Since Monday's open USDCAD has carved higher lows off 1.3950 and is grinding back toward the 1.40 psych ceiling, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling mid-50s to low-60s. The weekend US-Iran deal and the oil slide kept a lid on CAD's recovery while a softer USD has capped the upside, leaving price pinned in the 1.39–1.40 congestion. The week high at 1.4023 remains the unbroken cap.
Support: 1.3931, 1.3980, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4002 opens the path to the 1.4023 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3931 pivot reopens the 1.3900 weekly low
US Retail Sales and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD spiked to a 1.4024 weekly high midweek then pulled back, with supply capping the 1.40 round number on the retest into the NY session. Price has since carved higher lows and is grinding back toward 1.40 on thin Sunday-open flow, holding above EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.40 congestion remains the dominant ceiling after the US-Iran deal sank oil but a softer USD offset further CAD downside.
Support: 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4024
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 reopens the 1.4024 weekly high
Loss of 1.3931 pivot breaks the higher-low sequence toward 1.3900 weekly low
US Retail Sales + FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Range-bound below 1.40 · RSI 57 · price 1.39881
Ranging 1.3955-1.4023, mid-upper.
USD/CAD has chopped in a 1.3955-1.4023 band this week after the 1.40 ceiling rejected a push to 1.4023. A weekend gap lower into Monday's open found demand at 1.3955 and price has since recovered toward the top of the range, holding above EMA(20) with RSI near 57. Softer USD on the US-Iran oil-driven slide and a dovish-leaning BoC have left the pair pinned just below the 1.40 psych level.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 / 1.40235 needed to extend the prior impulse
Failure to hold 1.39558 opens the path to the 1.3931 pivot
FOMC Wed (dot plot, 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Ranging under the 1.40 ceiling after the week high.
USDCAD ran to a week high at 1.40235 mid-week before the US-Iran ceasefire and sub-$80 WTI softened the dollar, dragging the pair back into a 1.3955–1.3990 range. Price has since ground back toward the 1.40 psych ceiling, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s. The 1.40 round number has capped this leg, with demand stepping in around the 1.3955 session low.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3955, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 week high opens the path back into the 1.40–1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3931 pivot exposes the 1.3900 area
FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) and Retail Sales could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Recovery off week low, momentum easing into 1.40 · RSI 58 · price 1.39893
Ranging below 1.40, higher lows since Monday.
USDCAD opened Monday with a slip to 1.39558 then ground back up through the London and NY sessions, with price now pressing the 1.40 round number after holding above EMA20/EMA50 all week. The geopolitical relief that crushed oil capped CAD even as a softer USD trims the rally, leaving the pair coiled in a 1.3955–1.3994 range. RSI(14) is cycling mid-50s on each push, consistent with a grind rather than an impulse.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 opens the path toward the 1.40235 prior high
Failure to hold 1.39558 confirms a lower low and reopens the swing low at 1.39501
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales is the dominant catalyst that could break the range
USDCAD spiked to 1.40235 mid-week before being rejected at the 1.40 psych level, and has since chopped sideways in a 1.395–1.399 band. The US-Iran ceasefire and the oil slide have left the pair pinned near YTD highs — a soft-CAD, soft-USD standoff that has kept price grinding just above the EMA(20). RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s reflects the lack of directional follow-through into the FOMC week.
Support: 1.39501, 1.39154
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39501 confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
USDCAD has spent this week pinned in a 1.3950–1.4023 band, with the mid-week push to the 1.40235 wk high rejected and price slipping back below the 1.40 psych level. It has held above EMA20 since Monday's session open as oil weakness keeps the pair bid into the range top. RSI is cycling in the upper-50s with no divergence into the consolidation.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40000 psych opens path to the 1.40235 wk high
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this range
Loss of 1.39500 swing low exposes the 1.39300 pivot
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into 1.40 cap · RSI 61 · price 1.39929
Higher lows since Friday, capped under 1.40.
USDCAD recovered off Friday's 1.3900 area and has ground higher through this week's sessions, with the pair now back probing the 1.40 handle after an earlier rejection at the 1.40235 week high. The US-Iran ceasefire and slumping oil have left CAD pinned near YTD lows while a softer USD caps follow-through, leaving price coiling just under the psych level. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s and price holds above both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4002 opens the path back to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.3950 reopens the 1.3931 pivot and 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Range, mild upward drift · RSI 58 · price 1.39847
Consolidation under 1.40 after weekend gap-down recovery.
USDCAD opened the week with a gap-down to 1.3950, then clawed back through the London-NY sessions to trade near 1.3985, holding above EMA(20). The pair remains pinned beneath the 1.40 ceiling that capped two attempts last week, with the US-Iran ceasefire and softer oil leaving CAD on the back foot while an overbought USD pauses sub-1.40. Price is now near the top of this week's 1.3950–1.3992 range.
Support: 1.3966, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Loss of 1.39501 confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's recovery
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC + Retail Sales are the dominant USD catalysts and could reshape this read
Consolidation under 1.4000 after rejection from 1.4023.
USDCAD ran into 1.4023 last week then rejected, with the US-Iran ceasefire and the ~4% oil slide leaving a two-sided backdrop for the pair. Since the weekend gap it has consolidated in a 1.3955-1.3990 band, grinding back above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s. The 1.4000 psych level continues to cap and 1.3955 has contained the downside this week.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant USD catalyst and could break this range
Sustained H1 close above 1.4000 reopens the 1.4023 week high
Failure to hold 1.3955 exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
WTI follow-through after the Hormuz deal remains the key CAD driver
USDCAD pushed to a fresh week high near 1.40235 midweek before the US-Iran ceasefire cooled safe-haven USD demand, fading the pair back under the 1.40 psych ceiling. Price has since rebuilt above EMA20 and EMA50, grinding in a 1.3955–1.4002 range with RSI cycling near 56. The 1.40 round number has capped progress, while oil weakness keeps a floor under the move.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.40235, 1.4025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4002 reopens the 1.40235 week high and 1.4025 barrier
Loss of 1.3955 swing low exposes the 1.3931 pivot
FOMC and US Retail Sales Wed Jun 17 could materially reset this read
After tagging the week high near 1.40235 mid-week, USD/CAD reset through the weekend gap and has been grinding higher off the 1.39501 weekend low, sitting above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) into the NY session. The US-Iran ceasefire that softened the dollar and sank oil leaves a two-way backdrop, keeping the pair capped below the 1.40 ceiling. RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s reflects the lack of a clean impulse since Friday.
Support: 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.39922, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC + dots Wed 18:00 UTC is the week's main risk and could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.40000 reopens the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39501 weekend low exposes the 1.39310 pivot
Consolidation under week high after rejection at 1.4023.
USDCAD climbed off Monday's 1.392 area to probe the 1.40 ceiling into Thursday's NY session, where the 1.4023 week high capped the advance and price was rejected back toward 1.3955. The pair has since consolidated 1.396–1.399, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling through the mid-50s. Soft oil and a faded safe-haven USD bid after the US-Iran ceasefire have kept the 1.40 round-number resistance intact.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the 1.4023 week high
Loss of 1.39558 gap low exposes the 1.3931 pivot
FOMC + US Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
USD/CAD pushed to a 1.40235 week high before the 1.40 round number capped progress; the pair has since consolidated 1.395–1.398 as a softer USD on the US-Iran ceasefire meets weak oil pinning CAD. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s, keeping the broader bid intact but momentum flat into midweek. Two-way risk dominates ahead of the main event.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39500 swing low exposes the 1.39000 weekly low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC plus Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Range, capped under 1.40 · RSI 57 · price 1.39856
Consolidation below week high after rejection.
USDCAD spiked to 1.40235 earlier this week before rejecting back under the 1.40 round number, and has since consolidated roughly 1.3955–1.3990 with the dollar soft at 10-day lows as the US-Iran Hormuz deal drained haven demand. Price sits just above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the mid-50s; the 1.40 psych level has capped every attempt this week. Monday's open near 1.3985 was sold to 1.39558 before buyers stepped back in.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3931, 1.3915
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC plus Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.39558 swing low confirms a lower-low toward the 1.39310 pivot
16:01 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 58 · price 1.39856
Consolidation under 1.40 after rally and pullback.
USDCAD spiked to a week high at 1.40235 mid-week before fading, then opened with a weekend gap-down to 1.39558 and has since clawed back above EMA20/50 toward the 1.3990–1.4000 ceiling. The 1.40 zone has capped this week as soft US data and the US-Iran deal pressure the dollar, while weak oil keeps CAD heavy — leaving the pair pinned in a 1.395–1.402 range. RSI(14) cycling near 58 reflects the grind higher off the gap low rather than fresh impulse.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39501, 1.39263
Resistance: 1.39922, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.40000 opens the path back to 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39558 gap low exposes 1.39501 range low
Consolidation under week high after rejection at 1.40.
USDCAD spiked to the 1.40235 week high mid-window before the US-Iran Hormuz deal cooled the safe-haven USD bid, dragging the pair back into a 1.395–1.399 range. Monday's session opened on a gap lower, sold to the 1.39500 session low, then recovered to sit just above EMA20 with RSI cycling near 53. The 1.40000 psych level and 1.40235 week high have capped each attempt — price is coiling beneath them.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3937
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the 1.40235 week high
Loss of the 1.39500 session low confirms a lower low
FOMC + US Retail Sales mid-week (Wed) could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Range below 1.40 ceiling · RSI 53 · price 1.39779
Consolidation under weekly high after rejection.
USDCAD pushed into the 1.40 ceiling midweek and was rejected at 1.40235 before unwinding back toward 1.3970, with the US-Iran Hormuz deal softening the USD and weak oil capping any CAD recovery. Price has since coiled in a 1.3950–1.3990 range, holding just above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s. The weekly high at 1.40235 and the round 1.40 level remain the dominant overhead barrier.
Support: 1.39501, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39922, 1.40003, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.40003 opens the 1.40–1.41 congestion toward 1.40235
Failure to hold 1.39501 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3931 pivot
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC + Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has churned in a 1.3950–1.4000 band this week after stalling at the 1.40235 weekly high; the US-Iran Hormuz deal drained the safe-haven USD bid and pulled the pair off 1.40, while weak oil capped CAD's recovery. Price holds just above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) hovering near the mid-50s and no clear directional impulse into the NY session. The 1.40 round number remains the ceiling, with rejection seen on the prior push to the week high.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 reopens the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.3950 session low exposes the 1.3931 pivot
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidation under 1.40 after rejection at 1.4023.
USDCAD probed the 1.40 ceiling midweek, tagging 1.4023 before sellers stepped in as the US-Iran Hormuz deal drained the safe-haven USD bid; price slid back to the 1.3970s and has coiled there since. Holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) which are clustered around 1.3970, with RSI(14) cycling near the midline — no directional conviction inside the 1.3950–1.4023 range. The weekly low at 1.3899 and round 1.40 mark the boundaries traders are watching.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3899
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4023 reopens the path toward the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Loss of 1.3950 range floor exposes 1.3931 pivot and the 1.3899 weekly low
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Retail Sales 12:30 UTC same day
USDCAD pushed to YTD highs near 1.4023 midweek before the Iran ceasefire and oil slide drained the safe-haven USD bid, dragging the pair back to consolidate around 1.3975. Price sits on EMA20 but just under EMA50, with RSI(14) cycling near 50 after the overbought stretch into the high. The 1.3950 swing low has held as a floor while 1.4000 caps the recovery attempts.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 reopens the 1.4023 week high
Failure to hold 1.3950 swing low confirms a lower-low toward 1.3931
FOMC + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Range, capped sub-1.40 · RSI 53 · price 1.39746
Consolidation under week high, higher lows building.
USDCAD pushed to a fresh week high near 1.4024 midweek as soft oil and a dovish BoC hold weighed on CAD, then handed back the move and has consolidated sub-1.40 since. Price is hugging EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s, and the 1.40 handle has repeatedly capped attempts. Higher lows off the 1.3899 impulse low keep the structure constructive while above 1.3950.
Support: 1.3950, 1.39154, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 reopens the path to the 1.4024 week high
Loss of 1.3950 swing low confirms a lower-low and softens the range read
FOMC decision + dots Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil direction post-Hormuz deal remains the primary CAD driver
USDCAD spiked to a 1.40235 week high mid-window before sellers rejected the 1.40 round level, and the pair has since coiled in a tight range as the US-Iran de-escalation drained the safe-haven USD bid while softer oil capped CAD. Monday's session opened with a gap down to 1.39558, but price has reclaimed EMA(20) and drifted back toward 1.398 with RSI(14) holding mid-range. The 1.40 handle remains the dominant ceiling; the 1.3950 area continues to absorb dips.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.40005, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40005 reopens the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39558 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3931 support band
FOMC dots/Retail Sales Wed (12:30 & 18:00 UTC) is the key catalyst that can break this range
USDCAD pushed to fresh YTD highs near 1.4023 earlier in the week before the US-Iran de-escalation sapped USD haven demand, capping the pair sub-1.40; soft oil kept CAD from capitalising. Price has since coiled in a 1.3955–1.3996 range, drifting back above the H1 EMAs into the NY session with RSI cycling around the mid-50s. Two attempts at the 1.40023 prior high have been rejected this week.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.39956, 1.40023, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40023 reopens the 1.4023 week high and 1.40-1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.39558 exposes the 1.3950 gap low and 1.3931 desk support
FOMC dots and US Retail Sales (Wed 12:30/18:00 UTC) are the key catalysts that could break this range
11:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from week high · RSI 47 · price 1.39695
Lower highs since 1.4023 peak, consolidating sub-1.40.
USDCAD ran to a 1.4023 week high mid-window before sellers rejected the 1.40 congestion ceiling, with the US-Iran deal draining the safe-haven USD bid even as soft oil capped CAD relief. A weekend gap dropped Monday's open from 1.398 to 1.39558 and price has since coiled around 1.397, slipping back below EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) sits near 47 after cycling off the prior overbought stretch.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.40000 reclaims the rejected congestion ceiling
Failure to hold 1.39558 monday low confirms a lower-low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales are the dominant USD catalysts this week
11:01 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging · RSI 47 · price 1.39695
Consolidation below 1.3988, holding 1.3955 floor.
USDCAD rallied to a 1.40235 week high mid-window before stalling sub-1.40 as the US-Iran deal sapped safe-haven USD demand. Price has since drifted into a 1.3955–1.3988 range, sitting just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling near 46. A small weekend gap lower was filled and demand stepped in twice around 1.3955.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3953
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC plus Retail Sales 12:30 is the week's dominant USD catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close above 1.3988 reopens the 1.4000/1.40235 area
Failure to hold 1.3955 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3931 support band
Rangebound below 1.40 ceiling, lower highs since the high.
USDCAD pushed to fresh weekly highs near 1.40235 midweek before fading back under the 1.40 round number as the USD softened on the Iran peace-deal de-escalation. Monday's reopen gapped lower toward 1.3950 then recovered into the NY session, leaving price coiling around EMA(20) with RSI(14) hovering near 47. The 1.40 ceiling has capped attempts twice this week and remains the pivot.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 weekly high
Failure to hold 1.39500 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC dots and Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD has spent the week congesting under the 1.40 ceiling after Tuesday's NY push to 1.40235 was rejected, with the pair slipping back toward the EMA20 as the post-Iran-deal USD softness and falling oil offset one another. Monday opened with a gap down to 1.39558 before buyers reclaimed the 1.3970 area; RSI sits mid-range near 51. The 1.40 round number remains the dominant cap into the week.
Support: 1.39501, 1.3933, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39501 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC dots Wed 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/CAD climbed through the week to tag the 1.40 round number near 1.4024 in Thursday's NY session before easing back, with the US-Iran Hormuz deal and softer oil keeping a two-way tug on the Loonie. A weekend gap opened lower at 1.3955 and price has since recovered to chop around EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 1.3974, RSI(14) flat near 52. The 1.40 ceiling remains the dominant cap — area to watch for renewed rejection or a break.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39501, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39501 swing low confirms a lower low
FOMC projections Wed 18:00 UTC are the week's pivot for USD
Oil direction post-Hormuz deal remains the primary CAD driver
09:02 UTC
Range near YTD highs, capped by 1.40 · RSI 53 · price 1.39742
Consolidation under 1.40 ceiling.
USDCAD spent the week pinned in the 1.39–1.4023 band, with the 1.40 ceiling capping the Wednesday push to the 1.40235 week high before the pair drifted back. Monday's session opened with a gap lower to 1.3955 as the USD softened on the fading Iran risk premium and weaker oil, but buyers recovered the bid back toward 1.3975. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI mid-range, leaving the pair coiled inside this-week's congestion.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39550 session low exposes the 1.39000 weekly low
FOMC projections Wed 18:00 UTC are the week's pivot and could reset this read
USDCAD pushed to YTD highs near 1.4023 mid-week on soft oil and the hot US PPI print, then drifted into a 1.396–1.399 consolidation as the rally stalled below the 1.40 psych level. Monday opened with a gap lower to 1.3956 before recovering back to 1.3977, keeping price just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s. The 1.40 handle has capped each attempt this week.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 reopens the 1.4023 week high
Loss of 1.3950 swing low exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground to YTD highs near 1.40 last week on soft oil and a hot US PPI print, but the 1.40235 area capped the move and price has since rotated lower. Monday gapped to the 1.39500 weekly low before buyers lifted it back toward EMA20 around 1.3977, leaving RSI mid-range after the cooldown. The 1.40 psych level remains the pivot for this week's swing structure.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3916
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39500 weekly low confirms a lower-low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD rallied to YTD highs at 1.40235 mid-week before stalling at the 1.40 psych level, then gapped lower into this week's open near 1.39847 and slid to a session low around 1.39500 before recovering to 1.39726. Price is now consolidating around the H1 EMAs with RSI(14) mid-range, sitting near the 38.2–50% retracement of the prior up-impulse. The 1.40 round number capped the advance and remains the upside marker into Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3915
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC and Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
Close back above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Loss of 1.39500 session low exposes the 1.39150 swing low
Pullback from YTD highs, consolidating below 1.40.
USDCAD pushed to YTD highs near 1.4023 mid-week on soft oil and a firm dollar, then faded with the 1.40 psych level capping the rally. Price has since consolidated in a 1.3955–1.3990 band, trading just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) hovering mid-range around 47. The week reopened with a gap-down to 1.3955 that buyers recovered, leaving structure intact above the 1.3900 weekly low.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4000 reopens the 1.4023 ytd high
Failure to hold 1.3955 week low exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC Wed (Retail Sales 12:30, decision 18:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 41 · price 1.39596
Retrace into 50% of week's impulse.
USDCAD pushed to YTD highs near 1.4024 mid-week as soft oil and hot US PPI weighed on CAD against a firm USD. Price has since faded back to the 50% retrace of that impulse around 1.396, slipping below EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling toward 40. The 1.4000 psych level and 1.4024 high capped the advance; 1.3950 is the first support being tested on the pullback.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.3950 opens the path to the 1.3900 weekly low
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.3980 would re-engage the uptrend
Wed Retail Sales + FOMC (Warsh debut) could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 45 · price 1.39596
Rally to YTD highs, now correcting under EMA20.
USDCAD pushed to YTD highs near 1.40235 mid-week on soft oil and hot US PPI, but the 1.40 psych area capped the move and price has since faded. A weekend gap opened lower and the pair now trades around 1.3960, below EMA20, with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-40s. The week's 1.39500 swing low is the nearest floor with the 1.3900 weekly low beneath.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.40 psych reopens the path to the 1.40235 ytd high
Failure to hold 1.39500 swing low exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC and US Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD rallied to YTD highs near 1.40235 mid-week on hot US PPI and soft oil, then was rejected at the 1.4000 figure and has drifted lower since. Monday's session opened with a gap down to 1.3956 and price is now consolidating around 1.3960, back below the H1 EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the mid-40s. The 0.618 retrace of this week's impulse sits at ~1.3957, where demand has so far held.
Support: 1.3955, 1.39154, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235, 1.3974
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.3955 exposes the 1.39154 swing low
Wed Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC/Warsh (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
USD/CAD ran to YTD highs near 1.4023 mid-week on softer oil and the hot US PPI print, then faded back under 1.40 with the 1.3990 prior high now capping. After the weekend gap lower, price has been confined to a 1.3956–1.3976 band, with RSI cycling in the mid-40s and price slipping below EMA20. The pullback is holding the 50% retracement of the week's impulse around 1.3961.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3961, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.3990 reopens the 1.40 psych and weekly high
Failure to hold 1.3956 session low exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
Wed Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 1.39663
Pullback from YTD highs, holding above mid-week base.
USDCAD pushed to YTD highs at 1.40235 earlier this week on soft oil and a hot US PPI print, then faded after a rejection at the 1.40 area. Monday opened with a gap lower to 1.39558 and price is now consolidating below EMA20 near the 50% retracement of the prior impulse. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s, reflecting the loss of upside momentum.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39154, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC Wednesday (18:00 UTC) with Warsh's dots is the binary driver and could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.39558 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.39150 swing low
Reclaim of 1.3980 and EMA20 needed to re-engage the 1.40 area
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 43 · price 1.39663
Retracement after push to YTD highs.
USDCAD ran to YTD highs near 1.40235 midweek as soft oil and hot US PPI pressured the Loonie, with the 1.40 psych level rejecting two attempts. Price has since faded, gapping lower into this week's reopen and now sitting near the 50% retracement of that impulse around 1.3960, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) has cooled into the low 40s as the pullback unwinds the overbought stretch.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hold of 1.3940 weekly open keeps the higher-low structure intact
Reclaim of 1.4000 reopens the path to 1.40235 week high
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the binary risk for this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 1.39686
Lower highs since YTD peak, pullback.
USDCAD pushed to YTD highs near 1.4024 midweek on soft oil and hot US PPI, but has since faded into a sequence of lower highs. Monday's session opened with a drop to the 1.3956 area before price stabilised back around the EMA20, with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-40s after the peak. Supply at the prior 1.3989 high is capping for now while the broader weekly advance holds.
Support: 1.39558, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.39894, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the swing factor and could materially shift this read
Close back above 1.3989 reopens the 1.4000-1.4024 zone
Failure to hold 1.3956 confirms a deeper retrace of the week's rally
03:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling after ytd high · RSI 46 · price 1.39688
Lower high off 1.4023, holding above 1.3956.
USDCAD ran to fresh YTD highs at 1.4023 into Friday's NY session on hot US PPI and soft oil, then rejected and faded. A weekend gap saw Monday's Asia open slip to 1.3956 before a recovery back toward 1.3969, leaving price under EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s and the pair mid-way through its prior impulse.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3915, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4023
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3989 prior high reopens the 1.4023 week high
Failure to hold 1.3956 session low exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to fresh YTD highs near 1.40235 midweek on hot US PPI and a slide in oil, then was rejected at the figure and has been consolidating since. The weekend reopen gapped softer near 1.398 and dipped to 1.39558 before recovering, leaving price pinned just below EMA20 but holding above EMA50. RSI has cooled back to the midline as the 1.40 cap holds.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39154
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 ytd high
Failure to hold 1.39558 session low confirms a lower low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ran to YTD highs at 1.40235 mid-week on soft oil and a hot US PPI print, with the patient BoC offering CAD no support, before fading back under the 1.40000 round number. The weekend reopen gapped lower to 1.39558 and has since recovered toward 1.39725, leaving price below EMA(20) but holding above EMA(50). RSI(14) has cooled into the mid-40s, reflecting the stalled push at 1.40.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3953, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39885, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 week high
H1 close below 1.39530 swing low confirms a lower-low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend stalled, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 1.39725
Rally to YTD highs then consolidation below 1.40.
USDCAD ground up to fresh YTD highs near 1.40235 mid-week on hot US PPI and softer oil, then was rejected at the 1.40 round number and rolled back. A small weekend gap down at this week's open dropped price into the 1.3955–1.3960 zone before buyers recovered it toward 1.3972; price now sits below EMA(20) but holding above EMA(50). RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s, easing the earlier stretched condition.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3947, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.39881, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.39881 reopens the 1.40 resistance band
Failure to hold 1.39558 exposes the 1.3947 swing low
FOMC and US Retail Sales (Wed) are the week's dominant USD catalysts
USDCAD ground higher all week to a fresh YTD high at 1.40235 on the back of hot US PPI and a patient BoC, before rolling over and rejecting the 1.4000 round-number congestion. Price has since slipped back under EMA20 and is consolidating near 1.3972, with the weekend session low at 1.39558 the immediate floor and the 1.3900 weekly low the deeper pivot. RSI has cooled into the high-40s as the impulse stalls.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant USD catalyst and could reshape this read
Close above 1.40000 reopens the path to the 1.40235 weekly high
Failure to hold the 1.39558 session low exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
USDCAD ground to fresh YTD highs near 1.4023 mid-week as soft oil and a hot US PPI print weighed on the Loonie, but the move has rolled over into lower highs since. This week opened weaker and slid through the 1.3990 prior-high cluster to test the 1.3956 session low, leaving price back below EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling toward 40. The 1.40 psych level capped the advance and remains the area to watch above.
Support: 1.39558, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.39558 session low exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
H1 close back above 1.39890 prior high re-engages the 1.40 psych level
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) plus US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground to fresh YTD highs at 1.4023 through the week as a patient BoC hold, soft oil and hot US PPI stacked against the Loonie, but the move stalled and faded back below EMA(20). The weekend reopen gapped lower into 1.39558 before stabilising near 1.3962, leaving price beneath both EMAs with RSI(14) cooling to the low-40s. The 1.39881 prior high now caps the topside while the 1.39558 session low marks the immediate pivot.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39154, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.39881, 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.39881 reopens the 1.40 / 1.4023 highs
Loss of 1.39558 confirms a lower low toward 1.3915 week low
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) and Retail Sales could materially shift this read