USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 10 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into overbought · RSI 74 · price 1.41883
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low.
USDCAD has carved higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low. The rally gathered pace on Friday's US/Canada jobs divergence and extended after Tuesday's hot US CPI to a 1.4210 swing high. The EMA(20) crossed above the EMA(50) early in the leg and both now slope higher beneath price, with the 38.2% retracement near 1.4103 sitting close to the ema20. RSI at 74.4 is overbought and ATR(14) at 29 pips is drifting higher, which points to trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 1.41068, 1.4077, 1.40602
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4210 swing high opens the path toward the 1.4299 window high
Failure to hold the 1.4077 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the ema50 near 1.4060
A pullback holding the ema20 / 38.2% zone around 1.4103-1.4107 keeps the higher-low structure intact
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; any endorsement of a 50bp December hike or a dovish lean could shift this read
Canada October CPI on Mon Nov 16 is the next major CAD input
Higher high and higher low since breakout above 1.4137.
The late-October slide from the 1.4299 oct high bottomed at 1.3929. Friday's US-Canada jobs divergence then drove a breakout above the 1.4137 prior high, and after a higher low at 1.4077 the hot US CPI pushed price to a fresh 1.4210 swing high. EMA20 has crossed above a rising EMA50 and ATR(14) has expanded to 30.3 pips, but RSI at 74.3 is overbought and sits below the 77.5 reading at the 1.4137 peak, a bearish divergence; the rally fib 38.2% near 1.4103 lines up with the ema20.
Support: 1.4137, 1.4098, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4210, 1.4299
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 1.4137 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4077 higher low and the higher-low line would break the swing sequence, exposing the ema20 and the rally fib 50% near 1.4070
A close above the 1.4210 swing high opens room toward the 1.4299 oct high
BoC Summary of Deliberations in under 30 minutes, and Bowman later today, could materially shift this read; Canada CPI on Mon 16 Nov is the next CAD driver
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending after CPI · RSI 73 · price 1.41668
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3929 swing low; breakout above 1.4137 prior high.
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 swing low. The hotter-than-forecast US October CPI (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%) lifted the pair through the 1.4137 prior high to a 1.4176 CPI spike, just above the 61.8% retrace of the 1.4299–1.3929 decline. EMA20 crossed above EMA50 earlier in the rally and both slope higher beneath price, while RSI at 72.5 is overbought and ATR has ticked up to 28.4 pips. The higher-lows trendline, the 1.4089 ema20 and the 1.4077 swing low frame the structure below, with the prior range near 1.4220 sitting under the 1.4299 window high.
Support: 1.4137, 1.40889, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4220, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4137 prior high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4077 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the higher-lows trendline
H4 close above the 1.4220 prior range opens the path to the 1.4299 window high
Stalling at the 1.4176 CPI spike with RSI overbought would leave the 1.4089 ema20 as the first test below
BoC Summary of Deliberations (18:30 UTC) and Fed's Bowman/Paulson tonight could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows off a double bottom near 1.3930.
USDCAD has reversed the late-October slide. A double bottom near 1.3930 gave way to a breakout after Friday's US payrolls beat and Canadian jobs miss, and the pair has printed higher highs and higher lows since, with EMA(20) crossing above EMA(50). Price is now pressing the 1.4135-1.4140 prior lows that capped the earlier breakdown. RSI has eased to 67.8 from overbought readings and ATR(14) is steady near 26 pips. The swing low at 1.4077, which sits alongside the ema20 at 1.4081, is the first structural floor, ahead of the ema50 at 1.4045.
Support: 1.40774, 1.40451, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4220, 1.42998
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4140 prior lows opens the 1.4220 prior highs, with the 1.4300 window high beyond
A break below the 1.4077 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the ema50 at 1.4045
Loss of the 1.4000 round number would undermine the double bottom breakout
US October CPI in ~2.5h and the BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 1.3930 base; tight hold under week high.
After a two-week base at 1.3930-1.4010, USDCAD broke out on Friday's jobs split: US NFP at 165K against a 4.7K Canadian job loss. Oil at its lowest since August has kept CAD heavy since. The EMA20 has crossed above the EMA50, and price is holding a higher-low sequence, with Monday's swing low at 1.4077 sitting just above the EMA20 (1.4075). RSI has eased from overbought to 64.8, and ATR(14) is compressing toward 25 pips as price coils under the 1.4137 week high.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4041, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.4137 week high opens the 1.4200 round number, with the mid-Oct high at 1.4300 beyond that
Losing the 1.4077 swing low and the EMA20 breaks the higher-low trendline; the ema50 at 1.4041 and the 38.2% fib near 1.4057 come next
A return below the 1.4010 base top would negate the breakout read
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
The BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and further moves in crude could also shift it
Range break above 1.4068; higher low at 1.4077 under a double cap at 1.4137.
After two weeks capped in a 1.3930–1.4068 range, USD/CAD broke out on Friday. The jump came as the 165K US NFP beat landed against a Canadian jobs miss, with oil weakness adding to CAD pressure. The pullback held a higher swing low at 1.4077, just above the old range top at 1.4068, and buyers returned, but supply has now capped price twice at the 1.4137 double cap. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 and ATR(14) near 28 pips reflects the expanded post-breakout regime.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4068, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4137 double cap extends the breakout and opens the 1.4200 psych level
Loss of the 1.4077 swing low puts the 1.4068 range top retest in play; a close back inside the range turns the move into a false break
Break below the 38.2% fib near 1.4058 exposes the 1.4000 round number and the 50% retracement
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks the USD hike premium
BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue 18:30 UTC, plus oil and US-Iran headlines as the main CAD driver