USDCAD spiked to the 1.41498 week low on Thursday's soft US NFP shock (57K vs 110K f/c) before buyers stepped in twice around 1.4159, carving out a rounded bottom and a run of higher lows into Friday's thin holiday session. Price has recovered to the 1.42063 range top, which has capped the last few hours, while sitting above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mid-range. The broader 1.4150–1.4248 range built this week still frames the picture.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4159, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.42063, 1.4235, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42063 range top opens the path toward 1.4235 and the 1.4248 15-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4177 9d ema exposes the 1.4159 swing low
ISM Services Mon and Canada jobs Jul 10 could reset this range read
USDCAD was knocked off the 1.4248 15-month high on Thursday's soft 57K US NFP print, with one bar sweeping down to 1.41498 before demand stepped in. Price has since carved higher lows back to 1.42, now consolidating right on the 61.8% retracement of that week's drop and holding above EMA20/50. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-50s as the recovery matures.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4150, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4218, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4218 opens the path back toward the 1.4248 high
Failure to hold 1.4165 reopens the 1.41498 sweep low
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone materially
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4248 15-month high into Thursday's NY session, with the sharp 1.4249→1.4150 flush landing on the soft 57K US NFP print that trimmed Fed hike bets. Price has since recovered into a tight 1.4165–1.4205 range and now sits mid-EMA cluster near 1.4199, RSI(14) cycling around neutral. The 1.4205 range top has capped the bounce while the 1.4150 NFP low remains the floor.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4205 range top reopens the path toward 1.4248
Loss of 1.4150 nfp low confirms a lower-low and resumes the pullback
Thin holiday liquidity into Monday's ISM Services (Jul 6) could shift this read
19:03 UTC
Downtrend easing into consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.4199
Recovery base after week-low sweep, ranging low-1.4190s.
The soft 57K US NFP print Thursday knocked USD/CAD off its ~1.4248 15-month high, with the sharp NY-session drop to 1.4150 marking the week low. Price has since carved a rounded base back into the low 1.4190s and is now consolidating just above EMA20, with RSI(14) recovered to a neutral ~52. Overhead supply at 1.4204 has capped the bounce while demand steps in on dips toward 1.4165.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4204, 1.4237
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4204 opens the path back toward the 1.4237 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4165 reopens the 1.4150 week low
ISM Services PMI Mon and BoC Business Outlook could shift this read
USDCAD backed off the 1.4247 week high made mid-week and sold off sharply into Thursday's 57K US NFP miss, spiking to a 1.41498 week low before demand stepped in. Price has since ground higher-lows back to the 1.42 pivot and is now consolidating just under the 1.4206 range top, holding above EMA20 and EMA50. Soft crude on US-Iran de-escalation has capped the CAD-side of the recovery, keeping the move two-way.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4159, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4225, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4206 range top opens the path back toward 1.4225 and the 1.4247 week high
Failure to hold 1.4159 swing low reopens the 1.41498 week low
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon and oil direction could shift this read
USDCAD sold off sharply into Thursday's NY session, printing 1.41498 as the 57K NFP miss knocked the USD, before grinding back to the 1.42 handle. Price has built a series of higher lows off that base and now sits on EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) around 55. The 1.4205 range top has capped the recovery, keeping this a two-way tug-of-war with soft oil offsetting the weaker dollar.
Support: 1.4159, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4234, 1.42392
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4205 opens the path back toward the 1.4234 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4159 swing low reopens the 1.41498 nfp low
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed are the week's key catalysts
17:03 UTC
Recovering after this-week's sharp drop · RSI 58 · price 1.42015
Double-bottom base, higher lows since NFP.
USDCAD collapsed from the 1.4247 week high to 1.41498 on Thursday's soft US NFP (57K vs 110K), then carved a double bottom into 1.415-1.416 as the dollar stayed on the back foot. Price has since ground back above EMA20 to 1.4200, but the 1.4206 recovery high is capping the bounce, with falling oil keeping the recovery a tug-of-war. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 58 after basing at the lows.
Support: 1.4183, 1.41592, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.42063, 1.42245, 1.42472
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.42063 recovery high opens the 1.42245 prior high
Loss of the 1.41830 ema20 exposes the 1.41592 swing low
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon and ISM Services could reset this read
Basing above NFP low after sweep, capped below 1.4206.
USDCAD spiked to the week high 1.4247 midweek before Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K) drove a single-bar sweep down to 1.4150, tagging the NFP low. Price has since ground higher into thin holiday liquidity, retracing roughly half the drop and holding above the EMA20 near 1.4185, but attempts stall below the 1.4206 session high. Broad USD softness supports the bounce while weak oil and a patient BoC cap CAD, keeping the recovery contained.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4165, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4247
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4206 opens the path back toward the week high 1.4247
Failure to hold 1.4165 swing low reopens the NFP low at 1.4150
BoC Business Outlook Survey and ISM Services (Mon) could shift this read
USDCAD sold off through the week from Tuesday's 1.4247 high, with the sharp Thursday leg down to 1.4150 tied to the soft US NFP (57K vs 110K) that trimmed Fed hike bets. Price has since ground back above EMA20 into the 1.42 round area, RSI(14) recovering near 54 after basing twice around 1.4150. The 1.4205 recent high now caps the bounce.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4205 opens the path back toward 1.4247 weekly high
Loss of 1.4150 swing low resumes the down-move
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon 14:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
Higher-lows base after NFP flush, testing weekly open.
USDCAD opened Monday near 1.4202 and pushed to a 1.4247 week high before Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp drop into the 1.41498 week low. Price has since carved higher-lows through the NY session and recovered to retest the weekly open at 1.42017, reclaiming EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling back through 50. Soft oil on US-Iran de-escalation has kept the CAD-side recovery contained.
Support: 1.4159, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.42019, 1.42245, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42245 prior high reopens the path to the 1.42472 week high
Loss of the 1.41590 swing low re-exposes the 1.41498 week low
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon 14:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4247 weekly high on Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K), the sharpest H1 drop of the week as the dovish USD repricing bit. Price has since ground back to the 50% retrace near 1.4200, retesting the broken 1.42 consolidation floor from below. RSI(14) sits mid-50s with price holding above EMA20 through the recovery, though soft oil is capping CAD's side of the move.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4225, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42050 opens the path back toward the 1.42472 weekly high
Failure to hold 1.41650 re-exposes the 1.41498 NFP low
BoC Business Outlook Survey and US ISM Services Mon could reset this recovery
15:02 UTC
Recovery off NFP low, retracing prior drop · RSI 57 · price 1.41977
Sharp reversal from week high, now mid-range recovery.
USDCAD pushed to a 15-month high near 1.4248 mid-week before the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp reversal to 1.41498 during Thursday's NY session. Since then price has ground back to ~1.4198, reclaiming EMA20 and stalling around the 50% retrace of that down-move. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-50s as the recovery matures.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.42185, 1.42472
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 1.42185 congestion opens the path back toward the 1.4248 week high
Failure to hold the 1.41592 swing low reopens the 1.41498 nfp low
ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes Wed are the key USD risk events for this recovery
14:02 UTC
Recovering after NFP-driven drop · RSI 57 · price 1.41986
Lower high, then higher lows off Thursday spike low.
USDCAD opened Monday near 1.4210 and climbed to a 1.4247 week high into Wednesday before Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp break down to 1.4150. Since that spike low the pair has carved higher lows and reclaimed EMA20, now grinding back toward the 1.4200 psych level — roughly the 50% retracement of the NFP drop. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s off oversold.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4200 psych opens the path back to the 1.4247 week high
Failure to hold 1.4165 swing low reopens the 1.4150 thursday low
BoC Business Outlook (Mon) and ISM Services could shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 57 · price 1.41986
Lower highs into post-NFP low, now basing.
USDCAD sold off from Wednesday's 1.4247 week high to a 1.4150 post-NFP low as the soft US jobs report (57K) undercut the dollar. Price has since based near the 1.4159 swing low and recovered back through EMA20, now stalling at the 50% retracement of that drop around 1.4199. Session high at 1.4204 and the 1.4218 prior high cap the rebound.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4159, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4204, 1.4218, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4204 session high opens the path toward 1.4218 and the 1.4247 week high
Failure to hold 1.4159 swing low reopens the 1.4150 post-nfp low
ISM Services (Mon) and Fed's Waller could shift the USD read
Lower highs off 1.4248, higher low carved at 1.4159.
The dominant move this week was Thursday's NFP-miss (57K vs 110K) slide that dumped USDCAD from the 1.4248 15-month high down to 1.41498. Price has since rounded off the lows on a soft-USD tone, printing a higher low at 1.4159 and clawing back to the weekly open at 1.42091, with RSI(14) recovered near 59 and price reclaiming EMA20. The 1.42091 weekly open now caps the retrace attempt.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41498, 1.4180
Resistance: 1.42091, 1.42248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42091 opens the path back toward the 1.42248 15-month high
Failure to hold 1.4159 reopens the 1.41498 nfp low and confirms a lower low
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and FOMC minutes (Wed) are USD risk that could shift this read
The week held a tight 1.4180–1.4248 range into Friday before the soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp range break, spiking to a 1.41498 low as the dollar was sold broadly. Price has since carved higher lows off that low and is now grinding back above EMA20, retesting the 50% retrace near 1.41985 and the broken prior range from below. RSI(14) has recovered through the mid-50s as the recovery extends into thin holiday trade.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.41985, 1.4215, 1.42248
What it said to watch
Sustained move above 1.42150 prior range would reopen the week high at 1.42248
Failure at the 50% retrace and a break below 1.41592 recent low reopens the week low
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and BoC Business Outlook (Mon 14:30 UTC) could shift this recovery read
Post-NFP breakdown, consolidating with higher lows.
USDCAD rolled over after Thursday's soft US June NFP (57K vs 110K) knocked the dollar broadly, sending the pair through the 1.4200 range floor to 1.41498 during the NY session. Since then price has based near the lows and carved a sequence of higher lows into 1.41878, with RSI(14) recovering back toward the mid-50s and price reclaiming EMA20 while EMA50 still caps overhead. The recovery is corrective within this week's downtrend.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.41971, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41971 / 1.42000 would extend the recovery and challenge the breakdown
Loss of 1.41592 confirms a fresh lower low and resumes the down leg
BoC Business Outlook Survey and ISM Services (Mon) could reshape this read
USDCAD topped at the 1.4247 15-month high early in the week before a sharp impulsive drop on Thursday's US June NFP miss (57K vs 110K), which knocked the pair to a 1.41498 spike low. Price has since based between 1.4159 and 1.4190, reclaiming EMA20 while EMA50 near 1.4195 still caps, with RSI recovering back toward the midline. The weekly open at 1.4204 remains the pivot separating the recovery attempt from a return into the prior range.
Support: 1.4159, 1.4150, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4204, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4204 weekly open would question the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.4159 week low reopens the 1.41498 spike low
BoC Business Outlook Survey and US ISM Services Mon could reset this read
USDCAD was knocked off this week's 14-month highs near 1.4247 by Friday's soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K), the sharp breakdown bar cracking through 1.4200 into a 1.41498 nfp low. Price has since based, carving a higher swing low at 1.41592 and reclaiming the EMA20 around 1.4179 into today's session. RSI(14) has cycled back to neutral near 49 after the selloff, with the 1.4200 round level now capping the recovery.
Support: 1.4179, 1.41592, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42185
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4200 opens the path back toward the 1.42185 prior high
Failure to hold 1.41592 swing low reopens the 1.41498 nfp low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC + Waller could shift the post-NFP USD read
USDCAD topped near the 1.4248 15-month high early week, then rolled over as the soft US NFP miss (57K vs 110K) undercut the dollar during the NY session. Price broke the 1.4180 shelf on the payroll candle, printed a week low at 1.4159, and is now retesting the broken 1.4180 level from below with RSI(14) recovering toward 46. EMA(20) is being pivoted around 1.4178, while price sits below EMA(50), keeping the weekly structure heavy.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41651
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4200, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 reclaim above 1.4200 psych level would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4159 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and BoC Business Outlook 14:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4247 week high after Thursday's soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) undercut the dollar, with the impulse leg spiking to 1.41498 before basing. Since then price has consolidated in a tight 1.4159–1.4200 band through the holiday-thinned session, RSI(14) recovering toward the mid-40s and price pivoting around a flattening EMor20. Lower highs off the drop remain intact while 1.4200 caps the bounces.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4200 invalidates the lower-high structure
Loss of 1.41592 range floor reopens the 1.41498 spike low
BoC Business Outlook Survey and US ISM Services Mon could shift this read
USDCAD rolled over from midweek highs near 1.4247, and Thursday's soft US payroll print drove a sharp drop to the 1.4150 week low before a modest bounce back toward 1.4176. Price now hugs the H1 EMA20 with RSI in the mid-40s, while the 1.4200 pivot has capped the recovery. The break below the 1.42 midweek range keeps structure tilted lower unless 1.4200 is reclaimed.
Support: 1.4159, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 week low confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4200 pivot negates the breakdown from the midweek range
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC minutes (Wed) are the next USD risk events in a holiday-thinned week
08:02 UTC
Short-term downtrend after range break · RSI 43 · price 1.4176
Range broken lower, lower highs forming.
After holding a tight 1.4190-1.4240 range since Monday's open, the pair broke sharply lower on Thursday's soft US NFP miss, printing a one-week low near 1.4150 before falling crude re-pressured CAD. The bounce stalled under 1.4185 and price is now drifting back toward the lows, trading below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the low-40s.
Support: 1.4159, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200, 1.4224
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4200 pivot negates the downside break
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could re-arm the USD read
USDCAD sold off hard on the June payrolls miss (57K vs 110K), gapping from the mid-1.42s to a 1.41498 spike low as the USD leg gave way. After a shallow consolidation near 1.418, price has broken lower again into the current session, printing a fresh 1.41592 low with RSI(14) below 50. Price sits under both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and the descending line of lower highs off 1.4224 continues to cap.
After opening Monday near 1.4196 and pushing to a 15-month high at 1.4247 midweek, USDCAD reversed hard on the US NFP miss (57K vs 110K), breaking the 1.42 psych level and spiking down to 1.4150. Price has since ground lower along fresh lows near 1.4160 with lower highs capping each bounce; RSI holding in the high-30s and price pinned below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41592
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 spike low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.4200 psych would neutralise the post-NFP break
BoC Business Outlook Survey and US ISM Services (Mon) could reset the read
USD/CAD sold off through Thursday's NY session after the soft US June payrolls print (57K vs 110K), breaking the 1.4200 shelf and printing a 1.41498 spike low. The corrective bounce stalled near 1.41971 and was rejected, with price now grinding to fresh lows below EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s with no bullish divergence yet as the sequence of lower highs holds.
Support: 1.41498, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.41971, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.41850 retest zone would neutralize the lower-high structure
Loss of the 1.41498 spike low opens deeper downside toward the 1.4140 psych area
BoC Business Outlook and ISM Services next week are the next catalysts for this pair
06:02 UTC
Downtrend since NFP shock · RSI 36 · price 1.41633
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD rolled over into a downtrend after yesterday's US NFP miss (57K vs 110K) knocked the pair from ~1.4213 to a spike low of 1.41498. Price has traded below EMA(20)/EMA(50) since, printing a clean sequence of lower highs into the Asia session and pressing fresh session lows near 1.41592. The 1.41855 area capped the corrective bounce before supply returned.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.41855, 1.41971, 1.42137
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41855 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.41498 spike low extends the retrace toward TD's sub-1.40 view
BoC Business Outlook Survey and ISM Services Jul 6 could reshape this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend after topping · RSI 41 · price 1.41652
Lower highs, pressing week low.
USDCAD topped near the 1.4247 15-month high early week before the soft US June payrolls print (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp break lower through 1.4180. Price has traded under EMA20 and EMA50 since, grinding through the NY session yesterday toward the 1.41498 week low with RSI(14) parked in the low 40s. Each bounce this session has stalled below 1.4180, keeping the sequence of lower highs intact.
Support: 1.41636, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.41971, 1.42247
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41800 ema20 would neutralise the downside read
Break of the 1.41498 week low confirms a fresh lower low
BoC Business Outlook Survey (Mon) and ISM Services could reshape this read
05:03 UTC
Reversal lower after topping · RSI 40 · price 1.41652
Lower highs since 15-month high, capped below EMAs.
USDCAD pushed to a 15-month high near 1.42472 early in the week, then reversed hard through the NY session on the soft June NFP miss (57K vs 110K), the standout bar sweeping from 1.4213 down to 1.41498. Price has since drifted lower under both EMAs, marking successive lower highs, with the recent bounce stalling at 1.41971 and demand thinning into 1.4165. RSI(14) sits sub-40, confirming the loss of the prior upside momentum.
Support: 1.41636, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.41971, 1.4200, 1.42472
What it said to watch
close back above the 1.42000 pivot would negate the reversal read
break of the 1.41498 spike low opens a deeper retrace
BoC Business Outlook Survey (Mon 14:30 UTC) and ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) are the next catalysts
USDCAD climbed since Monday's open to a 15-month high near 1.4247 into Thursday's NY session, then the soft US NFP (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp drop to 1.4150. Price is now consolidating in the low 1.417s below EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-40s. The 1.4200 psych level caps the recovery while 1.4165 day low and 1.4150 week low mark the floor.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4200, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4200 reopens the path to the 1.4247 week high
Failure to hold 1.4150 week low confirms a lower low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and BoC Business Outlook Mon 14:30 UTC could shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend since NFP miss · RSI 40 · price 1.41706
Range break lower, grinding toward week low.
USDCAD held a tight 1.4200–1.4250 band from Monday's open through Thursday before the soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp breakdown during the NY session, gapping the pair from ~1.4218 to a 1.41498 low. Price has since consolidated below the broken range and is drifting back toward that low, sitting under both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI cycling in the 35–45 zone. Lower highs at 1.4197 and 1.4185 have capped each bounce this session.
Support: 1.41655, 1.4150, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.41971, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4150 opens a retest of the 1.41498 nfp low
Reclaim of 1.4185 prior base would negate the breakdown read
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and BoC Business Outlook could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, near week low · RSI 42 · price 1.41706
Lower highs since 15-mo peak, breakdown holding.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4247 15-month high through the week, with the sharp leg lower coming as the soft US June NFP (57K vs 110K f/c) hit the dollar, driving the pair to a week low near 1.4150. Price is trading back below EMA20 and EMA50 and is grinding toward that week low again after a shallow bounce stalled at 1.4197. Lower highs have capped every recovery since the peak.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4150, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4197, 1.4217, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 confirms a fresh lower low and extends the week's downtrend
Reclaim of 1.4197 swing high would ease the breakdown pressure
ISM Services (Mon) and BoC Business Outlook (Mon) are the next USD/CAD catalysts and could shift this read
03:02 UTC
Turning lower after NFP · RSI 42 · price 1.41706
Range break down, consolidating near lows.
USDCAD ran to a 15-month high near 1.4247 midweek before the soft US June NFP (57K vs 110K) triggered a sharp leg down, breaking the 1.4200 base to a low of 1.4150. Price has consolidated in a 1.4165-1.4190 band since, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI recovering off the post-NFP low but capped under 45. The prior 1.4185 base now acts as resistance overhead.
Support: 1.41655, 1.4150, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4200 round number negates the range break lower
Failure to hold the 1.4150 week low confirms a fresh lower low
ISM Services PMI (Mon) and BoC Business Outlook (Mon) are the next USD/CAD catalysts
02:02 UTC
Downtrend after sharp reversal, now basing · RSI 44 · price 1.41777
Impulsive drop off week high, consolidating above 1.4150.
USDCAD ran to a 15-month high near 1.4247 earlier this week before the soft US June NFP print (57K vs 110K) triggered a sharp downside break, with the payroll bar slicing from 1.4218 to 1.4150. Price has since based in the 1.4169-1.4177 zone, holding above the 1.4150 post-NFP low but capped below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) subdued in the low-40s. Recovery attempts have stalled beneath the 1.4200 handle.
Support: 1.4173, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4225
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4200 negates the post-NFP breakdown
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and BoC Business Outlook 14:30 UTC could reset this read
02:02 UTC
Downshift after NFP, consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.41777
Range top rejected, broke lower, basing.
USDCAD ran up to a 1.4247 week high before the soft US June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) hit the dollar into the NY session, driving a one-bar break down to 1.4150. Price has since based between 1.4173 and 1.4190 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold to the mid-40s, and both EMAs sit above spot after the drop. The 1.4190 range top has capped the bounce, keeping the retrace read intact.
Support: 1.4173, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200, 1.4247
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4150 week low confirms continuation lower
H1 close above 1.4190 range top reopens 1.4200 psych
BoC Business Outlook and ISM Services Mon could shift this read
The week pushed USDCAD to a 15-month high near 1.4248 before Friday's soft US NFP (57K vs 110K) triggered a sharp reversal, the pair dumping to 1.4150 on the print. Since then price has carved higher lows back toward 1.4185, holding above the weekly low but capped below EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) has recovered off oversold to mid-40s as the pullback consolidates.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4248
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4150 weekly low confirms deeper reversal of the week's rally
H1 close back above 1.4220 range top reopens the path toward the 1.4248 high
BoC Business Outlook Survey and US ISM Services Mon could reshape this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after drop · RSI 44 · price 1.41849
Post-breakdown range near weekly low.
USDCAD slid off the mid-1.4240s week high and broke down sharply into Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K), spiking to 1.41498 before buyers stepped in around the 1.4150 weekly low. Price has since coiled in a tight 1.4175-1.4190 band below EMA20, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s. Supply at 1.4190 has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 1.4175, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4215, 1.42472
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4190 range top would neutralise the post-NFP breakdown
Loss of 1.4150 weekly low confirms downside continuation
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon 14:30 UTC and ISM Services could shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after drop · RSI 45 · price 1.41893
Sharp break lower then tight basing.
USDCAD sold off hard into Friday's US NFP miss (57K vs 110K), collapsing from ~1.4234 to the 1.4150 NFP low as the dollar was liquidated broadly. Price has since based in a tight 1.4175 range low to 1.4192 band, sitting just under EMA20 with RSI recovering back toward neutral. The 1.4214 pre-NFP shelf now caps the retrace, well below the 1.4248 week high.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4214, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4214 pre-NFP shelf would negate the NFP breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4150 NFP low opens continuation lower
ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT and BoC Business Outlook Survey are the next catalysts
USDCAD ran to a 15-month high near 1.4247 midweek before the soft US NFP miss (57K vs 110K) triggered a sharp one-hour plunge to 1.41498. Since then price has consolidated in a tight 1.4175–1.4190 band with RSI(14) recovering toward neutral, while EMA20 has capped the bounce around 1.4192. The broken 1.4206 shelf now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 1.41748, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.42058, 1.42472
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.42058 reopens the path to the 1.42472 week high
Loss of 1.41748 range low exposes the 1.41498 NFP low
ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes Wed are the next catalysts for this pair