Uptrend intact since the early-April low near 1.3550, with price holding above a rising EMA(50). The mid-June breakout above 1.4100 — supported by an oil-driven CAD bid failing to offset a firm dollar — drove a push to 1.4248, and the last two weeks have consolidated in a 1.4150–1.4250 band around desk fair value. Daily momentum has flattened with RSI mid-range as the market awaits fresh catalysts.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4075, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Daily close above 1.4250 extends the breakout toward 1.4300
Loss of 1.4150 range floor opens the path back to 1.4075
Canada jobs Fri and US CPI Tue Jul 14 could break the consolidation
Consolidation below June high after multi-month rally.
USDCAD has climbed through a multi-month uptrend off the early-April low near 1.3550, holding above a rising EMA(50) on D1. Two June attempts at 1.4248 rejected and price has coiled in a 1.4150–1.4250 band for roughly three weeks, parking near desks' fair value around 1.4158 as an oil bid props CAD against a broadly firm dollar.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4075, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Daily close above 1.4248 clears the June high and reopens the 1.4300 area
Failure to hold 1.4150 range floor confirms a lower-low toward 1.4075
Canada jobs Fri Jul 10 and BoC Jul 15 could break the consolidation