USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 81 · price 1.42507
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low; breakout above 1.4137.
The pair has rallied about 320 pips off the 1.3929 swing low in early November. That move first ran on Friday's US/Canada jobs divergence, then extended after the hot US CPI cleared the 1.4137 breakout level and the mid-October high near 1.4220. Price sits at a fresh window swing high at 1.4252, above a rising ema20 (1.4162) and ema50 (1.4096), with the rising lows trendline from 1.3929 intact. RSI at 81.3 is overbought and ATR has eased from 30 to 25 pips, so the leg is stretched while volatility cools.
Support: 1.4220, 1.41621, 1.4137
Resistance: 1.42521, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the oct high at 1.4220 would mark the first loss of breakout momentum
Pullback to ema20 at 1.4162 or the 1.4137 breakout level would test the retest-and-hold read; the 38.2% rally fib sits near 1.4129
Failure to hold the rising lows trendline would break the higher-low sequence
Clearance of the 1.4252 swing high opens the 1.4300 round number
Thu Fed speakers and Fri US PPI could materially shift this read; Canada CPI follows Mon
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought and extending · RSI 81 · price 1.42474
Higher highs and higher lows from the 1.3929 low; breakout above the 1.4222 prior high.
Price has made higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low. The US-Canada jobs divergence started the leg, and Tuesday's hot US CPI carried it through the 1.4222 prior high to a window high near 1.4250, with the 1.4077 swing low on the rising trendline the latest higher low. EMA20 crossed above EMA50 early in the advance and both slope higher beneath price. RSI at 81 is overbought, while ATR(14) is steady near 26 pips, so the trend is extending without volatility expansion.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4153, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 1.4222 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A pullback toward the ema20 at 1.4153 and the 38.2% of the impulse fib near 1.4127 would test the rising trendline zone
Failure to hold the 1.4077 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4250 window high opens the 1.4300 round number
Thu Fed speakers and jobless claims, then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read; Canada CPI on Mon 16 Nov is the CAD-side risk
14:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 80 · price 1.42426
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low, out of the October descending channel.
USDCAD has broken out of the October descending channel and is printing higher highs and higher lows from the 1.3929 low. The drivers were last Friday's US/Canada jobs divergence and Tuesday's hot US CPI. The Monday dip held at the 1.4077 swing low, and price is now pressing the 1.4246 window high, with ema20 rising above ema50. RSI at 80.3 is overbought while ATR(14) holds steady near 27 pips, so the trend is extending rather than accelerating. The cpi shelf at 1.4185 and ema20 at 1.4143 mark the first pullback zones, with the rally fib 38.2% near 1.4125 and the rising trendline from 1.3929 below.
Support: 1.4185, 1.41428, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4246 window high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
A break back below the 1.4185 cpi shelf would show the overbought stretch unwinding toward ema20 at 1.4143
Loss of the 1.4077 swing low and the rising trendline would end the higher-low sequence
US core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC and Thursday Fedspeak could materially shift this read; Canada CPI on Mon 16 Nov is the CAD-side risk
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 78 · price 1.42181
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 swing low.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 swing low, first on the US-Canada jobs divergence and again on Tuesday's hot US CPI, which pushed price through the 1.4210 cpi high. The EMA20 crossed above the EMA50 early in the leg and both are rising, with price well above the ema20 at 1.4133. RSI at 78.2 is overbought while ATR holds steady near 27 pips, so the move is stretched rather than accelerating, and the next overhead markers are the 1.4239 prior high and the 1.4263 decline top where the window's sell-off began.
Support: 1.4210, 1.41326, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4239, 1.4263
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4210 cpi high would turn the latest push into a false break
Loss of the 1.4077 higher low, where the rising trendline, the EMA50 and the 50% fib of the 1.3929-1.4221 rally converge, breaks the higher-low sequence
Close above the 1.4263 decline top would retrace the window's entire sell-off
Thu Fedspeak and Fri core PPI could shift USD pricing between a 25bp and 50bp December hike
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to this read
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into overbought · RSI 77 · price 1.42066
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 base low.
USDCAD has climbed roughly 280 pips off the 1.3929 base low after a two-week basing range, first on the US payrolls beat and Canadian jobs miss, then on the hot US CPI that took price through the 1.4137 prior high to a 1.4210 CPI high. The swing is a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows, with the 1.4077 higher low holding. EMA(20) is above EMA(50) after crossing earlier in the rally and price sits above both, while RSI at 76.6 is overbought and ATR(14) near 27 pips is steady rather than expanding.
Support: 1.41371, 1.41233, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4210 CPI high opens the path toward the 1.4299 window high
A return below the 1.4137 prior high would mark the CPI breakout as faltering, with ema20 at 1.4123 just beneath
Failure to hold the 1.4077 higher low breaks the rally trendline and the higher-low sequence
Thu US jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri US PPI, could materially shift this read
Canada October CPI on Mon 16 Nov is the key CAD-side risk to the Fed-BoC divergence move
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought after CPI leg · RSI 75 · price 1.41879
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 swing low.
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 swing low. The NFP-versus-Canada jobs divergence and Tuesday's hot US CPI drove a roughly 280-pip leg that cleared the 1.4137 prior high and printed a 1.4210 CPI high. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 and price holds above both, with ema20 rising at 1.4115. RSI at 74.6 is overbought and ATR is easing back from 30 pips after the CPI bar, with the rising higher-lows trendline near 1.4130 sitting just under the prior high.
Support: 1.4137, 1.41146, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4137 prior high and the higher-lows trendline would put the breakout into question and expose ema20 at 1.4115
Loss of the 1.4077 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the 50% fib near 1.4070 and EMA50 at 1.4065 into play
A close above the 1.4210 CPI high opens the path toward the 1.4300 window high from late October
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu, US PPI Fri and Canada CPI Mon Nov 16 could materially shift this read