22:26 UTC
Uptrend resumed, testing October high · RSI 68 · price 1.42695
Higher low at 1.3929 in early November; price back at the 1.4299 October high.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 340 pips in seven sessions off the 1.3929 Nov low. A strong NFP and hot US CPI cemented December Fed hike pricing, while soft Canada jobs data pared BoC bets. That Nov low held well above the 1.3759 September base, keeping the higher-low chain from the Sep-Oct rally intact. EMA20 has crossed back above a rising EMA50, and price is now pressing the 1.4299 Oct high with RSI at 68.3, just short of overbought.
Support: 1.41191, 1.40809, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.42993
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 1.4299 Oct high clears the October cap and opens fresh multi-month highs
- Rejection at the Oct high leaves a potential double top against the 1.3929 Nov low
- A daily close back below ema20 at 1.4119 puts ema50 at 1.4081 back in play
- Canada CPI and Fed Chair Warsh (both Mon 16 Nov) could materially shift this read
- A break of the higher-low trendline and the Nov low would invalidate the uptrend read