Lower highs and lower lows; tight base above 0.5650 swing lows.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5929 late-August peak. The latest leg ran from the 0.5749 lower high to 0.5650 as strong US flash PMIs and Fed hike repricing lifted the dollar. Price has since compressed into a narrow consolidation above the 0.5650 swing lows, tested three times, with ATR(14) down near 18 pips and EMA20 below EMA50, both overhead.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5650 swing lows resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
Recovery through the 0.5686 minor high and the fib 50% at 0.5700 would mark the first real retracement of the leg; the 0.5749 lower high caps the structure
Descending lower-highs trendline, near 0.5720, remains unchallenged
RBA on Sep 29 and US ADP, GDP and spending on Sep 30 could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.5902; compressing above 0.5650.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5902 swing early in the window. The descending lower-highs line now sits near 0.5725, and EMA20 remains below EMA50. Strong US flash PMIs drove Wednesday's break under 0.5700, extending a fifth weekly loss, and price has since compressed above a triple low at 0.5650 as ATR(14) eases to about 18 pips, with the bounce retracing only about a fifth of the 0.5749-0.5650 leg and the 0.5686 swing high capping so far.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5750
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5650 triple low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5600 range floor
Close above the 0.5686 swing high and the 38.2% fib of the 0.5749-0.5650 leg opens a test of 0.5750
A break above the 0.5750 lower high and the lower-highs line would end the sequence
UoM inflation expectations today at 14:00 UTC and US PCE next week could materially shift this read
RBA decision on Sep 29 could weigh on NZD through AUD/NZD
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 33 · price 0.5666
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base at 0.5650.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the early-month 0.5902 peak, with the descending trendline from 0.5865 capping each rally. The leg from the 0.5749 swing high extended the sequence after Wednesday's strong US flash PMIs. Price is now in a tight consolidation between the 0.5650 triple low and the 0.5686 range cap, just under the 38.2% fib of that leg, while ATR(14) near 18 pips compresses from the mid-week expansion and both EMAs sit overhead with EMA20 below EMA50.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5650 triple low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
Close above the 0.5686 range cap and 0.5700 round number would signal a deeper correction toward the 0.5749 swing high, still below the descending trendline near 0.5725
US Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations today could break the current consolidation
RBA decision Sep 29 and US PCE next week are the next event risks for this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5902 early-month high.
The pair has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5902 early-month high, and a lower-highs line from 0.5835 still caps the structure. Strong US flash PMIs and a hawkish Fed repricing broke the 0.5700 psych area mid-week. That move left a 0.5686 lower high and put price on the 0.5650 swing low, now tested three times. RSI near 28 is oversold and ATR(14) around 18 pips is contained, so the slide is grinding rather than expanding.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5650 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
H4 close back above the 0.5686 lower high and the 0.5700 psych level would be the first break of the lower-highs sequence
A retracement of the 0.5749-0.5650 leg that stalls at the 0.5711 61.8% fib keeps the 0.5749 swing high intact
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs / lower lows from 0.5966; mid-Sept 0.5700 range floor broken.
Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows from 0.5966. Wednesday's strong US flash PMIs broke the 0.5700 broken floor of the mid-September range, and price is now holding just above the 0.5650 swing low. Rallies have stalled at the lower highs trendline near 0.5750, and the fib 38.2% of the 0.5835 swing high to 0.5650 leg sits at 0.5721, close to the broken floor. RSI near 31 is approaching oversold, but ATR is steady around 18 pips, so this reads as a steady grind rather than capitulation. Price is below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5835
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.5700 broken floor would mark the range break as a false break
A break of the lower highs trendline and 0.5750 would end the lower-high sequence; the 0.5835 swing high is the next structural cap
Sustained trade below the 0.5650 swing low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5600 range floor
US Durable Goods (Fri 12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift US yields and this read
RBA decision Sep 29 could move the pair via the AUD/NZD cross