NY session broke under the Asian range and the 0.5664 breakdown level, extending to a 0.5650 triple low as USD firmed on the claims and new home sales beats, hawkish Fed talk and 5%+ yields. The 15:45 UTC spike high at 0.5675 faded back to the lows, and after a thin rollover dip toward 0.5651 price is back at 0.5662, just under the breakdown level and the 38.2% of the 0.5684–0.5650 fib, with the late NY low at 0.5655 below.
Support: 0.56555, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5664 breakdown level opens the 0.5675 spike high and the lower highs line
Break of the 0.5650 triple low and the 0.5655 late NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.5684 session high invalidates the downtrend read
Trump-Xi summit headlines during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5684, flat 0.5650–0.5661 range.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.5684 London high as rising US yields lifted the dollar. The NY-session spike to the 0.5675 lower high was fully faded. Price is now pinned in a 0.5650–0.5661 range into the Asia open, with the 0.5650 day low holding on three tests and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5661, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5661 range top lifts price into the 50–61.8% zone of the spike fade
Reclaim of the 0.5675 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5650 day low exposes the 0.5626 next pivot
Trump-Xi talks outcome, due now, could materially shift this read
Thin rollover liquidity produced 0.5651 wicks; early Asia session prints may be noisy
Lower highs from London high; late-NY range 0.5650–0.5661.
NZDUSD lost the 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range from the 0.5684 London high as hawkish Fed talk, firm US claims and elevated yields bid the USD. The NY session low at 0.5650 held three times, and the 16:15 UTC spike to 0.5675 was fully rejected. Price now sits in thin rollover trade under the 0.5661 range top, with the Trump-Xi outcome still pending.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5661, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Recovery above the 0.5661 range top puts the 0.5675 spike high and the descending trendline back in play
Only a reclaim of the 0.5684 London high negates the intraday downtrend read
Trump-Xi talks headlines during Asia could materially shift this read in thin liquidity
21:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening late · RSI 49 · price 0.56586
Lower highs from London high; tight range above session low.
The sell-off from the 0.5684 London high ran through NY on firmer US data and yields, printing a 0.5650 session low twice. The 15:15 UTC spike to 0.5675 was fully rejected, extending the lower highs, and price has since compressed between the 0.5655 range low and the 0.5662 range top in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 0.56552, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56617, 0.56747, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 session low confirms a lower low, with 0.5626 the next digest level
Close above the 0.5662 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens a retest of the 0.5675 spike high
Only a reclaim of the 0.5684 London high would negate the intraday downtrend read
Trump-Xi summit headlines could jolt thin rollover and Asia-open liquidity
Lower highs from London high, flat base at 0.5650, tight post-NY range.
A firm USD, lifted by hawkish Fed talk and beats in claims and new home sales, pushed NZDUSD out of the Asian range during London. It printed lower highs from the 0.5684 london high while the 0.5650 day low held three times, and the NY spike to 0.5675 was fully rejected. Post-NY-close trade is compressing between the 0.5655 session low and the 0.5661 range top, near the 38.2% of the spike retrace.
Support: 0.56552, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5661, 0.56747, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5661 range top opens a retest of the 0.5675 spike high and the lower highs trendline
Break of the 0.5650 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5626 area
Loss of the 0.5655 session low puts the day low back in play in thin post-NY liquidity
Trump-Xi summit headlines during the Asia session could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.56598
Lower highs from London high; twin lows at 0.5650 holding.
London faded from the 0.5684 london high and NY extended to twin lows at 0.5650 as firm US data and yields kept the USD bid. The mid-NY spike high at 0.5675 met rejection and printed another point on the lower highs line. Late NY is compressing between the 0.5655 late NY low and the 0.5662 lower high, pinned to EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.56552, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56617, 0.56747, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 twin lows confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 0.5662 lower high reopens the 0.5675 spike high
Trump-Xi summit headlines into Asia session could break the late NY range
Lower highs from the London high; late-NY compression 0.5655–0.5662 above a double bottom.
NY broke the 0.5664 Asian range low as Treasury yields rose after the US claims beats. Price then printed a double bottom at 0.5650 (14:45 and 17:45 UTC) around a 16:00 UTC spike to 0.5675 that was rejected, extending the lower highs from the 0.5684 London high. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5655–0.5662 range, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56552, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56617, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 range top opens a retest of the 0.5675 spike high and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.5650 double btm confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
A break of the 0.5655 range low puts the double btm back in play
Trump-Xi summit headlines in thin early-Asia trade could break the late-NY range
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.5669 and NY extended to a 0.5650 swing low as firmer Treasury yields and US data beats lifted the USD. A late-NY spike to 0.5675 was fully rejected. The 0.5650 swing low was retested, and price now drifts inside a 0.5655–0.5662 post-NY band under the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes next support at 0.5626, then the 0.5600 psych floor
Hold above the 0.5662 late ny high and the lower-highs line breaks the micro sequence; the 0.5675 spike high sits at the 78.6% zone of the day's decline
Round number 0.5700 is the reclaim level cited in the macro digest
Trump-Xi summit headlines during the Asia session could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.56587
Lower highs from London high; session low 0.5650 held twice.
NZDUSD faded from the 0.5684 London high and broke the 0.5669 Asian low as firm US claims and home sales kept yields and the USD bid. NY put in a session low at 0.5650 twice, and the mid-NY spike to the 0.5675 spike high was fully rejected. Late NY is compressing between the 0.5656 swing low and the 0.5662 swing high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5626
M15 close above the 0.5662 swing high and the lower highs line reopens the 0.5669 Asian low
A reclaim of the 0.5675 spike high would break the lower highs sequence and sit above the 0.618 of the London fade fib
Trump-Xi summit headlines into the Asia session could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through all three sessions · RSI 40 · price 0.56599
Lower highs from the 0.5684 London high carried NY through the Asian and London lows to a 0.5650 double bottom as US claims and new home sales beats kept the USD bid. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.5675 spike high met rejection and fully retraced. Late NY is compressing between the 0.5656 late low and the 0.5662 late cap, roughly the 38–50% fib of that fade.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 late cap and 50% fib opens a retest of the 0.5675 spike high
Break of the lower highs trendline above 0.5684 london high invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5650 double btm confirms a fresh lower-low
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read in thin Asia trade
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and US durables 12:30 UTC Friday
Lower highs, triple low at 0.5650, tight range above it.
NZD/USD slipped below the asian low at 0.5669 during London as firm US data and higher yields lifted the dollar, then printed a triple low at 0.5650 in NY. A 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.5675 spike high stalled under the lower highs trendline and fully retraced. Late NY is now compressing between the 0.5656 range low and the 0.5662 range top, RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 triple low confirms a fresh lower-low; the digest flags 0.5626 as the next reference
Close above the 0.5662 range top and reclaim of the 0.5669 asian low would ease the downside read
0.5675 spike high sits on the lower highs trendline, an area to watch for rejection or break
Trump-Xi summit headlines into Asia session could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5684 London high; 0.5650 low tested twice in NY.
NY session broke below the London chop at the 0.5665 breakdown level as firmer US claims, home sales and yields lifted the USD, printing the 0.5650 double low twice. The spike to 0.5675 failed and set a lower high. Late NY price is compressing between the 0.5656 minor low and the 0.5662 bounce high, just under the fib 50% of that last leg.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 bounce high and the 0.5665 breakdown level would put the 0.5675 lower high back in play
Failure at the 0.5650 double low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5626 area
Loss of the 0.5656 minor low would put the double low back under test
Trump-Xi summit headlines could jolt the range in either direction
Fed Williams speaks Fri 09:15 UTC; US durables and UoM follow at 12:30 and 14:00 UTC
Lower highs from London high; double test of 0.5650 low.
London faded from a 0.5684 London high through the 0.5669 Asian range low. Firmer US yields after strong claims data extended the slide to 0.5650 in NY. A headline spike to 0.5675 fully reversed near the 0.618–0.786 fib retrace, and 0.5650 held a second test, forming a double btm; price now sits near 0.5657 below both EMAs in late NY.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56617, 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 double btm confirms a lower low and opens the 0.5600 psych floor
Reclaim of the 0.5662 pivot high, then the 0.5675 spike high, would complete the double btm and break the falling trendline from the London high
Trump-Xi summit headlines today/Fri can trigger spikes like the 0.5675 move
US durables and UoM inflation expectations Fri 12:30–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; NY double low at 0.5650, 0.5650–0.5675 range.
London slid below the 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range from the 0.5684 london high, and NY extended to a double low at 0.5650 as firm US claims and 5%+ yields kept USD bid. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.5675 spike high retraced about 72% of the drop and was rejected under the lower-high line. Late NY is holding 0.5650–0.5675, with the 0.5662 bounce high capping, RSI(14) near 50 and price just below EMA20.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 double low resumes the downtrend and exposes 0.5626 next support
M15 close above the 0.5662 bounce high puts the 0.5675 spike high and lower-high line back in play
Close above 0.5684 london high breaks the lower-high line and voids the downtrend read
Trump-Xi summit headlines (today/Fri) could trigger another spike like 16:15 UTC
Lower highs from 0.5684 London high; late-NY range 0.5650–0.5662 after a failed spike to 0.5675.
London capped at the 0.5684 london high and slipped through the 0.5669 Asian low, then strong US claims extended the slide to the 0.5650 triple low. The 16:15 UTC NY spike to the 0.5675 spike high was fully rejected. Late NY now sits at 0.5657 below both EMAs, pinned under the 0.5662 micro high with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5650 triple low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5626 as next support
M15 close above the 0.5662 micro high puts the 0.5675 spike high and 38.2–50% fib zone back in play
Break of the descending trendline and the 0.5684 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read during Asia
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 0.5650 · RSI 46 · price 0.56608
Lower highs from the London high; 0.5650 base tested three times.
Lower highs from the 0.5684 London high carried the pair to 0.5650 after the US claims and home sales beats. The NY spike to 0.5675 was rejected near the 61.8% of the London decline, and 0.5650 held a third test at 18:00 UTC. Price is now 0.5661 in late NY, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 session low exposes next support at 0.5626
Close above the 0.5675 spike high breaks the lower highs line; 0.5686 asian high sits above
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 46 · price 0.5658
Asian range broken lower; 0.5650 base tested three times.
NZD/USD broke below the Asian low at 0.5669 after the US claims beat, extending to a 0.5650 session low. A 15:45 UTC spike to 0.5675 was fully rejected, and the lower-highs line from the 0.5684 London high still caps. Price is now late NY, sitting just above a 0.5650 base tested three times.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5626 prior supp
Reclaim of the 0.5669 asian low and a close above the 0.5675 spike high breaks the lower-highs line
Trump-Xi summit headlines could jolt the pair outside the 0.5650–0.5675 band
Fri 12:30 UTC US durable goods is the next scheduled USD risk
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 41 · price 0.56555
Lower highs and lower lows; spike high rejected, pressing session low.
Firm US claims and new home sales drove NY below the 0.5666 London low to a 0.5650 session low, tagged twice. The spike high at 0.5675 met the lower-high trendline and fully faded. Late NY, price sits 5 pips above the session low with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR about 6 pips.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5650 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5626 range floor
Reclaim of 0.5666 london low, then 0.5675 spike high, breaks the lower-high trendline read
A move above 0.5684 london high clears the day's lower-high structure
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high; day low 0.5650 holding after failed spike.
London faded from the 0.5684 London high and NY extended the slide to a 0.5650 day low after the US claims and new home sales beats, tapped twice. The 16:15 UTC spike to 0.5675 stalled near the 72% fib retrace and has fully faded. Price sits at 0.5658 late in NY, below the 0.5664 broken low, with the lower highs trendline intact and RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5650 day low extends the lower-high sequence toward 0.5626 interim sup
Reclaim of the 0.5664 broken low and the lower highs trendline (~0.5673) would neutralise the fade from the 0.5675 spike high
Break above the 0.5684 London high invalidates the lower-high structure
Trump-Xi summit headlines remain a spike risk after NY close
London-to-NY lower-high chain; post-London spike to 0.5675 rejected, price back near 0.5664.
London sold off from the 0.5684 session high through the Asian range and based twice at the 0.5650 session low. After London close, a sharp spike to 0.5675 retraced about 74% of that drop on the london fib and was rejected, a lower high under the trendline. Price is back near 0.5664 above the 0.5662 swing low and below EMA20 and EMA50, with USD firm after strong jobless claims and no tariff news from the Trump-Xi meeting.
Support: 0.56617, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5675 spike high breaks the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5662 swing low exposes the 0.5650 session low
Recovery toward the 0.5684 session high would negate the London sell-off read
Trump-Xi summit headlines could jolt the pair outside normal ATR (~6 pips)
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, squeezed off the lows · RSI 51 · price 0.5668
Lower highs from London high, rebound stalling at 61.8%.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 0.5650 day low, tested twice, as the US claims and new home sales beats kept USD bid. A sharp squeeze off the day low met rejection at the 0.5675 spike high, just past the 61.8% retrace of the London high to day low leg. Late in the NY session price is back at the 50% level near 0.5668, holding above the 0.5666 rebound low.
Support: 0.5666, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 spike high opens a retest of the 0.5684 london high
Failure to hold the 0.5666 rebound low puts the 0.5650 day low back in play
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read outside scheduled data
Lower highs from 0.5684 London high; double low at 0.5650, bounce stalling below 0.5675.
NZDUSD bled from the 0.5684 London high through the 0.5665 prior floor as strong US claims and new home sales kept USD bid, printing a double low at 0.5650 during NY hours. A 16-pip bar after London close reached the 0.5675 bounce high, about 73% of the drop, before a rejection there. Price is back at the 50% fib near 0.5667, sitting on the EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5684, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5665 prior floor reopens the 0.5650 double low
Acceptance above the 0.5675 bounce high puts the 0.5684 London high and 0.5700 psych back in play
Trump-Xi summit headlines into the Asia session could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high 0.5684 broken by 16:15 UTC spike off 0.5650 double low.
Beats in US claims and new home sales extended the London-NY slide to a 0.5650 session low, tested twice. A 16-pip bar at 16:15 UTC then broke the lower-highs line and reclaimed the 0.5670 pivot, stalling at the 61.8% retrace just under the 0.5675 spike high.
Support: 0.5670, 0.5665, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.56842, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5670 pivot puts the bounce at risk and exposes the fib 38.2 near 0.5665
Clearance of the 0.5675 spike high opens the London high at 0.5684, then the 0.5700 round number
Failure at 0.5650 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read in thin late-NY trade
Lower highs from 0.5684, double low at 0.5650, spike back above 0.5665.
London faded the 0.5684 high into a chain of lower highs. The NY session broke the 0.5665 range floor to a double low at 0.5650 as US claims and home sales beat. A 25-pip spike at 16:15 UTC reclaimed 0.5665 and cleared the descending line, and price is now stalling at the 0.5675 spike high, just above the 61.8% retrace.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 0.5665 range floor negates the spike and puts the 0.5650 double low back in focus
M15 close above the 0.5675 spike high opens the 0.5686 day high and the 0.5700 round number
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read after London close
London range 0.5666–0.5684 broken lower in NY; double low at 0.5650, rebound into the breakdown zone.
The 12:30 UTC US claims beat pushed NZD through the london low at 0.5666. It then fell from the 0.5675 NY high to a session low at 0.5650, which buyers defended twice. After London close price has recovered to the 50% fib of the NY selloff near 0.5662, sitting on EMA20 and just above yday NY low 0.5660, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 0.5666 puts price back inside the London range and neutralises the breakdown
Failure to hold yday NY low 0.5660 and a break of the 0.5650 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Rejection at the 61.8% of the NY selloff fib (~0.5666) keeps the NY high at 0.5675 as the lower-high cap
Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high; NY range break to 0.5650 double low.
Lower highs have run since the 0.5684 London high. NY broke the 0.5666 London low after firm US claims and new home sales, and the drop carried to a double low at 0.5650. The late-NY bounce is capped just under the 0.5661 breakdown, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5661, 0.5666, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5666 London low returns price to the prior range
Failure to hold the 0.5650 double low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5626
Rejection at the 0.5661 breakdown keeps the lower-highs trendline sequence intact
Late Trump-Xi headlines could jolt risk-sensitive NZD during thin post-NY hours
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late NY · RSI 31 · price 0.56538
Lower highs since the London high; breakdown below the Asian range and yesterday's low.
Firm US claims and new home sales extended the London fade from the 0.5684 London high. NY broke the Asian range floor near 0.5669 and the early-July low at 0.5671, then dropped to a 0.5650 session low that has held on two tests. The last lower high sits at 0.5661 and RSI(14) is near 31.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5661, 0.5671, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes next support at 0.5626
A reclaim of the 0.5661 lower high, then the 0.5671 july low, would break the lower-highs sequence
Trump-Xi headlines remain a risk into the NY close; a constructive tariff read could squeeze the pair back toward the 0.5684 london high
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 31 · price 0.56527
Broke below Asian/London range; lower highs and lower lows since 0.5684.
NY session broke the 0.5665 London low and yesterday's 0.5660 prior low after beats in US jobless claims and new home sales, extending to a 0.5650 session low along a line of lower highs from 0.5684. RSI(14) is near 31 and the bounce off 0.5650 is stalling below the 0.5660 breakdown, with the 0.5675 NY high capping.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56655, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.5660 prior low keeps the breakdown intact; a reclaim of the 0.5665 London low negates the range break
An M15 close under the 0.5650 session low opens the path toward the 0.5600 range floor
Retrace of the NY selloff fib: 50% sits near 0.5663, and a close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.5675 NY high shifts the read to range
Trump-Xi headlines during NY hours could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended into NY session · RSI 29 · price 0.56523
Range break lower, lower highs since London high.
NY session broke the Asia–London range floor near 0.5664 after the US jobless claims beat. The drop reached a 0.5650 session low, with RSI(14) near 29. Lower highs from the 0.5684 London high down to the 0.5675 lower high remain intact below the 0.5686 Asian high.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5664 range floor turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5650 session low exposes the next level at 0.5626
A move through the 0.5675 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Trump-Xi talks headlines could materially shift this read into London close
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in NY · RSI 35 · price 0.56593
Lower highs from London; London range floor broken during NY hours.
Firm US claims (197K) kept USD bid into NY. The session broke the London range floor near 0.5665 and took out the 0.5660 prior low, printing a 0.5657 session low. Lower highs at 0.5684 and 0.5675 frame the move, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.56565, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56604, 0.5665, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 0.5665 range floor would turn the NY breakdown into a false break
Acceptance back above the 0.5660 prior low would signal the break is losing traction
Failure to hold the 0.5657 session low exposes the 0.5650 round number
A close above the 0.5675 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Trump-Xi headlines during NY hours could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending in NY · RSI 27 · price 0.56569
Lower highs since London high, range base broken.
Supply capped the London high at 0.5684. A string of lower highs followed, and the 0.5665 range base gave way during NY hours. The drop took out the prior low at 0.5660 on firm US claims and new home sales beats, and price is now sitting on the session low at 0.5657 with RSI(14) near 27 and ATR around 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.56565, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56604, 0.56655, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5660 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Round number 0.5650 is the next support; failure there exposes 0.5626
Reclaim of the 0.5665 range base, the 38.2% fib of the London drop, weakens the downtrend read
Lower highs trendline from 0.5684 runs toward the 0.5675 NY high; a break above it invalidates the lower-high sequence
Trump-Xi headlines today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high; Asian range low broken in NY.
London faded from its 0.5684 london high, just under the Asian high, leaving a lower-highs line through the 0.5675 ny high. Firm US claims (197K vs 201K) fed the NY slide through the 0.5664 asian low and yesterday's 0.5660 low, with RSI(14) near 29 and the 0.5650 round number next below.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5664 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5650 round number exposes 0.5626 next support
Close above the 0.5675 ny high breaks the lower-highs line; 0.5684 london high caps above
Trump-Xi talks headline risk today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high, Asian range broken lower.
London was rejected at the 0.5684 london high, just under the Asian high, and the pair has since slipped below the 0.5669 asian low and the 0.5671 early-July low, printing lower highs into a 0.5675 ny high after the firm US claims print (197K vs 201K). Mid-NY, price sits at 0.5663 near the session low. RSI(14) is at 36, soft but not oversold. The 0.5660 prior low from yesterday's NY session is the next reference below.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5675 ny high breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 0.5660 prior low opens the 0.5650 round number
Recovery back inside the Asian range above the 0.5669 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Trump-Xi summit headlines today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high, Asian range low broken, fresh NY lows.
London stalled at the 0.5684 london high, just shy of the Asian top, and the slide broke the Asian range low near 0.5669. The 197K claims beat at the NY open kept USD bid. Price is pinned just under the 0.5671 july low, with a 0.5664 ny low and the NY high capped at 0.5675.
Support: 0.56637, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5664 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5660 prior low
Reclaiming the 0.5671 july low and a close above the 0.5675 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
A move back above 0.5684 london high voids the intraday down-leg read
Trump-Xi headlines and 14:00 UTC US New Home Sales could jolt USD this hour
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in a tight band · RSI 46 · price 0.56669
Lower highs capped near 0.5675 since London; NY printed a fresh session low.
London faded from 0.5684 through the Asian range, below the 0.5686 Asian high and 0.5669 Asian low. The bounce after the 197K claims beat stalled at the 0.5675 lower highs before NY set a new low at 0.5664. Price is now pinned just under the 0.5671 July low. Momentum is flat (RSI ~46) and ATR(14) is ~4.5 pips, with yesterday's 0.5660 prior low the next reference below.
Support: 0.56637, 0.56604, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5675, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5664 NY low exposes the 0.5660 prior low, then the 0.5650 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5671 July low and a break of the 0.5675 lower highs trendline would neutralise the grind lower
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and unscheduled Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 39 · price 0.56657
Lower highs capping a 0.5665–0.5675 box, floor under test at NY open.
London faded from the 0.5684 London high into a 0.5665–0.5675 box with lower highs. After the US jobless claims beat, NY hours opened with a fresh session low at 0.5665, back below the early-July low at 0.5671. The Asian low at 0.5664 and the prior low at 0.5660 sit just beneath, and RSI(14) near 39 is not stretched.
Support: 0.56647, 0.56635, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 prior low confirms a range break and opens 0.5650
Recovery above the 0.5675 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5671 july low would turn the break below it into a false break
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
London lower highs into a 0.5666–0.5674 range; double bottom at the floor.
London showed rejection just under the asia high at 0.5686, then slid through the asia low at 0.5669 and has based at the 0.5666 london low since, with the claims beat at 12:30 UTC retesting that floor without a break. Early NY has price pressing the 0.5674 range top at the 38.2% of the London drop fib, with EMA20 and EMA50 flattening just beneath.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5666, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 range top clears the double-bottom neckline and exposes the London drop fib 50–61.8% at 0.5675–0.5677, then the asia high
Loss of the asia low at 0.5669 (near the early-July low) and then the 0.5666 london low reopens the 0.5660 wed low
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC), New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since London open · RSI 47 · price 0.56703
Compression between 0.5665 session low and falling lower highs.
London failed at the 0.5684 london high, just under the 0.5686 asian high, then broke the Asian range low. Since then price has compressed between the 0.5665 session low and a falling line of lower highs, with the latest lower high at 0.5674. It is pinned near 0.5670 with RSI(14) neutral at ~47 and price flat on EMA20. The 12:30 GMT jobless claims print left little mark, and the pair holds above the 0.5660 prior low from Wednesday's US PMI selloff.
Support: 0.56655, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56743, 0.56842, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5665 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5660 prior low
M15 close above the 0.5674 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 0.5684 london high puts the 0.5686 asian high and the top of the Asian range back in play
Fed's Hammack (12:50 GMT) and Paulson (13:00 GMT) at the NY open, plus Trump-Xi headlines, could break the compression
Lower highs since London open, trading below Asian range low.
The London drop from the 0.5684 London high broke the Asian range low near 0.5669. Since then, lower highs have capped near 0.5675 and the London low sits at 0.5666, with price compressing just above yesterday's 0.5660 PMI low on a firm USD. US jobless claims land in the current bar with ATR at only ~4 pips, so the compression is unlikely to hold through the release.
Support: 0.56655, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56745, 0.56842
What it said to watch
US jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson (12:50/13:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5666 london low exposes the 0.5660 pmi low
Reclaim of 0.5675 lower highs breaks the London sequence; the 0.5684 london high is the next reference
Trump-Xi summit headlines are live risk for a sharp NZD squeeze
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.56693
London lower highs capping price above a flat floor at 0.5666; Asian range low broken.
After the ~1% slide on Wednesday's US PMI beats, London faded from the 0.5684 session high and broke below the 0.5669 Asian range low. Price is now pinned between a 0.5666 london low, tested five times, and a descending line of lower highs, trading back under the 0.5671 july low into the NY open.
Support: 0.5666, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5684
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack at 12:50 and Paulson at 13:00, are likely to break the 0.5666–0.5674 compression
An M15 close below the 0.5666 london low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 0.5660 prior low
Recovery above the 0.5671 july low and the lower-highs trendline shifts the read back to a range under the 0.5684 session high
Trump-Xi headlines today could drive a sharp squeeze in risk-sensitive NZD
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 0.56675
Broke below Asian range; lower-high chain from 0.5684, pressing 0.5666 London low.
London faded from the 0.5684 London high and broke the 0.5669 Asian low. Price is now pressing the 0.5666 London low under a descending trendline of lower highs, with RSI(14) at 39 and not stretched. The move extends Wednesday's USD bid on the strong US flash PMIs. Yesterday's 0.5660 prior low is the next reference below.
Support: 0.56665, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56693, 0.56743, 0.56842
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson at the NY open could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5660 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.5674 lower high and the trendline breaks the London lower-high chain
Asian low at 0.5669 now overhead — area to watch for rejection
Trump-Xi headlines are a two-way risk for the session
Lower highs from London high, tight base above 0.5666.
London faded the 0.5684 London high and broke under the Asian range, printing a London low at 0.5666 as USD stayed bid after yesterday's hot US PMIs. Price has since compressed at 0.5667–0.5674 around the early-July low (0.5671), with each bounce capped by a lower high and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.56665, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56743, 0.56842
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack/Paulson, could break the 0.5667–0.5674 base either way
M15 close below 0.5666 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the prior low at 0.5660
Close above 0.5674 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Trump-Xi headlines are an unscheduled risk to the London high at 0.5684
11:02 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs over a flat base · RSI 39 · price 0.5671
London broke under the Asian range; lower highs pressing a 0.5667 base.
The drop after yesterday's hot US PMIs set a prior low at 0.5660. London stalled at 0.5684, under the Asian high, then slipped below the Asian range. Price is now mid-London, capped by a descending run of lower highs (latest 0.5673) and pressing a flat london low near 0.5667, right on the early-July low.
Support: 0.56665, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56732, 0.56842, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5667 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5660 prior low
Close above the 0.5673 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 0.5684 london high, then the 0.5700 round number
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and Fedspeak from Hammack/Paulson at the NY open could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi talks headlines are a live risk for a squeeze off the base
Mid-to-late London. Supply capped the pair at 0.5684, just under the 0.5686 asia high, and it has since printed lower highs down to 0.5673. It slipped below the 0.5669 Asian range low and has tested the 0.5666 london low three times. The pair is still carrying the post-PMI USD bid that took it to the 0.5660 ny low yesterday, and RSI(14) at 36 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.56665, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5673, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5666 london low exposes the 0.5660 ny low
Close above the 0.5673 lower highs breaks the London sequence; 0.5686 asia high negates the downtrend read
A move through 0.5686 would put the 0.5700 psych level back in view
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 0.56673
LH/LL sequence below the broken Asian range low; price pressing the session low.
London faded from the 0.5684 london high just under the Asian range top, then broke the 0.5669 asian low and put in lower highs along a falling trendline. The bounce stalled at the 0.5673 lower high, the 38.2% fib, and price is now pressing the 0.5667 session low as yesterday's PMI-driven USD bid holds. Below sit the thin 0.5664 rollover low and the 0.5660 pmi low.
Support: 0.56665, 0.56635, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56693, 0.56732, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56665 session low opens the 0.56635 rollover low and 0.56604 pmi low
Reclaim of the 0.56693 asian low, then a close above the 0.56732 lower high, breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi talks could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 43 · price 0.56697
LH/LL chain from 0.5684; Asian low broken, retested from below.
London faded the 0.5684 session high, broke the Asian low at 0.5669 and printed a 0.56665 session low as USD holds its post-PMI bid. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.5673, under the descending line of lower highs. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) ~43.
Support: 0.56665, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56693, 0.56758, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56665 session low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 0.5660 prior low
Recovery above the 0.5669 Asian low and the 0.5676 lower high breaks the descending line and neutralises the London sell-off read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and today's Trump-Xi talks could materially shift this read
Range 0.5660–0.5686 since US PMI drop; London swept Asian low.
London faded from the 0.5684 london high, cut through the 0.5669 asian low to a 0.56665 session low, then reclaimed it to sit on the early-July low near 0.5671. Price is under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 47, and the pair remains inside the band between the 0.5660 pmi low and the 0.5686 asian high. That band was set after Wednesday's US PMI beat, with lower highs capping the upside.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56665, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56754, 0.56842, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5669 asian low and the 0.56665 session low turns the sweep into a lower-low
Recovery above the 0.5675 fib 50% of the London drop puts the 0.5684 london high back in play
A break of the 0.5660 pmi low exits the range to the downside
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Hammack/Paulson and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.5684 under Asian high; Asian range broken lower in London.
London was rejected at 0.5684, a lower high under the 0.5686 Asian high. The London drop then broke the Asian low at 0.5669 and the 0.5671 early-July low, with the USD bid from yesterday's PMI beats still in place. RSI(14) is near 34, price is holding just above the 0.5666 session low, and yesterday's 0.5660 prior low is the next reference.
Support: 0.56665, 0.56604, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56693, 0.56842, 0.5686
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5669 asian low negates the range break
Failure at the 0.5660 prior low exposes psych 0.5650
Close above the 0.5684 london high breaks the lower-high sequence
Lower high at 0.5684 under the Asian high, testing range floor.
After yesterday's PMI-driven drop to the 0.5660 prior low, NZDUSD has held a 0.5669–0.5686 range. London saw rejection at the 0.5684 london high, a lower high under the 0.5686 Asian high, and has since slipped back under the ema20 and the 0.5671 july low. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib and near the 0.5668 london low, RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 0.56682, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5668 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.5660 prior low
Recovery back above the 0.5671 july low and the ema20 near 0.5675 returns price to mid-range
Close above the 0.5684 london high and lower-high trendline invalidates the lower-high read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range; London lower high, now testing range floor.
London capped at a 0.5684 session high, just under the 0.5686 Asian high, and the pair has since slipped back to the 0.5669 Asian low. That floor also marks the 61.8% retrace of the rebound from yesterday's post-PMI 0.5660 prior low. RSI(14) is near 43 and price trades below both EMAs, with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 Asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.5660 prior low
Close above the 0.5686 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings 0.5700 psych into view
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Fed's Hammack and Paulson, and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5669–0.5686; London rejected below the Asian high, lower highs forming.
The strong US flash PMIs knocked NZDUSD to a 0.5660 pmi low overnight. Asia then ranged 0.5669–0.5686. London's push stalled at 0.5684, a lower high under the asian high, and price has dropped back to 0.5673, the 50% fib of the recovery. It sits below ema20 (~0.5676) and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and holding just above the asian low at 0.5670, next to the early-July low at 0.5671.
Support: 0.5670, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.5684, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5670 breaks the range floor and exposes the pmi low at 0.5660
Reclaiming ema20 at ~0.5676 and closing above the london high at 0.5684 / asian high at 0.5686 invalidates the lower-highs rejection read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) and today's Trump-Xi talks could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5669–0.5686 intact; London rejected near range top.
London pushed to a london high at 0.5684, was rejected just under the asian high at 0.5686, then fell back to the london low at 0.5672. Price sits near the 50% of the rebound fib from yesterday's PMI-driven prior low at 0.5660, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45. The asian low at 0.5669, alongside the early-July low at 0.5671, is the floor in focus.
Support: 0.5672, 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56842, 0.5686
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5669 breaks the range lower and exposes the prior low at 0.5660
M15 close above the asian high at 0.5686 invalidates the London rejection read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Fedspeak and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Sideways after PMI sell-off, below EMAs · RSI 47 · price 0.56733
Range 0.5670–0.5686 capping since Asia; London rejected at the top.
London stalled at the 0.5684 london high, just under the 0.5686 asian high. The 08:15 UTC bar gave back the morning gain toward the 0.5670 asian low, and price is back below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 47. Structure is still a tight range above the 0.5660 prior low printed after yesterday's US PMI sell-off, with the pair holding in the lower part of that pmi sell-off retracement.
Support: 0.5670, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5670 asian low (also the early-July low zone) exposes the 0.5660 prior low
M15 close above the 0.5686 asian high breaks the range and opens the 0.5700 pivot
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC plus Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Compressing inside Asian range, lows stepping up under 0.5684-0.5686.
The strong US flash PMIs drove the NY-session slide to the 0.5660 ny low. The pair has since recovered into a 0.5669-0.5686 Asian range, and early London has twice capped at the 0.5684 london high while the london low at 0.5673 held the 50% fib of that recovery. RSI(14) sits near 57 and ATR is around 5 pips, so price is compressed ahead of US claims.
Support: 0.56735, 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asian high breaks the Asian range top and opens the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5673 london low and 0.5669 asian low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5660 ny low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi headlines (timing unspecified) could force a break of the Asian range either side
Higher lows since 0.5660 under a flat 0.5684-86 cap.
The strong US PMI prints and a poor 5y auction knocked NZDUSD to a 0.5660 swing low. Price has since built higher lows through the asian low at 0.5669 and the london low at 0.5673 along a rising trendline. Early London was rejected at 0.5684, just under the 0.5686 asian high and the 50% fib of the PMI drop, and the pair remains inside the Asian range.
Support: 0.56735, 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 0.5700 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5673 london low turns focus back to the 0.5669 asian low and the 0.5660 swing low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines remain an unscheduled swing factor
Early London is pressing the Asian high at 0.5686. The push comes after a chain of higher lows off the prior low at 0.5660, set in Wednesday's US PMI-driven selloff. Price sits above both EMAs, with the rising trendline from the Asian low intact and RSI(14) at 63, not stretched.
Support: 0.56735, 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.57058
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 Asian high opens the 0.5700 psych level and the 0.5706 prior high
Loss of the 0.5674 london low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5669 asian low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are an unscheduled swing risk for the pair
NZD/USD has based since the US PMI-driven drop to the 0.5660 pmi low, printing higher lows along a rising trendline, the latest at 0.5673. The London open is trading inside the Asian range (0.5669–0.5686) and is capped at the 0.5682 session high. Price sits about 40% back into the PMI drop fib, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) around 4.4 pips, a compression rather than a trend.
Support: 0.5673, 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asian high breaks the range and brings the 0.5700 round number into view
Loss of the 0.5673 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5669 asian low, then the 0.5660 pmi low
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC), jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Range after post-PMI selloff · RSI 52 · price 0.56772
Sideways 0.5669–0.5686 since the post-PMI low at 0.5660.
The US PMI beat knocked NZDUSD to a 0.5660 pmi low, and it has ranged since. The Asian range runs 0.5669–0.5686. A pre-London push to the 0.5682 early high faded back toward the 0.5673 range floor. London opens with price at 0.5677, on the 38.2% line of the pmi drop fib, and ATR near 4 pips shows compressed ranges.
Support: 0.5673, 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 asian low reopens the 0.5660 pmi low
Close above the 0.5686 asian high (near the 50–61.8% zone of the pmi drop fib) brings the 0.5700 round number into view
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range
Trump-Xi summit headlines could jolt NZD in either direction
07:02 UTC
Sideways after post-PMI selloff · RSI 49 · price 0.5675
Asian range 0.5669–0.5686 with lower highs, parked mid-range into London open.
The US PMI beat drove the slide to the 0.5660 NY low, retracing the PMI drop from 0.5695. Since then price has held a 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range, and the early push to 0.5682 was rejected back to 0.5675 at London open. RSI(14) sits near 49 and ATR is about 4 pips, so conditions are compressed with no directional impulse on this timeframe.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5669 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.5660 ny low
A close above the 0.5682 early high and 0.5686 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5700 psych level above
The PMI drop fib 50% near 0.5677 is the mid-range pivot; price is oscillating around it
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could expand the range
Trump-Xi summit headlines today are the main risk to the range read
06:46 UTC
Sideways after post-PMI selloff · RSI 58 · price 0.56794
Inside Asian range 0.5669–0.5686, higher lows off 0.5660.
The strong US PMIs knocked the pair to a 0.5660 PMI low. Late in the Asia session it sits mid-range inside the 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range, where the pre-London push met rejection at 0.5682, the fib 61.8 retrace of the PMI drop. The 0.5672 range base held repeatedly overnight.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts 0.5700 psych in play
Loss of the 0.5672 range base and 0.5669 asian low reopens the 0.5660 pmi low
London open, Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are the swing factor for the Asian range
06:31 UTC
Rebounding off overnight base, testing upper range · RSI 58 · price 0.56803
0.5669–0.5686 overnight range; late-Asia push toward range top.
The US PMI beat drove the NY-session slide to a 0.5660 NY low. Price then held a 0.5669 swing low and a 0.5672 Asia base overnight. A late-Asia bar lifted price out of that base and stalled at 0.5682, the 61.8% fib of the PMI leg, just under the 0.5686 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 58 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 Asian high opens the 0.5700 round number
Rejection at the 61.8% fib and a close back below the 0.5672 Asia base returns price to the range
Loss of the 0.5669 swing low exposes the 0.5660 NY low
London open in ~30 min, Williams 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are the main swing factor for NZD today
06:16 UTC
Range after NY sell-off, pressing range top · RSI 58 · price 0.56803
Asian range 0.5669–0.5686, higher lows since 01:45 UTC.
After the PMI-driven NY drop to the 0.5660 NY low, NZDUSD has held a 0.5672–0.5678 range floor for most of Asia, with lows rising off 0.5669. A late-Asia push has tagged the 61.8% fib of the NY drop at 0.5682 ahead of London open, still below the 0.5686 Asian high, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5686, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 Asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.5690 breakdown area in view
Rejection at the 61.8% fib that sends price back under the 0.5672 range floor restores the range read
Failure to hold the 0.5669 Asian low exposes the 0.5660 NY low
Williams at 08:10 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could shift this read
Tight late-Asia range inside the 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range.
After yesterday's beat on the US PMIs knocked the pair to a day low of 0.5660, the bounce to the Asian high at 0.5686 has retraced to its 50% level near 0.5673. Late Asia has compressed into a 7-pip band beneath the 0.5679 range top, with EMAs flat overhead and ATR near 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 asian low exposes the 0.5660 day low
Close above the 0.5679 range top reopens the 0.5686 asian high, with 0.5700 psych beyond
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range
Trump-Xi summit headlines are the main risk for a range break
Tight 0.5670–0.5679 box inside the Asian range, above the NY low.
The strong US PMI beat drove the NY-session slide to the ny low at 0.5660. Asia rejected the asian high at 0.5686 and has since held a 9-pip box between the asian low at 0.5670, near the 61.8% fib of the NY-low-to-Asian-high bounce, and the box top at 0.5679, with ATR(14) under 4 pips late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.5670, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5670 breaks the box and reopens the ny low at 0.5660
Close above the box top at 0.5679 shifts focus to the asian high at 0.5686, then round number 0.5700
London open in ~90 min is likely to resolve the compression
Trump-Xi summit headlines, Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-Asia band 0.5670–0.5679 inside 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range.
The strong US flash PMIs drove the 13:45 UTC breakdown from 0.5695, and the NY low printed at 0.5660. Asia bounced to an Asian high of 0.5686 before fading into a 0.5670–0.5679 band top. Price sits at the 50% fib of that bounce with lower highs capping, and the post-PMI low at 0.5668 sits just under the Asian low. It is late Asia ahead of the London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5668, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5686, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 Asian low exposes the 0.5660 NY low
Break of the lower-highs line and the 0.5679 band top reopens the 0.5686 Asian high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are the swing factor for the Asian range
Late-Asia range 0.5669–0.5686, lower highs off the Asia high.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC pushed the pair through 0.5700 to a 0.5660 NY low. Since then it has chopped inside a 0.5669–0.5686 Asian range, with the Asia high rejected and lower highs capping near 0.5679. Price now sits at the 38.2% retrace of the PMI drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and both EMAs flat just overhead; there is no setup in play into London.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 asia low exposes the 0.5660 ny low and the 0.5650 area
Close above the 0.5686 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the path to the 0.5700 round number
Trump-Xi summit headlines, Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5669–0.5686 above NY swing low, tightening.
The US PMI beat drove the NY-session drop from 0.5695 to a 0.5660 swing low. Since then the Asia session has held a 0.5669–0.5686 range, with a rejection at the Asian high, and price is now compressing near 0.5675 under a 0.5679 local cap, around the 38.2% of the PMI drop fib, ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. ATR(14) is about 5 pips and RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 asian low, near the 0.5671 level, exposes the 0.5660 swing low
Close above the 0.5679 local cap and then the 0.5686 asian high reopens the 0.5700 round number, the 61.8% of the PMI drop fib sits near 0.5682
Williams 08:10 UTC, then jobless claims 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could break the Asian range compression
London open in roughly 2.5h is the first test of the Asian range edges
04:16 UTC
Sideways after post-PMI selloff · RSI 47 · price 0.56751
Tight Asia range 0.5670–0.5686 with lower highs.
The US PMI beat drove a flush to the 0.5660 day low during NY hours. The rebound since is capped: late in the Asia session, the 0.5686 asian high was rejected, lower highs near 0.5679 are forming and the 0.5670 asian low is holding. Price sits flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 47, and the range is compressing ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5670, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5670 asian low exposes the 0.5660 day low
Close above the 0.5679 lower high and 0.5686 asian high reopens the 0.5700 psych pivot
Hold above the 61.8% of the pmi rebound (~0.5670) keeps the range read intact
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
Sideways 0.5660–0.5686 box after PMI-driven drop, higher lows.
The US PMI beat drove the pair from 0.5711 to a 0.5660 NY low, and price has since held a series of higher lows. Late in the Asia session, a spike to the 0.5686 asian high, the 50% retracement of that drop, was rejected. Price is back near 0.5675, mid-range between the 0.5669 asian low and 0.5686, with RSI flat near 50 and ATR around 5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asian high / 50% fib opens the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5669 asian low exposes the 0.5660 ny low and breaks the higher lows
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines today are a swing risk for NZD
Lower highs off the 0.5686 asian high, held above 0.5669 asian low.
The US PMI beat drove the NY leg down to the 0.5660 ny low. Late in the Asia session, price is sitting near the 50% level of the asian rally fib after a rejection at the 0.5686 asian high. The pullback held the 0.5669 asian low, lower highs are forming, and RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 asian low exposes the 0.5660 ny low
Close above the lower-highs line and 0.5686 asian high brings the 0.5700 psych pivot into view
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) are the next USD catalyst
Asian range 0.5669-0.5686 inside post-PMI rebound, lower high under 0.5700.
The rebound from the post-PMI low at 0.5660 was rejected at the 0.5686 Asian high, well short of the 0.5700 pivot. Price is back near the 38-50% zone of the recovery fib, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) flat at 51. Mid-Asia session, range still in development.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 Asian high reopens the 0.5700 pivot
Loss of the 0.5669 Asian low exposes the 0.5660 PMI low
Trump-Xi headlines today could break the Asian range either way
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could shift the read
03:16 UTC
Sideways after PMI-driven selloff · RSI 53 · price 0.5677
Asian range 0.5669–0.5686 above the PMI low.
The US PMI beat drove a 35-pip drop to the pmi low at 0.5660 during NY hours. Asia session has since ranged, and the spike to the asia high at 0.5686 after Australian jobs was rejected back to the 0.5669 swing low. Price sits mid-range at the 50% of the pmi drop fib, RSI(14) neutral near 53, with no directional setup in play.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asia high opens the 0.5700 psych pivot
Loss of the 0.5669 swing low puts the 0.5660 pmi low back in focus
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines today could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Sideways after post-PMI selloff · RSI 53 · price 0.56783
Range 0.5660–0.5686 beneath the broken 0.5700 floor.
NZD has held a 0.5660–0.5686 range since the strong US PMIs broke it below the 0.5700 prior floor during NY hours. The pmi low at 0.5660 capped the downside. The Asia session was rejected at the 0.5686 asia high and dipped to the 0.5669 asia low, and price now sits mid-range around the 0.618 fib with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asia high opens a retest of the 0.5700 prior floor
Failure to hold the 0.5669 asia low exposes the 0.5660 pmi low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the range read
Trump-Xi headlines Thursday are the main event risk for NZD
Asia rally rejected at 0.5686, rotating back into 0.5669–0.5686 range.
The US PMI beat drove NZD to a NY low of 0.5660. Asia bounced to an Asian high of 0.5686 but was rejected there, and the pullback held the asian low at 0.5669 near the 61.8% fib. Price sits mid-range at 0.5673, just under both EMAs, with RSI flat at 46.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5669 exposes the ny low at 0.5660
Close above the asian high at 0.5686 opens the 0.5700 psych level, the former range floor
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines today could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 0.5660–0.5686, Asian high rejected.
The beat on US flash PMIs knocked the pair through the 0.5700 range floor to a pmi low at 0.5660. It has since chopped in a 0.5660–0.5686 box. The Asia session ran to an asian high at 0.5686, near the 0.707 retracement of the PMI drop fib, and was rejected back to 0.5673 just above the 0.5669 asian low. Price is hugging EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 46, so no directional impulse is in play.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 asian low reopens the 0.5660 pmi low
Reclaim of the 0.5686 asian high puts the broken 0.5700 range floor back in focus
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines today could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce rejected · RSI 41 · price 0.56707
Lower high at 0.5686, pressing on the Asia low.
The beat on US PMIs knocked NZD below 0.5700 to a 0.5660 NY low. The Asia session bounce stalled at a 0.5686 session high and fully reversed, leaving price on the 61.8% fib of the ny low–session high move near 0.5670, just above the Asia low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.56693, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 asia low opens a retest of the 0.5660 ny low
Reclaim of the 0.5686 session high negates the rejection, with the 0.5700 round number above
Holding the 61.8% fib near 0.5670 keeps the Asia bounce structure intact
Williams at 08:10 UTC (~6h) and Trump-Xi headlines today could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Down after PMI break, now basing · RSI 45 · price 0.56743
Post-PMI range 0.5660–0.5686, Asian high rejected.
The hot US PMIs broke the 0.5700 floor during NY hours, and the drop found a pmi low at 0.5660. The Asian session rallied into 0.5686, the 50% retrace of the PMI drop, and was rejected; price is back at 0.5674 just above the 0.5671 asian low, below flattening EMAs.
Support: 0.5671, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 asian high reopens the 0.5700 broken floor
Break of the 0.5671 asian low exposes the 0.5660 pmi low
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
Trump-Xi headlines today are a risk swing factor for NZD
01:46 UTC
Recovering within a downtrend, momentum firming · RSI 59 · price 0.56811
Asia push above overnight range after PMI-driven NY low.
The hot US PMI prints drove NZD to a 0.5660 NY low. Early Asia has broken above the overnight 0.5671–0.5678 range. The move tagged 0.5686, the 50% fib of the 0.5712–0.5660 decline, where a wick rejection followed. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR is about 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5671, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5695, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 50% fib opens the pre-PMI high at 0.5695 and the 0.5700 round number
Slip back below the 0.5678 range top, then the 0.5671 asian low, re-exposes the 0.5660 ny low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi headlines today are a swing factor for NZD
Hot US PMIs knocked the pair to a 0.5660 NY low. The Asia session has since built rising support of higher lows off the 0.5663 rollover dip and cleared the 0.5678 neckline of a double bottom. Price is now pressing the 0.5682 Asia high, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the post-PMI drop, with RSI(14) at 61 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5671, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56819, 0.56841, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5684 pmi bounce high opens the 0.5700 psych level, now resistance
Rejection at the 0.5682 Asia high and a loss of the 0.5678 neckline weakens the double bottom read
Break below the 0.5671 higher low and rising support puts the 0.5660 NY low back in play
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift October Fed hike pricing and this read
Higher lows off 0.5660, Asian range high broken early Asia session.
The US PMI beat drove NZD/USD from 0.5695 to a 0.5660 low during NY hours. Early Asia has cleared the 0.5678 prior cap, with the 0.5671 Asian low a third higher low. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib near 0.5682, just under the 0.5684 bounce high, RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5671, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5695, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5684 bounce high opens the 0.5695 pre-PMI high and the 0.5700 round number
Slip back below the 0.5678 prior cap and the 0.5671 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5660 PMI low
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Thursday Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5660 NY low; Asian range 0.5671–0.5679 capping.
The US PMI beat knocked the pair from 0.5695 to the 0.5660 NY low. Early in the Asia session, price is pressing the asia high at 0.5679, which is also the 50% retracement of that drop. The next cap is the post-pmi hi at 0.5684, near the 61.8% level. Price sits above both EMAs, RSI(14) is neutral at 57 and ATR(14) is under 5 pips.
Support: 0.5671, 0.5660
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5684, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5684 post-pmi hi breaks the 61.8% cap and exposes the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5671 asia low puts the 0.5660 ny low back in play
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines Thursday could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into consolidation · RSI 45 · price 0.56725
Post-PMI lower low at 0.5660, Asia compressing below fib 50%.
NZDUSD dropped through the 0.5700 broken floor on the US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC. It printed a 0.5660 NY low late in the NY session and has since retraced to the 38.2–50% fib of the drop. The Asia session is compressing between 0.5671 and 0.5678, and RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 0.56712, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56784, 0.56841, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5678 asian high and fib 50% reopens the 0.5684 pmi bounce high, then the 0.5700 broken floor
Loss of the 0.5671 asian low exposes the 0.5660 ny low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 56 · price 0.56744
Post-PMI lower low at 0.5660, tight Asian range 0.5669–0.5678.
The US PMI beat at the NY open cracked the 0.5700 range floor, and the late-NY day low printed at 0.5660. Early Asia is holding between the asia low at 0.5669 and the asia high at 0.5678, which sits near the 50% fib of the PMI leg. Price is flat at EMA20, capped below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 0.56688, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56784, 0.56841, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5678 asia high and 50% fib opens the 0.5684 rebound high
Loss of the 0.5669 asia low re-exposes the 0.5660 day low
0.5700 range floor is now overhead resistance
Trump-Xi headlines Thursday and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift this read
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight range · RSI 48 · price 0.56723
Post-PMI lower low at 0.5660, now boxed 0.5664–0.5678.
The strong US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke the pair below the 0.5700 broken floor and extended the slide to a NY low at 0.5660. Since then the pair has held a 0.5664–0.5678 box into early Asia. The range high sits at the 50% retrace of the 0.5695–0.5660 drop and rejected price twice, while the pmi bounce high at 0.5684 marks the last lower high. RSI(14) is near 48 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the move has compressed below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56635, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56784, 0.56841, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5678 range high and the 0.5684 pmi bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
A loss of the 0.5664 rollover low exposes the 0.5660 ny low; a close below that resumes the lower-low chain
A reclaim of 0.5700 (broken floor) would turn it back into support
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines Thursday could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after PMI-driven leg lower · RSI 54 · price 0.56763
Lower highs from 0.5721; tight 0.5673–0.5678 range above 0.5660 day low.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove the pair through the 0.5700 broken floor to a day low of 0.5660 during NY hours. Since then it has held a 0.5673–0.5678 range into the early Asia session, with the range high capping and price pinned just under EMA50. ATR(14) near 4 pips reflects the thin post-NY tape.
Support: 0.56731, 0.56604
Resistance: 0.56784, 0.56838, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5678 range high puts the fib 38.2 at 0.5684 in play
Failure to hold the 0.5673 range low reopens the 0.5660 day low
0.5700 broken floor is the level that would mark a full retrace of the PMI break
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines Thursday could materially shift this read