Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3929, stalling below 1.4300.
The rally from the 1.3929 low has printed higher highs and higher lows for over a week. It was triggered by last Friday's US NFP beat against a Canada jobs miss and extended by Tuesday's hot US core CPI, with price holding above both the ema20 (1.4203) and the ema50 (1.4129). RSI at 74.5 is overbought, and the new 1.4271 swing high came with a lower RSI reading than the 82 peak, a bearish divergence. ATR has compressed from 30 to 24 pips as price stalls beneath the 1.4300 round number.
Support: 1.42241, 1.42027, 1.41291
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.4224 swing low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the ema20 near 1.4203
A close above the 1.4271 swing high and the 1.4300 round number extends the uptrend structure
Sustained trade below the ema50 at 1.4129 puts price back inside the 38.2% retracement zone of the rally fib
Fed's Williams (23:30 UTC) and US PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Canada CPI on Mon 13:30 UTC is the CAD-side risk to the stretched move
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched and overbought · RSI 76 · price 1.42575
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 swing low.
USDCAD has carved higher highs and higher lows off the 1.3929 swing low. Strong US payrolls, Tuesday's CPI beat and soft Canadian jobs carried price through 1.4210 to a new swing high at 1.4271. Price sits above a rising ema20 (1.4197) that is well clear of the ema50 (1.4124). RSI is overbought at 75.5 but below its 82 peak despite the marginal new high, a tentative bearish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 30 to under 25 pips as the advance slows beneath the 1.4300 round number.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4197, 1.4124
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4224 swing low would break the higher-low sequence and expose the ema20 at 1.4197
A close above the 1.4271 swing high and the 1.4300 round number would extend the uptrend; rejection there would reinforce the bearish divergence
Loss of the rising trendline of higher lows and the ema50 at 1.4124 would put the rally fib 38.2% near 1.4141 in play
Fed's Daly and Schmid speak within the hour, Williams later today, and US PPI is due Fri 13:30 UTC; any of these could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the CAD-side risk to the trend
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low, first pullback from the 1.4265 swing high.
USDCAD has carved higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 low, a roughly 335-pip leg. The beat on US payrolls against Canada's jobs miss started it, and the hot US CPI print extended it to the 1.4265 swing high. RSI has rolled back to 72.1 from a peak of 82 and ATR(14) has compressed to 23.6 from 30.3. That points to a cooling advance, with the first dip holding near the 1.4224 pullback low. Price stays above both EMAs, and the ema20 at 1.4191 sits well clear of the EMA(50) at 1.4119.
Support: 1.42241, 1.41907, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4224 pullback low exposes the ema20 near 1.4191 and the 38.2% rally fib at 1.4137
Break below the 1.4105 higher low and the higher-low trendline would end the higher-low sequence
Close above the 1.4265 swing high opens the 1.4300 round number flagged as resistance
Fedspeak today (Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) and Friday's US PPI could materially shift this read
Canada CPI on Monday is the main CAD-side risk to the stretched upside momentum
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought and stalling · RSI 80 · price 1.42524
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3929 swing low; tight consolidation under 1.4265.
The early-window decline ended at the 1.3929 swing low, and USD/CAD has since printed higher highs and higher lows. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the breakout through the 1.4137 prior high, on top of last week's Canadian jobs miss. Price now sits above a rising EMA20 (1.4186) and EMA50 (1.4114), but RSI at 80.4 is overbought and ATR(14) has compressed from 30.3 to 23.1 pips. That points to a stall in a tight consolidation just under the 1.4265 swing high.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4186, 1.4137
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4240 consolidation low exposes the ema20 at 1.4186
Close above the 1.4265 swing high opens the 1.4287 barrier and the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the higher-low trendline and the 1.4137 prior high (38.2% fib) would break the higher-low sequence
US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak today, then US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Mon 16 Nov is the next CAD-side test of the uptrend
USDCAD has carved higher lows off the 1.3929 swing low and rallied about 335 pips to a 1.4265 window high, clearing the 1.4140 former channel top. The move was driven by the US payrolls beat, a weak Canadian jobs report, softer crude and Tuesday's hot US CPI. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.4179, with ema20 well clear of the ema50 at 1.4108. RSI at 82 is deep in overbought territory, while ATR(14) has eased from 30 to 24 pips, so the latest grind is extending on shrinking ranges rather than expanding ones.
Support: 1.4210, 1.41788, 1.4108
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4210 cpi high would mark the first failed hold of the breakout
Loss of the ema20 and the higher-low trendline near 1.4170 would turn the read to a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% fib at 1.4137 and the former channel top
Break below the ema50 and the 1.4105 swing low would end the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4265 window high opens the 1.4300 round number
US Core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers today could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Mon 16 Nov 13:30 UTC is the key CAD-side test; a hot print risks a sharp squeeze lower from overbought
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into overbought · RSI 81 · price 1.42495
Higher highs and higher lows from the 1.3929 swing low.
After repeated tests of the 1.3930-1.3950 floor, the pair turned into a steady higher-high, higher-low sequence. The strong US payrolls and Canada jobs miss drove the advance, and the hot US CPI then cleared the 1.4210 prior high from the window's opening days, with price now pressing the 1.4254 window high. RSI at 81.4 is overbought and ATR has eased from 30.3 to 24.3 pips, so the push is extending on slowing ranges, with price holding above a rising ema20 (1.4171) and ema50 (1.4102).
Support: 1.4210, 1.41705, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4254, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4210 prior high would mark the CPI breakout as failing
A pullback holding the ema20 near 1.4171 keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Break of the 1.4077 swing low would end the rising lows structure from 1.3929
Sustained trade above the 1.4254 window high puts the 1.4300 round number in focus
US Core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC and Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read