USDCAD tagged a 15-month high near 1.4247 early in the week before Thursday's soft US NFP (57K vs 110K) flipped momentum and knocked it to a 1.4150 low. Price has ground back up through the thin US holiday session to 1.4204, carving higher lows and now sitting just above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-range. Resistance at 1.4210 has capped the recovery so far, with the 1.4247 week high overhead.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4210, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4210 opens the path back to the 1.4247 week high
Failure to hold 1.4160 reopens the 1.4150 recent low
BoC Business Outlook Survey (Mon 14:30 UTC) could shift this read
USD/CAD sold hard into Thursday's NY session, tagging a week low near 1.4150 after the soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) undercut the dollar. Since then price has clawed back into the mid-1.41s, filling a weekend gap down and pushing to 1.4204 with RSI(14) recovered to mid-range. Price sits above the H1 EMA(20) and EMA(50), but 1.4220 has capped attempts and the broader 1.4150-1.4247 range still frames the week.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4150, 1.4165
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4220 opens the path back to the 1.4247 week high
Failure to hold 1.4177 pivot exposes the 1.4150 recent low
BoC Business Outlook (Mon 14:30 UTC) and Canada jobs Fri could shift this read
USD/CAD was slammed to 1.4150 on Thursday's soft US payrolls (57K vs 110K), then clawed back through the week toward the 1.4200 round number. A weekend gap down to 1.4186 filled into Sunday's thin open, and price is now pressing the round-number cap with RSI(14) mid-range and price holding above EMA20/50. Recovery has traced a rounded bottom off the 1.41498 week low.
Support: 1.4185, 1.41627, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.4202, 1.42248, 1.42472
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4205 opens the path back toward the 1.42248 prior high
Failure to hold 1.41850 gap low reopens the 1.4150 range floor
BoC Business Outlook Survey (Jul 6, 14:30 UTC) and ISM Services (Jul 6, 14:00 UTC) could shift this read
USDCAD sold sharply into Thursday's NFP miss, spiking to the 1.41498 week low before buyers stepped in and grinded price back toward the 1.42066 range top. Since that flush the pair has carved higher-lows and reclaimed both H1 EMAs, with RSI(14) cycling back to mid-range. The 1.42066 area has capped the recovery, leaving price rotating just under it.
Support: 1.4165, 1.41498
Resistance: 1.42066, 1.42248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42066 range top opens the path toward 1.42248 swing high
Failure to hold 1.4165 recent low reopens the 1.41498 week low
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon 14:30 UTC and ISM Services could shift this read
USD/CAD crashed to a 1.4150 week low on Thursday's soft US payrolls (57K vs 110K) before buyers recovered the pair back to 1.4200. Since then it has carved higher lows off 1.4159 and consolidated in a tight 1.4197-1.4207 band, holding above EMA(20). Resistance at 1.4207 caps the current-day range with the 1.4248 week high sitting above.
Support: 1.4159, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4207, 1.4218, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4207 opens the path back toward the 1.4248 week high
Loss of the 1.4159 higher low reopens the 1.4150 week low
BoC Business Outlook Survey Mon 14:30 UTC could shift this read