Post-CPI breakout, tight range below the day high with higher lows.
The 13:30 UTC US CPI beat broke the pair out of the London low at 1.4105 to a 1.4210 day high. Since the NY session pullback it has sat in a 1.4179–1.4191 range just above the ema20, holding the 23.6% fib with a run of higher lows. The BoC deliberations at 18:30 UTC drew little visible reaction, ATR(14) has compressed to 4.5 pips and RSI(14) is neutral at 54.5.
Support: 1.41856, 1.41794, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the 1.4210 day high
Break of the higher-lows line and the 1.4179 range low exposes the 1.4155 post-CPI low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speaking from 23:30 UTC; any endorsement of a 50bp December step could break the consolidation
The US CPI beat drove a near 90-pip NY rally from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 cpi high. Price then pulled back to a 1.4179 swing low, roughly 23.6–38.2% of the rally, and has since compressed into a 1.4179–1.4191 band through the BoC deliberations and late NY. It holds above the ema20 at 1.4186 and the ema50 at 1.4174, with RSI(14) at 58.8 and ATR(14) easing to 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.41855, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speaking now (23:30 UTC) could break the compression; 25bp vs 50bp tone is the swing factor
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the path to the 1.4210 cpi high
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low breaks the post-CPI fib 23.6% shelf and exposes the 38.2% near 1.4176
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing after CPI leg · RSI 58 · price 1.41882
Post-CPI pullback held 1.4179; tight 1.4179–1.4191 band into early Asia.
The hot US CPI print drove an ~89-pip NY leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 session high. The pullback found its swing low at 1.4179, just above the 38.2% of the CPI leg fib. Price has since compressed in a 1.4179–1.4191 band above both the ema20 and ema50, with ATR(14) down to 4.9 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 57.5.
Support: 1.41851, 1.41794, 1.41729
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the 1.4210 session high
Break of the 1.4179 swing low brings the ema50 at 1.4173 into play
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC (14 min); a 50bp endorsement or pushback could break the compression
23:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, now consolidating · RSI 56 · price 1.4188
Tight range 1.4179–1.4191 below the 1.4210 session high, holding above ema20.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove an 88-pip NY session leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 session high. The pullback found a swing low at 1.4179, near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg fib. Since the London-NY wind-down, price has sat in a 1.4179–1.4191 range around a flattening ema20, with ema50 rising beneath at 1.4172 and ATR(14) compressed to 5 pips. RSI(14) is neutral at 55.8, and the BoC deliberations release left little mark on the chart.
Support: 1.41848, 1.41794, 1.41722
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top opens a retest of the 1.4210 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low exposes ema50 at 1.4172 and the 50% CPI leg fib near 1.4166
Tight 1.4179–1.4191 range under lower highs from the 1.4210 day high.
The hot US CPI print drove a ~90-pip NY leg from 1.4121 to a 1.4210 day high. Price has since drifted into a 1.4179–1.4191 consolidation that absorbed the BoC deliberations release without a break. Early Asia trade sits just under ema20 at 1.4185, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.8, ATR(14) compressed to 5 pips and lower highs capping the range top.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41716, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41846, 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4179 range low exposes ema50 at 1.4172 and the 1.4155 cpi pullback low
Close above the 1.4191 range top breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.4210 day high back into view
Holding above the 38.2% of the cpi rally fib near 1.4176 keeps the retracement shallow
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (in ~45 min) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, stalling into a tight range · RSI 53 · price 1.41843
Impulse to 1.4210, then lower highs into a 1.4179–1.4191 range after NY close.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the Asian range and carried USDCAD to a 1.4210 session high by 16:00. Since then a falling-highs line has capped price, which now sits in a 1.4179–1.4191 range between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the CPI leg fib. Price is fractionally below the 1.4185 EMA20 and above the 1.4171 EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.8 and ATR down from 8.8 to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.4179, 1.4171, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4191, 1.4210
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compressed range
A close above the 1.4191 range top and the falling-highs line reopens the 1.4210 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4179 range low exposes the 1.4171 ema50, then the 1.4155 post-cpi low near the 50% fib
22:16 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pausing in tight range · RSI 56 · price 1.41863
Higher low at 1.4179 after fade from 1.4210 day high; 1.4179–1.4191 range since NY afternoon.
The hot US CPI broke the pair out of its 1.4105–1.4140 morning range to a 1.4210 day high. The pullback held at a 1.4179 swing low, just above the 38.2% retrace of the 1.4122–1.4210 leg. Since then price has coiled in a 12-pip range (range top 1.4191) into the Asia handover, with lower highs off the day high. Price is sitting on the ema20 at 1.4185, the ema50 is at 1.4171, and ATR has compressed to 5.2 pips from 9.1.
Support: 1.41848, 1.41794, 1.41706
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the 1.4210 day high
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low exposes the ema50 at 1.4171
Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC and could break the compression
A break of the lower-highs line from 1.4210 ends the pullback read
Tight range 1.4179–1.4191 below the post-CPI high, higher lows forming.
Hot US CPI drove USDCAD from 1.4121 to a 1.4210 cpi high during NY hours. The pullback held the 1.4179 swing low, above the 38.2% of the post-CPI fib. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4179–1.4191 range after the NY close, sitting just above the ema20, with RSI(14) at 58.5 and ATR(14) easing to 5.3 pips from 9.6.
Support: 1.41846, 1.41794, 1.4170
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the 1.4210 cpi high
Break of the 1.4179 swing low exposes the 38.2% retracement near 1.4176 and the ema50 at 1.4170
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the range
Post-CPI breakout, tight range 1.4179–1.4191 holding above ema20.
The hot US CPI print broke the pair out of the Asian and London range near 1.4130. The NY session ran to a session high at 1.4210 before easing back to a 1.4179 swing low. Since then, late NY hours have compressed into a 12-pip band between the ema20 and the 1.4191 range top. The band sits between the 38.2% and 50% post-CPI fib, with RSI(14) cooled from 70 to 57.6 and ATR down to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.41843, 1.41794, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4179 swing low exposes the 1.4155 cpi pullback low
Close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the 1.4210 session high
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could break the compression
21:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, stalling in tight range · RSI 56 · price 1.41858
The hot US CPI beat broke USDCAD out of the Asian and London range near 1.4140 and ran it to a 1.4210 session high, with sliding crude adding to CAD weakness. Since then, late NY trade has held a shallow pullback just above the 38.2% fib at the 1.4179 swing low. Price now sits in a 12-pip range between there and the 1.4191 range top, hugging a flattening ema20. RSI has cooled from 76 to 56 and ATR has compressed to 5.8 pips, with the BoC Summary of Deliberations and Bowman's remarks leaving little mark.
Support: 1.41839, 1.41794, 1.41685
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top and the lower-high line puts the 1.4210 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low, below the 38.2% fib, exposes the ema50 near 1.4169
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could break the compressed range
Tight 1.4179–1.4190 range below the 1.4210 CPI high.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London range near 1.4140 and ran to the 1.4210 cpi high in NY, with soft crude adding weight on CAD. Price has since faded into a 1.4179–1.4190 range in late NY, sitting just above the ema20 and holding the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg near 1.4176. RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 59.7, ATR(14) has compressed from 10 to 5.8 pips, and the BoC deliberations barely moved price.
Support: 1.41837, 1.41794, 1.41678
Resistance: 1.41895, 1.42099
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4190 range top reopens the 1.4210 cpi high
Failure to hold the 1.4179 late-ny low exposes the 38.2% cpi leg fib at 1.4176, then the ema50 at 1.4168
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the late-session compression
Post-CPI range above ema20, lower highs off 1.4210.
The hot US CPI beat drove a 13:30 UTC impulse from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 CPI high. Since then price has held a tight 1.4179–1.4190 range, a shallow ~34% retrace of the CPI rally fib, with the 1.4179 swing low holding and price back above the ema20. RSI(14) has cooled from 82 to 60 and ATR(14) has compressed to 6.1 pips into late NY, with little reaction to the BoC deliberations.
Support: 1.41832, 1.41794, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.42099
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4190 range cap opens a retest of the 1.4210 CPI high
A close below the 1.4179 swing low breaks the post-CPI range and exposes the 1.4155 post-CPI low
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.4210 peak, compressing above ema20.
The hot US CPI beat drove a 55-pip leg from the 1.4155 CPI low to a 1.4210 NY session high. A lower-high fade has since brought price back to the 50% fib and ema20 near 1.4182, with RSI(14) cooled from 81.8 to 55.5. Late-NY trade is compressing in a 1.4179–1.4190 range as ATR shrinks to 6.2 pips, and the BoC deliberations barely moved price.
Support: 1.41825, 1.41794, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4179 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4176, then the 1.4155 CPI low
Close above the 1.4190 range top and the lower-high line reopens the 1.4210 session high
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could shift USD tone on 25 vs 50bp
20:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, correcting in late NY · RSI 56 · price 1.41836
Lower highs off 1.4210, tight 1.4179–1.4189 range above ema20.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC drove a roughly 90-pip NY run from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 NY high. Since then a chain of lower highs has pulled RSI(14) back from 81.8 to 55.5, and price is now in a tight late-NY range between the 1.4179 swing low and the 1.4189 range top, just above the ema20. ATR(14) has compressed to 6.2 pips, and the BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC barely moved the pair.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41653
Resistance: 1.41885, 1.42099
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, with Bowman and Paulson again at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp December talk could break the late-NY range
An M15 close above the 1.4189 range top breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4210 NY high
A close below the 1.4179 swing low exposes the 38.2% CPI rally fib at 1.4176, then the ema50 near 1.4165 at the 50% retrace
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in a shallow flag · RSI 58 · price 1.4186
Post-CPI breakout, lower highs off 1.4210 session high.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke USDCAD out of the 1.4105–1.4140 Asian/London range to a 1.4210 session high. NY has since carved a descending flag. RSI(14) has cooled from 81.8 to 58 and ATR has compressed to 6.4 pips. Price is holding just above the ema20 at 1.4182 and the 19:45 UTC swing low at 1.4179, which sits just above the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg.
Support: 1.41824, 1.41794, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41885, 1.42099
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (minutes away) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4189 flag top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4210 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4176, then the 1.4155 post-CPI low
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after CPI impulse · RSI 54 · price 1.41839
Post-CPI breakout, then lower highs and lower lows into late NY.
The hot US CPI beat broke USDCAD out of the Asian and London range, running to a 1.4210 session high as RSI(14) peaked near 82. Late NY has since printed a chain of lower highs, with price just under the ema20 at 1.4182 and above the ema50 at 1.4164. ATR has compressed to 6.4 pips and the BoC deliberations release drew little reaction.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41761, 1.41637
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.41885, 1.42099
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4179 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4176, then the ema50 at 1.4164
An M15 close above the 1.4189 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4210 session high
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read if 50bp December talk resurfaces
The US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC drove a ~90-pip impulse to the 1.4210 session high in the first hours of NY. Since then a flag-like drift of lower highs has stalled at the 1.4182 swing low, which sits on the ema20, while the BoC deliberations barely moved price. RSI(14) has cooled from 82 to 57 and ATR(14) has compressed from 10 to 6.5 pips into the late NY session.
Support: 1.41825, 1.41761, 1.4163
Resistance: 1.41885, 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, in ~45 min, could break the late-session compression
M15 close below the 1.4182 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4176 (post-CPI high), then the ema50 near 1.4163
M15 close above the 1.4189 lower high breaks the flag and reopens the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4210 session high
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after post-CPI spike · RSI 57 · price 1.41844
Lower highs off the 1.4210 day high, base at 1.4182.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove an 88-pip leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 day high, extending the move Waller's comments started at 09:00 UTC. Into late NY the pair has carved a controlled flag of lower highs. The 1.4182 pullback low has held twice just above the ema20 (1.4182), inside the 23.6–38.2% zone of the post-CPI leg fib. RSI(14) has cooled from 81.8 to 56.9 and ATR has compressed to 6.7 pips; the BoC deliberations at 18:30 UTC barely registered.
Support: 1.41825, 1.41761, 1.41621
Resistance: 1.41878, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4188 lower high breaks the flag's lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4210 day high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4182 pullback low and ema20 exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4176, then the ema50 near 1.4162
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and again at 23:30 UTC: openness to a 50bp December hike, or pushback on it, could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back · RSI 57 · price 1.4184
Lower highs off 1.4210, compressing at ema20.
The hot US CPI print drove a breakout through the 1.4140 pre-data cap to a 1.4210 day high in early NY hours. Since then price has put in a run of lower highs and now sits on the ema20 near 1.4182, just above the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg. RSI(14) has cooled from 82 to 57, ATR(14) has compressed to 7 pips and the BoC Summary of Deliberations barely moved price.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4176, 1.4166
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4210
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 1.4176 exposes the cpi bar high / 50% retrace near 1.4166
Close above the 1.4190 lower high ends the pullback sequence and puts the 1.4210 day high back in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~74m) could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back in late NY · RSI 59 · price 1.41839
Impulse to 1.4210 then lower highs into ema20.
The hot US CPI print broke the 1.4105–1.4135 pre-data range and drove a ~90-pip run to the 1.4210 day high, with RSI(14) peaking near 82. Since 15:30 UTC price has stepped down in lower highs to sit just above the ema20 at 1.4181 after London close. ATR is easing to 7.3 pips, and the 18:30 UTC BoC deliberations release left little mark.
Support: 1.41814, 1.41761, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 and the 1.4176 38.2% fib of the post-CPI rally deepens the pullback toward the 1.4155 swing low
Close back above the 1.4190 lower high breaks the pullback's lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4210 day high back in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Uptrend, pullback in progress · RSI 58 · price 1.41837
Post-CPI impulse to 1.4210, now lower highs retracing toward ema20.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC broke USDCAD out of the Asian and London range and ran it to a 1.4210 session high near London close. Since then a chain of lower highs has retraced to the 50% fib of the post-CPI leg, with price holding just above ema20 at 1.4181. RSI(14) has cooled from 81.8 to 57.8 and ATR(14) has compressed to 7.6 pips as the pullback slows in late NY hours.
Support: 1.4181, 1.41758, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close below ema20 at 1.4181 and the fib 61.8% at 1.4176 deepens the pullback toward the 1.4155 swing low
M15 close above the pullback line and the 1.4190 lower high breaks the flag, putting the 1.4210 session high back in play
Reaction to the BoC Summary of Deliberations (18:30 UTC) and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after CPI spike · RSI 61 · price 1.41869
Post-CPI impulse to 1.4210, now a lower-highs drift above ema20.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the pair out of its 1.4105–1.4140 London range and ran it to a 1.4210 session high, with RSI(14) peaking at 81.8. Since 16:00 UTC, after London close, price has slipped in a chain of lower highs back to the 1.4186 pullback low near the 38.2% fib. RSI has cooled to 61 and ATR has compressed to 7.9 pips, with price still above the ema20 at 1.4181.
Support: 1.41864, 1.41807, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (current bar) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4186 pullback low and the ema20 at 1.4181 opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.4155 swing low
Close back above the lower highs line and the 1.4200 round number reopens the 1.4210 session high
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC is the next USD risk
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back off NY high · RSI 62 · price 1.41884
Post-CPI breakout, lower highs since 1.4210 peak.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke USDCAD out of the London range above 1.4140 and carried NY to a 1.4210 session high. Since then a run of lower highs has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib near the 1.4186 swing low, with the ema20 at 1.4180 just beneath. RSI(14) has cooled from 82 to 62 and ATR has eased to 8.3 pips.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4180, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4202, 1.4210
What it said to watch
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC, about 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the ema20 at 1.4180 exposes the 1.4155 cpi low, the base of the breakout leg
A close above the 1.4202 lower high puts the 1.4210 session high back in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC is the next USD risk after the BoC
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from day high · RSI 61 · price 1.41896
Post-CPI higher highs; late-NY pullback to 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London high at 1.4140, and NY hours extended the move to a 1.4210 day high. Price has since eased about 22 pips to the 38.2% fib of the CPI-low-to-day-high leg near 1.4189. RSI(14) has cooled from 81.8 to 61.1 and ATR is contracting to 8.6 pips, while price holds above the ema20 at 1.4179.
Support: 1.4179, 1.41548, 1.41397
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~28 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the ema20 at 1.4179 exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone and the 1.4155 cpi low
Reclaim of the 1.4210 day high resumes the post-CPI higher-high chain
Failure of the 1.4140 london high (breakout level) would unwind the CPI breakout
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC is the next USD headline risk
17:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 65 · price 1.41917
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC lifted price through the 1.4140 morning highs. The NY session extended the leg to a 1.4210 session high before stalling below the 1.4200 psych level. Price is now easing to a 1.4190 pullback low near the 38.2% of the CPI leg, still above the ema20 at 1.4178, with RSI(14) cooled from 81.8 to 64.8 and ATR easing to 8.8 pips.
Support: 1.4190, 1.41782, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (in ~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the ema20 at 1.4178 (near the 61.8% of the CPI leg) would signal the pullback deepening
Failure to hold the 1.4155 post-cpi low breaks the higher-low chain
Close back above 1.4200 psych and the 1.4210 session high resumes the leg; Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC is the next risk
Higher lows since the CPI spike; shallow pullback from session high.
The US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USDCAD out of the 1.4105–1.4140 London range, and NY hours carried it to a 1.4210 session high, with sliding crude adding to CAD weakness. RSI(14) has cooled from 81.8 to 67.8 as price eases back. It holds the 1.4192 pullback low, above the ema20 and the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI leg, with the higher lows from the 1.4122 London low intact.
Support: 1.41916, 1.41768, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 session high resumes the post-CPI leg. The 1.4200 round number is the first cap.
Break of the 1.4192 pullback low exposes the ema20 at 1.4177 and the 50% retracement near 1.4182.
Loss of the 1.4155 cpi low breaks the rising lows chain.
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read. A hawkish tone has more room to move CAD given the stretched run.
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 25bp vs 50bp for December.
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 68 · price 1.41944
Post-CPI breakout, first pullback off 1.4210.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%), with crude sliding, broke USD/CAD out of the overnight 1.4105–1.4140 range. The NY session extended to a 1.4210 session high near London close. Price is now fading below the 1.4200 round number with RSI(14) cooling from 81.8 to 67.5, testing the 1.4192 swing low, while the ema20 at 1.4175 sits on the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4175, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4210
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4192 swing low extends the pullback toward the ema20 / 38.2% CPI-leg fib at 1.4175
Failure to hold the 1.4155 post-cpi low would break the higher-low chain of the CPI leg
Reclaim of the 1.4200 round number and a close above the 1.4210 session high resumes the uptrend
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~75 min) and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI range break, higher lows from 1.4155 swing low.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the pair out of its 1.4105–1.4140 overnight/London range, and sliding crude added to CAD weakness through the NY session. That leg ran to a 1.4210 session high. Late in NY, price is easing just under the 1.4200 round number, with RSI(14) cooling from 81.8 to 70.5. ATR has expanded to 9.5 pips, and the ema20 at 1.4173 and the 1.4155 swing low sit beneath the post-CPI fib retrace.
Support: 1.4190, 1.41731, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4190 breakout low exposes the ema20 at 1.4173 and the 50% fib retrace
Failure to hold the 1.4155 swing low breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain
Close above the 1.4210 session high and the 1.4200 round number resumes the uptrend leg
Post-CPI breakout of London range, higher highs into NY afternoon, first pause at 1.4210.
The hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USDCAD out of its 1.4105–1.4140 London range at the NY open. A second leg ran from the 1.4155 cpi dip low to a 1.4210 session high, with ATR(14) up to 9.7 pips from about 5. RSI(14) has eased to 76.4 from 81.8 and price is holding just above the 1.4200 psych level, with ema20 trailing at 1.4171.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41705, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 psych level exposes ema20 at 1.4171
Acceptance above the 1.4210 session high extends the post-CPI leg
Loss of the 1.4155 cpi dip low would retrace the whole post-CPI leg
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~104 min) could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC is a second event risk for USD
Post-CPI breakout, higher-high/higher-low chain into new session high.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USDCAD out of the 1.4105–1.4140 London range. The NY session has stair-stepped since, with a higher low at the 1.4155 swing low and a new session high at 1.4210. RSI(14) peaked at 81.8 and sits at 77.6, price holds just above the 1.4200 round number, and ATR has doubled to 10 pips.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4167, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 round number would mark the first lower close off the session high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4167 breaks the post-CPI leg's higher-low sequence
Failure below the 1.4155 swing low invalidates the NY breakout structure
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC is a second event risk for the USD side
Post-CPI breakout, HH/HL staircase well above the Asian range.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.4140 pre-release session high. NY hours have since stepped higher in an unbroken HH/HL chain through the 1.4200 round number to a 1.4210 session high, well clear of the Asian range. RSI(14) at 81.8 is stretched and ATR(14) has nearly doubled to 10.1 pips; below 1.4200, the 1.4176 CPI high and the 1.4155 swing low are the nearest structural supports.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41761, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4200 round number would mark the first loss of post-CPI momentum
A break under the 1.4155 swing low would end the HH/HL chain from the post-CPI leg
Acceptance above the 1.4210 session high extends the post-CPI leg
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on the 25 vs 50bp December question
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) drove an 80-pip leg off 1.4121 in the first hour of NY, and a higher low at the 1.4155 pullback low fed a fresh push to the 1.4202 session high, well clear of the Asian range. RSI(14) is overbought at 79.5 and ATR has nearly doubled to 10 pips. The CPI spike high at 1.4176 and the post-CPI trend line are the nearest structure below.
Support: 1.4176, 1.4155, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4202
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4202 session high, near the 1.4200 round number, would leave a stall with RSI near 80
M15 close back below the 1.4176 CPI spike high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4155 pullback low breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4140 pre-CPI high, where EMA50 also sits
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 13:30 UTC range break.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) broke the 1.4105–1.4140 overnight range, the pre-cpi top, and the NY session has stacked higher highs to a 1.4192 session high. The 1.4155 higher low is holding just above the rising ema20 (1.41539), and the move is retracing off the 1.4121 cpi leg fib low. RSI(14) is overbought at 77.4, and ATR has expanded to 9.9 pips from ~5.5 pre-release.
Support: 1.41761, 1.41548, 1.41403
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4176 cpi high puts the 1.4155 higher low and the cpi trend line in play
A close back under the 1.4140 pre-cpi top would turn the breakout into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.4200 round number extends the HH chain beyond the session high
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~2h45m) and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Breakout above London high, HH/HL chain since the CPI print.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) on top of soft-oil CAD drag broke the pair out of the London high near 1.4140. That move built a higher low at the 1.4155 swing low and has now cleared the 1.4176 CPI spike high to a fresh session high at 1.4183 in the second hour of NY. RSI(14) at 74 is hot, ATR has expanded to 9.7 pips from ~5.5 pre-release, and price sits well above the ema20 at 1.4150 along the post-CPI HL line.
Support: 1.41761, 1.41548, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.41826, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4176 cpi spike high would mark the latest push as a rejection
Failure to hold the 1.4155 swing low and post-CPI HL line breaks the HH/HL chain
Return below the 1.4140 London high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4183 session high puts the 1.4200 round number in play
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout above 1.4140, lower high inside early NY range.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the pair out of its 1.4105–1.4140 London range and spiked it to a 1.4176 CPI high. A pullback low at 1.4155 and a lower high at 1.4168 now frame the early NY consolidation. RSI(14) has cooled from 78.9 to 67.1 and ATR(14) has expanded to 9.6 pips, while the pre-CPI high at 1.4140 lines up with ema20 (1.4142) and the 50% fib of the London-CPI leg.
Support: 1.41548, 1.41403, 1.41224
Resistance: 1.41682, 1.41761, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4155 pullback low exposes the 1.4140 pre-CPI high / ema20 / 50% fib zone
Return below 1.4140 would mark the CPI move a false break, with the 1.4122 swing low next
Close above the 1.4176 CPI high reopens the 1.4200 round number
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London low; post-CPI pullback from session high.
The hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USDCAD out of the Asian range and through the 1.4140 channel top, which the CAD digest had flagged, printing the cpi high at 1.4176. That extends the higher-low chain that began at the 1.4105 London low after Waller. Price is now easing toward the post-cpi low at 1.4155, with RSI(14) cooled from 78.9 to 64.3 and ATR(14) expanded to 9.4 pips from about 5.5.
Support: 1.41548, 1.4140, 1.41224
Resistance: 1.41761, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4155 post-cpi low exposes 1.4140, where the ema20 sits on the former channel top
M15 close back below the 1.4122 swing low breaks the rising lows and the breakout read
Close above the 1.4176 cpi high opens the 1.4200 round number
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Breakout above 1.4140 channel top, first pullback in early NY.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.4140 channel top and the pre-CPI session high, spiking to the 1.4176 cpi high before easing to the 1.4162 cpi pullback area in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) cooled to 69.3 from 78.9 as ATR expanded to 9.2 pips. The 38.2% retracement of the Waller-CPI leg from 1.4105 sits near 1.4149, above the channel top.
Support: 1.4162, 1.4140, 1.41287
Resistance: 1.41761, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4140 channel top would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.4176 cpi high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the 1.4162 cpi pullback low exposes the 38.2% retracement near 1.4149
Drop under ema50 at 1.4129 would erase most of the Waller-CPI leg
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the 1.4105 London low; post-CPI range break above 1.4140.
A hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the pair above the 1.4140 pre-CPI high and printed a 1.4176 CPI high in the first hour of NY. The breakout extends a higher-low chain that started at the 1.4105 London low and gathered pace after Waller's speech. RSI(14) at 78.9 is hot but below 80, and ATR has expanded to 9.1 pips from ~5.6.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41357, 1.41214
Resistance: 1.41761, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4140 pre-CPI high, which lines up with the 50% retracement of the London-CPI leg, keeps the breakout intact
A return below 1.4140 and the ema20 at 1.4136 would turn the move into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.4176 CPI high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
A close below the 1.4121 CPI low unwinds the entire CPI spike
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open, break above day's prior high.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% and core 0.3% MoM, both above forecast) drove a NY-open breakout through the 1.4140 prior high to a 1.4166 cpi high. RSI(14) is 75.3 and ATR(14) has expanded to 8.4 pips from 5.6. Price is holding near the bar high and above the ema20 at 1.4132, with the higher-low trendline from the 1.4105 London low and the 1.4122 swing low intact.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41319, 1.41224
Resistance: 1.4166, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4140 prior high would mark the CPI move as a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4166 cpi high opens the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the 1.4122 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Core and headline CPI YoY prints still pending; BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could shift this read
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, CPI-driven range expansion · RSI 60 · price 1.41573
London higher lows from 1.4105; CPI bar broke above the 1.4140 prior high.
London built a higher-low chain off the 1.4105 session low after Waller's remarks. The US CPI bar, still forming, whipsawed to 1.4124 before breaking through the 1.4140 prior high (the channel top in the market_context digest) to a 1.4158 cpi high. That bar spans about 35 pips against a 5.6-pip ATR, and price sits above the ema20 at 1.4129 and the ema50.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41289, 1.41224
Resistance: 1.41584, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4140 prior high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4122 swing low breaks the London higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4158 cpi high leaves the 1.4200 round number as the next reference; the 50% retrace of the london low-cpi high leg sits near 1.4132
The CPI bar is still forming, so a close well off 1.4158 would weaken the breakout read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could shift CAD after the CPI move
13:16 UTC
Uptrend since London, pressing session high · RSI 62 · price 1.41367
Higher lows off 1.4122 under the 1.4140 session high.
Waller's hawkish warning at 09:00 UTC lifted the pair off the 1.4105 london low to a 1.4140 session high, which also marks the channel top cited in the digest. The 1.4122 swing low held, and a rising trendline of higher lows has price back under that high with RSI(14) at 62 and price above the ema20 at 1.4128. US CPI lands in 14 minutes.
Support: 1.41282, 1.41224, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.41397, 1.4150
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC can easily exceed the 5.7-pip ATR and reset this read
M15 close above the 1.4140 session high opens the 1.4150 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the ema20 at 1.4128 puts the 1.4122 swing low in play
Failure to hold the 1.4122 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 61.8% near 1.4118 and the 1.4105 london low
Higher lows from London low, capped at 1.4136-1.4140.
Waller's hawkish warning at 09:00 UTC lifted USDCAD off the 1.4105 London low, through yesterday's 1.4136 prior high, to a 1.4140 session high. The pullback held the 1.4122 swing low near the 50% retracement. Price is now coiling between the ema20 and the session high, with ATR at 5.5 pips and US CPI 29 minutes out.
Support: 1.41273, 1.41224, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.41397
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%), preceded by ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC, likely sets the next leg
An M15 close above the 1.4140 session high, which is also the descending-channel top, breaks the intraday cap
A close below the 1.4122 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4105 London low
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could shift the read late in the NY session
London higher low at 50% retrace; lower high at 1.4138, 1.4122–1.4140 range pre-CPI.
London ran from the 1.4105 london low to a 1.4140 session high after Waller's hawkish remarks. The pullback held the 50% retrace at 1.4122. A second push was rejected at 1.4138 for a lower high, so price is ranging 1.4122–1.4140 above ema20 with RSI(14) back at 55.6 from 70 and ATR at 5.5 pips into US CPI.
Support: 1.41266, 1.41224, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.41377, 1.41397
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4140 session high breaks the range and clears the channel top
Failure at the 1.4138 lower high followed by a close below ema20 shifts focus to the 50% retrace
Loss of the 50% retrace at 1.4122 opens the 1.4105 london low
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off the session high · RSI 59 · price 1.41322
Higher low at 1.4122 after a breakout above the Asian range and prior high.
London open swept the Asian low, printing the london low at 1.4105. Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC then drove a breakout through the Asian range and the 1.4136 prior high to a 1.4140 session high, with RSI(14) peaking at 70.4. The pullback set a swing low at 1.4122 on the 50% fib, and price is back above the ema20 at 1.4126 heading into US CPI.
Support: 1.41262, 1.41224, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.41397
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~60 min; core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4140 session high clears the digest's channel-top pivot
Failure to hold the 1.4122 swing low breaks the higher-low chain from the london low
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is secondary CAD risk
London swept its low, then broke the Asian range high; pullback held the 50% fib.
Waller's tightening warning at 09:00 UTC lifted the pair from the 1.4105 london low through the Asian range high. Supply capped the move at the 1.41397 session high, just above yesterday's 1.41362 prior high and under the 1.4140 channel top. The pullback found demand at 1.41224, the 50% fib, and price now sits just above the ema20 at 1.41256. RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 53, and ATR is near 5 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.41256, 1.41224, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.41397
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~74 min), core m/m f/c 0.2%, is the main swing risk for this read
An M15 close above the 1.41397 session high clears the prior high and tests the 1.4140 channel top
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.41224, with ema50 at 1.41219, exposes the 1.4105 london low
A slip below the ema20 at 1.41256 turns the move into a sideways range under the session high
London rallied from its 1.4105 low through yesterday's 1.4136 prior high to a 1.4140 session high, then met rejection at the channel top cited in the digest. The pullback held the 1.4122 swing low at the 50% fib, keeping higher lows intact. Price is now holding just above ema20 in pre-CPI chop, with RSI(14) cooled from 70 to 55.
Support: 1.41254, 1.41224, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.41397
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 4-wk at 13:15) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4140 session high breaks the channel-top rejection read
Loss of ema20 and the 1.4122 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 1.4105 london low
Prior high at 1.4136 is the first test for any renewed push
11:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pullback held · RSI 57 · price 1.41291
Higher low at 50% retrace beneath London session high.
London broke the Asian range around Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks and tagged a 1.41397 session high, just above Monday's high at 1.41362. Rejection there pulled price back to 1.41224, the 50% retrace of the London leg. Price has since recovered above the ema20 at 1.41251, with RSI(14) at 56.7 and ATR(14) at 5.3 pips, coiling into US CPI.
Support: 1.41251, 1.41224, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.41397
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 4-week average at 13:15) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the session high and the 1.4140 channel top in play
A close back above Monday's high at 1.41362 reopens the session high at 1.41397
A break below the 50% retrace at 1.41224 undercuts the higher low and exposes the London low at 1.4105
London sweep of Asian low, then HH and a 50% pullback.
London open swept the Asian range low near 1.4111 down to the london low at 1.4105. A 09:00 UTC rally around Waller's remarks then cleared the prior NY high at 1.41365, but was rejected at the 1.4140 session high, which matches the digest's channel top. The pullback held the 50% fib at 1.4123 as a higher low, price is back above the ema20 at 1.4125, and RSI(14) has cooled to 53.8 from 70, with ATR at 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.4125, 1.41228, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.41401
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4140 session high breaks the channel top
Losing the 1.4123 higher low and 50% fib exposes the 1.4105 london low
Holding above the ema20 at 1.4125 keeps the prior high at 1.41365 in play
London low swept, impulse to 1.4140 rejected, retracing.
London open swept below the Asian range to 1.4105, then the 09:00 UTC surge around Waller's speech ran through Monday's 1.41365 prior high to a 1.4140 session high, matching the channel top flagged in the digest. Rejection there has pulled price back to the 50% fib at 1.4123, a touch under ema20 and above ema50 at 1.4121, with RSI(14) cooled from 70 to 51.
Support: 1.41228, 1.41212, 1.41131
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.41401
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 13:15) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) at 5.5 pips understates the likely release range
M15 close back above the 1.41365 prior high reopens the 1.4140 session high
Failure to hold the 50% fib and ema50 near 1.4121 points back toward the 1.4113 surge base
11:01 UTC
Intraday up-leg, now pulling back · RSI 55 · price 1.41253
London sweep of Asian low, impulse to 1.4140, retracing.
London open swept below the Asian range to a 1.4105 london low, then the 09:00 UTC impulse, around Waller's speech, cleared the asian high and stalled at a 1.4140 session high, the channel top flagged in the digest. Rejection there has RSI(14) cooled from 70 to 54.5, and price is back at the ema20 between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that leg.
Support: 1.41248, 1.41211, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365, 1.4140
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema50 near 1.4121 puts the 61.8% fib and the 1.4105 london low back in play
Holding the ema20 and reclaiming the 1.4128 asian high returns focus to the 1.4137 prior high and 1.4140 session high
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ATR 5.5 pips likely to expand
10:46 UTC
Intraday upswing, stalling at range top · RSI 55 · price 1.41274
London broke the Asian range, rejected at 1.4140.
London first dipped below the 1.4114–1.4128 Asian range to a 1.41054 session low. The 09:00 UTC surge, during Waller's speech, then lifted price off a 1.4113 breakout base, through the prior high at 1.41365 and up to 1.4140. That is the descending-channel top flagged in the CAD digest, and the move met rejection there. The false break has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib near 1.4127, with RSI cooling from 70 to 55, ATR expanding to 5.8 pips and ema20 at 1.41245 the nearest support.
Support: 1.41245, 1.41131, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.41401
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4140 channel top invalidates the rejection read
Failure to hold ema20 at 1.41245 opens the 1.4113 breakout base, then the 1.41054 session low
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at channel top · RSI 64 · price 1.41325
London broke above the Asian range, printed a higher high at 1.4140, now pulling back.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.41283 on the 09:00 UTC impulse, which coincided with Waller's scheduled speech, then took out yesterday's NY prior high at 1.41365. The move tagged 1.4140, the descending channel top flagged in the CAD digest, and met rejection there. RSI(14) has cooled from 70.3 to 64.1, ATR(14) has expanded to 5.6 pips from about 3.8, and price holds above the ema20 at 1.41241.
Support: 1.41283, 1.41241, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.41401
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.41283 asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Holding above the ema20 at 1.41241 keeps the London higher-low sequence intact; the 50% fib of the London leg sits near 1.4123
An M15 close above the 1.4140 channel top extends the move beyond yesterday's prior high
Loss of the 1.41054 London session low negates the session's advance
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h, core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; BoC Summary of Deliberations follows at 18:30 UTC
London swept the Asian low, then reversed through the Asian high and prior NY high.
A 20-pip impulse followed Waller's remarks at 09:00 UTC. It came off the 1.4105 London low, which had swept below the Asian range, and carried price through the 1.4128 Asian high and yesterday's 1.4137 prior high into the 1.4140 channel top. RSI(14) is overbought at 70.3, ATR has expanded to 5.7 pips from 3.8, and EMA20 has crossed above EMA50.
Support: 1.41365, 1.41283, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4140 channel top would turn the push above the 1.4137 prior high into a false break
M15 close above 1.4140 opens the 1.4150 round number
Close back below the 1.4128 Asian high, and a break of the rising support from the London low, unwinds the London breakout
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
London-open sweep of the Asian low, then a breakout above the Asian range into yesterday's high.
London opened with a dip below the Asian range to the 1.41054 london low. Price then broke out above the 1.41283 asian high on a 20-pip bar at 09:00 UTC, as Fed's Waller was speaking. The move tagged 1.41395, just through yesterday's 1.41365 prior high and shy of the 1.4140 channel top, and price now sits back just under that prior high with RSI(14) at 68.6 and ATR expanding to 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.41283, 1.41211, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.4140
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) can materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC
A M15 close above the 1.4140 channel top extends the breakout beyond yesterday's highs
Holding below the 1.41365 prior high risks a false break; a return under the 1.41283 asian high puts the 50–61.8% fib retracement near 1.4122–1.4118 and the ema20 in play
Loss of the 1.41054 london low would negate the session's higher-low structure
Asian range broken higher after London sweep of its low.
London open swept the Asian low to the 1.4105 london low, then reversed sharply. The bounce ran into Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks and broke through the 1.4128 Asian high. Price now presses yesterday's 1.4136 prior high, just under the 1.4140 channel top, with RSI(14) at 67, ATR expanding to 5.7 pips and price above both the ema20 (1.4119) and ema50.
Support: 1.41283, 1.41194, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.4140
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4140 channel top would challenge the descending-channel read
Rejection at the 1.4136 prior high and a slip back below the 1.4128 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4119 puts the 1.4105 london low back in focus
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h45m) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the London low · RSI 64 · price 1.41303
Higher low after London sweep, breakout above Asian range.
London open swept below the Asian range to a london low of 1.41054. The 09:00 UTC bar then lifted about 20 pips through the asian high at 1.41283 to a session high of 1.41336, in the same bar as Fed's Waller remarks. ATR(14) expanded to 5.7 pips and RSI(14) sits at 63.7, with price above both EMAs and just under the monday high cluster at 1.41365, while the 1.4140 channel top caps overhead.
Support: 1.41283, 1.41178, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41336, 1.41365, 1.4140
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.41365 monday high and the 1.4140 channel top would break the cap of the last two sessions
Rejection at the session high, followed by a close back below the 1.41283 asian high, turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 1.41178, near the 50% of the london leg fib, exposes the higher low line and then the 1.41054 london low
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
London dip below Asian low reversed; breakout above Asian high.
London dipped below the Asian low to a 1.4105 session low, then the 09:00 UTC bar spiked 20+ pips through the Asian high at 1.4128 as Waller's scheduled remarks hit. Price now sits just under Monday's NY prior high at 1.4137 (tested three times). RSI(14) is at 65 and ATR is expanding to 5.7 pips, with price above both EMAs, though the ema20 at 1.4117 is still fractionally below the EMA50.
Support: 1.41283, 1.41165, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41365, 1.4140
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4128 turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.4137 prior high exposes the 1.4140 channel top
Loss of rising support from the 1.4105 session low reopens the ema20 at 1.4117
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline m/m f/c 0.3%, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read; BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC
09:01 UTC
Sideways drift, closed bars below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 1.41201
London swept the Asian low, reclaimed it and printed a higher low.
London open swept the Asian low at 1.4111 to a session low at 1.4105 before reclaiming it. A higher low at 1.4110 followed, and the forming 09:00 UTC bar is pressing 1.4120, near the 50% fib of the overnight decline from the 1.4136 prior high, with oil-led CAD weakness keeping the pair anchored above 1.41. Closed bars remain below the ema20 (1.4115) and ema50 (1.4117), RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and ATR(14) has widened to 4.5 pips from 3.7.
Support: 1.41095, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4128 Asian high reclaims the range top and opens the 1.4136 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4110 higher low reopens the 1.4105 session low
Fed's Waller speaking at 09:00 UTC, the current bar, could materially shift this read
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (MoM f/c 0.3%) is the main volatility risk for this range
Lower highs off Asian high; London open swept the Asian low and recovered.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4128 Asian high. The London open swept the Asian low to a 1.4105 London low before buyers stepped in, but the rebound stalled at the 1.4118 London high. Price is now 1.4112, below the ema20 (1.4115) and ema50 (1.4117), with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR(14) widening to 4.6 pips from 3.7, while oil-driven CAD weakness keeps the pair pinned near 1.4120 into US CPI.
Support: 1.41054, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41151, 1.41177, 1.41283
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the London range either way
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (MoM f/c 0.3%, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4118 London high reopens the 1.4128 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4105 London low exposes 1.4100 and the prior low at 1.4077, near the 1.4073 pre-NFP area
Holding below the ema20 at 1.4115 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Asian range 1.4111–1.4128; London false break below, back inside.
London open made a false break below the asian low at 1.4111, tagging the london low at 1.4105 before price reclaimed the range. It now sits just under the ema50 at 1.4117, with RSI(14) back to 50 and ATR at 4.4 pips. The pre-CPI chop is capped by a lower-highs line from the 1.4128 asian high, with CAD weighed by oil near its lows since August.
Support: 1.4111, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.4117, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, within 30 minutes, could break the current chop
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main risk to this range read
M15 close back below the asian low at 1.4111 reopens the london low at 1.4105
Close above the ema50 and the lower-highs line puts the asian high at 1.4128 back in play, with the prior high at 1.4137 above
Rebound stalling near the 50–61.8% fib of the asian high to london low drop keeps lower highs intact
Tight Asian range 1.4111–1.4128; London false break below the low reclaimed.
USDCAD is holding the 1.4111–1.4128 Asian range under yesterday's 1.4137 prior high. The London open dipped to a 1.4105 London low and was reclaimed, a false break of the Asian low. Price sits just under the EMA20 (1.41155) and the ema50 at 1.4117, RSI(14) has recovered to 48.6 from 35 and ATR(14) is 4.4 pips as desks stay sidelined into US CPI, with soft oil keeping CAD heavy.
Support: 1.41111, 1.41054
Resistance: 1.4117, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4117 ema50 and the lower-high line from the Asian high reopens the 1.4128 Asian high, then the 1.4137 prior high
A close back below the 1.4111 Asian low negates the false break
Failure to hold the 1.4105 London low exposes the 1.4073/1.4050 pre-NFP area
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4128 Asian high; London open swept the overnight floor.
London open swept below the overnight 1.4111 floor to a 1.4105 london low, near the 50% rally retracement of Monday's 1.4077–1.4137 leg, and price has recovered to 1.4110, still below ema20 (1.4116) and ema50 (1.4117). Lower highs since the 1.4128 asian high keep a lid on the tape as USD/CAD idles into US CPI. RSI(14) is at 42.8, up from 35, and ATR is 4.2 pips.
Support: 1.41054, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41155, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4105 london low turns the sweep into a breakdown toward the 1.4077 prior low
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.4116 and the lower-highs line puts the 1.4128 asian high back in play; the 1.4137 prior high sits above
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC is the first event risk to this range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 35 · price 1.41083
London open broke the Asian range low; lower highs since the 1.4136 top.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.4111 and printed a london low at 1.4105. Price is pinned below the ema20 at 1.4116 with RSI(14) at 35, in line with the CAD digest's read of USD/CAD flat around 1.4110–1.4120 ahead of US CPI. Lower highs from the 1.4136 top and the 1.4128 asia high keep the trendline intact.
Support: 1.41054, 1.4100, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41111, 1.41159, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4111 asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4105 london low exposes the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4097 swing low
Close above the 1.4128 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~74 min) could shift this read
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the session's main volatility risk
07:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early London · RSI 35 · price 1.4107
Lower highs through Asia; London open broke the Asian range low.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.4114 and printed a london low at 1.4105. Price sits below a flattening EMA20 (1.4117) and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 35.4 and ATR(14) at 4.2 pips, up from 3.7. The move extends the fade from Monday's 1.4137 NY high, with lower highs capping Asia from the 1.4128 Asian high, as the market waits for US CPI.
Support: 1.41054, 1.4100, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41137, 1.41167, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4114 marks the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4100 round number exposes Monday's 1.4097 swing low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4117 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A move back above the 1.4128 asian high negates the intraday downtrend
07:16 UTC
Range, drifting to the lower edge · RSI 39 · price 1.41105
1.4111–1.4128 range since late NY, lower Asian highs.
London open pressed USDCAD into 1.4111, the range low that has held since late NY, with price below a flat EMA20/50 and RSI(14) at 39. Highs have stepped lower from the 1.4128 Asian high along a lower-highs line. ATR(14) has compressed to 4 pips as the pair holds above the 50% retracement of Monday's rally into US CPI.
Support: 1.41111, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41177, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4111 range low opens the 1.4100 round number, near the 61.8% of Monday's rally
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.4118 and a break of the lower-highs line restores the range toward the 1.4128 Asian high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London opens with USD/CAD at 1.4114, pressing the 1.4111 Asian low after lower highs overnight kept price under the flat ema20/50 at 1.4118. That floor sits on the 38.2% fib of Monday's 1.4077–1.4137 rally. ATR(14) has compressed from 5.1 to 3.9 pips as the pair waits on US CPI.
Support: 1.41111, 1.4107, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41183, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4111 Asian low exposes the 50% fib of Monday's rally at 1.4107, then the 1.4100 round number
A break of the lower highs line and a close above the ema20/50 at 1.4118 reopen the 1.4128 Asian high
The Monday high at 1.4137 caps the window; a close above it would end the consolidation read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range with lower highs, below flat EMAs.
Monday's NY rally stalled at 1.41365 and faded to the 1.41111 overnight low, with weak oil keeping CAD heavy. The 15-pip Asian range (1.41137 asian low to 1.41283 asian high) is printing lower highs into the London open. Price sits just under the flat ema20 and ema50 near 1.41185, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.8 pips as the pair waits on US CPI.
Support: 1.41137, 1.41111, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41185, 1.41213, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41213 lower high and the Asian lower-highs line opens a retest of the 1.41283 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.41137 asian low and the 1.41111 overnight low exposes the 1.4100 round number, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range early
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main catalyst for a range break
Asian range 1.4111–1.4128 holding above the 38.2% of Monday's rally.
Monday's 1.4078–1.4137 rally gave back ground in late NY. Late Asia session is now capped by the 1.4128 Asian high, with the Asian low at 1.4111 and the 06:15 UTC swing low at 1.4114 holding near the 38.2% rally fib. Price is pinned just under flat, converged EMAs, ATR(14) has compressed to 3.9 pips and RSI(14) at 49 is neutral, the tape waiting on US CPI as oil weakness keeps CAD soft.
Support: 1.4114, 1.4111
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4111 asian low breaks the rally fib 38.2% hold and the Asian range
M15 close above the 1.4128 asian high exposes the 1.4137 prior high from Monday's NY session
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could jolt the compressed Asian range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways, easing lower in late Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.41149
Asian range low marginally broken, lower highs since 1.41283.
Monday's oil-led NY rally to 1.41365 has given back half its gains. The 06:00 UTC bar has now closed just under the 1.41155 Asian low, with price below a flat ema20 at 1.41187, RSI at 42.3 and ATR compressed to 3.8 pips ahead of London open. Lower highs from the 1.41283 Asian high cap the tape, and the next swing low at 1.41111 sits on the 61.8% fib of that rally.
Support: 1.41111, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41155, 1.41187, 1.41283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.41155 asian low and ema20 at 1.41187 turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.41111 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.4100 round number
A break of the lower-highs line from the 1.41283 asian high reopens the top of the range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; oil and Iran headlines remain the CAD driver
06:02 UTC
Flat after Monday's rally, range compressing · RSI 49 · price 1.41173
Tight 1.4116–1.4128 range with lower highs since 00:30 UTC; price pinned at flat EMAs.
Monday's London-NY rally from 1.4077 to the 1.4137 NY high came as crude slid on US-Iran deal bets. Since then the pair has held above the 38.2% fib, and late Asia is boxed between the 1.4116 range low and lower highs under the 1.4128 Asia high. Price sits just under the flat ema20/ema50 near 1.4119, and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41155, 1.41111, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.41191, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.41155 range low exposes the 1.41111 swing low, with the 50% fib at 1.4107 below
Close above the Asia lower-highs line and the 1.41283 Asia high reopens the 1.41365 NY high
Close back above the ema20 at 1.41191 eases the lower-highs read inside the range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; BoC deliberations follow at 18:30 UTC
Lower highs into a flat ~1.4115 floor inside the Asian range.
Late Asia session: USD/CAD is coiling inside the 1.4111–1.4128 Asian range. A descending trendline of lower highs is pressing into a flat range floor near 1.4115, just above the 38.2% fib of Monday's 1.4077–1.4137 oil-driven rally. RSI(14) near 51, ATR(14) about 3 pips and price straddling the EMAs all point to compression ahead of London and US CPI.
Support: 1.41155, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4111 asian low exits the Asian range and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4107
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.4128 asian high reopens Monday's 1.4137 prior high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is CAD-side risk later today; further oil weakness keeps CAD heavy
Monday's NY rally, driven by oil-led CAD weakness, stalled in a double top at 1.4136 and faded to a 1.4111 swing low near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg. Late in the Asia session, price has printed lower highs under the trendline from the 1.4128 Asian high and is pressing the 1.4115 Asian low, with ATR(14) only about 3.4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.41155, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4115 Asian low, then the 1.4111 swing low, breaks the Asian range and the 38.2% fib
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline, near 1.4120, ends the Asian compression and puts the 1.4128 Asian high back in play
Supply at the 1.4136 double top caps the move unless cleared
Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC; US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is a CAD-side risk
Asian range 1.4116–1.4128 with lower highs, lows holding.
Monday's NY leg from 1.4077 to 1.4136 came as oil slid and CAD weakened. It was capped twice at the 1.4136 prior high in a double top. The pullback held the 1.4111 swing low, just under the 38.2% rally fib. Asia has carved a 1.4116–1.4128 range with lower highs and price pinned to EMA20. ATR is near 3.4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41155, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4116 asian low exposes the 1.4111 swing low and the 50% rally fib near 1.4107
M15 close above the asian lower highs line (~1.4124) and the 1.4128 asian high reopens the 1.4136 prior high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and any oil/US-Iran headlines are CAD-side risk
05:02 UTC
Range after NY rally, drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 1.41162
Tight Asian range with lower highs pressing the floor.
USDCAD still holds most of Monday's NY rally off 1.4077 on the oil-led CAD slide, but rejection at the 1.4136 NY high has left price inside a 1.4111–1.4128 Asian range. Lower highs since the 1.4128 Asian high, the latest at 1.4121, are pressing the 1.4115 Asian floor, which sits just above the 38.2% fib of the NY rally. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is around 3.4 pips, so the range is compressed ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41155, 1.41111, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41214, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4111 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4100 round number
Close above the 1.4121 lower high and the descending trendline would put the 1.4128 Asian high back in play
A break of the 1.4136 NY high would invalidate the range read
Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fresh US-Iran or crude headlines are the main CAD driver into London
04:46 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.41185
Late-Asia compression: lower highs over a flat 1.4116 floor.
Monday's oil-driven NY rally from 1.4077 topped at the 1.4137 NY high. Late in the Asia session, USDCAD is compressing inside a 1.4111–1.4128 Asian range under a line of lower highs, with the 1.4116 range floor tested three times. The pullback has held above the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally near 1.4114, and RSI(14) is neutral at about 48.
Support: 1.41165, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4116 range floor and the 1.4111 Asian low would break the compression and expose the NY rally fib 50% near 1.4107
A close above the lower-highs line and the 1.4128 Asian high reopens the 1.4137 NY high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver
04:31 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, compressing · RSI 54 · price 1.41208
Asian range 1.4116–1.4128, lower highs into the asian low.
Late Asia session, USD/CAD is boxed in a 1.4116–1.4128 Asian range. It sits on EMA20 and is pressing a line of Asia lower highs, while the asian low at 1.4116 has held three times. The pullback from Monday's ny high at 1.4137 is shallow, holding above the 38.2% of the NY rally fib from 1.4077 that was fuelled by oil-driven CAD weakness.
Support: 1.41164, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4116 opens the late-ny low at 1.4111 and the deeper NY rally fib retracement
Close above the Asia lower highs line and the asian high at 1.4128 puts the ny high at 1.4137 back in view
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~4.5h) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could break the Asian range; BoC Deliberations at 18:30 UTC
04:16 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, highs fading · RSI 45 · price 1.41191
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.4116 Asian floor.
Late Asia session: USDCAD is compressing under a run of lower highs off the 1.4128 Asian high, while the 1.4116 Asian low holds as the floor. Price sits just above the 38.2% retrace of Monday's oil-driven NY rally from the 1.4077 London low to the 1.4136 NY high. RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 4 pips point to a quiet tape before London.
Support: 1.41164, 1.41111, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41247, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4116 Asian low exposes the 1.4111 NY low and the 38.2% fib
Close above the lower highs line and the 1.4128 Asian high reopens the 1.4136 NY high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh US-Iran deal headlines hitting crude remain the main CAD driver
04:02 UTC
Sideways after NY rally stalled · RSI 45 · price 1.41192
Tight Asian range 1.4116–1.4128 with lower highs inside.
Monday's NY rally from 1.4077 to the 1.4137 ny high came on oil-led CAD weakness. Its pullback held at the 1.4111 late ny low, near the 38.2% fib. Late Asia is compressing between the 1.4116 asian low and 1.4128 asian high, with highs stepping lower; RSI(14) is near 45 and price sits just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.41164, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4116 asian low exposes the 1.4111 late ny low and the 38.2% fib
Break of the asian lower highs trendline and a close above the 1.4128 asian high reopen the 1.4137 ny high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~5h) could break the Asian range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia range 1.4111–1.4128 with lower highs, floor at 1.4116.
Monday's oil-driven NY rally ran from the 1.4077 london low to the 1.4137 ny high. Price has since slipped below the 23.6% fib of that move and is pressing the asian low at 1.4116, with Asian highs stepping lower from 1.4128. RSI(14) is near 40, ATR is about 4.4 pips, and price trades below both EMAs.
Support: 1.41165, 1.41111, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4116 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.4111 swing low, with the 38.2% fib of the NY rally at 1.4114
Close above 1.4125 breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 1.4128 asian high back in play; the 1.4137 ny high caps above
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~5h) could jolt the London session range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC are the larger risks to this read
Asian range 1.4111–1.4128, lower highs on a flat floor.
Monday's oil-driven CAD selloff lifted the pair from 1.4077 to the 1.4137 prior high. Price has since eased back toward the 38.2% retracement near 1.4114. Mid-Asia session, price is coiling inside the 1.4111 asian low to 1.4128 asian high, with lower highs pressing on a flat 1.4116 range floor, and RSI(14) near 41 sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.41165, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4116 range floor and 1.4111 asian low breaks the Asian range lower and the 38.2% retracement
Close above the Asia lower highs trendline and the 1.4128 asian high reopens the 1.4137 prior high
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and oil/US-Iran headlines remain the CAD-side swing factors
03:16 UTC
Range after NY double top, highs compressing · RSI 48 · price 1.41183
Asian range 1.4116–1.4128 with lower highs; NY low 1.4111 holding below.
A double top at the 1.4136 NY high gave way in late NY. The slide stalled at the 1.4111 NY low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg, while oil-led CAD softness kept the dip shallow. Asia has since held a 1.4116–1.4128 range, with lower highs pressing price back toward the Asian low.
Support: 1.4116, 1.4111
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4128, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4116 Asian low exposes the 1.4111 NY low and 38.2% fib
Close above the lower-high trendline near 1.4125 reopens the 1.4128 Asian high and the 1.4136 NY high
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is the CAD-side event risk
03:02 UTC
Intraday range after NY rally faded · RSI 49 · price 1.41186
Tight Asian range 1.4116–1.4128 with lower highs, holding above 38.2% fib.
Monday's oil-driven CAD selling lifted the pair from the 1.4078 london low to a 1.4137 ny high, where three bars stalled before a late-NY rejection. The Asia session is boxed between the 1.4116 asian low and the 1.4128 asian high, with lower highs pressing price toward the 38.2% fib near 1.4114 and the 1.4111 overnight low. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR is under 5 pips.
Support: 1.4116, 1.4111, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4116 asian low and the 1.4111 overnight low breaks the 38.2% fib and exposes the 50% near 1.4107.
A close above the asian lower highs line and the 1.4128 asian high puts the 1.4137 ny high back in play.
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, near London open, could break the Asian range.
US CPI at 13:30 UTC and the BoC Deliberations at 18:30 UTC can override the current range read.
A fresh drop in crude on US-Iran headlines has been weighing on CAD independently of the USD.
02:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing after NY pullback · RSI 55 · price 1.41222
Asian range 1.4116–1.4128, lower highs vs higher lows.
The NY high at 1.4136 capped price twice before a slide to the 1.4111 NY low. The Asia session is now coiling between the 1.4116 asia low and the 1.4128 asia high, with lower highs and rising lows tightening around 1.4122. CAD is still heavy on oil at lows not seen since August, which keeps the pair pinned near 1.4120, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and price sitting just above both EMAs.
Support: 1.41164, 1.41111, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4128 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4136 ny high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4116 asia low exposes the 1.4111 ny low, then the 1.4100 round number
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could resolve the compression
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and any fresh US-Iran oil headlines could shift the CAD side of the read
02:31 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 1.41183
Tight Asian range 1.4116–1.4128, lower high at 1.4127.
Monday's NY session reversed the London slide from 1.4077 to a 1.4137 NY high as oil's slide weighed on CAD, then price eased into a tight Asian range. Price is back near the 1.4116 asian low, with the 1.4111 session low sitting just under the 38.2% fib of the NY rally; the asian high at 1.4128 has already capped two pushes.
Support: 1.41164, 1.41111
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4111 session low breaks the Asian range and the 38.2% fib of the NY rally
M15 close above the 1.4128 asian high reopens the 1.4137 ny high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh US-Iran or crude headlines are the main CAD driver in this range
02:16 UTC
Range after NY rally, mild lower highs in Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.41181
Asia range 1.4116–1.4128, holding above 38.2% of NY rally.
The NY rally off the 1.4077 prior low topped at the 1.4136 NY high as oil's slide to lows since August weighed on CAD. Price has since pulled back toward the 38.2% of the NY rally fib near 1.4114. Mid-Asia session is ranging 1.4116–1.4128 with lower highs, and price sits on the Asian low, just under EMA20/50.
Support: 1.41164, 1.41111, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4116 Asian low and 1.4111 swing low breaks the Asia range and exposes the 50% NY rally fib near 1.4107
Close above the 1.4128 Asian high breaks the lower highs and reopens the 1.4136 NY high
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; crude and US-Iran headlines remain the CAD driver
02:03 UTC
Recovered from London low, now ranging below NY high · RSI 55 · price 1.4123
Double top at 1.4136, Asia range with a higher low.
Monday's London selloff to the 1.4077 london low reversed in NY as oil slid to August lows. The rally capped at a 1.4136 double top, and the late-NY pullback held the 1.4109 swing low near the 50% fib. Asia is building a 1.4116–1.4128 range off a higher low, with price sitting on its EMAs.
Support: 1.4116, 1.4109, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4128 asian high puts the 1.4136 double top back in play
Loss of the 1.4116 asian low breaks the Asia higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.4109 swing low
Break of 1.4109 opens the path toward the 1.4077 london low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; crude and US-Iran headlines remain the CAD driver
01:31 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs below NY high · RSI 46 · price 1.41169
Asian range 1.4109–1.4128 after double top at 1.4136.
Monday's NY rally off the 1.4077 london low, driven by falling crude weighing on CAD, stalled in a double top at the 1.4136 ny high, and early Asia is ranging 1.4109–1.4128. The 00:00 UTC pop to the 1.4128 asian high was rejected, leaving lower highs, with price just above the 38.2% fib of the 1.4077–1.4136 leg and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.41094, 1.41066, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41279, 1.41362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4109 asian low breaks the range and exposes the fib 50% at 1.4107 and 61.8% near 1.4100
M15 close above the 1.4128 asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.4136 ny high
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Range after NY rally, lower high in Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.41186
1.4109–1.4128 intraday range under the 1.4136 NY high; Asia making a lower high.
With falling crude weighing on CAD, the NY rally off the 1.4077 london low topped at the 1.4136 ny high. The late-NY pullback held above the 38.2% fib of that rally, and the rollover low sits at 1.4109. Early Asia rejected the 1.4128 asian high, a lower high, and price is back at the 1.4118 asian low, just under EMA20.
Support: 1.41182, 1.41094, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41279, 1.41362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4109 rollover low breaks the range and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4107, then the london low at 1.4077
Reclaim of the 1.4128 asian high above the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4136 ny high
Waller at 09:00 UTC, US CPI at 13:30 UTC and the BoC deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Pullback from session highs, now stabilising · RSI 55 · price 1.41228
Double top at 1.4136, early Asia range 1.4109–1.4128.
Monday's NY rally from the 1.4077 monday low stalled in a double top at 1.4136, with falling crude lifting the pair even as the dollar softened. The late-NY pullback held at the 1.4109 asia low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the rally, and early Asia is rotating inside a 1.4109–1.4128 range with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.41094, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41279, 1.41362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4128 asia high puts the 1.4136 double top back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4109 asia low opens the 50% fib near 1.4107 and then the 1.4077 monday low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC is the first scheduled risk for this range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC and BoC deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher low in place · RSI 61 · price 1.41277
Asia bounce reclaimed late-NY range top; price inside 1.4124–1.4136 band below day high.
USD/CAD reversed the London low at 1.4077 during NY hours as falling crude weighed on CAD, capping three times at the 1.4136 day high. The evening pullback held the 1.4109 late low between the 38.2% and 50% retracement, and early Asia has pushed back above the 1.4118 range top with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.41182, 1.41094, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41362, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 day high opens the 1.4150 psych level
Slip back below the 1.4118 range top returns price to the late-NY range; loss of the 1.4109 late low undercuts the higher-low read
Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; BoC deliberations 18:30 UTC add CAD-side risk
A break of the 1.4077 london low would fully unwind Monday's NY rally
Price reversed from the 1.4077 London low to a 1.4136 NY high as falling crude weighed on CAD. That high was rejected three times, and the late-NY pullback held the 1.4109 swing low inside the 38.2–50% fib of the move. Early Asia has lifted price back above the 1.4124 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4124, 1.4109, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 ny high breaks the session range to the upside
Loss of the 1.4124 pullback low returns price to mid-range; a break of the 1.4109 swing low exposes the 1.4077 london low
Waller 09:00 UTC, US CPI 13:30 UTC and BoC deliberations 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher low in early Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.41264
NY rally retraced to 38.2%, early Asia holding a higher low inside 1.4109–1.4136.
London's slide to 1.4077 reversed into a NY rally to 1.4136 as falling crude weighed on CAD. The late-NY pullback held near the 1.4114 fib 38.2, and early Asia has printed a higher low at 1.4109 and is pressing back to 1.4126, still capped below the NY high.
Support: 1.4114, 1.4109, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4136 ny high reopens the NY rally toward the 1.4150 round number
Close back below the 1.4109 asian low breaks the higher-low structure and exposes the 1.4077 london low
Waller 09:00 UTC, US CPI 13:30 UTC and BoC deliberations 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read