USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 16 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling near range top · RSI 49 · price 1.39927
Consolidation below 1.4020 YTD high.
USDCAD is grinding sideways near 7-month highs, holding above EMA50 after a fourth up-day this week as soft oil and a firm USD into the Fed kept CAD on the back foot. The 1.40180/1.40235 zone has capped two pushes since the week's recovery off 1.39501, while pullbacks have found demand around 1.39800. RSI sits near 48, neutral, with price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3955, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40180 opens the 1.4030/1.4090 zone
Failure to hold 1.39800 puts the 1.39501 week low back in play
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can reset this read
USDCAD has ground higher all week on the oil slide and US-Iran peace headlines weighing on CAD, posting a series of higher lows from the 1.39558 week low up to the 1.40162 range top. The advance has stalled: two pushes into 1.40162/1.40235 were rejected and price is now consolidating around the EMA20 near 1.399, with RSI mid-range. Demand has stepped in repeatedly around 1.39797, keeping the rising-low structure intact below the range top.
Support: 1.39797, 1.39558, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.39797 breaks the rising-low structure, exposing the 1.39558 week low
FOMC Wed is the week's dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
Consolidation under 1.40 after this-week grind higher.
USDCAD spent the week grinding up to a 1.40235 high then settled into a tight 1.398–1.402 consolidation under the round number, with a small weekend gap on the Monday open. Soft oil on the US-Iran framework kept CAD on the back foot while the dollar held firm into the FOMC. RSI(14) has cooled back to neutral near 48 as price hugs EMA20.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 week high opens the path toward the 1.4090 congestion
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 GMT could materially reset this range
Failure to hold 1.3950 swing low exposes the 1.3900 psych level
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's open on soft oil and a USD bid into the FOMC, printing a fourth straight up-day and tagging the 1.4020/1.4023 YTD high before stalling. Price now coils in the 1.3985–1.4018 zone with RSI(14) hovering near 52 and price sitting just under EMA(20) but holding above EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster; the 1.4020 ceiling has capped two NY-session attempts this week. Rejection at the highs keeps this a congestion read just below the 7-month peak.
Support: 1.39847, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 opens the 1.4090 path
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.39847 weekly open exposes 1.39501
Loss of 1.39310 confirms a deeper pullback
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near range top · RSI 52 · price 1.3994
Higher lows grinding into 1.4020 ceiling.
USDCAD has held a fourth straight up-day, grinding to ~7-month highs as a firmer USD and soft oil on US-Iran peace headlines kept CAD pressured. Price is consolidating just under the 1.4018/1.4023 ceiling after pullbacks repeatedly found the rising EMA(20); RSI(14) sits mid-range near 52, reflecting the slower drift rather than fresh impulse. The 1.3940 area has marked the base of this week's higher-low sequence.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4023
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4023 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC + US Retail Sales are the immediate cross-drivers
USDCAD has ground higher through the week, posting a fourth-to-fifth straight up-day as falling oil and a firm USD into the Fed kept the commodity-linked CAD heavy. The 1.4020 YTD high has capped the advance, with rejection from the 1.40 area this NY session pulling price back toward EMA20; RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s off the highs. Move sits on a rising sequence of higher lows from last week's 1.3950 base.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3931, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 ytd high opens the 1.4090 next zone
Failure to hold 1.3931 first marker breaks the rising base
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) then FOMC (18:00 UTC Wed) could materially reshape this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into range top · RSI 57 · price 1.39988
Higher lows, pressing YTD high.
A fourth straight up-day has USDCAD pinned to the 1.4000 round number with the week's 1.40235 high and the YTD/7-month ceiling at 1.4020 capping overhead — soft oil and a firm dollar into the Fed have kept CAD on the back foot. Pullbacks have held the rising EMA20 since the post-weekend reopen, with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s rather than stretching. Price sits right at the upper edge of this week's range, retesting 1.4000.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3931, 1.3985
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235, 1.4020
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term driver for this read
Hourly close above 1.4020 opens the path to the 1.4090 zone
Failure to hold 1.3940 would break the week's rising lows
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 57 · price 1.39988
Higher lows, consolidating under 1.40.
Fourth straight up-day with USDCAD grinding toward the 1.40 round number and the 1.4024 YTD high, holding above EMA20 as pullbacks find higher lows since Monday's open. The bid reflects a firm dollar into the FOMC and a soft-oil backdrop keeping CAD heavy. The 1.40 handle and the YTD high have so far capped the advance, leaving price coiling just beneath resistance.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4024
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4024 opens the path toward the 1.4090 zone
Failure to hold 1.3940 breaks the week's rising-low structure
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing into range top · RSI 47 · price 1.39911
Higher lows since Monday, congesting below 1.4020.
Fourth consecutive up-day grind, with USDCAD pressing the 1.4018/1.4020 YTD high after the US-Iran framework drained oil's risk premium and kept the commodity-linked CAD heavy. Two attempts at the range top this week have been capped, and the pull back to 1.3991 has price hovering just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s. Higher lows off the 1.3950 swing keep the broader structure pointed up.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3931, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4020
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC are the dominant catalysts and could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4020 ytd high opens the 1.4030/1.4090 zone
Loss of 1.3940 support breaks the rising sequence of higher lows
USDCAD has ground out a fourth straight up-week toward 7-month highs as the US-Iran framework crushed oil's premium and kept commodity-linked CAD heavy. Price tested the 1.40180 week high twice during NY hours before slipping back under the EMA20 to 1.39911, with RSI(14) cooling toward neutral. The 1.40180/1.40235 zone has capped the move and a higher-low base is holding off Monday's 1.39558.
Support: 1.3980, 1.39558
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close above 1.40235 confirms a break of the ytd high
Loss of 1.39800 swing low exposes 1.39558 week low
USDCAD has pressed 7-month highs this week, with the dominant push happening early in the window into the 1.4020/1.40235 ceiling before settling into a tight 1.398–1.401 range as soft oil keeps CAD heavy. The 1.4018 area has capped two attempts since, and price now sits just below the H1 EMA20 with RSI cycling near 47. FOMC tonight is the swing factor for the next leg.
Support: 1.39797, 1.3940, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path to 1.4030/1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 exposes the 1.3931 week low
USDCAD ground higher through the week to ~7-month highs near 1.4020, helped by a firm USD and soft oil after the US-Iran framework drained the geopolitical premium. Two attempts at the 1.4018-1.4023 range top have been capped and price has eased back below EMA20, with RSI(14) cooling toward the midline. Structure stays constructive while higher lows hold, but the 1.4020 ceiling remains intact.
Support: 1.3982, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3982 swing low exposes 1.3950 week low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC then FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling near range top · RSI 45 · price 1.39855
Consolidation under 1.4020 ceiling.
USDCAD has spent the week grinding into the 1.4020 YTD high, with three pushes capped there and price now rejected back toward 1.3985 into the NY session. RSI(14) has rolled off the mid-50s as the pair slipped below EMA(20), keeping it inside a tight 1.3940–1.4020 range. Soft oil from the US-Iran framework has underpinned the bid, but the FOMC decision Wednesday is the dominant catalyst.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3931, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4015
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4020 YTD high opens the path toward 1.4090
FOMC + US Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3940 support exposes the 1.3931 range low
USDCAD pressed the 1.4018 week high during NY hours before fading back below the EMA20 toward the session low at 1.3984, the first pullback after four up-days. The bid has been driven by soft oil on the US-Iran framework and a firm USD, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s as price retests this week's rising structure. FOMC tomorrow is the dominant catalyst overhanging the read.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4018, 1.4030
What it said to watch
FOMC rate decision + dot-plot Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
US Retail Sales Wed 12:30 UTC ahead of the Fed
Loss of 1.3950 week low confirms a deeper unwind of this week's advance
H1 close above 1.4018 reopens the path to the 1.4030 ytd high
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's open, a fourth straight up-leg as soft oil from the US-Iran framework and a firm USD pinned CAD near 7-month lows. The 1.4020/1.4023 zone has now capped two attempts this week, with a double-top rejection dragging price back below the EMA20 into the NY session. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s as the pullback finds the EMA50 around 1.3982.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3958, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4020, 1.4023
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 confirms a deeper pullback
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
USDCAD has spent the back half of the week pinned in 1.3990–1.4018 congestion just under the 1.4020 YTD high, with soft oil from the US-Iran framework keeping CAD heavy. The latest pullback off 1.4015 has slipped price back below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) easing toward 42. The 1.4018/1.4020 ceiling has now capped multiple attempts this week — an area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4020, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot-plot 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC are the dominant catalysts for this read
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3950 confirms a break of this week's rising support
USDCAD ground higher through the week toward the 1.4020 YTD area before the last two bars rejected from the 1.40150 session high and slipped back under EMA(20); a firm USD into Wednesday's FOMC and the continued oil slide kept CAD heavy. Price still holds above EMA(50) and the rising sequence of higher lows off the 1.39501 week base. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s as the pullback developed.
Support: 1.3984, 1.39558
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.40235 week high opens the path toward the Nov peak ~1.4150
Loss of the 1.39840 swing low threatens the higher-low sequence; 1.39558 week low is next
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Grinding under 7-month high, pullback in progress.
USDCAD has ground higher all week toward the 1.4020 ytd high, supported by a firm USD into the FOMC and a softer oil tape weighing on CAD. The latest NY session saw rejection from 1.4018 and a slip back below EMA20, with RSI(14) easing back to mid-40s. Price is now leaning on the 1.39844 day low while the week's higher-low structure stays intact.
Support: 1.39844, 1.39558, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.40180 opens the path toward the 1.40235 ytd high
Failure to hold 1.39844 exposes the 1.39558 swing low
Higher highs into 7-month high, consolidating below 1.4020.
USDCAD has graded higher all week, pressing a 7-month high near 1.40235 as the US-Iran deal crushed oil's geopolitical premium and left commodity-linked CAD lagging into Wednesday's FOMC. Price holds above EMA20 with pullbacks since the weekend gap finding support around 1.39918, but the 1.40180/1.40235 zone has capped the last two NY pushes and RSI has flattened in the mid-50s. Grind into resistance, not a fresh impulse.
Support: 1.39918, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dots Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term driver for this read
H1 close above 1.40235 (week high) opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.39918 swing low exposes the 1.39501 week low
An oil rebound would undercut the CAD-weakness driving this move
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 55 · price 1.40008
Higher lows, consolidating below YTD high.
USDCAD held a fourth straight up-week, climbing off the 1.39501 week low into the 1.4018 zone as soft oil on the US-Iran de-escalation kept the commodity-linked CAD pinned near 7-month lows. Price now consolidates around 1.4000, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s; the 1.4018/1.40235 ceiling has capped the advance into the NY session. Move into FOMC Wednesday with the YTD high the obvious overhead pivot.
Support: 1.39847, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the 1.4030/1.4090 congestion
FOMC decision + dots Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.39847 weekly open exposes the 1.39501 week low
Oil rebound on stalled US-Iran talks would re-bid CAD and pressure the uptrend
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, near 7-month highs · RSI 62 · price 1.40129
Higher highs, grinding into prior peak.
USDCAD has ground higher all week on oil weakness post US-Iran headlines, reclaiming the 1.4000 psych level and pressing back toward the 1.40235 week high. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the 55-65 band on each pullback finding support. The 1.40235/1.4030 ytd zone has capped the move so far this week.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39944, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4030
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 opens the 1.4030 ytd zone
Loss of 1.40000 psych exposes 1.39944 swing low
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC + dots Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil rebound would relieve CAD and pressure the pair lower
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 1.40129
Higher highs and higher lows, pressing week high.
USD/CAD has ground higher through the week on oil weakness, holding above EMA20 with each NY-session pullback finding support and printing fresh local highs into 1.4018. Price sits just under the 1.4018 week high and YTD/7-month resistance near 1.4023, with RSI(14) cycling in the 55–65 band. The FOMC decision later today is the immediate gate for the next leg.
Support: 1.3994, 1.39558, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4023 opens the path toward 1.4030/1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3994 threatens the higher-low sequence
Higher highs into 1.40, consolidating below YTD high.
USDCAD has ground higher all week, lifting off the 1.3899 swing low and tagging 1.4023 as softer oil and a higher-for-longer Fed narrative kept CAD on the back foot. Price is now coiling just below the 1.4020 YTD high and holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the upper 50s — momentum cooling but the up-trend structure intact. The pair is parked sub-1.40 ahead of Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.3997, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4025 opens the 1.40–1.41 congestion toward 1.4140
Loss of 1.3997 ema20 then 1.3931 would mark a lower low
FOMC decision and dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher all week off Monday's 1.3955 low, holding above EMA20 with pullbacks finding the rising higher-lows line. Price stalled at the 1.4018 wk high — just shy of the 1.4025 YTD high — and is consolidating around 1.4007 as oil weakness and a patient BoC keep CAD soft. The advance has cooled into the level, with RSI mid-range rather than extended.
Support: 1.3992, 1.3985, 1.3955
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4025 ytd high opens the 1.40–1.41 congestion toward 1.4140
Loss of the rising higher-lows line / 1.3992 swing low confirms momentum stall
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (dot plot, retail sales 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD has stair-stepped to a fourth straight up day, pressing the YTD high near 1.4020 as a firm USD and softer oil keep CAD on the back foot into Wednesday's FOMC. Price holds above EMA20 with pullbacks finding the rising line, but RSI(14) sits mid-50s and the last few NY-hour bars have stalled under 1.4016, leaving the week's high unbroken. Structure remains constructive while the 1.3985 EMA20 and higher-low line hold.
Support: 1.3985, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40235 opens the 1.40–1.41 congestion
Loss of 1.39501 swing low breaks the week's higher-low sequence
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 1.4020, now consolidating sub-1.40.
USDCAD pushed to fresh YTD highs near 1.4020 in a fourth straight up day, with softer oil and a hawkish-Fed bid keeping CAD on the back foot. Price has since stalled just below 1.40, holding above EMA20 while RSI(14) has cooled back toward the mid-50s after tagging overbought near the highs. The 1.40180/1.4020 zone has capped two attempts this week.
Support: 1.3995, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4020
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.4020 ytd high opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.3995 and the 1.39501 swing low confirms a deeper pullback
FOMC decision and dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC plus Retail Sales 12:30 UTC are the week's main catalysts
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing into YTD high · RSI 61 · price 1.40017
Higher highs/lows, consolidating below 1.4020.
USDCAD pushed to fresh YTD highs near 1.4020 over four up sessions, underpinned by softer oil and a higher-for-longer Fed narrative. Price holds above EMA20 but has stalled just under 1.4020 resistance through the NY session, with RSI(14) cycling near overbought as momentum slows into the level. The dip to 1.3950 mid-week was bought, leaving a series of higher lows intact.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4025 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Failure to hold EMA20 near 1.3990 exposes the 1.3950 swing low, then 1.3931
Fed decision and dot plot Wed could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 1.4020, consolidating below YTD high.
USDCAD has stacked four up days into the 1.40 handle, pressing toward the 1.4020 YTD high as soft oil and a higher-for-longer Fed keep the CAD pinned. Price is now coiling in a tight 1.4000–1.4018 band below resistance, with RSI(14) easing off into the mid-50s as the latest leg flattens. Pullbacks have held above the rising EMA(20), keeping the week's structure intact for now.
Support: 1.3985, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4016
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4020 opens the path toward the 1.40–1.41 congestion
Loss of 1.3985 EMA20 and a break of 1.3950 confirms a lower-low
US Retail Sales and FOMC Wednesday could materially shift this read
An oil bounce is the key CAD swing factor against this move
USDCAD has ground higher for a fourth straight session, pressing the 1.4020 YTD high as falling oil from the Iran-deal headlines kept CAD on the back foot. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the upper half, but the last few bars have flattened under 1.4020 — that level has capped the advance. Wednesday's FOMC dot plot is the next swing factor.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4025
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4025 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3950 puts 1.3931 back in play
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could reset this read
USD/CAD pushed to fresh YTD highs near 1.4018 during the NY session, extending a fourth straight up day on softer oil and a patient BoC. Momentum is fading, with price stalling sub-1.4020 and RSI(14) cooling off the highs as buyers held the 1.3990 area on pullbacks. The 1.4018-1.4025 zone has capped the advance — an area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.3990, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4025, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4025 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion toward 1.4140
Loss of 1.3990 risks a deeper pullback to the 1.39501 wk low
FOMC dot plot/SEP Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher off the 1.3950 base since the start of the week, holding above EMA20 with CAD pinned near seven-month lows as falling Oil and the US-Iran framework weigh on the Loonie. Price is now pressing the 1.40 round level and the 1.4018/1.4020 YTD-high congestion that capped two prior attempts. RSI(14) near 64 reflects a stretched but not exhausted advance into the ceiling.
Support: 1.3995, 1.39575, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40180 ytd high opens the 1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.39950 round level reopens the 1.39575 swing low
US Retail Sales and FOMC dot-plot this week could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's open, holding above EMA(20) with pullbacks finding support on the rising lows. Price is now testing the 1.4016 session high with the 1.4020 YTD high just above — CAD stays pressured by the soft oil leg following the US-Iran framework deal. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s, elevated but short of an extreme as the pair pins against the 1.40–1.41 congestion.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.4020
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path into the 1.40–1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3950 breaks the rising higher-low structure
FOMC Wed 18:00 GMT and US/Canada Retail Sales could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 1.40115
Higher highs and higher lows, breakout above 1.40.
USDCAD has ground steadily higher since the post-weekend low near 1.3950, with CAD pinned by soft oil after the US-Iran Hormuz deal collapsed the risk premium. Price cleared the 1.40 round number into the NY session and now presses the 1.4020 ytd high, with RSI(14) elevated near 64 but not yet stretched. Pullbacks through the week have held above the rising higher lows, keeping the channel intact.
Support: 1.3995, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4025
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4020 ytd high opens the path toward the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Failure to hold the 1.3995 swing low breaks the rising higher-lows sequence
US Retail Sales (Wed 12:30 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, retesting highs · RSI 64 · price 1.40115
Higher lows into range top.
After Monday's weekend gap open near 1.3985, USDCAD dipped to a 1.3950 swing low before grinding higher through the NY and Asia sessions back to the 1.40 handle, with pullbacks holding above the rising EMA20. Price is now retesting the 1.4020 YTD high that capped earlier in the week, with oil's slide on the US-Iran framework deal keeping CAD on the back foot. RSI is elevated near 64 but not yet at extremes.
Support: 1.3985, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4025 congestion opens the path toward 1.4140
Rejection at the 1.4020 ytd high and loss of 1.3950 swing low breaks the higher-low structure
US Retail Sales + FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, retesting prior peak.
USDCAD has ground higher through the week, breaking back above 1.40 to retest the 1.4024 YTD high as soft oil keeps CAD pinned near seven-month lows. RSI(14) is elevated near 68 with price holding above EMA20, and pullbacks have found higher lows around 1.3950. Wednesday's US Retail Sales and FOMC are the next catalysts into this congested 1.40–1.41 zone.
Support: 1.3993, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4024
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4024 opens fresh YTD highs toward 1.4060
Failure to hold 1.3950 breaks the rising higher-low sequence
FOMC + US Retail Sales Wed (12:30/18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 66 · price 1.40153
Higher lows since weekend gap, pressing 1.40 ceiling.
USDCAD has ground steadily higher since the weekend gap re-opened near 1.3985, posting higher lows through the Asia and London sessions and now testing the 1.4016 session high. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI(14) elevated near 66 into the 1.40-1.41 congestion; falling oil on the US-Iran headlines has kept CAD pinned even as the broader USD trades soft. The 1.4020 YTD high is the next overhead marker.
Support: 1.39984, 1.39789, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.4020, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4020 ytd high opens path toward the 1.40235 prior high
Failure to hold 1.3998 session low would break the run of higher lows
FOMC decision + dot-plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
WTI oil swings on Hormuz headlines remain the dominant CAD driver
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.40103
Higher lows into 1.40 ceiling.
USD/CAD has climbed back above 1.40 through the Asia session, building higher lows since the weekend gap with price holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50). Soft oil on the US-Iran de-escalation keeps CAD pinned near seven-month lows, lifting the pair toward the 1.4020 YTD high that capped the move earlier this week. RSI(14) is elevated near 66 as the 1.40-1.4024 congestion is retested.
Support: 1.3985, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4020, 1.4024
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4024 range top opens path higher
Failure to hold 1.3985 ema20 exposes 1.3950 swing low
US Retail Sales + FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD has graded higher through this week, breaking the 1.3995 ceiling on the latest push into the 1.40–1.41 congestion as soft Oil keeps CAD pinned near seven-month lows. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the 55–65 band on each pullback, and the 1.40235 week high now caps the move. The advance has been a slow grind rather than an impulse, with shallow dips finding demand around 1.3980.
Support: 1.3995, 1.39501, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the 1.41 congestion top
Failure to hold 1.39950 would break the run of higher lows
US Retail Sales and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground steadily higher since the Sunday open, recovering the gap-down dip to 1.3950 and pressing the 1.4000 psychological ceiling, with CAD pinned near seven-month lows as oil stays soft. RSI(14) is elevated as price stacks above EMA20 and EMA50, and the 1.40–1.4023 congestion that capped last week's run is back in play. Pullbacks have been shallow, finding demand into the rising EMA20.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 opens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.3950 breaks the week's rising structure
Canada Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) could shift the CAD read
Higher lows since weekend gap, capped at round number.
USDCAD has ground back to the 1.40 round number after gapping lower into the new week and recovering through London-NY hours, with price holding above EMA20 on every pullback. CAD stays pressured by softer oil on the US-Iran framework while a back-foot USD has so far only slowed, not reversed, the climb. The 1.40 handle and the 1.40235 weekly high are the immediate caps — area to watch for rejection or a clean break.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the 1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3950 confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC and FOMC dots Wed could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 61 · price 1.3995
Higher lows pressing the 1.40 ceiling.
USDCAD has ground steadily higher since Sunday's open, holding above EMA20 with each dip into the rising support line finding demand. The pair is now pressing the 1.4000 round number with the 1.4020 YTD high just above, the move underpinned by the oil collapse on the US-Iran Hormuz deal weighing on CAD. RSI cycling in the 55-62 zone reflects momentum that is firm but stretched into resistance.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4020
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4020 ytd high opens the path toward the 1.41 congestion
Loss of 1.3950 swing low breaks the rising support and the higher-low sequence
FOMC decision + dot-plot and US Retail Sales Wed 12:30/18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into ceiling · RSI 64 · price 1.3995
Higher lows pressing 1.40 congestion.
USDCAD has ground higher off Wednesday's 1.395 base, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the 55–65 band on each pullback. Falling oil on the US-Iran Hormuz deal kept the Loonie pinned near seven-month lows even as a softer USD capped the advance. Price now sits just under the 1.40–1.402 congestion that defines the week's ceiling.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.39154
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.402 ytd high opens the path toward the 1.40–1.41 congestion top
Loss of 1.395 range low confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Fri and CPI Mon are the week's main CAD catalysts
FOMC dot-plot Wed could materially shift the broad USD tone
USDCAD has ground back toward the 1.4020 YTD high after early-week peak at 1.40235, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 through the latest sessions as soft oil keeps CAD pinned near 7-month lows. RSI(14) cycling in the high 50s/low 60s reflects a slow, low-volatility climb rather than impulsive momentum; the 1.40-1.41 area remains the cap. Wednesday's Warsh-led FOMC and US Retail Sales are the dominant near-term risks.
Support: 1.3931, 1.39501, 1.38989
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3950 swing low reopens 1.3931 pivot
FOMC + US Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend grinding into resistance · RSI 59 · price 1.39957
Higher lows, capped below YTD high.
USDCAD recovered from the dip to 1.3899 early in the window and pushed to 1.4023 before stalling, then churned in a 1.397-1.399 band as soft oil and a softer broad USD offset each other. Price is now grinding back toward the 1.4020 YTD high with RSI mid-range and pullbacks holding the EMA20. The 1.4020 area has rejected the prior advance and remains the structural cap.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3981, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.40235, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4020 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3950 swing low exposes the 1.3931 pivot
FOMC + US Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 61 · price 1.39915
Grinding toward 1.40 ceiling after weekly high.
USDCAD ground to a fresh weekly high near 1.4024 mid-week before pulling back, with CAD pressured by the BoC's patient hold and Fed-BoC divergence. Price now consolidates around 1.399, holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and probing the 1.40000 psych level after Monday's gap-down low at 1.3956 was bought back. RSI(14) sits mid-60s, leaving room before stretched.
Support: 1.39558, 1.39501, 1.39154
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC + Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.40000 opens the path to the 1.40235 week high
Failure to hold 1.39558 weekly open confirms a lower-low
Consolidating just under 1.4000 after week-long grind up.
USDCAD has ground higher all week, tagging the 1.4024 week high before easing into a tight consolidation just under the 1.4000 psych level. CAD stayed soft on weak oil and a patient BoC while the dollar's safe-haven bid faded into the weekend, leaving a Sunday gap lower that has since been recovered. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-range; the 1.4000 round number and 1.4024 week high are capping the topside.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3955, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 week high opens the path toward higher congestion
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.39550 swing low signals a deeper pullback
Higher lows since Monday's dip, capped below 1.4000.
Pair opened the week near 1.398, slipped to a 1.3955 low early Monday, then carved a series of higher lows back above EMA20 and EMA50 into the 1.3993 area. The 1.4000 round number and last week's 1.4023 high remain the congestion ceiling, consistent with the 1.40-1.41 zone flagged on weak oil and Fed-BoC divergence. RSI(14) is cycling in the upper half without reaching overbought.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 opens the path to the 1.4023 week high and 1.41 congestion
Failure to hold 1.3955 reopens the 1.3931 pivot and 1.3900 weekly low
US Retail Sales and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Consolidation near week highs · RSI 58 · price 1.3991
Ranging below 1.40 ceiling after midweek high.
USDCAD spiked to a 1.4023 week high before fading back under the 1.40 round number, then spent the back half of the week grinding sideways between 1.3950 and 1.3990. Price sits just above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the 50s; the post-weekend dip to 1.3950 has been bought back as the US Dollar softens on fading safe-haven demand, but weak oil is keeping CAD capped. The 1.4000 ceiling has rejected attempts twice this week and remains the pivot for the range.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4023
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4000 reopens the path to the 1.4023 week high
Failure to hold 1.3950 confirms a lower low and reopens 1.3900
US Retail Sales + FOMC Wed could materially shift this read