USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 9 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Post-spike fade, lower highs through NY · RSI 29 · price 1.42581
Lower-high sequence since 12:30 UTC spike, NY floor broken late.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss sent USD/CAD up from the 1.4220 pre-release low to an LFS spike high at 1.4298 at 12:30 UTC. Price stalled just under 1.4300, and NY session has since printed a lower-high chain (1.4289, 1.4278, 1.4273). The 1.4266 NY floor gave way after 19:00 UTC, and price now sits at the 50% retracement of the spike near 1.4259 with RSI(14) ~29.
Support: 1.42497, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42661, 1.42728, 1.42982
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.4250 exposes the london high at 1.4240
A close back above the 1.4266 ny floor and the lower-high trendline near 1.4273 negates the fade read
LFS spike high at 1.4298 remains the cap below the 1.4300 failure point
Weekend oil/Iran headlines and Macklem (Tue 06:05 UTC) could gap or reprice the Monday open
20:32 UTC
Post-spike pullback, lower highs since early NY · RSI 34 · price 1.42613
Lower highs and lows off the 1.4298 jobs-spike high, testing the 50% retracement.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss lifted USDCAD to a spike high at 1.4298 in early NY, where it was rejected just under 1.43. Since then price has printed lower highs along a descending trendline and slipped through the 1.4266 double low, now a broken floor. It is sitting on the session low at 1.4258, the 50% retracement of the jobs spike, with RSI(14) near 34 into the Friday close.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4250, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4266, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4258 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4250, then the 1.4240 london high
M15 close back above the 1.4273 trendline invalidates the lower-highs read
Thin late-NY Friday trade and oil or Iran headlines raise weekend gap risk
Macklem speech Tue 06:05 UTC could materially shift the CAD read
Lower highs off jobs spike high, slipping under post-release range floor.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss spiked USD/CAD from 1.4220 to a 1.4298 spike high at 12:30 UTC. The high was rejected and NY printed a run of lower highs under a descending trendline. Late Friday price has slipped below the 1.4266 range floor toward the fib 50% of the release move at 1.4259, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.4259, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4266, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Hold of 1.4259 fib 50% keeps this a retracement of the jobs spike; a break exposes the 1.4240 london high
M15 close back above the 1.4266 range floor and the descending trendline near 1.4268 neutralises the lower-high sequence
Weekend oil gap risk on the Trump diesel headline, then Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC, could reprice CAD sharply
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4298 spike high; still holding well above pre-data levels.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove a 78-pip breakout to a 1.4298 spike high, rejected just shy of 1.43. NY hours since have been a steady fade along a lower-high trendline. Price slipped through the 1.4266 prior lows to a 1.4261 session low and now sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the spike, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below EMA20.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4250, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4266, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4261 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the fib 61.8 at 1.4250
Retracing the full spike back to the 1.4240 london high would erase most of the post-jobs move
An M15 close above the 1.4266 prior lows and the lower-high trendline would invalidate the fade read
Late-Friday NY trade into the weekend close is thin. Fed's Hammack Mon and BoC Macklem Tue are the next scheduled risks
19:47 UTC
Post-spike pullback, lower highs since the jobs print · RSI 34 · price 1.42635
Lower highs off the 1.4298 LFS spike; 1.4266 range floor lost late NY.
USD/CAD spiked to the 1.4298 LFS high on the -68.3K Canada jobs miss at 12:30 UTC. The spike was rejected, and price spent NY hours fading in a sequence of lower highs. A late-NY slip through the 1.4266 range floor printed a 1.4261 session low, leaving price between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the data leg, with RSI(14) at 34.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4250, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4266, 1.4277, 1.4298
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4266 range floor and the lower highs trendline (~1.4270) would negate the late-NY breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4261 session low exposes the fib 61.8% at 1.4250, then the pre-data 1.4240 London high
The 1.4277 lower high caps the fade; a break above it reopens the 1.4298 LFS high
Friday close is under 90 minutes away; thin liquidity limits follow-through ahead of Macklem on Tue
Lower highs below 1.4298 spike high; post-jobs range floor at 1.4266 broken late NY.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a 65-pip spike to the 1.4298 spike high at the NY open, stalling just shy of 1.43. Since then, lower highs along a descending trendline have pushed price through the 1.4266 range floor to a 1.4261 session low in late NY hours. Price is holding near the 38.2% fib of the 1.4206–1.4298 move, with RSI(14) around 37.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4252, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4266, 1.4278, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4266 range floor and the descending trendline would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4261 session low would expose the 1.4252 fib 50% and the 1.4240 london high
A reclaim of the 1.4278 lower high would reopen the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.43 cap
The Friday close at 21:00 UTC thins liquidity; Macklem on Tue at 06:05 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
Lower highs below 1.4298 spike high; 1.4266 range floor broken in late NY.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove a spike high at 1.4298, rejected just shy of 1.4300. NY hours then printed a sequence of lower highs, and the late-NY slip broke the 1.4266 range floor that had held three times. Price now sits at the ny low near 1.4261, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the jobs leg, with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4250, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4278, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4267 range floor and the lower-high trendline negates the breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4261 ny low exposes the fib 61.8% at 1.4250, then the London high at 1.4240
Recovery through the 1.4278 lower high reopens the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.4300 mark
Thin late-Friday liquidity can distort session-close prints; Macklem (Tue 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
19:04 UTC
Post-spike pullback, lower highs since 12:30 UTC · RSI 36 · price 1.42644
Canada's -68.3K jobs shock drove a 65-pip spike to a 1.4298 spike high at 12:30 UTC, met by rejection just under 1.43. NY hours have since printed lower highs under a descending trendline. Late in the session, price is slipping through the 1.4266 spike floor into the 38.2% fib at 1.4263, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4252, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4266, 1.4273, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 1.4263 exposes the 50% fib at 1.4252 and the london high at 1.4240
Reclaim of the 1.4266 spike floor plus a break of the trendline at the 1.4273 lower high negates the pullback read
A return to the 1.4298 spike high would re-test the repeated 1.43 failure point
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend oil/Iran headlines could gap the open
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC broke USD/CAD out of its 1.4206–1.4240 range and spiked it to the 1.4298 spike high, where it was rejected just shy of 1.43. Late NY is now a tight consolidation: descending highs from the spike high, the latest lower high at 1.4278, and the post-LFS low at 1.4266 holding three times. RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 post-LFS low exposes the 38.2% fib of the rally near 1.4263, then the 1.4240 pre-LFS high
Close above the descending highs line and the 1.4278 lower high reopens the 1.4298 spike high and 1.43
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity; weekend Iran/oil headlines carry gap risk ahead of Macklem on Tue
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove USD/CAD from 1.4220 to a 1.4298 spike high just under 1.4300, clearing the London high at 1.4240. NY hours since have compressed into a 1.4266–1.4290 consolidation, with lower highs at 1.4289 and 1.4278. The range floor, near the 38.2% retrace of the jobs spike, has held three times. Price is pinned at EMA20.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 range floor opens the 50% retrace of the jobs spike near 1.4259, then the London high at 1.4240
Close above the 1.4278 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4298 spike high / 1.4300 back in play
Late-Friday NY session after London close, so thin liquidity; Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the next CAD event risk
Post-data range, lower highs on a flat 1.4266 base.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of the London range, with a spike from 1.4233 to a 1.4298 spike high just shy of 1.43. Since then it has held a 1.4266–1.4289 band, with lower highs pressing into the data low through late NY. Price sits just below EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53, and the 38.2% fib of the London-to-spike move at 1.4263 lies just underneath.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4252, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 data low breaks the consolidation base and exposes the 50% fib at 1.4252, then the London high at 1.4240.
Close above the lower-highs trendline near 1.4278 and the 1.4289 range top would put the 1.4298 spike high and 1.43 back in play.
Late Friday NY trade into the weekly close; Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the next CAD event risk.
News-driven range break, now a tight band with lower highs.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC lifted USD/CAD 65 pips out of the 1.4206–1.4240 Asia/London range to a 1.4298 spike high, just shy of 1.4300. Late in the NY session price is consolidating in a 1.4266–1.4289 band, capped by a line of lower highs. The band low has held twice near the 38.2% retracement of the LFS spike, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4266 band low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 1.4240 London high.
A close above the 1.4278 lower high and the 1.4289 band top reopens the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.4300 area.
Thin Friday liquidity after London close makes moves within the band less reliable.
Tight range 1.4266–1.4289 above broken London high.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a 65-pip spike to the 1.4298 spike high at 12:30 UTC. That move cleared the 1.4240 london high before fading. Since then price has compressed between the 1.4266 range low and 1.4289 range high through late NY hours, holding the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 range low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.4240 london high
Close above the 1.4289 range high reopens the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.4300 handle
Thin Friday-close liquidity; Macklem's Tue Oct 14 speech is the next read on BoC reaction to the jobs miss
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC lifted USD/CAD from the 1.4220 pre-data low through the 1.4240 london high to a 1.4298 spike high, with a rejection just shy of 1.4300. Since then the NY session has compressed between the 1.4266 double low and the 1.4289 post-data hi, holding above the 38.2% of the jobs-spike leg with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 double low exposes the 38.2% jobs-spike fib near 1.4263 and the 1.4240 london high
Close above the 1.4289 post-data hi puts the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.4300 cap back in play
Return below the 1.4220 pre-data low would fully unwind the jobs breakout; thin late-Friday NY liquidity, Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
Jobs-driven breakout, then lower highs over a flat 1.4266 base.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove a 65-pip breakout above the 1.4240 London high, with rejection at the 1.4298 spike high just under 1.4300. Since then price has held a 1.4266 double low under a 1.4289 range top, printing lower highs into late NY with RSI(14) cooled to ~61.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 double low opens a retracement toward the 1.4240 london high and the 38.2% fib of the LFS leg near 1.4263
Close above the 1.4289 range top and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.4298 spike high and 1.4300 back in play
Loss of 1.4240 would put the 1.4206 asian low and the base of the LFS leg in view
Thin late-Friday trade and weekend headline risk; Macklem speaks Tue 06:05 UTC
16:47 UTC
Step higher on data, now flat consolidation · RSI 57 · price 1.4276
Post-spike range 1.4266–1.4289 above prior London high.
Canada's -68.3K jobs shock at 12:30 UTC lifted USDCAD roughly 50 pips off the 1.4240 London high to a 1.4298 jobs spike, with rejection just shy of the 1.4300 cyclical high. Since then price has held a tight consolidation between the 1.4266 range low and the 1.4289 range top during NY hours, above the 23.6–38.2% zone of the Asia low to jobs-spike fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 57.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4289 range top, then the 1.4298 jobs spike, puts the 1.4300 cyclical high in play
Failure to hold the 1.4266 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4263 and the 1.4240 London high
Thin post-London-close Friday trade into the weekend can distort range edges
Tight range 1.4266–1.4289 under the jobs spike high, highs edging lower.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC sent the pair through the London high and up to a 1.4298 spike high, just short of the 1.43 cap. NY hours have since built a 1.4266–1.4289 range. The range floor has held twice near the 38.2% retracement of the spike, while range-top highs are edging lower. RSI(14) is neutral at ~56 and ATR is compressing to ~8 pips after London close.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 range floor opens a deeper retrace of the spike toward the 1.4240 london high
Close above the 1.4289 range top puts the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.43 cap back in play
Loss of 1.4240 would put the 1.4220 pre-data low in view and leave most of the jobs-driven move retraced
No scheduled data in the next 8h; thin late-Friday NY liquidity can exaggerate moves at range edges
16:17 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after data spike · RSI 62 · price 1.42727
Post-release range, lower highs over a flat base.
London cleared the 1.4224 asian high, and the -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to a 1.4298 spike high, where it was rejected just shy of the 1.43 cap. Since then, NY has compressed into a 1.4266–1.4289 range under a run of lower highs. The range low has held twice just above the 38.2% of the jobs-leg fib, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR at about 8.5 pips.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4276, 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 range low and the 38.2% jobs-leg fib exposes the 1.4240 london high
Close above the lower highs line near 1.4276, then the 1.4289 range high, reopens the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.43 cap
Failure to hold 1.4240 would put the 1.4220 asian high back in play and unwind most of the jobs-day breakout
Thin post-London-close Friday liquidity; Macklem and US CPI on Wed are the next event risks for the read
Range break higher at 12:30 UTC, now a 1.4266–1.4289 range.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of the 1.4206–1.4226 Asian range and above the 1.4240 london high, with the move spiking to a 1.4298 spike high just shy of 1.43 before fading. NY hours have since compressed into a 1.4266–1.4289 range with lower highs. The range low is holding near the 38.2% retrace of the jobs spike, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 62.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 range low opens a deeper retrace of the jobs spike toward the 1.4240 london high
Close above the 1.4289 range high and the descending lower-highs line exposes the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.43 cap
Late-Friday NY trade into London close can thin out; a test of the 1.4206 asian low would need a broad USD reversal
The -68.3K Canada jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove a 65-pip spike through the London high to a 1.4298 spike high, just short of 1.4300. Through the NY session price has printed lower highs inside a 1.4266–1.4289 range. It is now back below EMA20 and sitting on the range low, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the jobs spike.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4284, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4266 range low opens the 50% fib near 1.4259, then the 1.4240 london high
Close back above the 1.4284 lower high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.4298 spike high and 1.4300 back in play
A full unwind to the 1.4220 pre-data low would erase the jobs reaction
Late-Friday NY hours with thin liquidity; next scheduled CAD risk is Macklem on Wed
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss lifted USD/CAD through the London high at 1.4240 to a 1.4298 spike high. NY hours have since held a 1.4266–1.4289 range, with lower highs along a descending trendline pressing into the range floor. RSI(14) has cooled to ~58 and price is still above the fib 38.2 at 1.4263.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4252, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4277, 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 range floor and fib 38.2 exposes the fib 50 at 1.4252, then the London high at 1.4240
Close above the 1.4277 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.4289 range top and 1.4298 spike high, with 1.4300 above
Liquidity thins after London close; no scheduled US/CAD data before Monday's Fedspeak
15:04 UTC
Impulsive up-leg, now consolidating below spike high · RSI 66 · price 1.42731
Post-LFS range 1.4266–1.4289 with lower highs, above pre-data range.
The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss at 12:30 UTC broke the London range in one bar, with the spike high at 1.4298 just shy of 1.4300. NY session has since compressed between 1.4266 and 1.4289. The post-lfs low held near the 38.2% fib, while lower highs at 1.4289 and 1.4284 cap the bounce into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4284, 1.4298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4284 lower high puts the 1.4298 spike high and 1.4300 back in play
Break of the 1.4266 post-lfs low opens a deeper fill toward the 1.4240 pre-lfs high
Loss of 1.4240 would put the 1.4220 pre-lfs low and the 50% fib area in focus
No scheduled data before the weekend; Macklem Wed Oct 14 is the next CAD catalyst
Post-data range 1.4266–1.4289 below 1.4298 spike high.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC sent USD/CAD 65 pips higher from 1.4231 to a 1.4298 spike high, just shy of the 1.4300 psych level, clearing the pre-data high at 1.4240 and yesterday's prior high at 1.4252. NY session since then has been a contained 1.4266–1.4289 range: the post-data low held near the 38.2% fib, and a lower high at 1.4284 is capping the upside.
Support: 1.42661, 1.42516, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42836, 1.42982, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4284 lower high puts the 1.4298 spike high and 1.4300 psych level back in play
Break of the 1.4266 post-data low opens a retracement toward the 1.4252 prior high and the 1.4240 pre-data high
Thinning liquidity into the Friday NY close may keep the post-data range intact
14:32 UTC
Uptrend after data spike, momentum cooling · RSI 65 · price 1.42729
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair about 65 pips to a 1.4298 spike high, just shy of the 1.4300 psych level, breaking above the session range. Since then price has held a 1.4266–1.4289 range in NY hours. The data low sits on the 38.2% fib of the spike, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 65.
Support: 1.42661, 1.42516, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42891, 1.42982, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 data low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4259 and the 1.4252 prior high
Close above the 1.4289 range top brings the spike high and 1.4300 psych back into play
A deeper fade toward the 1.4240 pre-data hi would mean most of the jobs move has unwound
Late-Friday NY liquidity thinning into the weekend; Macklem speaks Tue 06:05 UTC
Impulsive breakout above Asian range, lower high since spike.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove a ~65-pip spike from 1.4220 to the 1.4298 spike high. The move cleared the 1.4206–1.4224 Asian range, the 1.4240 London high and Thursday's 1.4252 prior high. Early NY has printed a lower high at 1.4289, while the 1.4266 spike low holds near the 38.2% retrace; RSI(14) has cooled to 62.
Support: 1.42661, 1.42516, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42891, 1.42982, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 spike low exposes the 1.4252 prior high, then the 1.4240 london high
Break of the 1.4289 lower high and 1.4298 spike high puts the 1.4300 psych cap back in play
UoM inflation expectations (prior 4.6%) at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
14:04 UTC
Impulsive up-leg, now pausing · RSI 67 · price 1.42768
Post-data consolidation 1.4266–1.4289 below the spike high.
The CAD jobs shock at 12:30 UTC (-68.3K vs +7K) drove a 65-pip impulse from 1.4220 through the London high at 1.4240. The wick was rejected at the 1.4298 spike high, just under the 1.43 cap. Price is now consolidating between the 1.4266 post-data low (near the 38.2% retrace) and the 1.4289 range top in the first hour of NY.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4298 spike high clears the 1.43 cap and ends the consolidation read
Loss of the 1.4266 post-data low exposes the 50% retrace near 1.4259, then the London high at 1.4240
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break either side of the 1.4266–1.4289 range
Spike high then lower high; pullback testing 38.2% fib.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC broke USD/CAD out of the 1.4206–1.4240 Asia/London range in a 67-pip spike to 1.4298, with rejection just shy of the 1.43 cap. Price has since printed a lower high at 1.4289 and is sitting on the 38.2% fib of the jobs spike, just above the 1.4266 pullback low.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4259, 1.4252
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4266 pullback low opens the 50% fib at 1.4259 and Thursday's 1.4252 prior high, where EMA20 also sits
Close above the 1.4289 lower high puts the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.43 cap back in play
Jobs-driven breakout above London high; tight range under spike high.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove a 65-pip spike from 1.4233 to 1.4298. That move cleared the London high at 1.4240 and the prior high at 1.4253, stopping just shy of the 1.43 cap. Since then, price has compressed between the data low at 1.4272 and a lower high at 1.4289. It is sitting on the 23.6% retracement of the Asian-low-to-spike move.
Support: 1.42719, 1.42533, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42891, 1.42982, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.4272 data low opens a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% fib near 1.4263 and the 1.4253 prior high.
An M15 close above the 1.4289 lower high puts the 1.4298 spike high and the 1.43 cap back in play.
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The rising-lows trendline from the Asian low only comes into play on a full unwind of the jobs spike toward the 1.4240 London high.
13:16 UTC
Impulsive uptrend after data spike, consolidating · RSI 75 · price 1.4278
Range break on Canada jobs, now basing below 1.4300.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC broke USD/CAD out of the Asia/London range (1.4206 to the 1.4240 London high) in a single 67-pip bar, and the spike high at 1.4298 was rejected just shy of the 1.4300 cyclical high. The first hour of NY is basing between the 1.4272 post-data low and the 1.4289 post-data high, about the 23.6% level of the jobs spike fib. RSI(14) has cooled to ~75 and ATR(14) has expanded to ~10 pips.
Support: 1.42719, 1.4239, 1.42198
Resistance: 1.42891, 1.42982
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4298 spike high clears 1.4300 and extends the breakout
Failure to hold the 1.4272 post-data low opens a deeper retrace toward the 1.4240 London high
Break back below the 1.4220 pre-data low and the rising-lows line negates the range break
Data-driven breakout above London high, tight post-spike band.
Canada's -68.3K jobs miss at 12:30 UTC drove a 65-pip spike from 1.4220, through the London high at 1.4240 and the prior high at 1.4268, with a wick rejected at the 1.4298 spike high just under 1.4300. Since then, bars have held a tight band between the data low at 1.4278 and the post-data high at 1.4287, with RSI(14) near 77. The Asian range of 1.4206–1.4224 sits well below, and the pre-data rising lows trendline is intact.
Support: 1.42777, 1.4268, 1.42397
Resistance: 1.42869, 1.42982
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4298 spike high clears the 1.4300 cyclical-high area
Failure to hold the 1.4278 data low exposes the prior high at 1.4268, which aligns with the 38.2% fib
A break back below the London high at 1.4240 would mark the spike as a failed breakout
News-driven range break; higher low at 1.4220 preceded the spike.
Canada's September LFS release at 12:30 UTC drove a ~65-pip spike from 1.4233 to a 1.4298 spike high, just shy of the 1.43 cap flagged in the digest. The move cleared the Asian range, the 1.4240 London high and yesterday's 1.4270 prior high. The bar closed at 1.4284 and held most of the gain. Rising lows from the 1.4206 Asian low to 1.4220 marked a higher low into the release; ATR(14) has jumped to about 9 pips.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4252, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4298
What it said to watch
UoM Sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back below 1.4270 prior high signals the spike fading into the old range
Retrace toward the 1.4252 NY swing high aligns with the 61.8% fib of the LFS spike
M15 close above the 1.4298 spike high puts the 1.43 cap in play
Breakout above London high and prior-day high on data spike.
USDCAD jumped ~55 pips on the 12:30 UTC Canada jobs release. The move cleared the 1.4240 London high and the 1.4270 prior high in a single bar, topping at the 1.4288 spike high. The London session had already built higher lows off the 1.4206 Asian low along rising support, and RSI(14) is now near 81.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4240, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4288, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4270 prior high would mark the spike as a false break
1.4300 round number is the cyclical cap; acceptance above it extends the breakout
Pullback toward the 61.8% fib near 1.4238 lines up with the London high; holding the 1.4220 pre-data low keeps the rising support intact
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday upleg off Asia lows, stalled below session high · RSI 51 · price 1.42273
London broke the Asian range high; rejection at 1.4240, pullback held 1.4220.
London lifted USDCAD out of the 1.4206–1.4224 Asian range to a 1.4240 session high, where it was rejected. The 11:45 UTC pullback low at 1.4220 sits near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-London leg, and buyers stepped in there. Price is now coiling around 1.4227 with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR(14) about 4.6 pips, 15 minutes ahead of Canada's September LFS.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4252, 1.4270
What it said to watch
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC: unemployment f/c 6.5%, employment f/c +7K; a soft print could reopen the 1.4252 swing high and the 1.4270 prior high
M15 close below the 1.4220 pullback low undoes the London breakout and exposes the 1.4206 Asian low
M15 close back above the 1.4240 session high resumes the London upleg
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the read again
12:04 UTC
Intraday recovery off asian low, stalling below session high · RSI 55 · price 1.42286
Asian range broken higher in London; higher lows intact, session high capping.
London lifted the pair from the 1.4206 asian low, through the 1.4226 asian high, to a 1.4240 session high. That high was rejected, and the pullback low at 1.4220 held almost exactly at the 61.8% fib of the London leg before recovering to 1.4229. The market is coiling into the London-NY transition ahead of Canadian jobs. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4226, 1.4220, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4252, 1.4270
What it said to watch
Canada Sept jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4220 pullback low breaks the London higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4206 asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4226 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 1.4240 session high opens the 1.4252 swing high, then the 1.4270 24h high
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are a second volatility point in NY session
HH/HL chain from 1.4206 broken by a three-bar pullback from 1.4240.
USD/CAD fell yesterday and held there, then took out the asian high at 1.4224 early in London. It climbed from the 1.4206 session low to a 1.4240 session high, extending the USD pause after two days of correction. Rejection at the session high over the last hour has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib of that leg near 1.4226, just under EMA20, with ATR only ~4.6 pips ahead of Canadian jobs.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4252
What it said to watch
Canada Sept jobs at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4224 asian high returns price to the Asian range and exposes the 1.4206 session low
M15 close above the 1.4240 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 1.4252 prior swing from yesterday's NY bounce
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC add a second volatility window
Higher lows from 1.4206; Asian range broken higher, retest in progress.
After the soft-USD Asia drift printed the session low at 1.4206, London built a higher-low chain through the Asian high (1.4226) to a session high at 1.4240. Price has slipped back to the 1.4228 pullback low, still above the ema20, the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline, as the market waits on Canada jobs.
Support: 1.42285, 1.4226, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42397, 1.42516
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 GMT (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4226 asian high and rising trendline returns price to the overnight range
Close above the 1.4240 session high opens the 1.4252 prior high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC follow the jobs data
11:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 62 · price 1.42323
Higher lows off the Asia low; London broke the Asian range high, now pulling back.
London lifted the pair out of the Asian range, clearing the asian high at 1.4226 and extending a higher-low chain from the 1.4206 asia low. That reverses part of the spread-driven slide flagged in the digest. The run met rejection at the 1.4240 session high in the last hour and is now testing the rising trendline, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-60s.
Support: 1.42258, 1.4220, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42397, 1.42516
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) is the main risk to this read
An M15 close back below the 1.4226 asian high and the rising trendline returns price to the Asian range, with the 1.4220 round number and the 50–61.8% fib of the London rally below
An M15 close above the 1.4240 session high opens the 1.4252 prior high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
A loss of the 1.4206 asia low would break the higher-low structure
HH/HL chain from 1.4206 session low; Asian range broken higher.
After yesterday's spread-driven slide, demand held the 1.4206 session low twice in the Asian range. London broke above the range and printed a clean HH/HL chain to 1.4239, clearing the 1.4229 break level. The next swing high is 1.4252, with the prior high at 1.4277 above it. RSI(14) is warm at ~69, and ATR is under 5 pips ahead of event risk.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) is likely to reset this structure; ATR will expand
Close back below the 1.4229 break level shifts the read to a failed range break
Loss of the 1.4219 higher low breaks the trendline and the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above 1.4252 swing high exposes the 1.4277 prior high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC add a second volatility window
10:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, RSI warm · RSI 71 · price 1.42356
HH/HL chain since 1.4206; Asian range high broken in London.
USDCAD has rebounded about 30 pips off the 1.4206 session low set late in Asia, despite the digest's firmer-CAD tone. London cleared the 1.4227 Asia high, held a higher low at 1.4219 and is now pressing the 1.4236 session high, just above yesterday's NY cap near 1.4234. The rising trendline from the Asian low is intact, RSI(14) is near 71 and ATR is about 4.5 pips heading into the Canada jobs report.
Support: 1.4227, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4236, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 UTC (employment f/c +7K, UR f/c 6.5%) could materially shift this read. A soft print points toward the 1.4252 swing high; a strong print points back toward the 1.4206 session low.
An M15 close above the 1.4236 session high opens the 1.4252 swing high, then the 1.4277 prior high.
An M15 close back below the 1.4227 Asia high turns the London breakout into a false break.
A break of the 1.4219 higher low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL chain. The 61.8% retracement of the Asia-London rally sits near 1.4218.
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, are a second risk window.
10:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 69 · price 1.42321
London broke above Asian range high, higher lows since.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4226 in its first hour and has stacked higher lows off the 1.4206 Asian low. Price is now pressing the 1.4234 prior pivot, with RSI(14) near 69, as the pair pauses its slide from 1.4277 ahead of Canada's jobs data.
Support: 1.4226, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4234 prior pivot opens the 1.4252 swing high, then yesterday's 1.4277 prior high
Close back below the 1.4226 asian high would mark a false break; loss of the 1.4219 higher low breaks the HL chain
Failure to hold the higher-low line puts the 1.4206 asian low back in play
10:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, stalling · RSI 67 · price 1.42284
Asian range break higher, higher lows into session high.
Yesterday's slide from 1.4277 to the 1.4206 asia low tracked narrowing US-Canada 2y spreads and fading safe-haven USD demand. London then broke the 1.4224 asian high and rallied ~23 pips on a rising trendline of higher lows. Price is now capped repeatedly at the 1.4229 session high, RSI(14) near 67, with the 1.4234 prior swing just above.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4229, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
Canada Sept LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4234 prior swing opens the 1.4252 bounce high from yesterday's NY session
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.4219 london low puts price back inside the Asian range
Retest of the 1.4224 asian high as support keeps the breakout read intact; 50% of the london rally sits near 1.4218
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC add USD-side event risk
Higher highs and higher lows off the 1.4206 session low; Asian range broken to the upside.
USDCAD bounced from the 1.4206 session low late in Asia and cleared the asian high near 1.4224 during the London session, after yesterday's slide on narrower US-Canada 2y spreads and fading Iran risk. Demand has held the 1.4219 pullback low twice since London open, and price is now pressing yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4234 with RSI(14) at 64, not stretched.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
Canada Sept jobs report at 12:30 UTC, then UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4219 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Clean break of the 1.4234 prior high opens the 1.4252 swing high from yesterday's NY bounce
Loss of the 1.4206 session low returns price to the downtrend that ran through yesterday's NY session
Higher lows off the 1.4206 low, capped at 1.4229 below the 50% retrace.
Yesterday's slide from the 1.4252 swing high, driven by narrowing US-Canada 2y spreads, bottomed at the 1.4206 asia low. London has since broken the 1.4224 asian high and printed a chain of higher lows, but the advance has stalled at the 1.4229 session high, right at the 50% retrace of that slide. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) about 4.6 pips, so bars are small ahead of the Canada jobs data.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4229, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4229 session high puts the 61.8% fib at 1.4234 in play, then the 1.4252 swing high
Slip back below the 1.4224 asian high and the 1.4219 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 1.4206 asia low reinstates the lower-low sequence
Canada September jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC add a second US-side volatility window
09:32 UTC
London recovery off Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 64 · price 1.42264
Asian range broken higher, higher-low chain into session high.
London lifted USDCAD out of the 1.4206–1.4224 Asian range on a higher-low chain. Price is now stalling at the 1.4229 session high, which sits on the 50% retracement of yesterday's 1.4252–1.4206 leg. That leg came from the NY-session slide as US-Canada 2y spreads narrowed and safe-haven USD demand faded on Iran de-escalation.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4229, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4219 higher low breaks the London trendline and puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 1.4229 session high clears the 50% fib and opens the 61.8% fib at 1.4234, then the 1.4252 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4206 Asian low confirms a lower low toward the 1.4200 handle
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) and US UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 05:30 UTC low; London broke above the Asian range.
Price has built higher lows off the 1.4206 asian low. The London open cleared the 1.4226 asian high, and the 1.4219 pullback low held on the retest. Price now sits just under the 1.4234 bounce high from yesterday's late NY session, with RSI(14) near 71, as CAD's bounce from the 1.42 handle stalls ahead of Canada LFS.
Support: 1.4226, 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4234 bounce high opens the 1.4252 rebound high, with the 1.4277 prior high above
A break of the 1.4219 pullback low and the higher-low trendline puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.4206 asian low the next reference
Falling back below the 1.4226 asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 66 · price 1.42253
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, holding just above the Asian range top.
USDCAD slid from 1.4264 to 1.4220 in yesterday's NY session as safe-haven USD demand faded on Trump's Iran comments, then set an Asian low at 1.4206. The London leg off that low has built higher lows along rising support and cleared the Asian high at 1.4226 to a 1.4229 session high. RSI(14) is at 66 and ATR is about 5 pips ahead of Canada's LFS.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4229, 1.4252
What it said to watch
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (UR f/c 6.5%, +7K) could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, are a second volatility point
M15 close below the 1.4219 swing low breaks rising support and exposes the 1.4206 asian low
M15 close above the 1.4229 session high opens the 1.4252 ny high
Higher lows since Asian low, capped below London high.
USD/CAD extended its slide into an Asian low at 1.4206 as the softer USD and fading Iran risk premium weighed. London open lifted price through the Asian range to a London high at 1.4227. The pullback held the fib 38.2 of that London leg at 1.4219, keeping the rising trendline of higher lows intact; RSI(14) is at 65.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4227 london high opens the 1.4252 swing high from yesterday's NY session
Break below 1.4219 fib 38.2 and the rising trendline puts the 1.4206 asian low back in play
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Flat after yesterday's decline, London bounce stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.42192
Asian range 1.4206–1.4224, London poked above and faded back inside.
Early London lifted USDCAD off the 1.4206 session low to a 1.4227 london high, briefly clearing the Asian range top before rejection. Price is now back at the 38.2% fib near 1.4219, with the 1.4216 london hl underneath. Trade is two-way: USD is easing on fading Iran risk and CAD sits near fair value ahead of LFS, and ATR is only ~4.5 pips.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4252
What it said to watch
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
A close below the 1.4216 london hl exposes the 1.4206 session low
Acceptance above the 1.4227 london high reopens the 1.4252 prior high
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC
Lower highs since yesterday's London high; higher lows off the 1.4206 session low.
Yesterday's NY selloff and the Asia extension to a 1.4206 session low kept the lower-high chain intact as USD retreated on Iran de-escalation. London has lifted price off rising lows into the 1.4227 asian high, which sits on the 38.2% retrace of the 1.4252–1.4206 leg.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4206, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 ny range top clears the 38.2–50% retrace zone and exposes the 1.4252 swing high
Break of the rising lows and the 1.4216 london low puts the 1.4206 session low back in play
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) could push price through 1.4191 fair value or back toward the 1.4252 swing high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
08:02 UTC
Short-term recovery off Asian low, momentum cooling · RSI 61 · price 1.42218
Higher lows since 1.4206; Asian range high broken, now retested.
Higher lows have built from the 1.4206 Asian low as USD softened on Iran de-escalation. London open broke the Asian high at 1.4222 and ran to a London high of 1.4227, and price is now back retesting the Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 61 and ATR is about 4.4 pips, a compressed range ahead of Canadian jobs.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4216, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4234
What it said to watch
Canada Sept jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5% UR) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4216 higher low breaks the rising-lows chain and reopens the 1.4206 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.4234 prior swing extends the London breakout
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are second-tier risk for the NY session
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce testing it · RSI 63 · price 1.42227
Lower highs from 1.4277; first higher-low chain off 1.4206 Asian low.
USDCAD bled from 1.4277 through a chain of lower highs as safe-haven USD faded and the US-Canada 2y spread narrowed, bottoming at the 1.4206 Asian low. London open lifted price above the 1.4224 Asian range top to a 1.4227 session high, building a higher-low sequence from 1.4216. Price is stalling between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 1.4252–1.4206 leg, with the 1.4234 swing high just above.
Support: 1.4216, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42269, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4252 lower high in view
Close back below the 1.4216 higher low returns price into the Asian range
Loss of the 1.4206 Asian low resumes the lower-low chain
Canada Sept jobs at 12:30 UTC and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The USD unwind on Iran de-escalation carried the Asia session to a fresh low at 1.4206. London open then lifted price on a tight rising line of higher lows into the upper half of the 1.4206–1.4226 Asian range. RSI(14) is at 64, with the London high at 1.4222 capping for now and the Asian high at 1.4226 just above.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4226, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian high 1.4226 opens the NY bounce high near 1.4252
Break of the rising line and the London HL at 1.4216 puts the Asian low at 1.4206 back in play
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, UR 6.5%) and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact from 1.4252; London open bounce off asian low.
USD softness on Iran de-escalation drove a lower-high grind from 1.4252 down to the asian low at 1.4206. London open bounced 15 pips to a session high at 1.4221, but price is stalling at EMA50 near the 38.2% retrace, still inside the 1.4206–1.4226 Asian range. The 1.4191 fair value zone sits just below.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4226, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4226 asian high breaks the lower-high chain toward the 1.4252 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.4206 asian low exposes 1.4191 fair value
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, UR 6.5%) could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are a second USD-side risk
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing inside Asian range · RSI 53 · price 1.42163
Lower highs from 1.4277; Asian range 1.4206–1.4224, mid-range at London open.
Lower highs have held since yesterday's 1.4277 London high. The NY session sell-off came as Iran de-escalation cut the USD haven bid, and Asia extended it to a 1.4206 Asian low. A 14-pip bounce into London open leaves price mid-range, just under the Asian high and 38.2% fib confluence at 1.4224, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42244, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 Asian high and the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 1.4252 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.4206 Asian low opens the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4191 fair value zone
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277 intact; late-Asia bounce inside 1.4206–1.4226 Asian range.
Thursday's slide from the 1.4277 London session high ran through NY as the Iran-talk USD unwind hit, and the lower-high chain held into an Asian low at 1.4206. Into London open, a late-Asia rebound has price back at 1.4220, pressing the Asian high and the 23.6% level of the decline fib. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is only ~3.5 pips, so the session range is still compressed.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4226 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.4234 swing high / decline fib 38.2%
Lower high at 1.4252 caps the sequence; a break above it negates the lower-high structure
Failure back below the 1.4206 asian low extends lower lows toward the 1.4191 fair value area
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are a second volatility window
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 56 · price 1.4216
Lower highs from 1.4277; Asian range 1.4206–1.4226.
Lower highs since the 1.4277 day high have stepped down through 1.4252, the NY swing high, as USD sold on Trump's Iran no-strike remarks. Asia compressed into a 1.4206–1.4226 range, and early London is bouncing off the 1.4206 Asian low into the lower half of that range, still under the 23.6% fib of the 1.4277 decline.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4252, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4226 Asian high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the NY swing high at 1.4252 back into view
Failure to hold the 1.4206 Asian low exposes the 1.4191 fair value area
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and US UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277; mid-Asian range 1.4206–1.4224 ahead of London open.
The USD-led slide from Thursday's 1.4277 peak, driven by Iran-talk risk-on, ground lower through Asia. The 1.4206 session low swept the earlier 1.4208 low before a quick bounce to 1.4217. Price is hovering just under that bounce high near mid-Asian range with ATR(14) compressed to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4225, 1.4234
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4225 asia high, near the 23.6% fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Late ny high at 1.4234 caps any extension of the bounce
Failure to hold the 1.4206 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows since 1.4277; Asian range compressing.
Steady lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.4277 London high as the Iran-pause unwind drained USD. Asia printed a fresh asia low at 1.4206 before bouncing into the 1.4215 lower high and descending trendline. Bars have compressed to about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42154, 1.42258, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high chain; asian high at 1.4226 and swing high at 1.4234 sit above
Failure to hold the 1.4206 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277; fresh session low in late Asia.
Lower highs since yesterday's 1.4277 London high. The NY session USD unwind on the Iran pause dragged the pair through 1.4220, and Asia extended to a fresh session low at 1.4206 ahead of the London open. RSI(14) at 36 and ATR near 2.7 pips point to a slow drift rather than impulsive selling, with the asia swing at 1.4215 capping bounces.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42154, 1.42268, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 asia swing breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the drift
Failure to hold the 1.4206 session low and the 1.4200 round number exposes the 1.4191 fair value area
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read; a weak print risks a rebound through the 1.4227 asia high toward the 1.4234 swing high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are a second volatility point for USD
The USD-led slide on Iran-talk risk-on extended the lower-high/lower-low chain off yesterday's 1.4277 high. Asia pushed to the 1.4208 asian low before stalling in a 7-pip box, capped at the 1.4215 range top near the 38.2% of the Asian drop fib. Late Asia now, price pressing the lows ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42154, 1.42261, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4208 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number and 1.4191 fair value
Recovery above 1.4215 range top and 1.4226 asian high breaks the Asian downswing; 1.4234 lower high next
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday NY; tight Asian box above 1.4208.
A USD-led slide on the Iran-pause headlines has carved lower highs from the 1.4277 Thursday NY high, with the 1.4252 swing high capping the descending trendline. Late Asia, price broke the 1.4226 Asian high-to-low range down to an asian low of 1.4208 and is now compressing in a 7-pip box below 1.4215, ATR(14) only ~2.6 pips.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.42261, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4208 asian low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4215 box top and the descending trendline shifts focus to the 1.4226 asian high and the 38.2% fib near 1.4234
London open typically expands the current ~7-pip box
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are a USD swing factor
Lower highs and lower lows, tight late-Asia box 1.4208–1.4215.
The lower-high chain from yesterday's 1.4277 London high carried through NY and into Asia, with the USD-led slide on Trump's Iran pause printing a 1.4208 asian low. Since then the pair has held in a 7-pip box under the 1.4215 range top, which sits just below the falling trendline. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR(14) about 3 pips, showing momentum has drained ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42154, 1.42244, 1.4234
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4208 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
M15 close above the 1.4215 range top and the falling trendline challenges the downtrend read, with the 1.4224 asian high and the 1.4234 lower high next
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4277; tight late-Asia compression above the asian low.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the 1.4277 high. The slide extended to a 1.4208 asian low as Iran-talk risk-on drained safe-haven USD demand. Late Asia has since compressed into a 7-pip band capped at the 1.4215 micro high, holding only a shallow retrace of the lower-high fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR(14) about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42154, 1.42258, 1.42516
What it said to watch
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read; a negative print would challenge the lower-high chain
M15 close above the 1.4226 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4252 lower high next
Failure to hold the 1.4208 asian low extends lower lows toward the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4191 fair value
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, are a second volatility window for USD
Lower highs from 1.4252 swing high; tight Asian range 1.4208–1.4215.
USD-led selling on the Iran-talk headlines produced lower highs from the 1.4252 swing high, and Asia extended to a 1.4208 asia low. Price has since compressed into a 7-pip box capped by the 1.4215 asia high late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR at about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4226, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4208 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery through the 1.4226 overnight hi opens the 50% fib near 1.4230 and the 1.4252 swing high
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading in late Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.4213
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.4277 London high; tight base above the Asian low.
Asia session extended the lower-high sequence and broke below the prior NY lows near 1.4216, printing a 1.4208 Asian low as the Iran-talk unwind drained safe-haven USD demand. Price is now basing in a 7-pip band under the lower highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips. Late Asia, with London open about 3h away.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4224, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4216 broken low and the lower highs trendline (~1.4218) neutralises the Asia break
A rebound through the 1.4224 Asian high, also 38.2% of the ny-asia leg, opens the 1.4252 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4208 Asian low exposes the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.42772; Asia compressing above 1.42076 low.
USD faded through London and NY in a chain of lower highs from 1.42772 as Trump's Iran no-strike pledge drained haven demand. Asia printed a fresh low at the 1.42076 asian low and is now compressing just above it, inside the 1.42076–1.42261 Asian range. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42261, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.42076 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.42000 round number
Reclaim of the lower-high trendline and the 1.42261 asian high breaks the descending sequence; the 1.42340 lower high and 38.2% drop fib sit above
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5% unemployment) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY; Asia broke below the late-NY range, now basing above session low.
The USD fade on Trump's Iran-talk remarks took USDCAD below the 1.4217–1.4226 late-NY range in Asia, printing a session low at 1.4208 under the 1.4252 and 1.4234 lower highs. Price is now basing in a tight 1.4211–1.4215 band just under EMA20, RSI(14) near 42, with the 1.4219 fair value area and a descending resistance line overhead.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42191, 1.42261, 1.4234
What it said to watch
Canada LFS at 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.4226 range top, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.4252 lower high move, puts price back in the prior range and tests the descending resistance
Failure to hold 1.4208 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of 1.4234 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.42151
Lower highs from 1.4277; Asia low 1.4208, shallow bounce.
USD-led slide from the 1.4277 London high carried into Asia after the Iran-talks headlines drained safe-haven demand, printing an Asia low at 1.4208. Mid-Asia bounce is stalling at the 38.2% retracement near 1.4215 and testing EMA20, with the 61.8% fib at 1.4219 and the descending trendline overhead.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4219, 1.4224, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 asia high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.4234 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4208 asia low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.4200 round number in play
Canada jobs (LFS) at 12:30 UTC, f/c +7K and 6.5% unemployment, could materially shift this read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are a second volatility point for USD
Lower highs and lower lows; tight pause above the Asian low.
The pair has slid from the 1.4277 London high in a lower-high chain, with the NY session lower high at 1.4252. The move is USD-led after Trump called the Iran talks 'productive', which drained safe-haven demand. The Asia session broke the 1.4216 prior low and printed an Asian low at 1.4208; price is now compressing just above it, with RSI(14) near 36 and range shrinking (ATR ~4 pips).
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4226, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4208 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4216 prior low, then the 1.4226 asian high (near the fib 38.2%), would break the micro lower-high sequence
Above the 1.4252 lower high, the fib retracement is fully reversed and the downtrend read is void
Canada LFS at 12:30 GMT (f/c +7K, 6.5%) and US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 1.4277; Asia broke below NY low, now compressing.
USD/CAD slipped through yesterday's NY low at 1.4217 during the Asia session to a 1.4208 Asian low, as Trump's Iran remarks drained safe-haven USD demand. Lower highs since the 1.4277 London high are intact, with the latest lower high at 1.4226 near the 38.2% fib of the decline. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 35, holding a tight 1.4208–1.4214 band for the past hour.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42168, 1.42261
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4208 asian low exposes the 1.4200 round number and the ~1.4191 fair-value area
M15 close back above the 1.4217 ny low turns the Asia break into a false break; the 1.4226 lower high and 38.2% fib sit above
Canada LFS at 12:30 GMT and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4277; Asia broke under the late-NY base.
USD/CAD extended Thursday's NY slide from the 1.4277 high as the dollar faded on Trump's no-strike pledge. Asia session broke the 1.4216 broken low and printed a 1.4208 asian low. Price is now holding in a tight 1.4209–1.4213 band late in Asia, with RSI(14) near 30 and the descending trendline capping each bounce.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42165, 1.4226, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4216 broken low undercuts the range break read
Loss of the 1.4208 asian low exposes the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's ~1.4191 fair value
Clearance of the descending trendline and the 1.4226 asian high would break the lower-high chain; 1.4234 swing high is next above
Canada jobs report at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5% unemployment) could materially shift this read
Iran strike-plan follow-up headlines could revive the USD safe-haven bid
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY-session drop; Asia broke below the late-NY range.
USDCAD has held a lower-high chain since Thursday's NY-session slide on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge. Asia broke the 1.4216–1.4226 range and set an asian low at 1.4208, and the bounce stalled at the 1.4214 bounce high. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched below both EMAs, with the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value just below.
Support: 1.42076, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42139, 1.42258, 1.4234
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.4208 asian low exposes the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4191 fair value
Close above the 1.4214 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline, then the 1.4226 asian high, breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.4234 swing high from NY hours invalidates the intraday downtrend
Follow-ups to the NYT Iran strike-plan report could revive the safe-haven USD bid
LH/LL chain from 1.4277 London high; Asia broke below the overnight 1.4216–1.4226 range.
Sellers have capped every bounce since the 1.4277 London high, as USD faded on Trump's no-strike pledge. Each rally since has stopped at a lower high under the lower-high trendline. Asia session broke the 1.4216 prior low and printed a 1.4208 session low, with RSI(14) near 31; the bounce off that low is stalling just under the broken level.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4226, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 1.4226 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.4234 swing high (fib 38.2% of the 1.4277–1.4208 leg) sits above
Lower-high trendline near 1.4216 coincides with the prior low — rejection or break there defines the next swing
Canada jobs (LFS) at 12:30 UTC with UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 1.4277; Asia broke below late-NY range.
Lower highs since the 1.4277 London high. NY cut through 1.4250 as USD faded on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge, and the bounce stalled at the 1.4252 swing high. Asia has slipped below the 1.4216–1.4226 late-NY range to a 1.4208 session low. RSI(14) is near 31 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips, so the tape is quiet but directional, with the round number at 1.4200 and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value just below.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4226, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4216 range floor turns the break into a false break
Close above the 1.4226 range top and the lower-highs trendline breaks the LH chain; 38.2% fib sits there
Failure to hold the 1.4208 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number and 1.4191 fair value
Follow-up to the NYT Iran strike-plan report could revive haven USD demand
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC and US UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.42108
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4277; NY-afternoon range floor broken.
Asia session slipped beneath the 1.4216–1.4217 prior floor that held through NY afternoon and is printing a fresh asia low at 1.4211, extending the selloff from Thursday's 1.4277 London high. The NY leg tracked the USD give-back on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge. RSI(14) is near 30 and ATR is compressed at about 4 pips, so the grind lower is slow.
Support: 1.42107, 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42165, 1.42258, 1.42516
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.4216 prior floor would turn the Asian range break into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.4226 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline
A bounce that stalls near the 1.4252 lower high (61.8% of the selloff) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number exposes Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC, UoM at 14:00 UTC and any follow-up to the NYT Iran strike-plan report could reset this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4277; late-NY box broken lower in early Asia.
A lower-high chain has formed since the 1.4277 London-session peak, after the NY-session slide on the USD pullback tied to Trump's Iran no-strike pledge. The 1.4216–1.4226 box topped by the asian high broke lower at the Asia open and printed a fresh session low at 1.4211, with RSI(14) near 28 and the 1.4200 round number just below.
Support: 1.42107, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.4226 asian high keeps the lower-high chain intact
An M15 close above the 1.4234 swing high and the descending trendline from the 1.4252 lower high breaks the sequence
Loss of the 1.4200 round number exposes Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value; a reclaim of the 1.4211 session low's range suggests stalling
NYT Iran strike-plan follow-up could revive haven USD; Canada LFS 12:30 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum soft · RSI 37 · price 1.42144
Lower highs since 1.4277; Asia breaking below overnight range floor.
NY's slide from 1.4277 came as USD faded on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge, and the pair then held a tight 1.4216–1.4234 range into rollover. Asia session has slipped below the 1.4216 range floor to 1.4214, with lower highs capping the tape. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR about 4 pips; the 1.4200 round number and Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value sit just below.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4216 range floor would turn the Asian break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number exposes 1.4191 fair value
Close above the 1.4234 swing high and the lower-highs line negates the downtrend read, with the 1.4252 ny rebound high above
Follow-up headlines on the NYT Iran strike-plan report, plus crude moves, could jolt USD before the London open
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277; Asian range pinned near the lows.
USD/CAD was sold from the 1.4277 London high through the NY open as the dollar faded on Trump's Iran no-strike pledge, and has printed a lower-high chain since, capped by the 1.4234 swing high. The Asian session is coiling in a 1.4215–1.4226 band, with price pressing the asian low and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.4215, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4215 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Reclaim of the 1.4226 asian high and the 1.4234 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Fib 50–61.8% of the 1.4277 drop sits near the 1.4252 ny bounce high, the next cap on any recovery
Canada jobs (12:30 UTC) and UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; Iran strike-plan headlines are a live haven-USD risk
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening at the lows · RSI 43 · price 1.42165
Lower highs from 1.4277; tight Asian range pinned to session lows.
USD/CAD was rejected at the 1.4277 session high late in London. The NY session then sold off through 1.4250 into the 1.4220s as USD faded on Trump's no-strike pledge and softer crude, and the 1.4252 bounce high held as the last lower high in the NY selloff fib. The Asian session is compressing in a ~10-pip box between the 1.4216 Asian low and the 1.4226 Asian high, with price pressing the floor and ATR down near 4 pips.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4234, 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; 1.4252 bounce high above, near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib
Canada LFS jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC, ~12h) and Iran strike-plan headline risk could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.4277 London high carried USD/CAD lower through NY as USD faded on Trump's no-Iran-strike pledge. The 1.4252 lower high and 1.4234 swing high then capped the bounces. Early Asia is compressing in a 10-pip band just above the 1.4216 range low, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR down to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.42158, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.42265, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 range low extends the lower-low chain toward Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Reclaim of the 1.4226 range top and the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib sits at 1.4239, with the 1.4252 lower high above it
Overnight NYT Iran strike-plan headlines, then Canada LFS (Fri 12:30 GMT), could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 43 · price 1.42191
Lower highs from 1.4277, tight 1.4216–1.4227 range near lows.
Lower highs since the 1.4277 London high. The NY leg broke below the Asian range low at 1.4251 as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.4216–1.4227 range just above the session low, with lows stepping down only marginally and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.42158, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42268, 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery through the 1.4227 range top and the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
1.4252 lower high sits near the 61.8% fib of the 1.4277–1.4216 drop
Canada LFS (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4277, tight base 1.4216–1.4234.
London's push above the Asian range high failed at 1.4277, and the NY sell-off took price to 1.4223 as the oil and Iran de-escalation fade pulled USD off its highs. That left lower highs at the 1.4252 bounce high and the 1.4234 swing high. Into the new Asia session price is compressing in a narrow 1.4216–1.4234 band, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.42158, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.42516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery above the 1.4234 swing high breaks the post-NY lower-high sequence, with the 1.4252 bounce high (near the 50% fib of the NY sell-off) next
Canada LFS (12:30 UTC) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) on Friday are the main event risk; the Asia and early London range may stay compressed until then