USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 10 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:03 UTC
Range-bound, rolling toward support · RSI 40 · price 1.41342
Lower highs since 1.4248 peak, pressing range base.
USDCAD has held its multi-week 1.4130-1.4250 band, with a string of lower highs since the 1.4248 peak dragging price back to the range floor after June's CAD jobs beat firmed the Loonie. Price now trades below both EMAs and RSI sits sub-40 as momentum leans lower into the range base. A firm 1.4130 pivot is the pressure point, with 1.4250 capping any recovery.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4130 confirms a range break, opening 1.4075
Reclaim of 1.4200 neutralises the rollover and keeps the range intact
BoC rate decision Jul 15 is the dominant near-term catalyst for this read
17:03 UTC
Range, rolling over toward base · RSI 40 · price 1.41342
Lower highs since 1.4248, testing range base.
USDCAD has been boxed in a 1.4130-1.4248 range for the past two weeks, and price is now grinding into the range base after a series of lower highs off the 1.4248 top. The pullback stalls right at the 38.2% retrace of the 1.3950-1.4248 impulse, with a firmer CAD (June jobs beat 18.2K, wages 3.7%) leaning on the pair while soft oil caps the downside. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI is soft near 40, consistent with the rollover.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4130 confirms a range break, opening 1.4075
Reclaim of 1.4190 negates the rollover and keeps the range intact
BoC hold/guidance Jul 15 13:45 UTC is the dominant CAD catalyst and could reset this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 43 · price 1.41577
Lower highs below 1.4247 swing peak.
The advance off the early-window 1.3954 low stalled near 1.4247 and price has since carved a rounded top, printing lower highs into 1.4225 and now grinding on range support around 1.4150 — the level the digest flags as fair value. Price sits below both the EMA20 and EMA50 while ATR(14) near 22 pips reflects a compressed, rangebound regime rather than a trending one. The solid CAD jobs beat added marginal support, but soft oil is capping the Loonie.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4135, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4225, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4135 confirms a lower-low and opens channel base near 1.4110
Reclaim of 1.4200 negates the rolling-over read
US CPI Jul 14 and BoC decision Jul 15 could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Topping, rolling over · RSI 41 · price 1.41577
Lower highs below 1.4250 cap.
USDCAD carved a double top around 1.4250 and has since ground out lower highs, with price now testing the 1.4135–1.4150 support base after slipping below both EMA20 and EMA50. The CAD jobs beat (18.2K vs 10K) has supported the Loonie at the margin, but soft oil keeps the pair rangebound in the 1.4135–1.4250 band flagged near fair value. ATR is mid-regime, so the move is a controlled roll-over rather than an impulsive breakdown.
Support: 1.4135, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4135 confirms a lower low and opens the range base
Reclaim of 1.4250 negates the double-top read
BoC decision Jul 15 13:45 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this pair
09:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 44 · price 1.41632
Range near lows after failed push.
The uptrend from early-month lows stalled below the 1.42476 range cap and price has since traced a rounded top, drifting into a range between that ceiling and the 1.4110 range low. Momentum has faded — both EMAs now cap price and RSI sits in the low 40s — with the recent slide to a 1.4135 swing low marking a lower low. USD trades at a 3-week trough as the oil-led disinflation trade weighs, keeping the Loonie firm into next week's US CPI.
Support: 1.41356, 1.4110, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4187, 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4110 range low confirms a range break lower toward 1.4075
Reclaim of 1.4187 prior high puts the 1.42476 range cap back in play
US CPI Jul 14 and BoC Jul 15 are the dominant catalysts that could reset this read
09:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 44 · price 1.41632
Lower highs below 1.4248 double top.
The mid-June rally into 1.4248 has stalled and price is rolling over, carving lower highs below a double top with matched peaks near 1.4247. Trade is now pinned under the EMA20 around 1.4185, testing the 1.4135 swing-low shelf as USD sits at a 3-week low with oil-led disinflation trimming Fed premium. ATR(14) near 30 pips reflects a steady, un-compressed grind rather than an impulsive leg.
Support: 1.4135, 1.4110, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4135 confirms a lower low toward 1.4110
Reclaim of the 1.4185 ema20 negates the rollover read
CAD jobs 12:30 UTC today and US CPI Tue could reset this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 1.41482
Multi-week range, lower highs pressing the floor.
The June rally from the 1.3950 area stalled below the 1.42476 range top and price has since carved a rounded top with successive lower highs. It is now pressing the 1.4150 range low, with the last bar dipping to a 1.41356 swing low as CAD stays firm ahead of the jobs print. ATR is moderate and price sits below both EMAs, marking loss of the prior uptrend momentum.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41356, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Canada jobs at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.4150 confirms a range break toward 1.4110 support
Reclaim above 1.4200 psych needed to negate the lower-high structure
The multi-week advance off 1.3954 has stalled into a double top around 1.4245, with price now carving lower highs and slipping back under 1.4200 and both EMAs. The Loonie has been a mild weekly outperformer as an overbought USD stretches near fair value, and the retreat toward 1.4135 leaves the structure rolling over. ATR(14) has cooled, but a HIGH-impact Canada jobs print at 12:30 UTC sits directly ahead.
Support: 1.4135, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4245
What it said to watch
Canada jobs today 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.4135 confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4200 negates the rolling-over read
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the week's key risk
01:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 45 · price 1.41711
Lower highs since 1.4247 peak, range-bound.
The early-month rally from the 1.3950 base topped out at the 1.4247 swing high and has since rolled over into a series of lower highs, with price now consolidating around 1.4170 near stated fair value. Price sits below both EMA20 (~1.4185) and EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed as the range tightens between the 1.4150 swing low and the 1.4200 round number. Supply capped repeatedly into the 1.4240s while demand has held the 1.4150 area.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4110
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200, 1.4247
What it said to watch
Canada jobs Fri Jul 10 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
H4 close below 1.4150 opens the path toward the 1.4110 channel base
Reclaim of 1.4200 round number would challenge the lower-high sequence
01:02 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging · RSI 44 · price 1.41711
Range with lower highs since early July.
The advance from 1.3970 topped out at the 1.4247 range ceiling and has since flattened into a multi-day consolidation between 1.4150 and 1.4247, with a sequence of lower highs capping since the early-July peak. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 near 1.4171, and ATR(14) compression points to a coiling range rather than trend extension. CAD has failed to capitalise on a four-year-high trade surplus, leaving USD/CAD pinned near fair value as it waits on the next catalyst.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4110, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4238, 1.4247
What it said to watch
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC (Net Change f/c +10K, UR 6.6%) is the primary catalyst for the range
H4 close below 1.4150 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.4110 channel base
H4 close above 1.4182 EMA then 1.4247 range top negates the lower-high sequence