19:03 UTC
Range-bound, no clear macro trend · RSI 58 · price 1.39794
Sideways range, price upper half.
USDCAD has been range-bound between roughly 1.3480 and 1.4140 since the Q2-2025 break down from the 1.4790 macro high; price now sits in the upper half after recovering off the January low. EMA(50) on W1 is flat and price holds just above it, confirming a balance regime rather than a trend. The grind back toward 1.40 has come alongside a softer CAD on a dovish-leaning BoC hold and firm US data, with the 1.4140 congestion the recurring upside cap.
Support: 1.3680, 1.3565, 1.3480
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4140, 1.4790
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above 1.4140 range cap would open the path back toward the 1.4790 macro high
- Failure to hold 1.3680 swing low reopens the 1.3480 yearly low
- FOMC and BoC repricing are the macro catalysts that could break the range