Higher low at 1.4077 after break of prior 1.4068 high.
USDCAD has rallied about 208 pips off the 1.3929 seven-week low. The move cleared the prior 1.4068 swing high after Friday's US payrolls beat and Canada's jobs miss, with EMA20 now above EMA50. The pullback stopped at a 1.4077 swing low, retesting the old high and holding above the fib 38.2 at 1.4058. Price has since stalled under twin highs at 1.4137, while ATR(14) near 30 pips shows the range has expanded rather than compressed.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4058, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4137 twin highs opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4077 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4058, then the fib 61.8 near 1.4009
A break of the higher-low trendline would undercut the uptrend read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could also shift this read
Further crude weakness has kept CAD under pressure
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the swing high · RSI 73 · price 1.41301
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low; breakout above prior range top retested.
Price has made higher highs and higher lows along a higher-low line since the 1.3929 swing low. Friday's US/Canada jobs divergence (NFP 165K beat vs a Canadian -4.7K miss) drove the rally through the 1.4068 prior high. Monday's pullback held the 1.4077 pullback low, above the fib 38.2 at 1.4058, as a retest of that breakout, and price is again pressing the 1.4137 swing high. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50, and ATR(14) near 30 pips is up from the earlier range phase, which fits trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4058, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4137 swing high extends the higher-high sequence, with the 1.4200 round number the next reference
Close below the 1.4077 pullback low and the fib 38.2 at 1.4058 would undercut the breakout retest and break the higher-low line
Loss of the 1.4010 pre-nfp area (near the 61.8% fib) would return price to the late-October range
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RSI(14) in the low 70s leaves the move stretched into event risk
14:03 UTC
Uptrend after range breakout, pulling back · RSI 66 · price 1.41046
After two weeks of lower highs and a 1.3940-1.4010 base, Friday's NFP beat and Canada's jobs miss drove a ~208-pip leg from 1.3929 to the 1.4137 swing high. That cleared both the lower-high line and the 1.4068 prior high, with EMA20 now above EMA50. Monday's pullback stalled at a 1.4077 pullback low, just above the prior high and short of the 38.2% retracement, before price recovered toward 1.4105. A deeper slide would bring the fib 50% at 1.4033 into view. ATR(14) has expanded to about 29 pips from the compressed late-October regime.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4068, 1.4033
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4068 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break above the 1.4128 monday high and the 1.4137 swing high extends the leg toward the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the fib 50% at 1.4033 would undo most of the post-NFP impulse
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Fresh uptrend, pulling back after impulse · RSI 64 · price 1.40911
Range break higher, first pullback in progress.
Two weeks of lower highs inside a 1.3930-1.4080 band ended Friday. The NFP beat against Canada's jobs miss drove a near 210-pip impulse from the 1.3929 low, with higher lows off that base, to a 1.4137 swing high. That cleared the range top at 1.4068, and EMA20 is now above EMA50. Monday opened with a gap lower and three soft bars have taken price to the fib 23.6 retracement near 1.4088, with ATR(14) expanded to ~26 pips versus the prior compression.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4068, 1.4033
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4068 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the fib 50 at 1.4033 undercuts the higher lows from 1.3929
H4 close above the monday high at 1.4128 and the 1.4137 swing high resumes higher highs toward the 1.4200 psych level
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, impulse stalling below the high · RSI 75 · price 1.41132
Range break; new higher high at 1.4137 after a lower-high sequence gave way.
Two weeks of lower highs off the 1.4068 prior high ended with a roughly 200-pip impulse from the 1.3929 swing low to the 1.4137 swing high. The move followed the US payrolls beat landing alongside Canada's jobs miss, which pushed USD/CAD through the descending trendline and the top of the range. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50 and ATR(14) has expanded to about 27 pips. Price is now consolidating just under the high with RSI overbought near 75.
Support: 1.40682, 1.40332, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.41371, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4137 swing high extends the breakout and opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
A slide back below the 1.4068 prior high, near the 38.2% fib at 1.4058, would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 50% fib at 1.4033
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and the BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A return to the 1.3929 swing low would negate the impulse entirely
Range break above 1.3930–1.4080, higher highs off 1.3929.
After three weeks capped by the 1.4068–1.4082 range top, USD/CAD broke higher on Friday. It ran from the 1.3929 swing low to a 1.4137 swing high as the 165K US NFP beat landed alongside a Canadian jobs miss. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50, RSI is in overbought territory and ATR has expanded off the prior compression. The old range top sits close to the 38.2% fib of the leg, so it is the first area to monitor on any pullback, with the 1.4000 round number below.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4000, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4082 range top would turn the range break into a false break
Close above the 1.4137 swing high extends the leg toward the 1.4200 round number
US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks unwinding Friday's move
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC is a second event risk for CAD
Loss of the 1.4000 round number would put the 1.3929 swing low back in focus