USDCAD ground to a fresh week/YTD high near 1.4023 into Friday's NY session, supported by hot US PPI and softer Oil weighing on CAD, before stalling under the 1.40 round number. The new week opened lower with a gap, and the slide back to 1.3956 has pushed price under EMA20 with RSI cooling toward 42. The pullback is holding around the 50% retracement of the 1.3899-1.4023 advance.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3929, 1.3899
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.3988 prior high re-engages the 1.40-1.4023 resistance band
Failure to hold 1.3956 session low opens the 1.3929 swing low
Retail Sales then FOMC (Jun 17) are the week's pivotal USD catalysts and could reset this read
USDCAD climbed from Wednesday's BoC-hold dip near 1.3900 to fresh highs at 1.4023 into Friday's session, supported by the hot US PPI print reinforcing higher-for-longer pricing. The weekend gap opened lower and price has slipped back to the 50% retracement near 1.3960, now trading below EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling toward 42. The 1.40 round level and 1.4023 week high capped the advance and remain the band to watch.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3920, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.3956 opens the 1.3920 swing low and 1.3900 weekly low
H1 close back above 1.3988 re-engages the 1.40 resistance band
Retail Sales and FOMC mid-week are the pivotal USD catalysts that could reshape this read
USDCAD climbed from Wednesday's 1.38989 weekly low to fresh YTD highs at 1.40235 as the hot US PPI print and softer Oil sapped the Loonie, but the advance stalled below the 1.40000 round number into the back half of the week. The new week opened with a gap lower to 1.39558, dropping price back through EMA20 and EMA50 and parking it right on the 50% retracement of that impulse. RSI(14) has cooled to the low 40s, reflecting the loss of upside momentum.
Support: 1.39558, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.39558 confirms a lower low after the weekend gap
Reclaim of 1.39880 congestion reopens the 1.40000 round number
Retail Sales and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 1.39595
Higher highs into 1.4024, now retracing.
USDCAD rallied from sub-1.3900 lows to a 1.4024 week high on hot US PPI and softer oil, then rolled over with supply capping the 1.40 round number. The weekend reopen gapped lower and price has slid to the 50% retrace of that impulse near 1.3960, now sitting below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI back to 40. Demand stepped in at 1.3956 to hold the first test.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39186, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3980 re-opens the path to 1.40 and the week high
Loss of 1.3956 exposes the 1.39186 swing low
Retail Sales (Jun 17 12:30 GMT) and FOMC later that day are the week's pivotal USD catalysts
USD/CAD pushed to a fresh YTD high near 1.4024 into the NY session midweek as hot US PPI and soft oil weighed on the Loonie, then rejected the 1.40 handle and pulled back to 1.3953. Price has since consolidated in the upper half of the week's range, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) hovering mid-50s. The 1.40 round number caps the rebound while demand has stepped in around 1.3953.
Support: 1.3953, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4024 week high opens the path toward the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3953 swing low exposes the 1.39 weekly low
FOMC and US Retail Sales Jun 17 could materially shift this read
Fresh YTD high then pullback, consolidating below 1.40.
USDCAD ground higher all week, peaking at 1.4023 during the NY session as hot US PPI reinforced higher-for-longer Fed pricing and soft oil weighed on CAD. The 1.40 handle rejected that push and price has since consolidated 1.3953–1.3990, holding above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI cycling in the mid-50s. Structure stays constructive while the rising sequence of higher lows since the 1.3899 base holds.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.4023 reopens the path into the 1.40–1.41 congestion band
Loss of 1.3953 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes 1.3900
FOMC and US Retail Sales Wed Jun 17 are the week's pivotal catalysts and could reset this read