USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at Friday high · RSI 55 · price 1.41141
Higher lows since Wednesday; equal highs capping at 1.4137.
The rally from Wednesday's 1.3929 low ran roughly 208 pips. Its largest leg came on Friday's jobs split, with strong US payrolls against Canadian job losses. Monday's Asia–London dip held the 1.4077 monday low, well above the 38.2% fib near 1.4058, before NY hours lifted price back to 1.4136 as CAD tracked weaker oil even with the DXY softer. That move printed equal highs with Friday's 1.4137, and price has since been rejected there, slipping back below the 1.4129 fri close to sit on the EMA(20) at 1.4112 with RSI(14) near 55, still above the higher-lows trendline from Thursday.
Support: 1.4112, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 equal highs extends the post-jobs leg; repeated rejection there keeps the cap intact
Failure to hold the 1.4077 monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and leaves a double-top shape at 1.4137
Pre-nfp low at 1.4052, just below the 38.2% fib, is the deeper pullback reference for the week's impulse
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC Tue is the CAD-side risk to the structure
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under week high · RSI 60 · price 1.41169
Higher lows since Wednesday, capped at 1.4137.
USDCAD has carved higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 low. The dominant leg came in Friday's NY session, when the US payrolls beat and Canada's jobs miss lifted price off the 1.4052 nfp base to the 1.4137 week high. Monday's Asia and London drift found demand at 1.4077, the monday low, between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the week's rally. The NY session then rebuilt to 1.4136 as oil slid, but two Monday tests stalled just under the week high and price is now sitting on EMA(20) near 1.4111 with RSI(14) easing back toward 60.
Support: 1.4111, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 week high breaks the cap and puts the 1.4150 round number in view
Sustained trade below EMA(20) near 1.4111 exposes the monday low at 1.4077 and the higher-low trendline
Failure to hold 1.4077 breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the 1.4052 nfp base, near the 38.2% retracement
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read, with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC and WTI direction remain the CAD-side swing factors
Higher lows since Wednesday; twin highs capping at 1.4136-37.
USD/CAD has built higher lows off Wednesday's 1.3929 low. Friday's NY-open jobs split, a US payrolls beat against a Canadian miss, drove the main leg through 1.4100 to a 1.4137 week high. Monday's Asia-into-London dip held the monday low at 1.4077, above the fib 38.2 at 1.4058, before an oil-led NY rally retested the week high and was rejected. Price now sits back below the 1.4129 prior close and just above EMA(20) near 1.4111, with RSI(14) cooled to around 52.
Support: 1.4111, 1.4077, 1.4058
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.4137 week high clears the twin-high rejection and resumes the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4077 monday low breaks the higher-low trendline and would complete a double top, exposing the fib 38.2 at 1.4058
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 1.4111 shifts the read toward a range under 1.4137
US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC, Waller at 09:00 UTC) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday's low, stalling at week high · RSI 58 · price 1.41225
Higher low at 1.4077, triple cap at 1.4136–1.4137.
The 208-pip advance off Wednesday's 1.3929 low found its dominant leg on Friday's 13:00 UTC bar, when the US payrolls beat landed against a Canadian jobs miss. Monday gapped lower and dipped to 1.4077 in the London session, holding above the 23.6% fib of the Wed-Fri rally. NY session buying then filled the gap and retested the 1.4137 week high, with CAD tracking softer oil even as the DXY slipped. Two Monday attempts were capped at that level, while price holds above EMA(20), which sits near the 1.4110 weekly open, and RSI(14) sits near 58.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 week high breaks the cap and opens the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the 1.4110 weekly open and EMA(20) turns focus to the 1.4077 Monday low and the higher lows trendline
Break below the 1.4052 pre-NFP low unwinds Friday's payrolls leg toward the 38.2% fib of the Wed-Fri rally near 1.4058
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC), US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) and BoC deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 67 · price 1.41354
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 low; Monday dip held above weekly open zone.
The Wednesday 1.3929 low gave way to a 200-pip impulse into Friday's 1.4137 high. The split jobs data (US NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) drove the move off the 1.4052 NFP base. Monday opened below Friday's close and dipped to 1.4077 during the London session, holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of that impulse. A NY-session reversal then lifted price back to retest the Friday high, with lower oil weighing on CAD even as the DXY slipped. RSI(14) is near 67 without a fresh extreme, and price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) after reclaiming the weekly open at 1.4110.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 Friday high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4110 weekly open puts the 1.4077 Monday low and the higher-low trendline back in focus
A break below the 1.4077 Monday low snaps the higher-low trendline; below the 1.4052 NFP base the impulse retracement deepens past 38.2%
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC and WTI direction remain the CAD-side drivers
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, retesting Friday high · RSI 63 · price 1.41289
Higher lows intact since Thursday; equal highs near 1.4137.
USD/CAD extended the Thursday–Friday leg off 1.3942 after Friday's US payrolls beat and Canada jobs miss. The leg peaked at the 1.4137 Friday high. Monday's Asia-to-London pullback held a shallow 1.4077 Monday low, above the 38.2% fib of the NFP leg, keeping the higher-lows trendline intact. A NY session rebound, aided by sliding crude, has lifted price back above EMA(20) and the 1.4110 weekly open into the Friday high, with RSI(14) near 63, well below Friday's post-NFP reading.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 Friday high clears the equal highs and exposes the 1.4150 round number
Repeated failure at 1.4137 leaves an equal-highs cap, with the 1.4110 weekly open the first test below
Break of the 1.4077 Monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.4052 nfp base back in view
US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, retesting Friday high · RSI 58 · price 1.4129
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 low; shallow Monday pullback held.
Friday's NFP beat and Canada's jobs miss reversed the whole midterm-driven drop from Wednesday's 1.3929 low, and the pair has printed higher lows since the 1.4052 pre-NFP low. Monday's dip through Asia and London held 1.4077, a shallow pullback well above the 38.2% fib of the rally. The NY session then reclaimed the weekly open and EMA(20) to retest Friday's high at 1.4137, with RSI(14) near 58 and short of overbought.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 Friday high opens the 1.4150 psych level; a second rejection there would leave a double top in play
A move back below the 1.4110 weekly open and EMA(20) turns the NY rebound into a range
Failure to hold the 1.4077 Monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes 1.4052
Trump–Qatar PM meeting and oil headlines today, then US CPI (Tue 13:30 GMT) and BoC Summary of Deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Uptrend, retesting week high · RSI 69 · price 1.41305
Higher lows from Wednesday's 1.3929 low; Monday dip held above 38.2% fib.
The week's rally from Wednesday's 1.3929 low built through Thursday's NY session. It then spiked on Friday's jobs split (US 165K vs Canada -4.7K) to a 1.4137 week high. Monday gapped lower and drifted to a 1.4077 monday low in London, holding above the 38.2% retracement of the week's rally fib (~1.4058) and keeping the higher lows intact. The NY session lifted price back above EMA(20) to retest the week high despite broad USD softness, with sliding crude weighing on CAD. RSI(14) sits near 69, cooler than the 80+ reading at Friday's high.
Support: 1.4103, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 week high opens the 1.4150 round number
Rejection at the week high and a slip back below ema20 near 1.4103 would put the 1.4077 monday low and the higher lows line in play
Loss of the 1.4052 pre-nfp low and the 38.2% fib breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Barkin today 17:15 UTC, US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, Monday pullback held · RSI 54 · price 1.41177
Higher lows since Thursday; shallow Monday flag below the week high.
Uptrend since Thursday's 1.3942 higher low. The dominant leg came in Friday's NY session, when the US payrolls beat and Canada's jobs miss lifted the pair through 1.41 to a 1.4137 week high. Monday gapped ~20 pips lower to a 1.4110 weekly open and drifted to the 1.4077 Monday low through Asia and London, holding above the 38.2% fib and the pre-NFP low, then reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.4100 into the NY session with soft oil keeping CAD heavy; price now sits just under the 1.4129 gap fill with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4129 gap fill and the 1.4137 week high resumes the uptrend sequence and ends the flag
Failure to hold the 1.4110 weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4100 puts the 1.4077 Monday low back in play
Break below the 1.4052 pre-NFP low and the rising support line, near the 38.2% fib, invalidates the higher-low structure
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT today: progress on Iran talks and a further oil slide feed directly into this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 low; Monday retracement holding above the 38.2% fib.
The week's dominant move ran from Thursday's NY session into Friday. The NFP beat and Canada's jobs miss drove a 45-pip H1 bar and carried the pair to the 1.4137 week high, completing a clean impulse off the 1.3929 Wednesday low. Monday opened with a gap down to 1.4110, the weekly open, then drifted to the 1.4077 monday low through Asia and London as softer USD and oil headlines weighed. That low held above the 38.2% retracement near 1.4058. Price is back at EMA(20) around 1.4096 into the NY open with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, and the lower highs from the 1.4128 monday high form a flag pressed against the pullback line.
Support: 1.4096, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close above the pullback line and the 1.4110 weekly open puts the 1.4128 monday high and 1.4137 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4077 monday low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4058 and the 1.4052 pre-nfp low
Sustained trade below ema20 with RSI(14) failing near 50 would turn the flag into a deeper retracement
Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT and the oil reaction could move CAD within the next few bars
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and BoC deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after impulse · RSI 55 · price 1.40987
Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday lower highs now broken.
USD/CAD ran a ~208-pip impulse from Wednesday's 1.3929 low to Friday's 1.4137 high. The largest leg came in Friday's NY session on the US NFP beat and the Canadian jobs miss. Monday gapped below Friday's close and drifted through Asia and London to the monday low at 1.4077 as USD pared gains on Iran-deal hopes, a pullback that stalled between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements with RSI(14) bottoming in the mid-40s. Price has since closed above the Monday lower-highs line and is sitting on EMA(20) just under the weekly open at 1.4110, a shallow flag shape within the uptrend.
Support: 1.4095, 1.4077, 1.40519
Resistance: 1.41097, 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 1.4110 brings the monday high 1.4128 and friday high 1.4137 back into play
Failure back below the monday low at 1.4077 negates the flag read and exposes the pre-nfp low near 1.4052, close to the 38.2% retracement
Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed speakers today could shift USD and oil before NY close
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and BoC deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC are the next catalysts that could reset this structure
Higher highs from Wednesday's low; Monday lower highs into a retest.
USD/CAD rose about 208 pips from Wednesday's 1.3929 low to a 1.4137 week high late Friday. The Thursday NY rally and Friday's NFP beat against a Canadian jobs miss drove the nfp impulse. Monday opened with a gap below the 1.4129 friday close, then sagged through Asia and London to a 1.4077 monday low, retesting Friday's pre-NFP high near the 23.6% retrace with EMA(50) just beneath. Price sits fractionally under EMA(20) at 1.4094 and the Monday lower highs line, while RSI(14) has recovered to ~50 from the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4052, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4077 monday low exposes the 1.4052 pre-nfp low and the 38.2% retrace of the nfp impulse
Loss of 1.4052 puts Thursday's breakout base at the 1.4000 round number back in play
Reclaim of ema20 and the Monday lower highs line near 1.4094 reopens the 1.4129 friday close gap and the 1.4137 week high
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40 GMT, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD and oil tone
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Impulse to Friday high, weekend gap lower, Monday lower highs below EMA20.
USD/CAD ran roughly 208 pips from Wednesday's 1.3929 low to a 1.4137 friday high. The steepest leg came at Friday's NY open on the NFP beat (165K vs 65K) set against Canada's -4.7K jobs print. Monday gapped lower at the weekly open near 1.4110 and has printed lower highs through Asia and London as lower oil and Iran-peace headlines trim the USD, breaking the rally support line and slipping below EMA(20) at 1.4093 with RSI(14) back to 47; price sits just under the 23.6% rally fib at 1.4088, with the monday low at 1.4077 and EMA(50) near 1.4067 next beneath.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4067, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4093, 1.4110, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema50 at 1.4067 and the 38.2% rally fib at 1.4058 puts the pre-nfp low at 1.4052 in play and deepens the pullback
Recovery above the ema20 and the Monday lower highs line near 1.4100 reopens the weekly open at 1.4110, then the friday high at 1.4137
Fed speakers today and the Trump–Qatar 17:00 GMT Iran meeting (oil channel) could shift CAD intraday
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:04 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from week high · RSI 45 · price 1.40786
Thu–Fri impulse to 1.4137, Monday lower highs retracing.
The Thursday–Friday impulse from 1.3942 peaked at the 1.4137 week high after Friday's US NFP beat and Canada jobs miss. Monday has retraced in a flag-like run of lower highs from the 1.4128 Monday high, extended at the London open as USD gives back part of its payrolls rally. Price now trades below EMA(20) near 1.4095 but holds above EMA(50) around 1.4062, with RSI(14) easing to ~45 and the 38.2% fib at 1.4063 the next reference below.
Support: 1.4063, 1.4052, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4052 pre-NFP low breaks the Thursday–Friday higher-low sequence and opens the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4095 and the Monday lower-highs line would put the 1.4128 Monday high and 1.4137 week high back in focus
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40 GMT, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and Tuesday's US CPI at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC is a second event risk for CAD
09:03 UTC
Uptrend since Thursday, pulling back Monday · RSI 45 · price 1.40845
Thursday–Friday higher lows; Monday lower highs below the weekly open.
USDCAD reversed Wednesday's slide to 1.3929 with a two-day rally. Friday's NY session added the largest leg, driven by the 165K US payrolls beat and Canada's -4.7K jobs miss, and the rally printed a 1.4137 week high. Monday gapped below Friday's close and has drifted through Asia into London in a run of lower highs, slipping under the rally trendline, EMA(20) near 1.4097 and the 1.4110 weekly open, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s. The pullback sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the rally. The 38.2% level overlaps EMA(50) at 1.4064, with the Monday low at 1.4082 the nearest support.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4064, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4097, 1.4110, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4082 Monday low exposes the 1.4064 EMA50/38.2% confluence and the 1.4052 pre-NFP low
Reclaim of EMA20 and the 1.4110 weekly open breaks the Monday lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4137 week high back in focus
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, plus the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar meeting via oil, could shift the pullback read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC are the next major risk for the structure
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 43 · price 1.40922
Impulse to 1.4137 high, Monday lower highs into 23.6% fib.
The week's rally ran from the 1.3929 low on Thursday and accelerated in Friday's NY session, when the US payrolls beat landed against a Canadian jobs loss and printed a week high at 1.4137. Monday opened about 20 pips below Friday's 1.4129 close, at the monday open of 1.4110. Price has since slipped through the Asian session into London open to a monday low near 1.4090, below the ema20 at 1.4099 and onto the 23.6% retracement of the week's rally. EMA(50) still sits underneath and RSI(14) has cooled to the low 40s, so the structure reads as a pullback within the uptrend rather than a reversal so far.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4052, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4099, 1.4110, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 1.4090 opens the pre-nfp low at 1.4052, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the week's rally
Loss of 1.4052 would bring the 1.4000 round number and Thursday's breakout base back into play
Reclaiming the ema20 and the monday open at 1.4110 breaks the monday lower highs and leaves the gap to the 1.4129 Friday close and the 1.4137 week high exposed
Fed speakers today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after post-NFP high · RSI 38 · price 1.40991
The dominant move came Thursday–Friday. A London-led impulse ran from the 1.3942 swing low to the 1.4137 prior high, and Friday's NY-session NFP beat against Canada's jobs miss added roughly 45 pips in a single bar. Monday opened with a ~20-pip gap below the 1.4129 prior close; the Asian session stalled just short of filling it, and lower highs have since taken price back under the EMA(20) at 1.4111 as the dollar gives back part of its post-NFP gain. RSI(14) is easing toward 38, and price sits on the 1.4098 Asian low just above the nfp low and the 23.6% impulse fib near 1.4090.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4090, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4090 nfp low and 23.6% impulse fib exposes the 38.2% at 1.4063 and the 1.4052 pre-nfp low
Close back above the ema20 at 1.4111 and the Monday lower highs line reopens the 1.4129 prior close gap fill
Clearance of the 1.4137 prior high would extend the Thursday–Friday impulse
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 and Barkin 17:15 GMT could shift December hike pricing during NY hours
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC are the larger risks to this read
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.41033
Higher lows since Wednesday; rising trendline from Thursday broken in Asia.
USD/CAD has climbed about 195 pips off Thursday's 1.3942 London-session low. The 13:30 GMT split jobs data on Friday (US NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) printed a 45-pip bar and carried price to a 1.4137 week high into NY. Monday opened with a ~20-pip gap below Friday's 1.4129 close, and Asia has drifted under the weekly open, breaking the rising trendline from Thursday and sitting on EMA(20) near 1.4100 with RSI(14) easing to the high 50s; the nfp pullback low at 1.4090 lines up with the 23.6% fib just beneath.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4090, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4090 nfp pullback low and 23.6% fib breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4052 pre-nfp low
Recovery back above the 1.4110 weekly open and the 1.4129 gap fill puts the 1.4137 week high back in focus
Trump–Qatar Iran meeting Mon 17:00 GMT could move oil and the USD, shifting this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 GMT are the main event risks for the pair
USDCAD put in a higher low at 1.3942 on Thursday after Wednesday's 1.3929 week low, then climbed steadily through London and NY. Friday's split jobs data, a 165K NFP beat against a -4.7K Canadian print, drove a 45-pip NY-session bar through 1.4100 to a week high of 1.4137. Monday opened about 20 pips below the 1.4129 Friday close, and Asia has drifted to 1.4103, just above the EMA(20) near 1.4100, with RSI(14) back near 52 as the Wednesday–Friday rally pauses.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4090, 1.4058
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4090 post-NFP low puts the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday–Friday rally at 1.4058 in play
A break of the rally trendline from Wednesday's low would end the higher-low sequence
Filling the gap to the 1.4129 Friday close and an H1 close above the 1.4137 week high would extend the uptrend
Fedspeak today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC), US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 low; Monday consolidating below the gap.
Midweek CAD strength put in the low at 1.3929 on Wednesday. From there a steady London-to-NY climb from Thursday turned into a ~45-pip NY-session jump on Friday. The divergence between the 165K US payrolls beat and Canada's -4.7K jobs miss drove that move, which printed the week high at 1.4137. Monday's Asia session opened about 20 pips below the Friday close and is holding a narrow Asian range above the Monday low at 1.4105, with EMA(20) rising toward 1.4100 and price sitting on the rising trendline from Thursday's low. RSI(14) has cooled to ~60 from Friday's overbought readings with no lower low on the chart yet.
Support: 1.41051, 1.4090, 1.40519
Resistance: 1.41293, 1.41371
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the post-NFP low at 1.4090 (near the 23.6% fib of the Wed low–week high move) would break the rising trendline and expose the pre-NFP low at 1.4052
Reclaiming the Friday close at 1.4129 fills the gap; a close above the week high at 1.4137 extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the Monday low at 1.4105 and EMA(20) near 1.4100 would end the Asian range consolidation
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC; a hawkish tone on further hikes could pull price back toward the 1.4050 area
After Wednesday's 1.3929 week low, Thursday's 1.3942 higher low launched a steady London-to-NY climb. Friday's split jobs data, a US payrolls beat against a Canadian jobs miss, drove a 44-pip NFP-hour spike and a week high at 1.4137 late in the NY session. Monday opened with a gap below the 1.4129 Friday close, and the Asia session has eased to a 1.4105 Monday low, just above EMA(20) near 1.4100 and the 1.4090 nfp low.
Support: 1.4105, 1.4090, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
Unfilled gap to the 1.4129 Friday close; an H1 close above the 1.4137 week high resumes the higher-high sequence
H1 close below the 1.4090 nfp low exposes the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday-Friday rally near 1.4063 and the 1.4052 pre-nfp low
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin later Monday, then the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC, could shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to the post-NFP USD bid
Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday gap-down consolidating above EMA(20).
USD/CAD built higher lows from Wednesday's 1.3929 low to Thursday's 1.3942 London low. The NY session drove the Wednesday-to-Friday impulse: first the Thursday afternoon climb through 1.4000, then Friday's twin jobs shock (US NFP 165K vs 65K, Canada -4.7K vs +13.6K) that cleared the 1.4073 breakout zone and ran to the 1.4137 week high. Monday's Asia session gapped about 20 pips below Friday's 1.4129 prior close and is holding near the 1.4109 weekly open, still above the ema20 near 1.4098 with RSI(14) easing into the mid-60s.
Support: 1.4109, 1.4098, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.4098 ema20 and the 1.4109 weekly open would mark the first meaningful pullback since Thursday
Gap fill above the 1.4129 prior close and a break of the 1.4137 week high would put Friday's impulse back in play
A deeper retracement brings the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-to-Friday impulse near 1.4058 into view, alongside the 1.4052 pre-nfp low and the higher-low trendline
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 low; Monday range 1.4109–1.4128 after gap.
USD/CAD reversed the early-week slide from Wednesday's 1.3929 London-session low. It built higher lows through Thursday and Friday's Asia session before the jobs divergence (US NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) carried the week impulse through 1.4100 to a 1.4137 week high in NY hours. Monday's Asia session opened with a gap roughly 20 pips below Friday's close and is consolidating above the weekly open at 1.4110, with EMA(20) just beneath and RSI(14) easing to ~71 from overbought. The asia high at 1.4128 sits just under Friday's close, and the nfp pullback low at 1.4090 and the fib 38.2 at 1.4058 mark the next references below.
Support: 1.41097, 1.4090, 1.40577
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the weekly open at 1.4110 and EMA(20) puts the nfp pullback low at 1.4090 in play
Failure to hold 1.4090 exposes the fib 38.2 of the week impulse at 1.4058, near Friday's pre-NFP base
A close above the asia high at 1.4128 completes the gap fill and brings the week high at 1.4137 back into focus
Fed speakers Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC, US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break from 1.3930–1.4024, higher lows since Thursday, Sunday gap lower.
USDCAD held a 1.3930–1.4024 range from Tuesday to Thursday, then broke above the range top in Thursday's NY session and kept building higher lows through London Friday. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) and Canada's -4.7K jobs print drove a 45-pip spike from the 1.4052 nfp base to a 1.4137 week high, a level that sits near the 38.2% retracement of the week's 1.3929–1.4137 impulse. Sunday's Asia session opened about 20 pips below Friday's close at 1.4129, leaving an unfilled gap, while price holds just above ema20 near 1.4100 with RSI(14) at 68 easing from the post-data push.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4052, 1.4024
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 closes below ema20 at 1.4100 would point to a deeper pullback toward the 1.4052 nfp base
Failure to hold the 1.4052 nfp base and the higher-low line would put the 1.4024 range top back in play
A fill of the gap to the 1.4129 fri close, followed by a close above the 1.4137 week high, would extend the impulse
Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC Monday (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could reprice December hike odds
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read