The uptrend from the late-March low near 1.3550 topped in mid-June around 1.4248; since then price has ground lower in a chain of lower highs, with CAD pressured by weaker oil despite firm domestic data. The last two weeks have consolidated between the 1.3991 six-week low and 1.4125, with price back below EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI mid-40s reflects a stalled, corrective phase rather than a fresh trend leg.
Support: 1.3991, 1.3820, 1.3550
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4248
What it said to watch
D1 close below 1.3991 confirms a lower-low and extends the correction toward the 1.3820 may pivot
Close above 1.4125 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Canada jobs and US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT land together and could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Correction lower off June high · RSI 44 · price 1.40455
Lower highs since mid-June, basing near 1.4000.
USDCAD topped near 1.4247 in mid-June after repeated tests around 1.424, then rolled into a multi-week correction that has dragged price back under EMA20 and EMA50. Oil-led CAD weakness stalled at the 1.4050 pivot, which has capped repeatedly, while the 1.4000/1.3991 six-week-low zone has held on the downside. The result is a tightening base between 1.3991 and 1.4130 over the last two weeks.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3991, 1.3846
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4130, 1.4247
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.3991 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens 1.3846
Daily close above 1.4130 breaks the sequence of lower highs
Canada jobs + US NFP Fri 7 Aug (12:30 GMT) land together — material two-way risk to this base