NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 25 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Sideways after rejected NY spike · RSI 53 · price 0.56654
Late-NY compression inside 0.5664–0.5669 band.
NY spiked through the 0.5676 london high to a 0.5677 day high as USD eased on the oil slump. The false break was rejected, and the ny pullback to 0.5660 held the 78.6% of the NY spike fib. Into the weekly close price is flat on the EMA20 under the 0.5669 late ny cap, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56756, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 ny pullback low exposes the 0.5655 ny low and the 0.5650 asian low
Break above the 0.5669 late ny cap reopens the 0.5676 london high / 0.5677 day high rejection zone
Thin weekly-close liquidity; Monday reopen and RBA decision Sep 29 could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat into NY close · RSI 48 · price 0.56645
Late-NY compression 0.5660–0.5669 inside the 0.5650–0.5677 day range, lower highs since the 0.5677 spike.
London cleared the Asian range high to 0.5676. NY dipped to the ny low at 0.5655, then spiked to the 0.5677 session high as the USD eased on the oil slide, and that spike was rejected. Since then price has compressed between the 0.5660 ny pm low and the 0.5669 late ny high, sitting near the 61.8% of the NY spike fib and just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5660 ny pm low exposes the 0.5655 ny low and the 0.5650 asian low
Close above the 0.5669 late ny high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5677 session high
Thin liquidity after NY close into the weekend; RBA decision Sep 29 is the next event risk for the kiwi
20:17 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 0.56649
Late-NY range 0.5660–0.5669 inside day range 0.5650–0.5677.
Mid-NY spike from the NY low at 0.5655 to the day high at 0.5677 briefly cleared the London high, then was fully rejected. Price has since compressed between the 0.5660 pullback low and the late-NY cap at 0.5669, sitting near the 50–61.8% of the ny spike fib. The USD's oil-driven dip has not lifted the kiwi, and the Asian low at 0.5650 still marks the day floor.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 pullback low exposes the NY low at 0.5655 and the Asian low at 0.5650
Close above the late-NY cap at 0.5669 reopens the day high at 0.5677
Thin late-Friday liquidity; no scheduled data in the next 8h, next risk is the RBA on Sep 29
20:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing into Friday close · RSI 49 · price 0.56663
Lower highs from day high vs rising lows off NY low.
London broke the Asian range high at 0.56685 and stalled at 0.56756. NY dipped to the 0.56552 ny low, then spiked to a 0.56774 day high that was rejected. Late NY is now a tight range between the 0.56602 pullback low and the 0.56687 evening cap, with lower highs and rising lows, price sitting on both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 49. The USD dip on softer sentiment has not lifted the kiwi.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56774, 0.5670
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56687 evening cap breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 0.5670 psych level and the 0.56774 day high
Loss of the 0.56602 pullback low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.56552 ny low, then the 0.56502 asian low near the 0.5650 floor
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; weekend US-Iran headlines carry gap risk, and the RBA decision on Sep 29 is the next scheduled driver
19:47 UTC
Sideways, mid-range into late NY · RSI 50 · price 0.56679
Higher lows off 0.5660, capped at 0.5669.
NY spiked from the 0.5655 NY low to a 0.5677 day high as the USD eased, then saw a rejection back to the 0.5660 pullback low. Since then higher lows are forming, with the 0.5665 swing low holding, while the 0.5669 recent cap blocks progress late in the NY session. RSI(14) is neutral near 50.
Support: 0.5665, 0.56602, 0.56552
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 recent cap exposes the 0.5677 day high
Break of the 0.5665 swing low and the higher lows line points back to the 0.5660 pullback low
Loss of the 0.5655 NY low breaks the day's range toward the 0.5650 Asian low
Thin late-Friday liquidity; RBA on Sep 29 and US PCE next week are the next event risks
Lower highs off the NY spike high, compressing above the pullback low.
Late NY on Friday: the 16:00 UTC spike to the 0.5677 day high was rejected. Price has since retraced to the 0.5660 pullback low, near the 78.6% of the NY spike fib, and is now compressing 0.5660–0.5669 under a lower high, pinned to its EMAs. The kiwi stayed heavy near late-June lows despite a softer dollar as NZ yields eased. The whole session remains inside the 0.5650–0.5677 day range, with no setup in play.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.5677 day high
Loss of the 0.5660 pullback low exposes the 0.5655 NY low, then the 0.5650 asian low
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; weekend headlines and the RBA decision on Sep 29 carry gap risk for the Monday open
19:17 UTC
Sideways, rebuilding off the spike low · RSI 51 · price 0.56674
24h range 0.5650–0.5677; false break of London high faded, higher low at 0.5660.
The 16:00 UTC USD dip on lower oil pushed the pair through the London high to a 0.56774 NY high. That move was fully rejected back to the 0.56602 spike low. Price is now late in the NY session, grinding back toward the 0.56687 recent high inside a day range bounded by the 0.56502 Asian low.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56687 recent high puts the 0.56774 NY high back in play
Failure at the 0.56602 spike low reopens the 0.56552 NY low and the 0.56502 Asian low
Weekly close in under 2h: thin liquidity, and ranges near the midpoint of the ny spike fib may just drift
Sep 29 RBA and next week's US ADP/PCE are the next event risks that could shift this read
Late-NY compression below 0.5670 after rejection at the 0.5677 session high.
The early-NY USD dip, on softer oil and a slipping dollar, lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5655 NY low to a 0.5677 session high, but the spike was rejected and faded to a 0.5660 higher low, near the 78.6% of the ny spike. Price is now pressing the 0.5670 round number in thin late-NY trade, still inside the 0.5650–0.5677 day range above the Asian low.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 round number reopens the 0.5677 session high
Loss of the 0.5660 higher low turns focus back to the 0.5655 ny low and 0.5650 asian low
Friday close and weekend gap risk; RBA Sep 29 and US PCE/ADP next week could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Intraday range, mild recovery late NY · RSI 56 · price 0.56674
Higher low at 0.5660 inside 0.5655–0.5677 NY range.
The 16:00 UTC spike to the 0.5677 session high, which lined up with the oil-led USD dip, was fully rejected. Price faded to a 0.5660 swing low, above the 0.5655 NY low, and is now pressing the 0.5670 round number late in NY hours with RSI(14) near 56. The 0.5650 Asian low remains the day's floor.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 round number opens a retest of the 0.5677 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5660 swing low returns price to the 0.5655 NY low and the higher-low trendline breaks
Loss of the 0.5650 Asian low breaks the day's range to the downside
Thin Friday liquidity into the weekend close; ATR near 5 pips keeps moves small unless USD headlines hit
18:32 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 0.56658
0.5650–0.5677 day range; rejected fix spike, late-NY compression mid-range.
London lifted the pair out of the Asian range (0.5650–0.5669) to 0.5676. NY slipped to the 0.5655 ny low, then the London-fix spike to a 0.5677 session high failed back inside the range, a false break of the London top. Late NY is compressing 0.5660–0.5666 above the 0.5660 swing low, which sits near the fix spike's 78.6% retrace. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and the kiwi has not held gains despite the softer USD, with NZ yields easing.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56774
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5670 round number reopens the 0.5677 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5660 swing low exposes the 0.5655 ny low, then the 0.5650 asian low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; thin post-NY liquidity into the weekly close can distort range edges
Day range 0.5650–0.5677, lower highs since NY spike.
The 16:00 UTC spike to a 0.5677 day high briefly cleared the 0.5676 London high, then was rejected, a false break. Price has since faded to the 61.8% of the NY spike fib near 0.5664, just under the 0.5670 round number. Kiwi failed to extend on the softer USD after the sentiment data, and after-London-close price action is compressing in a 3–4 pip band.
Support: 0.56602, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56756, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 swing low exposes the 0.5655 NY low, then the 0.5650 Asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5670 round number would put the London high and day high back in play
Thin late-Friday liquidity; RBA decision on Sep 29 is the next scheduled risk for NZD crosses
18:03 UTC
Sideways, fading a failed NY spike · RSI 51 · price 0.5663
24h range 0.5650–0.5677; lower highs since 16:00 UTC spike.
The Michigan sentiment beat at 14:00 UTC pushed the pair to the NY low near 0.5655. A 16:00 UTC spike to the 0.5677 session high was then rejected, and price has retraced about 60% of that leg to 0.5663, with a late low at 0.5660 underneath. Late NY into the weekend, RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 5 pips, with the pair still inside the 0.5650–0.5677 range despite the softer USD tone.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5677
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read if hikes are explicitly endorsed
M15 close below the 0.5655 ny low exposes the 0.5650 asian low and the range floor
Reclaim of the 0.5670 round number reopens the 0.5677 session high
Thin pre-weekend liquidity can exaggerate moves around the late low at 0.5660
17:47 UTC
Sideways, intraday range after failed spike · RSI 53 · price 0.56639
Day range 0.5655–0.5677; 16:00 UTC spike above London high fully faded.
Late NY, after London close. The 16:00 UTC spike to the 0.56774 day high briefly cleared the London high but was fully faded. Price now sits at the 61.8% of the ny spike fib near 0.5664, just under EMA20, with the 0.5660 pullback low holding. The dollar's softer Friday tone has not produced kiwi follow-through, and the pair stays pinned mid-range with the ny low at 0.5655 and the asian low at 0.5650 intact.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56774
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5660 pullback low exposes the ny low at 0.5655, then the asian low at 0.5650
Reclaim of 0.5670 psych reopens the 0.56774 day high
Thin post-London liquidity keeps the range read intact unless 0.5655 or 0.5677 breaks
17:32 UTC
Sideways, fading off the day high · RSI 49 · price 0.56634
0.5655–0.5677 NY range, lower highs after spike.
London cleared the Asian high, but the 16:00 UTC spike from the 0.5655 NY low to a 0.5677 day high failed as a false break. Price has since retraced about 62% of that NY spike fib, printing lower highs below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 49, as the USD consolidates after the firmer Michigan print.
Support: 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56698, 0.56774
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5655 NY low exposes the 0.5650 Asia low
Close above the 0.5670 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5677 day high
0.5650–0.5677 day range; session high false break, price back inside Asian range.
London lifted NZD off the 0.5650 Asian low, but the 16:00 UTC spike to a 0.5677 session high above the London peak drew a quick rejection. That false break returned price inside the Asian range, back near the 50% retracement of the day's advance, with RSI(14) at 45 and price below both EMAs after London close.
Support: 0.56555, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5655 ny low exposes the 0.5650 asian low, also the lowest area since late June
Recovery above the 0.5669 asian high reopens the 0.5677 session high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read in thin post-London trade
16:47 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 0.56656
0.5650–0.5677 day range; false break of London high.
NY slid to a 0.5655 low after the UoM sentiment beat, then a 16:00 UTC spike poked above the London high to a 0.5677 day high and was rejected back below the 0.5670 psych level. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is holding the 0.5664 pullback low near the 61.8% of the NY spike fib, sitting just above both EMAs. RSI(14) is flat near 51, and the 0.5650 Asian low remains the floor of the day's range.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5677 day high negates the false break read
Loss of the 0.5664 pullback low exposes the 0.5655 ny low, then the 0.5650 asian low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the weekend close
16:32 UTC
Sideways, two-way swings inside a day range · RSI 51 · price 0.56693
0.5650–0.5677 range; failed push through the range top around London close.
NZD/USD has held a 0.5650–0.5677 range for 24h, with the 0.5650 range floor defended twice (late Thursday and the Asia session). The Michigan sentiment beat at 14:00 UTC dragged price to a 0.5655 NY low. A spike around London close then briefly cleared the prior London high to a 0.5677 range top and was rejected. Price now sits near 0.5669, just above the fib 50% of that NY rebound.
Support: 0.56663, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5677 range top invalidates the false-break read and opens the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the fib 50% near 0.5666 puts the 0.5655 ny low back in play
Loss of the 0.5655 ny low exposes the 0.5650 range floor, a two-test level
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift the read into the weekly close
16:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 61 · price 0.56739
Double bottom at 0.5650, NY higher low, day high being probed.
NZD/USD held a double bottom at the 0.5650 asian low and printed a higher low at 0.5655 in NY. After London close it ran from the 0.5665 breakout pt to a 0.5677 day high as the USD eased with yields. Price sits just under the London high, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.5665, 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5677 day high clears the London high and opens 0.5700 psych
Slip back below the 0.5665 breakout pt, near the 38.2% fib, returns price to the NY range
Break of the 0.5655 ny low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5650 asian low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5650–0.5676 intraday range, higher low at 0.5655.
London pushed through the Asian range to a 0.5676 session high, where it was rejected. NY hours then unwound the move to a 0.5655 NY low after firm US durables and UoM prints, holding above the 0.5650 Asian low. A late-NY bounce has lifted price back to 0.5668, keeping the range intact with a higher low in place.
Support: 0.56552, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56719, 0.56756
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5672 ny high reopens the 0.5676 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5655 ny low breaks the higher low and exposes the 0.5650 asian low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the Friday close
NY broke the 0.5663 floor, now basing above the NY low.
London stalled at the 0.5676 london high and printed a lower high near 0.5672 in the first hour of NY. The better-than-expected UoM sentiment print at 14:00 UTC broke price below the 0.5663 floor to a 0.5656 ny low. Price is now stabilising around 0.5660, below both EMAs, inside the Asian range and below the 23.6% level of the London-NY drop.
Support: 0.56558, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5672, 0.56756
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5672 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the NY drop
Failure to hold the 0.5656 ny low exposes the 0.5650 asian low and the day's floor
A move through 50% of the London-NY drop (~0.5666) would mark the break as a false break
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone late in the NY session
15:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London · RSI 42 · price 0.56607
London high rejected, NY back inside Asian range.
London broke the asian high at 0.56685 and ran to a 0.56756 london high, then faded into a series of lower highs. Selling after the UoM sentiment beat in NY drove a 0.56558 ny low back inside the Asian range, and price is now consolidating just above it, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 42. The asian low at 0.56502 held twice in the window.
Support: 0.56558, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56756
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.56558 ny low exposes the 0.56502 asian low, a double low in this window
Close back above the 0.56685 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the pullback
Retrace stalling at the 38.2–50% fib zone (0.5663–0.5666) would extend the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone late in the NY session
NY reversal of London high, lower highs, back inside Asian range.
London lifted price out of the Asian range to a 0.5676 session high. NY rejected it, and the 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment beat knocked price to a 0.5656 ny low near the 78.6% fib of the Asia-London leg. Price now sits back inside the Asian range under a line of lower highs, with the 0.5650 double low below.
Support: 0.56558, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56624, 0.56719, 0.56756
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5650 double low opens the 0.5626 area flagged in the digest
A close above the 0.5662 bounce high and the lower highs line shifts focus back to the 0.5672 ny high
Recovery through the 0.5676 session high would void the NY rejection
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Range, rolling over from session high · RSI 40 · price 0.56613
Lower highs since London high; NY dip held near 78.6% of Asia-London leg.
London pushed a few pips through yesterday's 0.5675 NY high to a 0.56756 session high, which was rejected, and a trendline of lower highs has capped price since. The NY dip after the Michigan beat held at 0.56558 (ny low), close to the 78.6% fib of the 0.56502–0.56756 leg, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 5 pips.
Support: 0.56558, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5672, 0.56756
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.56558 (ny low) exposes the 0.56502 double low, the 24h floor
Close above 0.5672 breaks the lower highs trendline and reopens the 0.56756 session high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift the read late in NY session
14:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 38 · price 0.56578
London high 0.5676 capped; lower highs into NY, 0.5663 range floor broken.
London extended above the Asian range to a 0.5676 london high, but NY printed lower highs near 0.5672. The USD-supportive Michigan beat at 14:00 UTC then broke the 0.5663 floor, now a broken floor, and the 61.8% fib of the Asian-London rally near 0.5660. Price is holding just above the 0.5656 ny low with RSI(14) at 38, and the 0.5650 asian low, also the prior-day low, sits next below.
Support: 0.56558, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5672, 0.56756
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5663 broken floor negates the range-break read
Failure at the 0.5656 ny low exposes the 0.5650 asian low; a break there prints a lower low for the window
A close above the 0.5672 lower highs line reopens the 0.5676 london high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift the read after London close
London's push through yesterday's 0.5675 high stalled at the 0.5676 session high. The NY session's 0.5663–0.5672 chop then broke lower into the 14:00 UTC UoM window, snapping the rising trendline from the 0.5650 asian low as USD stays supported by hawkish Fed pricing. Price sits below the 61.8% of the Asia-London leg near 0.5660, with RSI(14) at 37 and ATR about 5 pips.
Support: 0.5655, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5672, 0.56756
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5663 ny floor negates the range break
Failure at the 0.5655 asia pivot exposes the 0.5650 asian low, the multi-month low flagged in the digest
Recovery through the 0.5672 ny high reopens the 0.5676 session high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday range, rolling lower from 0.5675 · RSI 41 · price 0.56609
Lower highs off 0.5675 session high; London low 0.5663 broken in early NY.
London rejected the 0.5675 session high, which matched yesterday's high. Lower highs near 0.5672 followed, and the 14:00 UTC UoM window dropped price through the London low at 0.5663 to the 0.5660 61.8% fib of the Asian rally. RSI(14) sits near 41 below both EMAs as USD holds firm on hawkish Fed pricing, with the 0.5650 Asian low (tested three times in 24h) the next floor.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5672, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5660 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5650 Asian low
M15 close back above the 0.5663 London low negates the NY break
Break of the 0.5672 lower highs line reopens the 0.5675 session high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.56663
24h range 0.5650–0.5676; NY chopping in the upper half.
The London rally off the 0.5650 Asian low was rejected at the 0.5676 range high, matching yesterday's top. Since the NY open, price has chopped between the 0.5663 NY low and the 0.5672 NY high as the USD eased with yields. The pullback is holding the 50% fib and the rising higher-low line, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5672, 0.5676
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5676 range high breaks the 24h range
Loss of the 0.5663 NY low and the higher-low line exposes the 0.5650 Asian low
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Sideways, fading from session high · RSI 49 · price 0.56668
Lower highs off 0.5676 session high, floor holding at 0.5663.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5668 and printed a 0.5676 session high, rejected in line with Thursday's 0.5675 top. Since then the pair has set lower highs, now 0.5671, while the 0.5663 intraday low holds at the 50% retrace of the 0.5650–0.5676 leg. Price is back under the Asian high after mixed US durables at 12:30 UTC, with ATR near 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5671, 0.56756
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5663 intraday low exposes the 0.5650 range low, tested three times in the window
Close above the 0.5671 lower high and the Asian high reopens the 0.5676 session high
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1-yr f/c 4.6%) could break the compression either way
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, relevant for Oct hike pricing
13:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling below session high · RSI 54 · price 0.56678
24h range 0.5650–0.5676; lower highs vs higher lows compressing on the Asian high.
London broke above the Asian range high at 0.5668 and set a session high at 0.5676, matching yesterday's NY spike high, as the USD eased with yields. Since then, lower highs near 0.5671 and a swing low at 0.5663 (about 50% of the Asia-London leg) have squeezed price back onto the Asian high into the London-NY transition. The 24h range low at 0.5650 is still intact.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5676
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 0.5663–0.5671 compression
M15 close below the 0.5663 swing low and the rising lows line opens a move back toward the 0.5650 range low
Close above the 0.5671 lower high brings the 0.5676 session high back into play; clearing it breaks the 24h range
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is further USD risk during NY hours
13:04 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from range top · RSI 47 · price 0.56647
24h range 0.5650–0.5676; London high rejected, NY retracing.
London broke the Asian high at 0.56685 and printed a session high at 0.56756, retesting yesterday's 0.5675 spike, but met rejection there. NY has faded the move to the ny low at 0.56636, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the asian low to session high leg. Price is below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 as the USD eases alongside yields.
Support: 0.56636, 0.5662, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56756
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the ny low at 0.56636 and the london low at 0.5662 exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.5660 and then the asian low at 0.5650
Reclaim of the asian high at 0.56685 puts the session high at 0.56756 back in play; a close above it breaks the 24h range top
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC
12:32 UTC
Sideways, range-bound after Asia bounce · RSI 52 · price 0.56687
0.5650–0.5676 range; higher lows since Asia, capped at range top.
The 0.5650 triple low held through NY and Asia hours, and London broke the Asian range high near 0.5669 as the USD eased with yields, before a rejection at the 0.5676 range top. Price is flat at EMA20 around 0.5669 into the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5676 range top breaks the 24h range and puts 0.5700 psych in play
Loss of 0.5664 london low (near the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg) exposes the 0.5650 triple low
US durables (12:30 UTC, releasing now) and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, momentum fading · RSI 49 · price 0.56682
Higher lows off 0.5650, rejected again at 0.5675 range top.
The late-London spike to 0.5676 was rejected at the range top, its third test in 24h. Price is back at the Asian high near 0.5668 after the USD eased with oil and yields. The higher-lows trendline from the 0.5650 Asian low is intact, and the 38.2% retrace of that Asian-low rally sits near 0.5666; RSI(14) is neutral at 49.
Support: 0.56653, 0.56635, 0.56502
Resistance: 0.56724, 0.56756
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5675 range top invalidates the range read; the 0.5672 london high is the first cap
Loss of the 0.5665 higher low and trendline breaks the HL chain, exposing the 0.5664 swing low and then the 0.5650 asian low
12:02 UTC
Intraday higher lows, capped at range top · RSI 53 · price 0.56697
24h range 0.5650–0.5676; London broke above Asian high, rejected at range top.
Kiwi held the 0.5650 range floor four times in 24h, then climbed through London on a chain of higher lows as the USD eased with yields, clearing the asian high at 0.56685. The 11:00 UTC push stalled at the 0.5675 range top, also yesterday's NY high, and price is now retesting the asian high into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.56685, 0.56635, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56756, 0.5700
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 0.5650–0.5676 range either way
M15 close above the 0.5676 range top opens the 0.5700 psych level
Loss of the asian high and the rising higher-low line puts the 0.56635 swing low and the 50% fib retracement near 0.5663 in play
Failure at 0.56635 exposes the 0.5650 range floor again
Higher lows from the 0.5650 day low, capped at 0.5675.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.56685 and has printed a higher-low chain along a rising trendline from the 0.5650 day low, helped by easing US yields and a softer USD. The 11:00 UTC push to the 0.56756 day high was rejected at the 0.5675 area, which also capped price twice yesterday, and price is now back near the Asian high with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 0.56685, 0.5664, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56756, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Hold above the asian high at 0.56685 keeps the London breakout intact; slipping back inside the Asian range weakens it
M15 close below the 0.5664 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HL sequence
Close above the 0.56756 day high clears the triple cap near 0.5675 and opens the 0.5700 psych level
A return to the 0.5650 day low would put the overnight base back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Intraday up-leg inside a 24h range · RSI 64 · price 0.56749
Higher lows since 0.5650, pressing range top.
After holding the 0.5650 range floor in Asia, NZDUSD printed rising lows through London, cleared the London high at 0.5672 and has pushed to 0.5675 on the 11:00 UTC bar. That is a retest of the 24h high that capped two moves yesterday, and it comes as the USD eases with Treasury yields. RSI(14) near 64 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.56724, 0.56653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 24h high at 0.5675 breaks the range; the 0.5700 round number sits next
A drop back below the London high at 0.5672 would mark a false break
Loss of the 0.5665 swing low breaks the rising lows chain
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Range, London bounce stalling · RSI 52 · price 0.5668
Lower highs from 0.5672 session high, swing low 0.5664 holding.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the Asian range to a 0.5672 session high as US yields eased, but lower highs since have compressed price between 0.5664 and 0.5672. The 0.5664 swing low held at the 38.2% retrace of the 0.5650–0.5672 leg, and the 0.5650 24h low has been tested three times without a break.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5672, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5664 swing low and 0.5662 london low reopens the 0.5650 24h low
Close above the 0.5672 session high and the lower-highs line tests the 0.5675 prior high; clearing it exposes the 0.5700 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5650 range floor; stalled below 0.5675 range top.
London extended the bounce from the 0.5650 range floor, which was tested three times over the past 24h. Price cleared the Asian high at 0.56685 and topped at the 0.56724 London high as USD eased with yields. The 09:45 UTC dip held at the 0.56635 swing low, near the 38.2% retrace, and price now sits in the upper half of the 0.5650–0.5675 range with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.56635, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56724, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 range top breaks the 24h range
Loss of the 0.56635 swing low and the rising support line shifts focus back to the 0.5650 range floor
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Range-bound, fading from London high · RSI 48 · price 0.56645
Lower highs since 08:15 UTC inside 0.5650–0.5675 day range.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.56685 to a 0.56724 London high as easing US yields softened the USD, but the move stalled. A string of lower highs has pulled price back inside the Asian range, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 0.5650–0.5672 leg. The 0.5650 triple low has held on three tests over the past 24h.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56724, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Hold below the lower-highs line and a break of the 0.5662 london low opens the 50% fib and the 0.5650 triple low
M15 close back above 0.56724 london high negates the false break read, with the 0.5675 prior high next
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5650 triple low, London capped under 0.5675.
A third test of the 0.5650 triple low held in Asia. London then broke the Asian high near 0.5669 and set a session high at 0.5672 as the USD eased with oil and yields. Mid-London, price is holding a tight band above the london low at 0.5662, just under Thursday's 0.5675 prior high, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56724, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 prior high clears Thursday's spike and opens the path to 0.5700 psych
Loss of the 0.5662 london low breaks the rising trendline and brings the 0.5650 triple low back into view
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Intraday grind higher, stalling at range top · RSI 64 · price 0.56691
Higher lows since 0.5650 inside 24h 0.5650–0.5675 range.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5669 as USD eased with yields, but the London high at 0.5672 stalled just under yesterday's 0.5675 prior high. Price is now retesting the Asian high, with the 0.5662 higher low and rising trendline intact. The 0.5650 triple low still anchors the 24h range.
Support: 0.56685, 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56724, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5669 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5662 higher low and rising trendline exposes the fib 61.8 near 0.5659, then the 0.5650 triple low
Close above the 0.5675 prior high clears the 24h range top, opening 0.5700
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing the range top · RSI 66 · price 0.56701
HH/HL chain off the 0.5650 range floor, testing the 0.5672–0.5675 range top.
London broke the Asian high at 0.56685 and printed a session high at 0.56724 as the USD eased with oil and yields. Price is holding a rising line off the 03:00 UTC low, just under the 0.5675 prior high, which caps a 24h range with a range floor at 0.5650 tested three times. The London low at 0.5662 marks the latest higher low. RSI(14) is 66 and ATR is about 3.6 pips, so conditions are tight.
Support: 0.56685, 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56724, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.56685 asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5662 london low and the rising line breaks the HH/HL chain and reopens the 0.5650 range floor
Close above the 0.5675 prior high clears the 24h range top; the 0.5700 round number is next
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off a 0.5650 triple low, pressing Thursday's range top.
The rebound from the 0.5650 range floor, tested three times since Thursday's NY session, carried through the London open above the 0.5669 Asian high to a 0.5672 session high as the USD eased with yields. RSI(14) sits near 71, and Thursday's 0.5675 prior high, the top of the triple-bottom range, lies directly overhead.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56724, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 prior high clears Thursday's range top and brings the 0.5700 round number into view
Break of the 0.5662 swing low and the rising trendline ends the London higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5650 range floor turns the triple low into a lower-low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could reprice the USD and shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off range floor · RSI 66 · price 0.56719
Higher lows from 0.5650, Asian high broken at London open.
London open pushed through the 0.5669 Asian high as USD eased with yields and oil on US-Iran talk reports. The move extends a higher-low sequence off the 0.5650 range floor, which held three times since yesterday's NY session. Price is now pressing the 0.5675 prior high, the top of the NY spike, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.56685, 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 prior high opens the path to the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5662 higher low and the rising trendline returns price toward the 0.5650 range floor
Slip back below the 0.5669 Asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM final at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Three holds at the 0.5650 triple low (NY Thursday, rollover, Asia) have built a higher-low chain that carried price to the asian high at 0.5669 in early London, where it is stalling. The range top is the NY high at 0.5675, where Thursday's spike failed as firm US yields and hawkish Fedspeak kept the dollar bid.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675, 0.5681
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 NY high breaks the 24h range and exposes the 0.5681 prior high
Rejection at the 0.5669 asian high keeps price inside the range
Loss of the 0.5662 london low and the higher-lows trendline puts the triple low back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off lows, stalling at London open high · RSI 64 · price 0.56659
Triple low at 0.5650, higher lows since Asia, capped below NY spike high.
The 0.5650 triple low held through NY and Asia. The late-Asia rally tagged 0.5669 at the London open and was rejected, with the pullback holding the 38.2% fib at 0.5662. The dollar stays bid on hawkish Fedspeak and firm yields, and the NY spike high at 0.5675 plus the prior high at 0.5684 cap the recovery overhead.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 london high opens the 0.5675 ny spike hi, then the 0.5684 prior high
Break below the 0.5662 38.2% fib exposes the 0.5650 triple low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off lows · RSI 61 · price 0.56637
0.5650–0.5675 range; false break of Asian high at London open.
Price has held a 0.5650–0.5675 range for 24h, with the 0.5650 triple low defended three times despite yield-led USD strength. London open poked just above the Asian high to a 0.5669 session high, then reversed in a false break; price now sits near 0.5664, just above the 38.2% fib of the 0.5650–0.5669 rally, with the 50% fib at 0.5660 next.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5669 session high reopens the 0.5675 prior high
Loss of the 50% fib at 0.5660 exposes the 0.5650 triple low
Close below 0.5650 breaks the 24h range floor
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from triple low, pressing session high inside 0.5650–0.5684 range.
0.5650 held as a triple low through London, NY and Asia. The London-open rebound is testing the 0.5669 session high with RSI(14) near 73. The move stays below yesterday's NY high at 0.5675 and inside the wider range capped by the 0.5684 prior high, while firm US yields remain the backdrop.
Support: 0.56638, 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56691, 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 session high puts the 0.5675 NY high and then the 0.5684 prior high in play
Loss of the 0.5664 higher low and the fib 50% at 0.5660 would unwind the Asia-London rebound
A fourth test of the 0.5650 triple low that fails confirms a range break toward 0.5626
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 could materially shift this read via US yields
07:03 UTC
Intraday bounce off lows, momentum hot · RSI 76 · price 0.56679
Triple low at 0.5650, descending trendline broken at London open.
Buyers held the 0.5650 triple low three times, during NY hours, late NY and in Asia, despite a firm USD on rising yields. Price has since lifted about 18 pips into the London open, breaking the descending trendline off the prior high and pressing the Asian high at 0.56685. RSI(14) near 76 is stretched against a roughly 3-pip ATR, with the NY spike at 0.5675 and the prior high at 0.5684 overhead.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 NY spike opens the prior high at 0.5684
Rejection at the Asian high and a return below the 0.5660 fib 50% puts the triple low at 0.5650 back in focus
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Range, short-term higher lows into London open · RSI 71 · price 0.56659
0.5650–0.5675 range; HH/HL chain off 0.5650 floor.
The 0.5650 triple low held a third time at 02:45–03:00 UTC as yield-driven USD strength stalled. Late Asia has since printed a higher-low chain up to 0.5667, just under the 0.56685 Asian high, with price holding above the ema20 near 0.5660. RSI(14) near 71 is warm, not stretched.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56685 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.56747 ny high in play
Loss of the ema20 near 0.5660 and the rising support returns price to mid-range
A fourth test of the 0.5650 triple low opens the range floor; a break extends the move lower
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
0.5650 floor held three times; late-Asia higher lows pressing the Asia high.
Ahead of the London open, NZDUSD has lifted about 17 pips off the 0.5650 triple low, which held in yesterday's NY session and twice in Asia. Price is now testing the Asia high at 0.56685, with a first rejection at 0.5667. The pair stays pinned in the range by a yield-driven USD bid, while RSI(14) near 64 shows momentum firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56685 asia high opens the thu ny high at 0.5675
Loss of the 0.5660 pivot returns focus to the 0.5650 triple low; the asia rebound 61.8% sits near 0.5657
Break below the 0.5650 triple low exposes 0.5626
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, US durable goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5650–0.5675 range; higher lows since the 03:00 UTC test, pressing the Asian high.
Price has lifted off the 0.5650 triple low, tested in Thursday's NY session and again in Asia. It has retraced ~78.6% of the Asia drop and is pressing the 0.5669 Asian high ahead of London open. Rising US yields have capped every rally since Thursday, leaving the 0.5675 NY spike high as the range top.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 Asian high exposes the 0.5675 NY spike high and the range top
Loss of the 0.5660 psych level returns price to the middle of the Asian range
Break of the 0.5650 triple low turns the range into a lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift the range read via US yields
06:03 UTC
Range with lower highs, pressing the range floor · RSI 58 · price 0.56607
Flat 0.5650 range floor under a descending trendline of lower highs.
Late Asia session, an hour before London open. Price is bouncing off the 0.5650 range floor, which has rejected four tests since yesterday's NY session, and is now at the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 0.56685 Asian high. Highs keep stepping lower under the descending trendline from 0.5684; the NY high at 0.5675 faded as rising US yields kept NZD heavy.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 range floor breaks the four-touch base
Close above the 0.56685 Asian high and the descending trendline ends the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 0.5662 keeps price capped inside the range
Holding the 50% fib at 0.5659 keeps the Asian bounce intact
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 could shift the yield-driven read
Flat base at 0.5650 day low, lower highs 0.5675 then 0.5669.
The 0.5650 day low has held three times in 24h: the NY selloff, the late-NY fade and the Asian drop. Rising US yields keep the pair pinned near it. Late in Asia, price is back at the 50% retracement of the Asian drop near 0.5660, with the asia high at 0.5669 and the NY spike high at 0.5675 forming a lower-high sequence overhead.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5650 day low on London open exposes the 0.5600 range floor
M15 close above the 0.5669 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5675 ny high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC; hawkish remarks would add to US yield pressure on the pair
Late Asia session. Price is bouncing to 0.5658 off the 0.5650 triple low, tested at 14:45 and 17:45 UTC and again at 02:45 UTC, and is back above the ema20. Lower highs from the 0.5675 NY high to the 0.5669 asian high are squeezing price against that base, with firm US yields the backdrop.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 triple low breaks the base; digest flags 0.5626 as the next level
Reclaim of the 0.5669 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 0.5675 ny high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5656 returns price to the 0.5650 base
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
Lower highs over a flat 0.5650 base, late-Asia bounce.
The 0.5650 triple low has held three times: twice in yesterday's NY session and again at 03:00 UTC after the Asian high at 0.5669 was rejected. Lower highs at 0.5684, the 0.5675 ny spike hi and 0.5669 track a descending trendline as rising US yields keep the pair heavy. Late-Asia, pre-London price is back above the ema20 near 0.5656 and sits just under the 50% of the Asian drop fib, with the 61.8% fib at 0.5661 overhead.
Support: 0.56555, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56615, 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 triple low breaks the range base and opens 0.5626
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib at 0.5661 and the descending trendline puts the 0.5669 asian high back in play
Break above the 0.5675 ny spike hi invalidates the lower-high sequence
Slip back below the ema20 near 0.5656 returns price to the 0.5650–0.5654 Asian range
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 37 · price 0.56528
Lower highs into a flat 0.5650 floor, tight range late in the Asia session.
NZDUSD is sitting on 0.5650 late in the Asia session after a third test of that triple low since yesterday's NY session. The asian high at 0.5669 capped the early bounce, extending the lower-high chain from London's 0.5684, as rising US yields and Fed hike pricing keep the pair heavy. RSI(14) near 37 and ATR about 3 pips show a compressed, quiet tape ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56558, 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 triple low breaks the intraday floor and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery above the 0.5656 micro high and the 0.5669 asian high would stall the lower-high chain; the 0.5675 spike high from NY is the next cap
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift US yields and this read
Late Asia session: the pop to the 0.5669 Asian high met rejection and slid back to 0.5650, the third test of the 24h low since NY as US yields stay firm. Lower highs at the 0.5675 NY spike and the Asian high press on that flat base, with the 0.5656 bounce high capping the tight range since; RSI(14) ~36, ATR ~3 pips.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56558, 0.56685, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5650 breaks the 24h low and opens 0.5626, then the 0.5600 range floor
Close back above the 0.5656 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline near 0.5666 would neutralise the downtrend read; the Asian high at 0.5669 sits just above
A 38.2-50% retrace of the Asian leg fib (0.5657-0.5659) that caps price keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of the compressed Asian range
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, pressing on floor · RSI 38 · price 0.56528
Lower highs compressing into a flat 0.5650 floor.
Late Asia session has faded the 0.5669 Asia high back into the 0.5650 floor. This is the fourth test in 24h, after demand held it during London, NY and at the rollover. Lower highs from the 0.5675 NY high cap the tape, and RSI(14) near 38 shows no oversold extreme as rising US yields keep NZD heavy.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56615, 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 floor breaks the four-test base and exposes the 0.5626 level
Recovery above the 61.8% fib at 0.5661 challenges the lower-high sequence; the Asia high at 0.5669 is the structural pivot
Lower-high trendline from the 0.5675 NY high sits near 0.5666 and has capped every bounce
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the read via US yields
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat floor · RSI 40 · price 0.56526
Lower highs at 0.5684/0.5675/0.5668 pressing on a 0.5650 triple low.
NZDUSD is sitting just above 0.5650, a triple low tested in the NY session, after NY hours and again in Asia. Firm US yields keep capping each bounce: the 0.5675 NY spike high faded, and the 0.5668 Asian high was rejected between the 50–61.8% retracement of the day's decline. RSI(14) is near 40, and ATR is compressed to about 3.5 pips late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56747, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 triple low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5626, then the 0.5600 range floor
M15 close above the 0.5668 Asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence, with the 0.5675 NY spike high and 0.5684 London high above
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read through yields
Lower highs from 0.56747 against a triple-tested 0.5650 floor.
Mid-Asia session has fully reversed the 01:00 UTC pop to the 0.56685 Asian high. That Asian drop has put price back on the 0.5650 floor for the third time since yesterday's NY session, with lower highs stepping down from the 0.56747 NY spike high. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR(14) is about 3.5 pips, with yield-driven USD strength keeping the pair near its lowest since late June.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5662, 0.56685, 0.56747
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5650 floor breaks the three-test base and exposes the next level at 0.5626
Recovery above the 0.5662 Asia shelf and the lower highs trendline from the 0.56747 NY spike high neutralises the sequence, with the 0.56685 Asian high above
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into flat base · RSI 39 · price 0.56526
Lower highs from 0.5684 pressing a flat 0.5650 floor.
Mid-Asia session, the 0.5669 Asian high faded into a fourth retest of the 0.5650 swing lows since yesterday's NY session. Lower highs at 0.5684, 0.5675 (NY spike high) and 0.5669 are compressing into that floor, with price below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 3.6 pips. Firm US yields and Fed hike pricing keep the pair near its lowest levels since late June.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 swing lows breaks the flat base, with 0.5626 the next support
Recovery above the 0.5660 breakdown point and the lower-highs trendline near 0.5666 would put the 0.5669 Asian high and 0.5675 NY spike high back in play
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into flat base · RSI 38 · price 0.56511
Lower highs 0.5684/0.5675/0.5669 pressing a flat 0.5650 floor.
Late Asia session has slipped below the Asian low at 0.5655, and the 0.5650 24h low is under its third test after the NY and London-hour lows at the same level. The 01:00 UTC Asian high spike to 0.56685 faded, extending the lower-high trendline from the 0.56747 NY spike high as USD stays bid on Fed hike pricing.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.56685, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 24h low breaks the flat base and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Recapture of the 0.5655 Asian low returns price to the Asian range
Break above the lower-high trendline and the 0.56685 Asian high negates the lower-high sequence; the 0.56747 NY spike high sits above
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift USD tone into London
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 40 · price 0.56523
Lower highs pressing on a 0.5650 floor tested four times.
Lower highs at 0.5684 (prior high, European bounce), 0.5675 (NY high) and 0.5668 (Asian high) sit above a flat 0.5650 floor that has held four times since the NY session, with rising US yields keeping the Kiwi heavy. Mid-Asia session, the bounce to the Asian high was rejected and price is back on the floor, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56747, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 floor breaks the base and opens the 0.5600 psych area
M15 close above the 0.5668 Asian high breaks the lower-high chain; the NY high at 0.5675 is next
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding near day lows · RSI 45 · price 0.5656
Lower highs from NY spike, holding above 0.5650 double low.
Mid-Asia session. The pop to the 0.5669 Asian high was rejected, and price is back at the 0.5655 session low, below the ema20 near 0.5659. It sits just above the 0.5650 double low set twice during NY hours, as firm US yields keep the Kiwi heavy. The lower-high line from the 0.5675 NY high caps the tape, and ATR(14) is a thin 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.56548, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5659, 0.56685, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 double low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5626
Close above the 0.5669 Asian high breaks the lower-high line from the NY high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durables/UoM later could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
0.5650–0.5675 range after the London-NY slide, lower highs.
After the slide from 0.5684 at London open, price has held a 0.5650–0.5675 range. The 0.5650 swing low was tested twice in NY hours as rising US yields pushed NZD to its lowest since late June. The Asia session rejected at the 0.5668 asian high, near the 50% fib of the drop and under the lower-highs line. Price is back below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~46 and ATR(14) ~3.6 pips.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5668, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 swing low breaks the range and exposes 0.5626
Loss of the 0.5655 asian low puts the swing low back in play
Close above the 0.5668 asian high and the lower-highs line shifts focus to the 0.5675 range top
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 0.5684; double bottom at 0.5650; Asian range 0.5655–0.5669.
Kiwi slid from the 0.5684 London high as US yields pushed to new highs. Buyers stepped in twice at 0.5650 during NY, forming a double bottom, and a lower-highs sequence off the 0.5675 NY high is capping rebounds. In Asia, price is ranging between 0.5655 and 0.5669, and the 01:00 UTC push was rejected at the Asia high.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5675, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5650 breaks the double bottom and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.56685 Asia high clears the lower-highs trendline and opens the 0.5675 NY high
Rejection again at the 50–61.8% fib of the London-NY decline keeps the range read intact
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, with US durables later, could shift yields and this read
02:02 UTC
Down from London high, now ranging · RSI 48 · price 0.56593
Range 0.5650–0.5675 since NY, lower highs capping bounces.
Firmer US yields and a bid USD pushed the pair off the 0.5684 London high to a double bottom at 0.5650 during NY hours. Bounces have since printed lower highs: the NY spike high at 0.5675, then the Asian high at 0.56685, which sits near the 50% fib of the London high-NY low leg and was rejected. Price is mid-range early in the Asia session, pinned between the Asian low at 0.5655 and the rollover high at 0.5663, with ATR near 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.56685, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 double btm breaks the range and confirms a lower low
Close above the 0.56685 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5675 NY spike high back in play
Hold of the 0.5655 Asian low keeps price boxed below the 0.5663 rollover high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then US Durable Goods and UoM later in the session could shift the read
01:47 UTC
Sideways after NY-session selloff · RSI 49 · price 0.5661
Range 0.5650–0.5675, higher lows in Asia capped at 0.5668.
NZDUSD slid from the 0.5684 london high to a double low at 0.5650 during NY hours as US yields pushed to new highs, then settled into a 0.5650–0.5675 range capped by the 0.5675 ny spike high. Asia session has held higher lows but saw a rejection at the 0.5668 asia high, the 50% retrace of the decline fib, with price back on flat EMAs and RSI(14) at 49.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5668, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5655 asia low puts the 0.5650 double low back in play; a break there extends the NY-session decline
Close above the 0.5668 asia high (50% of the decline fib) exposes the 0.5675 ny spike high, then the 0.5684 london high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could break the range
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in a range · RSI 55 · price 0.56615
Lower highs since London high, 0.5650 double low holding.
Early Asia session: the 01:00 UTC pop to the 0.56685 asia high was rejected straight back to 0.5662. That caps a lower-high chain from the 0.5684 london high and the 0.5675 lower high, with firm US yields and a bid dollar behind yesterday's slide. Price is pinned around flat EMAs between the 0.5655 asia low and the 0.5650 day low, which held twice during NY hours.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.5675, 0.5684
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5650 day low breaks the double low and extends the downtrend
Close above 0.5675 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and targets the 0.5684 london high
Asian range 0.5655–0.56685: a break of either side sets the London open tone
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift US yields and this read
Double bottom near 0.5650, Asian range broken higher.
NZDUSD held a double bottom at 0.5650 through NY and the rollover, even as US yields and a firm dollar kept the pair heavy. Early in the Asia session it broke above the 0.5655–0.5662 Asian range. It is now about 69% back into the NY spike retrace and approaching the 0.5675 NY spike high, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5684, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 NY spike high exposes the 0.5684 London high and 0.5700 round number
Slip back below the 0.5662 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break, with 0.5655 Asian low next
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.5650 double btm reopens the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double low at 0.5650 with lower highs overhead; tight early-Asia range.
NZD slid from the 0.5684 London high to 0.5650 as US yields climbed. The 0.5650 double low held twice in NY, and a spike to the 0.5675 NY spike high was sold on the lower-highs line. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.5655 Asian low and the 0.5664 Asian high, with price above EMA20 and pressing EMA50 from below.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56636, 0.56747, 0.56842
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5650 double low confirms a lower-low and ends the basing read
Close above the 0.5664 Asian high and the lower-highs line puts the 0.5675 NY spike high back in play
Trump-Xi summit headlines and US 2y yield moves can break the Asian range
Williams speaks at 09:15 UTC; hawkish Fed commentary extends the US yield driver
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in Asia range · RSI 51 · price 0.56594
Lower highs from 0.5684; double base at 0.5650; tight Asian range.
NZDUSD bled from the 0.5684 London high to a 0.5650 NY low as US yields pressed higher. A 16:15 UTC spike to 0.5675 (spike high) was fully rejected, and 0.5650 held on the retest. Asia is compressing between the 0.5655 asian low and 0.5664 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.56549, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56636, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5655 asian low puts the 0.5650 ny low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5664 asian high opens the 0.5675 spike high, near the 61.8–78.6% zone of the 0.5684–0.5650 drop
Trump-Xi summit headlines and US 2-year yields could break the Asian range
US Durable Goods Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5684; tight 0.5655–0.5664 box inside a 0.5650–0.5675 NY range.
NZD/USD slid from the 0.5684 London high to 0.5650 during NY hours as US yields climbed. That low has held on a triple test since, and early Asia is coiling between the 0.5655 swing low and the 0.5664 swing high, still below the lower-highs line and the 0.5675 NY spike high, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.56549, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.56636, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5650 breaks the triple test and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 0.5664 swing high puts the 0.5675 NY spike high and the lower-highs line back in play
Loss of the 0.5655 swing low returns price to the 0.5650 floor
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at session low · price 0.56554
Lower highs capping a 0.5650–0.5664 range after the NY spike failed.