The rally to a 15-month high near 1.4247 has stalled, with two tops capping and price now ranging between 1.4150 and 1.4247. The soft US NFP (57K vs 110K) knocked the dollar and unwound the push toward 1.4250, while weak oil and a dovish, on-hold BoC keep dip demand around the mid-1.41s. ATR(14) is steady near 27 pips — neither compressing nor extending.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4114
Resistance: 1.4247
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4247 negates the double top read
Break below 1.4150 confirms a lower low and range break
ISM Services (Mon) and BoC Business Outlook could shift this read
Multi-week uptrend from 1.3900 stalled at a double top around 1.4248, the 15-month high, before the soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) knocked the USD and drove a leg down to the 1.4150 swing low. Price is now consolidating back near 1.4200, holding above EMA20 and EMA50, with the twin peaks at 1.4248 capping. Falling oil and a dovish, on-hold BoC keep the pair two-way despite the softer dollar.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4248 invalidates the double top and reopens the highs
Failure to hold the 1.4150 swing low confirms a lower low toward 1.4050
BoC Business Outlook Mon and ISM Services could shift this read
USDCAD ran a clean multi-week uptrend from the 1.389 base to a 15-month high near 1.4248, printing two matching highs there before rolling over. Price has since slipped back under the 1.42 pivot, with the soft US NFP miss capping the dollar and firmer Canadian GDP supporting CAD. ATR is steady rather than expanding, and the twin highs at 1.4247 mark a potential double top pending the 1.4150 low.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4111
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 confirms the double top neckline break
Reclaim of 1.4200 pivot keeps the 1.4248 high in reach
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and FOMC minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) can materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over from highs · RSI 47 · price 1.41967
Double top near 1.4248, shallow pullback.
The multi-week climb to a 15-month high near 1.4248 has stalled, with twin peaks around that level forming a double top and price pulling back after the soft US NFP miss trimmed hawkish-Fed bets. Momentum has cooled with price slipping under the EMA20 while holding above the rising EMA50; the 1.4150 recent low is the pivot for the pullback. ATR(14) remains elevated after the wide reversal bars, so range is not compressing.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4177, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 confirms a lower-low and validates the double top neckline break
H4 close above 1.4248 negates the double top and resumes the uptrend
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this USD-driven read
09:03 UTC
Uptrend rolling over from highs · RSI 44 · price 1.41763
Twin peaks near 1.4248, pulling back below EMAs.
USDCAD extended its multi-week uptrend to a 15-month high at 1.4248 before twin peaks there capped price and the pair rolled over, sliding back below both EMA20 (~1.4200) and EMA50 after the soft June US NFP print knocked the dollar off its highs. Price now trades at 1.4176, pressing the 1.4150 recent low that forms the double-top neckline. ATR remains elevated as the pullback develops.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 confirms a lower low and neckline break of the double top
Reclaim of 1.4248 negates the double-top read and resumes the uptrend
BoC Business Outlook and ISM Services Mon could shift this read
Uptrend from the early-window base near 1.3865 drove USDCAD to a 15-month high at 1.4248 before a clear rejection, with the soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) knocking the pair back toward the 1.4150 recent low. Price is now consolidating around 1.4176, pinned below EMA20 as momentum stalls. ATR remains moderate — the pullback has not yet broken the rising higher-low structure.
Support: 1.41498, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 recent low confirms a lower-low and breaks the uptrend
Close back above 1.4248 15-month high reasserts trend continuation
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC Minutes (Wed) are key event risks for this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from highs · RSI 45 · price 1.41706
Higher highs capped at 1.4247, near-term rollover.
USDCAD ran to a 15-month high near 1.4247 before stalling; the twin peaks around 1.4247 form a double-top look as price rejected the level and pulled back. The soft 57K US NFP print sent the pair lower off that high, tagging a spike low at 1.4150 before stabilising near 1.417 below the 20-period EMA. Higher-low structure from the early-month base remains intact but momentum has flattened into the 1.42 psych level.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4177, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 confirms a lower-low and deeper retrace
H4 close above 1.4247 negates the double-top read
BoC Business Outlook and US ISM Services (Mon) could reset this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 43 · price 1.41706
Double top near 1.4247, lower highs forming.
The multi-week uptrend pushed to a 15-month high near 1.4247 but stalled twice at that level, printing a double top. The soft 57K US NFP miss dragged the pair back to 1.417, slipping under the EMA20 and EMA50 as the dovish USD unwind bit. ATR(14) is holding an expanded regime, so the retrace has momentum behind it.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4085
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 opens a deeper retrace toward the 1.4085 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4200 psych level would re-expose the 1.4247 high
BoC Business Outlook Survey (Mon) and ISM Services could shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 43 · price 1.41885
Double top below 1.4248, pulling back into 1.4150 support.
USDCAD topped out twice near 1.4248 — a 15-month high — and has since rolled over, knocked off the highs after the weak US NFP print forced a USD unwind and handed CAD a relief bid. Price is now probing the 1.4177 neckline and the 1.4150 weekly low, having lost both EMAs; the double-top read stays intact while price holds below 1.4248. ATR remains elevated, keeping ranges wide through the pullback.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4177
Resistance: 1.4248
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 weekly low confirms a lower low and validates the double-top breakdown
Reclaim of 1.4248 negates the double top and revives the uptrend
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon 14:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 44 · price 1.41885
Double top below 1.4248, pullback toward range base.
The multi-week climb off the early-month 1.39 base pushed USDCAD to a 15-month high near 1.4248, where price was rejected twice to leave a double top. The soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) forced a USD unwind, dragging the pair back through the EMA20 toward the 1.4150 weekly low before a shallow bounce to 1.4188. EMA50 still supports from below, but momentum has cooled and price is capped under the double-top ceiling.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4177, 1.4090
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4310
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 weekly low confirms a lower low and negates the uptrend structure
Reclaim of 1.4248 double top reopens the path toward 1.4310
ISM Services (Mon) and BoC Business Outlook (Mon) could shift this read