Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5966 late-August high.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5966 late-August high. The bounce to the 0.5749 swing high on Monday failed, and price has since slipped back through the 0.5700 round number, with a double test of the 0.5650 swing low. USD strength has driven the leg: hawkish Fed repricing and beats on the PMIs and jobless claims have pushed yields above 5%. ATR(14) near 18 pips shows steady expansion rather than compression, and price trades below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5650 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery above the 0.5686 lower high and the 0.5700 round number would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 0.5749 swing high breaks the lower-high line and the downtrend structure
Fri US Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations, plus Trump-Xi summit headlines, could materially shift this read
RSI near 32 approaching oversold; failure to make a new low with RSI rising would flag divergence
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5902 early-month high.
NZDUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs from 0.5902 to 0.5835, 0.5749 and now 0.5686. Price is capped by a descending trendline and has slipped to a fresh swing low at 0.5650, the lowest since early July, as USD extended its bid on the PMI and jobless-claims beats with Treasury yields above 5%. ATR(14) near 19-20 pips points to an orderly grind lower rather than capitulation. RSI in the mid-20s shows the leg is stretched, with the intermediate 0.5626 and the 0.5600 range floor the next reference points below.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.5626 intermediate support exposes the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
Recovery above the 0.5686 lower high and the 0.5700 prior pivot would break the lower-high sequence
A retracement into the 50-61.8% fib zone (0.5700-0.5711) that holds keeps the downtrend structure intact
A move back above the 0.5749 swing high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Trump-Xi summit headlines and Friday's US durables and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.5902; 0.5700-0.5750 shelf broken.
NZDUSD has built a clean sequence of lower highs from 0.5902 to 0.5835 and 0.5749, with lows stepping down to the 0.5660 swing low. Wednesday's US PMI beat and firmer Fed hike pricing broke the pair out of its 0.5700-0.5750 shelf. That shelf break leaves the 0.5700 pivot, near the ema20, as the first overhead test. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 19 pips is expanding modestly off the mid-month compression while RSI hovers just above oversold.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5749, 0.5835
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5660 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5626 and the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery and hold above the 0.5700 pivot would put the 0.5749 lower high and 50% fib back in play
Break above 0.5749 on a closing basis breaks the lower-highs trendline and challenges the downtrend read; 0.5835 prior high is the next swing reference
Trump-Xi summit headlines and Fed's Paulson today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the early-September 0.5902 high.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the 0.5902 early-September high, with the lower highs trendline capping every rebound, including the 0.5749 lower high on Sep 22. The 0.5700-0.5750 consolidation gave way Wednesday after the US PMI beat and the Fed hike repricing, printing a swing low at 0.5660. Price is now holding just above that low, below both EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR(14) near 21 pips; the 50% retracement of the 0.5749-0.5660 leg sits at 0.5705, close to the old range base at 0.5700.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.5700 range base would put the breakdown in question, with the 0.5749 lower high and the lower highs trendline above
A break of the 0.5660 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
Trump-Xi talks and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read