Higher lows intact; tight consolidation under week high.
From a Monday London low at 1.4077, the dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US core CPI beat. It drove the pair through 1.4200, and a steady Wednesday grind followed into 1.4250. Thursday's NY session dipped below the 1.4241 london low to a 1.4224 swing low, then reclaimed it to print a week high at 1.4271 on lower RSI (61 vs 77 at Thursday's Asia high), a bearish divergence. Price now sits fractionally below the ema20 at 1.4252, with ATR easing back to 10 pips and the ema50 at 1.4230 still rising beneath the higher-lows trendline.
Support: 1.42522, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high clears the divergence and opens the 1.4300 round number
Break below the 1.4224 swing low snaps the higher-lows trendline and the weekly uptrend structure
Holding under the ema20 with RSI slipping below 50 would extend the consolidation toward the 1.4241 london low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling near week high · RSI 56 · price 1.42556
Higher lows from Monday, consolidating above ema20.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 190 pips from Monday's London low at 1.4077. Tuesday's hot US core CPI drove the NY-session break, and the week's rally since then has printed a steady series of higher lows. Thursday's dip at the NY open to the 1.4224 swing low was reversed to a week high at 1.4271, but RSI(14) read only about 61 there versus 80 on the Asia-session push to 1.4264, a bearish divergence as price consolidates just above the ema20 at 1.4252 with the 1.4300 psych level overhead.
Support: 1.42523, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline near 1.4242 and the 1.4224 swing low (23.6% of the week's rally) breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.4224 swing low exposes the 1.4200 round number, which is also flagged as support in the macro read
Close above the 1.4271 week high puts the 1.4300 psych level in play and weakens the divergence read
Higher lows since Tuesday; consolidating under week high.
USD/CAD has climbed from Monday's 1.4077 low, about 64 pips under the 1.4119 week open. Tuesday's hot US core CPI drove the main NY-session leg through 1.4200, and a steady run of higher lows has followed since. Thursday's dip to the 1.4224 swing low reversed to a new week high at 1.4271, but RSI(14) printed 61 there versus 80 at the earlier Asia high, a bearish divergence, and price now sits just above ema20 at 1.4252 with Thursday's London low at 1.4241 the nearer shelf.
Support: 1.42519, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4224 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising support line
Loss of ema20 and the 1.4241 london low would extend the cooling from overbought
Close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 59 · price 1.42597
Higher highs and higher lows; pullbacks holding ema20.
The week impulse from Monday's 1.4077 low came mostly on Tuesday's hot US CPI during NY hours, followed by a steady grind higher through Wednesday. Thursday's NY-open dip to the 1.4224 claims low reversed within the hour into a fresh week high at 1.4271. RSI(14) read 61 there versus 80 at the earlier Asia high, a bearish divergence, while price holds above the EMA(20) at 1.4252, where the latest pullbacks have stalled.
Support: 1.42515, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 at 1.4252 and the London low at 1.4241 would end the shallow-pullback pattern
Failure to hold the 1.4224 claims low breaks the higher-lows trendline and marks a lower low
Close above the 1.4271 week high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's 13:30 UTC PPI could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 57 · price 1.4259
Higher lows since Tuesday, new week high printed on fading RSI.
The week opened near 1.4119 and dipped to 1.4077 in Monday's London session. Tuesday's hot US core CPI then drove the dominant NY-session impulse through 1.4200, and price has stepped higher on a higher-low trendline since. Thursday's NY session swept down to a 1.4224 swing low, near EMA(50) at 1.4225 and the 23.6% retracement of the week impulse fib, then spiked to a 1.4271 week high. Price holds above EMA(20) at 1.4251, but RSI(14) at 57 against 80 on Thursday's Asia high marks a bearish divergence, and ATR has expanded to 11.2 pips.
Support: 1.42507, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 1.4251 puts the 1.4224 swing low and the higher-low trendline in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4224 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 round number cited as resistance
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Monday's low; new week high on fading RSI.
USDCAD has climbed roughly 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 week low. The dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print, followed by a steady grind higher through Wednesday. Thursday's first-hour-of-NY dip found the Thu low at 1.4224, at the rising trendline and current EMA(50), before a push to a 1.4271 week high. RSI(14) printed 61.3 there against 80.2 in Thursday's Asia session, a bearish RSI divergence, while price holds above the EMA20 at 1.4250 with ATR expanding to 11.4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly and Schmid speak within the next hour; hawkish remarks on 50bp could extend the move toward the week high
H1 close below the Thu low at 1.4224 breaks the rising trendline and EMA(50), confirming a lower low
Loss of 1.4224 exposes the 1.4200 round number and the 38.2% fib of the Mon-Thu rally near 1.4197
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 psych level
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for this read
USDCAD has climbed roughly 190 pips off Monday's 1.4077 low, with Tuesday's hot US CPI print driving the dominant NY-session impulse and Wednesday adding a steady grind through 1.4200. Today's NY session swept down to the thu low at 1.4224 after jobless claims, then spiked to a week high at 1.4271, just above the 1.4265 prior high from Asia. That spike printed RSI(14) near 64 against readings around 80 at the lower Asia-session high, a bearish divergence, while ATR(14) expanded to 11.7 pips. Price is back near the ema20 at 1.4249 and well above the EMA(50) at 1.4223, and the rising support line from Wednesday's lows is still intact.
Support: 1.42492, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 1.4249 would put the thu low at 1.4224 and the rising support line in focus
Failure to hold 1.4224 opens the 1.4200 psych level and the 38.2% retracement near 1.4197
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high would negate the bearish divergence and leave the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
Fed's Daly and Schmid within the next 90 minutes, then US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday, V-shaped recovery to week high.
From Sunday's 1.4119 open and Monday's London low at 1.4077, Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the dominant leg in the NY session, followed by a steady Wednesday grind on a weak-CAD, hawkish-Fed backdrop. Today's NY dip to the 1.42241 swing low, just above EMA(50) at 1.42215, met a sharp rejection and price ran to a new week high at 1.42714, now holding above EMA(20) at 1.42488 with ATR expanding to 11.8 pips. RSI(14) at 61.3 against Wednesday's 82 readings at lower prices marks a bearish divergence into the highs.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.42241 swing low and EMA(50) breaks the higher-lows line and exposes 1.4200 psych
H1 close above the 1.42714 week high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.42488 would confirm the RSI divergence as fading momentum
Goolsbee in ~30 min, then Daly, Schmid and Williams tonight, could shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact risk for USD
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print took the pair from 1.4134 through 1.4200. It has since stepped up a higher-low line from Monday's London low near 1.4077, keeping both EMA(20) and EMA(50) rising beneath price. Thursday's dip to the 1.4224 swing low around US jobless claims was absorbed above the ema50 and reversed back to the week high at 1.4266. RSI(14) at 64 against readings above 80 at Thursday's Asia-session high marks a bearish divergence into the retest, while ATR has expanded from 8.4 to 11.7 pips.
Support: 1.42475, 1.42241, 1.42199
Resistance: 1.42661, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4224 swing low and ema50 at 1.4220 breaks the higher-low line and the uptrend read
Sustained closes above the 1.4266 week high bring the 1.4300 round number into view, testing whether the RSI divergence holds
Price holding the ema20 at 1.4248 on pullbacks keeps the post-CPI rally structure intact
Fedspeak today (Goolsbee 16:30, Daly 18:10, Williams 23:30 UTC) and Friday's 13:30 UTC PPI could shift this read
Monday's Canada CPI is the next high-impact CAD catalyst
Higher-lows line broken; price between EMA20 and EMA50.
USDCAD broke out of the 1.41 area on Tuesday's hot US CPI. It ground higher through Wednesday to a 1.4265 week high in Thursday's Asia session, with weak Canada jobs and softer oil adding to CAD pressure. That peak came with RSI(14) below Wednesday's 82 reading. The pair has since slipped under EMA(20) at 1.4246 and the higher-lows line, and the jobless-claims bar printed a 1.4224 session low. RSI at 46.5 has unwound the earlier overbought run, while EMA(50) at 1.4218 sits just beneath that session low.
Support: 1.42241, 1.42181, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42456, 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A sustained move below EMA(50) at 1.4218 and the 1.4200 round number would mark a deeper retracement of the CPI leg, with its 38.2% near 1.4210
A recovery back above EMA(20) at 1.4246 reopens the 1.4265 week high and the 1.4300 psych level
Fedspeak through NY hours (Barr, Goolsbee, Daly) and Friday's 13:30 UTC PPI could materially shift this read
Higher highs since Monday's low, now lower highs off the week high.
USDCAD climbed roughly 190 pips off Monday's 1.4077 low. Tuesday's US CPI beat drove the dominant leg through 1.42 in the NY session, and the pair grind-extended to a 1.4265 week high in today's Asia session as Fed hike repricing and the soft Canada jobs data kept CAD heavy. Since then the US dollar has cooled and each hourly high has come in lower into London. RSI(14) has eased from the low 80s to 56 and ATR has compressed to 8.6 pips. Price is pinned at a flattening EMA(20) around 1.4247, with the 1.4241 session low holding, and the pullback has stayed well above the fib 38.2 of the week's impulse.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42173, 1.41931
Resistance: 1.42517, 1.42649
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims in under 30 minutes, followed by a heavy Fedspeak slate, could break the current consolidation either way
An H1 close below the 1.4241 session low exposes the ema50 near 1.4217 and ends the shallow-pullback read
A close above the 1.4252 lower high, then the 1.4265 week high, resumes the higher-high sequence
A slide toward the fib 38.2 at 1.4193 would mark a deeper correction of the week's impulse
Friday's US PPI is the next high-impact risk to the week's trend
Higher highs since Monday; shallow pullback off the week high.
USD/CAD has climbed about 190 pips from Monday's London low near 1.4077. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the main leg during NY hours, and Wednesday added a steady grind higher. The week high at 1.4265 printed in today's Asia session, but RSI(14) peaked below Wednesday's 82.9 reading and has since cooled to 57.6, a mild bearish divergence, as London eased price to a 1.4241 swing low. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) at 1.4247 and holds well above EMA(50) at 1.4216, keeping the pullback shallow and inside the 23.6% fib of the week impulse.
Support: 1.42465, 1.42406, 1.42161
Resistance: 1.42558, 1.42649
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4241 swing low would expose the ema50 near 1.4216, which sits at the 23.6% fib of the week impulse
A close above the 1.4256 lower high and then the 1.4265 week high would resume the uptrend and negate the RSI divergence
Repeated H1 closes under the ema20 at 1.4247 would shift the read from pullback to consolidation
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday's US PPI and Monday's Canada CPI are the larger risks
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 52 · price 1.42427
Higher highs since Monday low; London pullback below EMA(20).
USD/CAD has climbed about 188 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The hot US CPI sparked the leg in Tuesday's NY session, Wednesday's steady grind extended it on Fed-hike pricing and the weak Canadian jobs backdrop, and the week high printed at 1.4265 in Asia today. Today's London session has pulled price back to 1.4242, below EMA(20) at 1.4246 but still well above EMA(50) at 1.4215. RSI(14) has cooled to 52 from the 80s, and its lower peak at the week high marks a bearish divergence, while ATR(14) has compressed to 8.8 pips.
Support: 1.42335, 1.42148, 1.41931
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.42649, 1.4287
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4234 wed low would be the first lower low of the week, exposing the 1.4215 ema50
A deeper slide toward the fib 38.2% at 1.4193 would mean a retrace of the week's impulse, not just a pause
Reclaiming EMA(20) and closing above the 1.4265 week high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4287 barrier
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
Friday's US PPI is the week's high-impact USD catalyst for this structure
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 66 · price 1.42524
Higher highs and lows since Monday's low; stalling below week high.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 190 pips off Monday's 1.4077 week low. The week impulse was driven by Tuesday's hot US CPI in NY hours, extended by a steady grind through Wednesday's London and NY sessions. Price has since set a 1.42649 week high in the Asia session but is moving sideways, slipping beneath the higher-low line from Tuesday evening. RSI(14) has cooled from 82.9 to 66.1 with a lower peak on the new high, a bearish divergence, while ATR(14) has compressed to 8.4 pips and price holds just above ema20.
Support: 1.42468, 1.42335, 1.42137
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below ema20 at 1.4247 and the 1.4234 pullback low would break the higher-low sequence and expose ema50 near 1.4214
H1 close above the 1.4265 week high reopens the 1.4287 barrier and 1.4300 psych
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Bearish RSI divergence remains active while the 1.4265 week high caps
Higher highs since CPI breakout, stalling under week high.
USDCAD has climbed about 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The decisive leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI beat, then a steady grind followed through Wednesday as hawkish Fed repricing and softer crude weighed on CAD. Asia printed a week high at 1.4265 overnight, but RSI(14) peaked near 80 against 83 on Wednesday, a bearish divergence, and has since cooled to 65.6 as London fades price toward the ema20 at 1.4246. ATR compression from 10.9 to 8.6 pips points to a stalling rather than a reversing trend, with price still above both EMAs.
Support: 1.4246, 1.42405, 1.4212
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4240 swing low breaks the post-CPI higher-low sequence and opens the ema50 at 1.4212, near the 23.6% of the CPI leg
Reclaim of the 1.4265 week high resolves the divergence and exposes the 1.4300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada CPI on Monday is the next CAD-specific test of the move
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday, flattening into a tight range under the week high.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print, followed by a steady grind through Wednesday as falling crude and the soft Canadian jobs data kept CAD heavy. Price holds above both EMAs, but Thursday's Asia push to a 1.4265 week high came with RSI(14) at 77–80 against 82.9 on Wednesday, and ATR has compressed from 10.9 to 8.7 pips. The higher-lows trendline is now being tested, with ema20 at 1.4245 the nearest support.
Support: 1.42453, 1.42335, 1.42104
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 at 1.4245 and the 1.4234 swing low would break the higher-lows sequence
Failure to hold 1.4234 opens a deeper pullback toward the ema50 at 1.4210, near the 38.2% retracement of the week rally
Close above the 1.4265 week high with RSI back above its prior peak would negate the bearish divergence and bring the 1.4300 round number into view
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Further slide in crude remains the main CAD driver behind the move
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 low, now compressing below the week high.
USDCAD has climbed about 190 pips from Monday's London low at 1.4077. The hot US CPI print drove the main leg in Tuesday's NY session, and a steady grind on Wednesday stretched it further, helped by a soft loonie and weaker crude. Asia printed a fresh week high at 1.4265, but RSI(14) at 75 sits below Wednesday's 82.9 peak, a mild bearish divergence, and ATR has compressed from 10.9 to 8.7 pips. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4244 and the higher-lows trendline. Tuesday's high at 1.4210 sits just above EMA(50) and marks the first deeper shelf, inside the 38.2% retracement of the weekly impulse.
Support: 1.42442, 1.42099, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below ema20 at 1.4244 and the higher-lows trendline would break the grind structure
Failure to hold the 1.4210 tue high, near EMA(50), puts the post-CPI swing low at 1.4179 and the weekly impulse 38.2% near 1.4193 in focus
A close above the 1.4265 week high opens the path toward the 1.4300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a run of Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, compressing at week high.
USDCAD has trended higher since Monday's London low at 1.4077. The main leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI beat, then Wednesday ground steadily higher through London-NY, and today's Asia session printed a fresh week high at 1.4265. Price holds above EMA(20) at 1.4243, along a rising higher-lows trendline, and above EMA(50) at 1.4206. RSI(14) at 73.6 is overbought and peaked at 80.2 on the new high, below Wednesday's 82.9, while ATR has compressed from 10.9 to 8.9 pips.
Support: 1.42426, 1.42335, 1.42064
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below ema20 at 1.4243 and the higher-lows trendline would mark the first break in this week's pullback rhythm
Failure to hold the 1.4234 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence; ema50 at 1.4206 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg
H1 close above the 1.4265 week high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Hammack, Daly, Williams) on 50bp odds could materially shift this read; Core PPI follows Friday
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI impulse, ATR compressing.
USD/CAD has climbed about 190 pips off Monday's 1.4077 low. The decisive leg came in Tuesday's NY session, when hot US CPI, last week's weak Canadian jobs data and softer crude drove the CPI impulse to a 1.4210 cpi high. Wednesday's London-NY grind and today's Asia session extended it to a 1.4265 week high, with price holding above EMA(20) at 1.4241 and EMA(50) at 1.4204 along a rising trendline of higher lows. RSI(14) at 77.3 is overbought and sits below Wednesday's 82.9 peak despite the new high, while ATR has compressed to 9.2 pips.
Support: 1.42411, 1.4210, 1.4180
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline near 1.4251 and the ema20 at 1.4241 would mark the first break in this week's structure
Failure to hold the 1.4210 cpi high exposes the 1.4180 swing low from Tuesday-Wednesday
Clean break of the 1.4265 week high keeps the uptrend extending toward the 1.4300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a run of Fed speakers today could materially shift this read, with Friday's Core PPI next
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI leg, ATR compressing.
USD/CAD is up about 140 pips from the 1.4119 week open. Tuesday's hot US CPI print around the NY open drove the main leg, and a steady London-to-NY grind on Wednesday extended it to a 1.4265 week high in the Asia session. Pullbacks have stayed shallow along a higher-lows trendline and above the ema20 (1.4239), with the ema50 at 1.4202. RSI has sat at 73–83 for 20 bars and printed a lower peak on the latest high, a mild bearish divergence as ATR compresses from 11.1 to 9.5 pips.
Support: 1.42391, 1.42335, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and the ema20 at 1.4239 would break Wednesday's grind structure
Loss of the 1.4234 swing low would mark the first lower low since Tuesday's CPI leg, with the ema50 near 1.4202 below
A clean H1 close above the 1.4265 week high with RSI making a new peak would negate the divergence; the 1.4300 round number is next above
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and the heavy Fedspeak slate including Hammack, Barr and Daly could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched and overbought · RSI 80 · price 1.42618
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI leg, now at the week high.
From the 1.4119 weekly open and Monday's 1.4077 low, the pair turned in the Tuesday NY session after the hot US CPI beat. That leg ran from 1.4113 to 1.4210, then extended through Wednesday's London and NY hours. Asia today printed a new week high at 1.42638, with price riding above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4237 and pullbacks holding the Wed low at 1.42335. RSI(14) is overbought at 80.2 but made a lower peak than Wednesday's 82.9 on the higher price high, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 11.1 to the 9-10 pip area.
Support: 1.4237, 1.42335, 1.41998
Resistance: 1.42638, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Wed low at 1.42335, and back under ema20, would break the higher-low sequence
Loss of ema50 near 1.4200 would expose the week impulse fib 38.2% zone around 1.4192
Clean acceptance above the 1.42638 week high leaves the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a heavy Fed speaker slate (Williams 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Canada CPI on Mon 16 Nov is the next CAD-specific risk to the extended move
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Monday's London dip to 1.4077. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove a NY-session break above the pre-CPI high at 1.4140, and Wednesday ground higher from London into NY to a week high at 1.4253, already past the 1.4230 cited in the digest. Since Wednesday's NY session price has compressed in a roughly 20-pip consolidation just above EMA(20) at 1.4233, with ATR(14) easing to 9 pips and RSI(14) cooling from 82.9 to 73.4, still overbought.
Support: 1.42327, 1.41794, 1.41397
Resistance: 1.42532, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below EMA(20) at 1.4233 breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the post-CPI low at 1.4179, near the 50% level of the CPI impulse fib
H1 close above the 1.4253 week high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold 1.4179 would put the pre-CPI high at 1.4140 back in play and test the higher-lows trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate (Williams late) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's low, grinding near week high.
USDCAD has climbed about 175 pips from Monday's 1.4077 London low. The hot US CPI print at Tuesday's NY open drove the main leg to Tuesday's 1.4210 CPI high, and Wednesday ground higher through London and NY to a 1.4253 week high, as weak Canadian jobs and soft oil add to the Fed-hike repricing. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4231 and EMA(50) at 1.4193. RSI(14) at 78.1 is overbought but slipped from 82.9 as the latest high printed, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 11.5 to 9.2 pips.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4210, 1.4193
Resistance: 1.4253, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 at 1.4231 and the higher-low trendline breaks the Wednesday grind
Loss of the 1.4210 cpi high exposes the ema50 at 1.4193 and the 38.2% of the week rally fib
Clearance of the 1.4253 week high opens the 1.4300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Friday's US core PPI is the next test for the 50bp repricing behind the move