USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:13 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near week high · RSI 58 · price 1.42695
Post-CPI impulse into a 1.4224–1.4274 range, higher lows holding.
The week's dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print lifted USD/CAD from 1.4105 to above 1.4200. Wednesday's steady grind higher then gave way to a 1.4224–1.4274 range from Thursday. Friday's soft PPI dipped price to 1.4228 during NY hours, a higher low just above Thursday's 1.4224 swing low, and the dip was quickly rejected. RSI(14) recovered from 36 to 58 and price closed back above the rising ema20 and ema50, pressing the week high as ATR eases from its PPI spike.
Support: 1.42588, 1.42471, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42737, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4274 week high breaks the range top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4224 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib of the CPI impulse near 1.4208
H1 closes back below ema20 at 1.4259 and ema50 at 1.4247 would put price back mid-range
Fed's Jefferson in under an hour, then Canada CPI and Warsh on Monday, could materially shift this read
22:25 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near week high · RSI 58 · price 1.42695
Higher lows since Tuesday; 1.4224–1.4274 range capping.
The week's dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print lifted USD/CAD from the 1.4105 low. Since Wednesday it has ground higher in a tighter 1.4224–1.4274 band with steadily higher lows. Friday's soft PPI pulled price to a 1.4228 swing low below the ema50, but the dip was bought back above both EMAs, with RSI(14) rebounding from 36 to 58.4. Price now presses the 1.4274 week high, just under the 1.4300 round number.
Support: 1.42588, 1.42471, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42737, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4274 week high opens the 1.4300 round number and the 1.4299 prior cap
Holding the rising ema20 (1.4259) keeps the higher-low sequence intact. Losing the ema50 (1.4247) shifts the read toward range
Break below the 1.4228 swing low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the week's structure
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC tonight; Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:48 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in a range · RSI 56 · price 1.42691
Post-impulse range 1.4224–1.4272, price pressing range top.
USD/CAD rallied about 165 pips from Tuesday's 1.4105 low, with London and then the NY session after the hot US CPI print driving the move, before settling into a 1.4224–1.4272 range from Thursday. Today's soft PPI triggered an NY-session dip that held the range low near the 23.6% retracement of the week's impulse. Price has since recovered above ema20 and ema50 to press the range top again, with RSI(14) rebounding from 36 to 56.1 and ATR easing to 10.7 pips.
Support: 1.42576, 1.42461, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4272, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4272 range top opens the 1.4300 round number, near the cited 1.4299 high
Slip back below ema20 at 1.4258 returns price to range-mid rotation, with ema50 at 1.4246 below
Break of the 1.4224 range low would breach the 23.6% retracement and end the higher-low structure
Fed's Jefferson tonight (00:00 UTC) and weekend gap risk could shift the open
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC can materially move the range read
Post-CPI impulse into a 1.4224–1.4271 range, higher lows intact.
Tuesday's hot US CPI at the NY open drove the week's CPI impulse from 1.4105 to the 1.4271 week high in Thursday's NY session, and price has since rotated in a 1.4224–1.4271 range above a rising EMA(50). Friday's dip around the PPI release and Fed speakers reached 1.4228, holding the range floor and the higher-low trendline from Tuesday's 1.4179 swing low. RSI(14) recovered from 36 to 57 as price reclaimed a flat EMA(20), with ATR easing from 12.1 back to 11.2 pips.
Support: 1.42568, 1.42454, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high breaks the range and opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4224 range floor and the higher-low trendline exposes the 38.2% CPI impulse retracement near 1.4208
Return below EMA(20) at 1.4257 and EMA(50) at 1.4245 puts price back in the lower half of the range
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Monday's Canada CPI (13:30 UTC) and Warsh (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI impulse into 1.4224–1.4271 range, price at range top.
Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the dominant leg of the week, lifting USD/CAD from the 1.4105 low through Wednesday's steady grind. Since Thursday it has held a 1.4224–1.4271 range, and dips toward the range floor during NY hours on Thursday and after Friday's softer PPI were both bought back. Price has reclaimed the ema20 and sits above a rising ema50, pressing the week high again with RSI(14) back to 57 from a 36 dip. ATR expanded on the PPI swing.
Support: 1.42558, 1.42445, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high breaks the range top and brings the 1.4300 round number into view
Loss of the 1.4224 range floor would expose the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg near 1.4208
Holding above the ema20 at 1.4256 keeps pullbacks within the range structure
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Jefferson tonight 00:00 UTC is a secondary risk to the range top
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into a range below the week high · RSI 56 · price 1.42637
Tuesday impulse leg, then a 1.4224–1.4271 range with shallow higher lows.
The week's move came in Tuesday's NY session. The hot US CPI print lifted price off the 1.4105 week low, and a steady grind through Wednesday's Asia and London sessions carried it to Thursday's 1.4271 week high. Since then the pair has ranged beneath that range top. NY-session dips on Thursday and after Friday's soft PPI both held at or above the 1.4224 swing low. RSI(14) recovered from 36 to 56 and price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50). Firmer oil supporting CAD and a still-firm USD have kept the range intact into the weekend.
Support: 1.42546, 1.42436, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high ends the range read and opens the 1.4300 round number
Break below the 1.4224 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the week rally's 38.2% retracement near 1.4208
Repeated H1 closes back below ema20 at 1.4255 and ema50 at 1.4244 would mark fading range support
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, then Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; a gap at the weekly open is possible
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in a range · RSI 52 · price 1.42554
Post-CPI impulse into a 1.4224–1.4271 range.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print drove the week's dominant leg during NY hours, carrying price from the 1.4105 London-session low to the 1.4271 range high by Thursday. Since then H1 has held a 1.4224–1.4271 range, a shallow pullback sitting near the 23.6% fib of that CPI impulse. Friday's dip on the soft PPI print found demand at the range low and was rejected within two bars, putting price back above a flat ema20 at 1.42535 with a rising ema50 at 1.42427 beneath. RSI(14) recovered from 36 to 51.8 while ATR(14) expanded to 12 pips.
Support: 1.42535, 1.42427, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 range high reopens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4224 range low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib of the CPI impulse near 1.4208
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.42535 would shift trade toward the lower half of the range, with the ema50 at 1.42427 next
Fed's Daly speaking now, then Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Thu–Fri range 1.4224–1.4271 after Tue–Thu impulse.
The week's dominant leg came in the NY session on Tuesday after the hot US CPI. It lifted the pair from the 1.4105 low through 1.4200, then ground higher to a 1.4271 week high on Thursday. Since then H1 has ranged between the 1.4224 range low and the range top, with rejection near 1.4270 on Thursday and again in Friday's London session. Today's dip on the slightly soft PPI held above the range low and has bounced to sit just under EMA(20) at 1.4253, with EMA(50) at 1.4242 below, RSI(14) recovering from 36 to 48.5 and ATR(14) expanding to 11.9 pips.
Support: 1.42422, 1.42241, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.42533, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high breaks the range top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.4253 restores the pullback-holding pattern; a loss of EMA(50) at 1.4242 points to a retest of the range low
Failure to hold the 1.4224 range low exposes Tuesday's 1.4210 high and the 38.2% rally fib near 1.4208
Fed's Daly in ~1h and Jefferson later could shift USD tone; Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this range
Double top at 1.4270 broke the 1.4250 range floor; testing Thursday low.
The CPI-driven impulse from Tuesday's 1.4105 London-open low set a week high at 1.4271 in Thursday's NY session, and a second test near 1.4270 in Friday's London session failed, leaving a double top over the 1.4250 range floor. Softer-than-forecast US PPI in the first hour of NY broke that floor and the rising line from Tuesday's low. Price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) down to 36 and ATR expanding to 11.3 pips, and is holding at the 23.6% fib just above Thursday's 1.4224 NY low.
Support: 1.42241, 1.42078, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42418, 1.4250, 1.42714
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4224 thu low opens the 38.2% fib at 1.4208 and the 1.4200 round number
Recovery back above the ema50 at 1.4242 and the 1.4250 range floor would turn the move into a false break
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk. Week high at 1.4271 marks the double top ceiling
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into a range below the week high · RSI 45 · price 1.42465
CPI-driven impulse from 1.4105 to 1.4271, then a 1.4224–1.4271 range since Thursday.
The week's dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print lifted the pair from 1.4105 toward the 1.4271 week high, reached Thursday. Since then price has ranged between the Thursday low at 1.4224 and the 1.4270 area, where Friday's London session produced a rejection just below the week high. The soft PPI headline knocked price below the EMA(20) at 1.4256 toward 1.4242, the same zone as the EMA(50). RSI(14) at 44.5 is the lowest in the last 20 bars, and the EMA(20) has flattened.
Support: 1.42423, 1.42241, 1.42078
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema50 near 1.4242 exposes the Thursday low at 1.4224
Break of the 1.4224 Thursday low would complete a double-top read off the 1.4270 range top, with the 38.2% fib at 1.4208 next
Recovery back above the ema20 at 1.4256 returns price to the middle of the range
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high exposes the 1.4300 round number
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; Canada CPI Monday is the next CAD driver
Higher lows since Tuesday, tight 1.4249–1.4271 range below the week high.
USD/CAD has built a CPI rally from Tuesday's 1.4105 low. The hot US CPI print drove the NY-session break, a steady Wednesday grind followed, and Thursday's NY open spike set a week high at 1.4271 as soft Canadian jobs and Fed-hike repricing weighed on CAD. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4249–1.4271 band, with the range top capping Thursday and again in Friday's London session. Close is a fraction above the flattening EMA(20) at 1.4257, RSI(14) has cooled to 52 and ATR has eased to 9.7 pips, while the higher-lows trendline and Friday low at 1.4249 sit just beneath.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42421, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~28 min) could break the 1.4249–1.4271 band; a soft core print would challenge the higher-lows trendline
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 round number, near the 19-month high
Failure to hold the Friday low at 1.4249 and the trendline puts the rising ema50 at 1.4242 and the Thursday low at 1.4224 in play
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could extend any post-PPI move during NY hours
Tight range 1.4249–1.4271 after CPI-driven impulse.
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print. It carried USDCAD from the 1.4105 swing low to Thursday's 1.4271 week high, as Fed-hike repricing met soft Canadian jobs data. Since Thursday's NY session the pair has compressed into a 1.4249–1.4271 range, and Friday's London push was capped just below the week high, while price holds above EMA(20) at 1.4257 and the rising EMA(50) at 1.4242. RSI(14) cycling 50–60 and ATR easing to 9.7 pips describe consolidation within the CPI rally rather than reversal.
Support: 1.42569, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the range either way
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high ends the range read and opens the 1.4300 round number
H1 close below the 1.4249 range floor exposes EMA(50) near 1.4242 and Thursday's low at 1.4224
Loss of Thursday's low at 1.4224 would mark the first lower-low since the CPI rally began
Canada CPI on Monday is the next CAD-side risk to the structure
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hotter US CPI print, lifting the pair from the 1.4130s through 1.4200. A steady grind followed on Fed-hike repricing and soft Canadian data, and Thursday's NY dip to the 1.4224 thursday low was reclaimed to print the 1.4271 week high. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4249–1.4268 band above EMA(20) at 1.4257 and EMA(50), with the friday low at 1.4249 the floor. RSI(14) is cycling 50–60 and ATR(14) has eased from 11.8 to 9.7 pips, showing the move is pausing rather than reversing.
Support: 1.42565, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; core is the focus versus the 0.3% MoM forecast
An H1 close above the 1.4271 week high extends the uptrend and opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4249 friday low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 1.4224 thursday low
A sustained break below ema20 at 1.4257 would end the consolidation's upward lean
Canada CPI on Monday could alter CAD pricing beyond this window
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 54 · price 1.42589
Higher lows since Tuesday's CPI impulse, now a 22-pip range under the week high.
The hot US CPI print drove Tuesday's NY-session leg from 1.4134 to 1.4210. Price then ground higher through Wednesday, completing a pre-CPI rally of roughly 166 pips from the 1.4105 low. Thursday's NY dip to a 1.4224 sweep low reversed within the hour to the 1.4271 week high, and since then price has held a 1.4249–1.4271 range. Price sits just above a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4255, with RSI(14) cycling 50–60 and ATR(14) compressing from 11.7 to 9.7 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42554, 1.4249, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, about 3.5h away, could break the range either way
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high clears the range top and exposes the 1.4300 round number
H1 close below the 1.4249 range floor puts the 1.4224 sweep low and the 38.2% retracement of the pre-CPI rally near 1.4208 in view
Fed's Bowman and Daly later today, then Canada CPI on Monday, could shift the read after PPI
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading into a range · RSI 50 · price 1.42514
Post-rally consolidation, 1.4249–1.4271 box with lower highs.
USDCAD climbed from Tuesday's 1.4105 low to a 1.4271 week high. The step change came in the NY session on the hotter US CPI, with soft oil and a dovish BoC read after weak Canadian jobs keeping CAD heavy through Wednesday's London-to-NY grind. Since the dip to the 1.4224 Thursday low at the NY open was swept and reclaimed, price has compressed in a 1.4249–1.4271 range under lower highs, now just below a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4255 and above the rising EMA(50) at 1.4239. RSI(14) has slid from 64 to 49.5 and ATR(14) has eased to 9.4 pips, so momentum is fading rather than reversing.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42388, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42551, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4249 range low exposes the ema50 at 1.4239 and the 1.4224 Thursday low (thu low)
A sustained push back above the EMA(20) at 1.4255 and through the lower-highs cap and 1.4271 week high puts the 1.4300 round number in view
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00), could break the range in either direction
A deeper retrace below the 1.4224 Thursday low would take price under the 23.6% level of the week rally fib
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under week high · RSI 55 · price 1.42576
Higher lows intact; tight 1.4250-1.4270 range below week high.
USDCAD has stepped higher all week. The dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print, which broke Monday's 1.4110-1.4135 range and carried price through 1.4200, while soft oil and the weak Canada jobs data kept CAD offered. Thursday's NY-session dip to the 1.4224 swing low reversed straight to a week high at 1.4271. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4250-1.4270 range, with a flattening ema20 at 1.4255 beneath, ATR(14) easing to 9.4 pips and RSI(14) holding 52-60, which reads as stalling momentum rather than a turn. The higher lows trendline and the 23.6% fib of the week's rally both remain intact below.
Support: 1.42554, 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4250 range low, back under the ema20, puts the 1.4224 swing low and the 23.6% fib in play
Failure to hold the 1.4224 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline and the weekly uptrend structure
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 round number, near the 19-month high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read during NY hours
Canada CPI on Monday is the next CAD input after the weekend
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight 1.4250–1.4270 range under week high.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The main leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hotter US CPI print, and Thursday's NY dip to the 1.4224 thu low recovered to a 1.4271 week high. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4250–1.4270 range through Asia, holding just above the ema20 at 1.4255 with RSI(14) flat in the 52–57 band and ATR easing from 11.8 to 9.4 pips. Bars are now slipping under the rising trendline from Tuesday's low.
Support: 1.42551, 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the range in either direction; Fed's Bowman and Daly follow
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high resumes the uptrend and opens the 1.4300 psych / 19-month-high area
Sustained trade below the range low at 1.4250 and the ema20 turns the consolidation into a deeper pullback toward the thu low at 1.4224
Loss of the 1.4224 thu low breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the 23.6% fib of the CPI leg near 1.4232 and the 38.2% near 1.4208 into play
USDCAD has climbed from Monday's 1.4077 low. The dominant leg came during NY hours on Tuesday's hotter-than-forecast US CPI, then extended to a week high at 1.4271 on Thursday after a dip to Thursday's low at 1.4224 was absorbed. Since then the pair has compressed into a roughly 20-pip band between the 1.4250 swing low and the week high, with price sitting above the ema20 (1.4255) and ema50 (1.4237). RSI(14) is holding 52–60 and ATR(14) has eased from 11.8 to 9.3 pips.
Support: 1.42551, 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 1.4250 swing low exposes the ema50 at 1.4237 and Thursday's low at 1.4224
Loss of Thursday's low at 1.4224 would break the higher-low sequence and put the Mon–Thu impulse into a deeper fib retracement
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Canada CPI on Monday at 13:30 UTC is the next CAD-side catalyst
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight Asian range just under the week high.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The decisive leg was Tuesday's CPI impulse in the NY session on the hotter US print, followed by a steady grind higher through Wednesday. Since Thursday's NY whipsaw from the 1.4224 thu low to the 1.4271 week high, price has compressed into a 20-pip Asian range just above a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4255, with RSI(14) easing from 66 to the mid-50s, ATR(14) contracting to 9.4 pips and the higher-lows trendline from Tuesday now under test.
Support: 1.42545, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the ema20 and the higher-lows trendline near 1.4250 would put the 1.4224 thu low back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4224 thu low exposes the 38.2% CPI impulse fib near 1.4208 and the 1.4200 round number
An H1 close above the 1.4271 week high opens the path to psych 1.43, the 1.4287-1.4300 band
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday, tight range under week high.
USDCAD has climbed about 195 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The step change came in the NY session after Tuesday's stronger-than-forecast US CPI, and a steady grind followed through Wednesday as Fed-BoC divergence and softer oil weighed on CAD. Thursday's NY dip held the thu low at 1.4224, near the 23.6% retracement of the Mon-Thu rally, then reversed to a 1.4271 week high, extending the higher-lows trendline. Through Asia price has compressed just above the flattening ema20 at 1.4254, with RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s to 53 and ATR slipping to 9.5 pips. The ema50 at 1.4235 is rising beneath.
Support: 1.42543, 1.42349, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and ema20 (~1.4252) shifts focus to ema50 at 1.4235
Failure to hold the thu low at 1.4224 breaks this week's higher-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to the trend
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling into a range · RSI 54 · price 1.42561
Higher lows since Monday; compressing 1.4224–1.4271 below the week high.
USD/CAD has climbed about 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The decisive leg came at Tuesday's NY open on the hotter US CPI print, followed by a steady grind through Wednesday as Fed-CAD divergence and softer oil kept CAD heavy. Since Thursday's NY-session push to the 1.4271 week high, price has compressed into a 1.4224–1.4271 range, holding just above EMA(20) at 1.4254 and EMA(50) at 1.4234 while RSI(14) eases from the high 60s to 54. Thursday's NY dip to the 1.4224 swing low was reclaimed within the hour, which keeps the higher-low trendline intact, though price now sits right on it.
Support: 1.42542, 1.42341, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above today's 1.4268 asia high and the 1.4271 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold ema20 and the higher-low trendline exposes ema50 at 1.4234
H1 close below the 1.4224 swing low breaks the week's higher-low sequence and opens the 38.2% retracement of the weekly impulse near 1.4197
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling near week high · RSI 53 · price 1.42533
Higher lows intact; consolidating 1.4224–1.4271 since Thursday.
USDCAD has climbed about 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 low. The dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hotter US CPI print, followed by a steady grind higher through Wednesday's sessions. Since Thursday the pair has held a 1.4224–1.4271 consolidation: the Thursday low held at the 23.6% weekly fib before NY reclaimed the move to a fresh week high, but that higher high printed with RSI(14) at 61 against 75 earlier in the day, a bearish divergence, and RSI has since eased to 52.5. Price now sits on the rising trendline and just above EMA(20) at 1.4254, with EMA(50) at 1.4233 still sloping higher.
Support: 1.42539, 1.42332, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and ema20 near 1.4250 exposes ema50 at 1.4233 and the Thursday low at 1.4224
Loss of the Thursday low breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the 38.2% weekly fib near 1.4197 into view
A close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Canada CPI on Monday at 13:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to the consolidation
Higher highs and higher lows; tight range under week high.
USDCAD is up roughly 190 pips from Monday's 1.4077 London low. Tuesday's hotter US CPI drove the dominant leg through 1.4200 during NY hours, and the pair has held a rising trendline of higher lows since. Thursday's NY dip to the 1.4224 swing low was absorbed within two bars and printed a week high at 1.4271. RSI(14) peaked near 61 on that high versus the mid-70s on Thursday's Asian high, a bearish divergence, and price has since compressed in a 1.4250–1.4268 band just above the EMA(20) at 1.4254.
Support: 1.42539, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the EMA(20) at 1.4254 and the rising trendline near 1.4250 would break the week's higher-low sequence.
Failure to hold the 1.4224 swing low exposes the 1.4200 round number and the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse near 1.4197.
A close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 round number; a higher RSI peak there would negate the divergence.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, followed by Bowman and Daly Fedspeak, could materially shift this read.
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; tight shelf below week high.
USD/CAD has climbed from Monday's 1.4077 low. The dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print, followed by a steady grind to 1.4250 on Wednesday, with weak Canadian jobs and softer oil leaving CAD without a cushion. Thursday's NY dip to the 1.4224 swing low recovered to a 1.4271 week high, keeping the higher-low trendline intact with price above EMA(20) at 1.4253 and EMA(50), but RSI(14) printed only ~61 at that high versus 77 earlier Thursday, a bearish divergence, as ATR eases to 10.4 pips.
Support: 1.42533, 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4271 week high opens the 1.4300 round number
Loss of ema20 (1.4253) and then the 1.4224 swing low would break the higher-low trendline
Below that, the 1.4200 round number sits just above the top of Tuesday's CPI leg
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read