USDCAD has run a multi-week uptrend since the early-April low near 1.3550, holding above a rising EMA(50) and printing fresh YTD highs around the 1.40 ceiling. The recent high at 1.4024 has been rejected, with the last three sessions stalling and closing back near 1.3960 as soft oil and a dovish BoC keep CAD heavy but an overbought daily reading caps follow-through. Wednesday's FOMC and dot plot is the dominant catalyst into next week.
Support: 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4140
What it said to watch
Daily close above 1.4024 (recent high) opens the path to 1.4140
Failure to hold the 1.3900 weekly low confirms a lower-low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended higher since the early-April low near 1.355, stacking higher highs and holding above a rising EMA(50) on D1; the latest leg printed fresh year highs at 1.40235 before settling back to 1.3961. The advance is fed by weak oil post-Hormuz reopening and a neutral-to-dovish BoC hold, keeping CAD soft as the pair tests the 1.40–1.4025 congestion. RSI sits in the low-60s — firm but not yet stretched into overbought.
Support: 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4025, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst for this read
A sustained daily close above 1.4025 extends the breakout
Failure to hold 1.3931 then 1.3900 would mark the first lower-low of the run