USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 17 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 67 · price 1.40978
Higher highs into 7-month high, consolidating post-spike.
USDCAD ripped higher into the NY session after the hawkish FOMC hold, breaking the 1.4036 congestion and spiking to a 7-month high at 1.41224 before easing back near 1.4098. Price has been pinned in a four-day uptrend above EMA20, with soft oil keeping the oil-linked CAD heavy. Post-spike bars are consolidating into the breakout zone around 1.4067, with RSI(14) elevated near 67.
Support: 1.4067, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41224, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained move above 1.41224 session high opens the path to the 1.4150 nov peak
Loss of the 1.4067 breakout shifts the read back into prior range toward 1.4025
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk
USDCAD ripped through the 1.4020 7-month high after the hawkish FOMC hold lifted the USD broadly, spiking to 1.41224 in a single NY-session impulse before settling near 1.4098. Price holds well above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the 60s; the breakout above 1.4070 is so far holding as support. Momentum has cooled into a tight hold just under the 1.4100 psych level.
Support: 1.4094, 1.4070, 1.4048
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41224
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.4070 would negate the breakout and put 1.4048 prior high back in play
Reclaim of 1.41224 week high opens the path toward the 1.4150 zone
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC and Canada CPI Jun 22 could shift the CAD read
USDCAD spiked through the 1.4036 congestion into the NY session after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision, tagging a 7-month high at 1.41224 before easing back to 1.4094. Price has held a steady grind above EMA20 all week with the breakout above the 7-mo base now the key reference; the latest pullback is shallow and sits well above the 1.4048 breakout shelf. RSI(14) is stretched into overbought after the impulse.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.41224, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.4048 breakout shelf keeps the upside structure intact; an H1 close back below it negates the breakout read
A push through 1.41224 week high opens the path toward the 1.4150 prior peak
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 70 · price 1.40942
Breakout above 1.40 ceiling, consolidating at highs.
USD/CAD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.3950–1.4020 range before the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision and hot US retail sales sparked a sharp USD bid into the NY session. The pair broke the multi-month 1.40 ceiling and spiked to 1.4122, then settled just above 1.4090 as the move cooled. RSI(14) pushed into overbought as the breakout extended past prior session highs.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4000, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4122
What it said to watch
Pullback into 1.4000 prior ceiling — area to watch for retest or rejection
Hourly close back below 1.4000 negates the breakout read
US jobless claims/Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the post-FOMC USD pop
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC a near-term risk to this read
USDCAD spent most of the week grinding a tight 1.3950–1.4020 range before the hawkish FOMC dot-plot and hot US retail sales sparked a sharp USD bid into the NY session, breaking 1.4020 and spiking to 1.41224. RSI(14) is now stretched into overbought as the four-day base gave way; price closed at 1.40997, back below the spike high. The prior 1.4020 ceiling now sits as the breakout pivot.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41224, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 1.4020 negates the breakout and reopens the prior range
Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hold above 1.41224 opens the path to the 1.4150 area
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 71 · price 1.40997
Breakout to fresh weekly highs.
USDCAD broke out of the multi-day 1.3990–1.4035 congestion into the NY session, spiking from 1.4025 to 1.41224 after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision lit a broad USD bid. Price has held well above EMA20 all week with each pullback bought, and the last bar closing back at 1.40997 marks a modest fade off the high. RSI(14) is stretched into overbought territory after the impulse.
Support: 1.4072, 1.4000, 1.3992
Resistance: 1.41224, 1.4150
What it said to watch
A close back below 1.4072 would put the breakout into retest territory
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych level reopens the prior range
Sustained move above 1.41224 session high opens the path to 1.4150
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD leg of this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 74 · price 1.41117
Breakout above 1.4020 7-month high, fresh highs.
USDCAD broke decisively through 1.4000 and the prior 7-month high near 1.4020 in the NY session, surging to 1.41224 after the Fed's hawkish hold and sharply lifted dot plot. The move spent most of the week grinding the 1.40 ceiling above EMA(20) before the impulse leg detached price well above both EMAs. RSI(14) is extended near overbought after the vertical breakout candles.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4020, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41224
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.4070 breakout area keeps the impulse intact
A close back below 1.4000 psych negates the breakout
Thu Jobless Claims / Philly Fed (12:30 UTC) could shift the USD read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 79 · price 1.41117
Breakout above weekly ceiling, fresh highs.
USDCAD broke clear of the 1.4000 ceiling that capped price all week, surging to 1.41224 during the NY session after the hawkish Fed hold and a hot US retail sales print lifted the USD. The pair sits well above EMA20 with RSI(14) deep in overbought near 79, reflecting the speed of the breakout. The 1.4072 breakout shelf is the first reference on any pullback.
Support: 1.40706, 1.4000, 1.39797
Resistance: 1.41224
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.4000 invalidates the breakout read
RSI overbought near 79 — extension is stretched against the H1 EMA20
Thu Jun 18 12:30 UTC US jobless claims / Philly Fed could shift this read
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC adds CAD-side risk
USDCAD surged into the NY session as a hawkish Fed hold (dots lifted, easing bias dropped) plus a strong US retail sales beat drove the dollar bid, spiking the pair from 1.4025 to a fresh 1.4072 high. The break above the 1.4020 7-month ceiling extends a four-day uptrend, with price holding well above EMA(20) and RSI(14) pushed into overbought near 74. The advance is one impulse off the 1.3950 weekly low.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4020, 1.4002
Resistance: 1.4072
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.4048 keeps the breakout intact; a slip back under it risks a false break
Thu Jun 18 jobless claims / Philly Fed could shift the USD read
Failure to clear 1.4072 with stretched RSI flags exhaustion at session high
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 73 · price 1.40683
Higher highs, breakout above week's range.
USDCAD spiked to fresh 7-month highs near 1.4072 on the last bar after the hawkish Fed hold and lifted dot plot, clearing the 1.4048 prior high and this week's 1.4030 congestion. Price has tracked above EMA(20)/EMA(50) since Monday's open with pullbacks repeatedly finding demand around 1.3980–1.3985. RSI(14) is now stretched into overbought territory after the impulsive NY-session leg, with the 1.4090 and 1.4150 (Nov peak) zones overhead.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4020, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.4048 negates the breakout and signals a retest into the prior high
Warsh presser could materially shift this read within the next bars
US Initial Jobless Claims/Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC the next scheduled risk
USDCAD has ground higher all week, breaking the 1.40 ceiling and tagging a fresh 7-month high at 1.4036 into the NY session as soft oil and a patient BoC weighed on CAD. Price is holding above EMA20 with pullbacks shallow, and RSI(14) sits near 68 — elevated but not yet diverging. The 1.40 round number now acts as the pivot the advance is leaning on.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4036, 1.4048, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision now (18:00 UTC) and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained move above 1.4036 week high opens the path to 1.4048 then 1.4090
Loss of the 1.4000 round number signals the breakout is failing back into range
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs · RSI 69 · price 1.4032
Higher highs and higher lows, breakout to week high.
USDCAD has ground higher all week on soft oil and a patient BoC, with price riding above EMA(20) and pushing to fresh week highs near 1.4036 in the NY session. The breakout above the 1.4020 prior-high level has held as support on pullbacks, and RSI(14) near 69 reflects the momentum into the Fed decision. The 1.4048 7-month high is the immediate cap, with the 1.4090 zone above.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4000, 1.3984
Resistance: 1.4036, 1.4048, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision now (18:00 UTC) and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close above 1.4048 opens the path toward the 1.4090 zone
Failure to hold 1.4020 breakout would signal momentum stalling and a return into the prior range
USDCAD has graded higher all week and pushed through the 1.4000 round number into the NY session today, printing a fresh 7-month high at 1.4036 as soft oil on US-Iran peace optimism kept CAD pinned. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 68, reflecting the extended run. The 1.4000 breakout level now sits beneath price as the first reference on any pullback.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3984, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4036
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained move back below 1.4000 would put the breakout in question and expose the 1.3984 prior range
Acceptance above 1.4036 week high extends the uptrend
USDCAD has ground higher through the week, breaking and holding above the 1.4000 psych level as soft oil on US-Iran peace optimism weighed on CAD. Price now sits at the session high near 1.4032, pressing the 1.4048 7-month high with RSI elevated near 68 and well above EMA20/EMA50. The advance has been a steady stair-step of higher lows rather than an impulsive spike.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4036, 1.4048, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (and Warsh presser 18:30) could materially shift this read within the next hour
Close above 1.4048 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.4000 invalidates the breakout read
USDCAD has ground higher all week, riding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) as soft oil on the US-Iran peace push and a patient BoC weigh on CAD. The breakout above the 1.4020 7-month high accelerated into the NY session, with price posting fresh session highs at 1.40333 and RSI(14) pushing toward 70. The 1.4000 round number, also tracking EMA(20), capped pullbacks earlier in the week and now sits as the first reference below.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39844, 1.3966
Resistance: 1.40333, 1.4048, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4048 7-mo high opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.4000 round number signals momentum stalling
USDCAD has ground higher in a steady channel since mid-window, reclaiming and holding above the 1.4000 round number with price above EMA20 and EMA50, pressing a fresh session high at 1.40333 into the NY session. The four-day uptrend reflects soft oil on US-Iran peace optimism weighing on CAD; RSI(14) is now stretched near 70, so the advance is extended. FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the immediate driver ahead.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3985, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40333, 1.4048, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4048 opens the path toward 1.4090
Loss of 1.4000 round number would break the rising channel
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding highs · RSI 64 · price 1.40203
Higher highs and higher lows into 7-month high.
USD/CAD has ground higher for four sessions and is pressing a 7-month high near 1.4021, holding comfortably above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the low-60s. Soft oil on US-Iran peace optimism has kept the oil-linked CAD pinned, and the pair has respected the rising line of higher-lows off Monday's 1.3950 low. The 1.4000 round level is now acting as a floor on pullbacks.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3980, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40212, 1.4048
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially reshape this read
Hourly close above 1.4021 opens the path toward 1.4048 and the 1.4090 zone
Loss of 1.4000 psych and the rising trendline would break the four-day higher-low sequence
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 64 · price 1.40203
Higher highs, fresh weekly high.
USDCAD has ground higher through the week's sessions, holding the 1.4000 round number as support since the NY session yesterday and pressing to a fresh high near 1.4021. Soft oil on US-Iran peace optimism has kept the oil-linked CAD pinned, with price riding above EMA20 and EMA50 and pullbacks finding the moving averages. RSI(14) sits in the low 60s — firm but not yet overbought.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4021, 1.4048
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4021 opens the path toward 1.4048
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.4000 puts the 1.3950 swing low back in play
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 63 · price 1.40162
Higher lows, testing week high.
USDCAD recovered from Monday's dip to 1.3950 and has ground higher all week, reclaiming and holding above the 1.4000 psych level as lower crude on US-Iran peace optimism keeps CAD pressured at seven-month lows. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with pullbacks finding the rising higher-low line, now retesting the week high near 1.4019 into the NY session. RSI(14) is cycling in the low 60s — firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39918, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.40192, 1.4048
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.40192 opens the path toward 1.4048
Failure to hold the 1.4000 psych level exposes the 1.39918 higher low
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 1.40162
Higher lows, pressing week high.
USDCAD has ground higher off the 1.39501 week low, building higher lows and reclaiming the 1.4000 round number on the back of soft crude and a patient BoC. Price now presses the 1.40192 week high with RSI(14) holding in the low-60s; the move has stayed above EMA20 through the recent NY hours. The print sits just under the breakout extension into the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39844, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40192, 1.4048
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.40192 opens the path toward 1.4048
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number exposes 1.39844 swing low
Higher lows since Monday, consolidating above 1.4000.
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's 1.3950 low, holding above the 1.4000 psych level on soft oil and a patient-BoC read, with price anchored above EMA(20). The week high at 1.40165 has capped the latest push and RSI(14) is cycling in the upper-50s rather than extending. Range top remains intact into the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39844, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40165, 1.4048
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC + Warsh presser 18:30 UTC can materially shift this read
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC is the nearer-term swing factor
Hourly close above 1.40165 week high opens the path toward 1.4048
Loss of 1.4000 psych exposes the 1.39844 swing low
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 1.40103
Higher lows holding above 1.4000.
USDCAD has reclaimed 1.4000 and is grinding higher into the NY session, with a series of higher lows since Tuesday's 1.39500 trough as weaker oil and a patient BoC kept CAD pinned at seven-month lows. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) holding near 60; the 1.40165–1.40235 zone has capped repeated attempts this week. Action stayed compressed above the 1.4000 psych level as traders held off ahead of the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3992, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.40165, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.40235 opens the path toward 1.4090
Loss of 1.40000 then 1.39920 would break the higher-low sequence
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC within this bar window
USDCAD has ground higher off Wednesday's 1.3950 base, with each NY-session pullback finding support near the rising EMA(20) and price now coiling just under the 1.40165 week high. Lower crude on US-Iran peace optimism and a patient BoC keep the CAD on the back foot, but RSI(14) cycling near 58 shows momentum cooling into the FOMC. Demand has stepped in repeatedly at 1.4000, keeping the round number intact through the Asian range.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39844, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40165, 1.4048
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.40165 opens the path toward 1.4048
Failure to hold 1.4000 exposes the 1.39844 swing low
USDCAD has carved out higher lows since recovering from the 1.3950 week low, grinding back above the 1.4000 psych level near seven-month highs as soft crude on US-Iran peace optimism keeps CAD pressured. The 1.40165 week high has capped the latest push twice and price is coiling beneath it into the FOMC decision. RSI(14) sits mid-50s, reflecting the slower grind rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3980, 1.39501
Resistance: 1.40165, 1.40235
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the Nov peak
Loss of 1.4000 psych exposes the 1.39800 higher low
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady but slowing near highs · RSI 58 · price 1.40113
Higher lows pressing into weekly resistance.
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's reopen, holding above EMA(20) with a sequence of higher lows building toward the 1.4020 7-month high that has capped attempts this week. RSI(14) near 58 reflects steady but unhurried momentum as price consolidates just under the prior high into the FOMC decision. CAD has found no lift as soft Oil offsets the broader USD pullback.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.4020
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the 1.4030/1.4090 congestion zone
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3940 support breaks the week's higher-low sequence
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 61 · price 1.40113
Higher lows pressing the 7-month high.
USD/CAD has ground higher since Monday's dip to 1.3950, posting higher lows and holding above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the 55-62 band. Price is now pinned just under the 1.4018/1.4023 7-month high as soft oil and a patient BoC keep CAD on the back foot. The dominant lift came through the NY session yesterday, with pullbacks shallow into the EMA20.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3979, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4023 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3990 exposes the 1.3950 week low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 56 · price 1.4002
Grinding higher, capped under 1.4020.
USDCAD has ground higher since Thursday's session low near 1.3950, carving a series of higher lows and now pressing the 1.4020 YTD/7-month high. The advance holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s, but the 1.4020 resistance has capped each attempt as a softer USD into the Fed offsets weak Oil weighing on CAD. Demand has stepped in repeatedly around 1.3940 on pullbacks.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4090
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4090
Loss of 1.3940 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to a 1.40235 week high early Monday, then pulled back toward 1.3950 before grinding back up; price now sits at 1.4002 holding just above EMA20 with RSI cycling around the mid-50s. The 1.4020 7-month high has capped attempts and acted as a ceiling, while soft Oil and a patient BoC have kept the broad bid intact even as the USD wobbles into FOMC. Higher lows since the 1.3950 swing keep the structure constructive within a tightening range under 1.4020.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3950, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 7-month high opens the path toward 1.4030/1.4090
Loss of 1.3940/1.3931 support would break the rising-lows sequence
Fed decision and SEP at 18:00 UTC plus Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could reshape this read
Consolidation under 7-month high after mid-week recovery.
USDCAD has clawed back from the mid-week swing low at 1.3950 and is now coiling in a tight 1.3990-1.4016 band, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s. The 7-month high near 1.4020/1.4024 has capped every push higher this week, while soft oil keeps a floor under the pair into the NY session. Price is pinned in congestion ahead of today's Fed decision.
Support: 1.39797, 1.39501, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40235 7-mo high opens the path to fresh range extension
Loss of 1.39797 higher low exposes the 1.3950 swing low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground to fresh 7-month highs this week on soft oil and a patient BoC, but the advance is stalling under the 1.4020 YTD cap with RSI(14) flattening near 52. Price sits just above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with two attempts at 1.4060 faded back into the 1.3990s. The whole structure is coiling ahead of the Fed decision at 18:00 UTC.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3900, 1.3984
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4062
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4020 opens the path to 1.4060 then 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support
08:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling near highs · RSI 53 · price 1.39973
Consolidation under 7-mo high.
USDCAD is pinned near 7-month highs, coiling between 1.3940 and the 1.4020 cap after rallying off Tuesday's 1.3950 week low. Price has held above EMA(20) through the NY-Asia transition with RSI(14) cycling around the midline — momentum has flattened rather than reversed, as soft oil offsets a broadly softer dollar. Today's FOMC dominates the read.
Support: 1.3940, 1.39501, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4018
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dots at 18:00 UTC will define the next H1 leg
Hourly close above 1.4020 opens the path to the 1.4090 region
Loss of 1.3940 confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's higher-low sequence
08:01 UTC
Range near 7-month highs · RSI 52 · price 1.39973
Consolidation under 1.4020, holding above EMA20.
USDCAD is grinding sideways just under the 1.4020 7-month high after a clean rally off Friday's 1.3950 low into Monday's NY session. Price has tracked EMA20 through the consolidation with RSI(14) cycling around the 50 line — momentum has flattened after the impulse. The 1.4020 cap has held two approaches this week, with demand stepping in repeatedly above 1.3990.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4018
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4050/1.4090
Loss of 1.3940 confirms a lower-low and breaks the consolidation
FOMC decision + SEP at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Grinding higher into 1.40 ceiling, consolidating below YTD high.
USDCAD has ground back to the 1.40 ceiling after dipping to a 1.3950 week low mid-window, with price holding above EMA(20) through the NY-Asia transition. The grind reflects soft oil and a patient BoC keeping CAD heavy near 7-month lows, while the 1.4020 YTD high has capped the advance and RSI sits mid-50s, momentum less impulsive than last leg. Range top still intact into the Fed.
Support: 1.3994, 1.3980, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4024, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + SEP at 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver for the next read
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path to 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 unwinds the rising-low structure
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into ceiling · RSI 61 · price 1.4006
Higher lows pressing the 1.4020 range top.
USDCAD has ground higher all week toward the 1.4020 ceiling, holding above EMA20 with pullbacks shallow as soft oil kept CAD heavy. Price stalled just under the year-to-date high near 1.4020/1.40235 and is consolidating around 1.4006 into the Fed, with RSI elevated near 60 reflecting the stretched grind.
Support: 1.3994, 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + SEP at 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver for the next bars
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 EMA20 region breaks the week's higher-low structure
USDCAD has ground higher since the start of the window, printing higher lows into the 1.40 ceiling with the 1.4020 YTD high capping the advance. Price idles just under 1.40 as traders sit on hands ahead of the FOMC decision, while soft oil on US-Iran de-escalation has kept CAD heavy all week. RSI(14) cycling near 60 reflects the slow grind rather than fresh momentum.
Support: 1.3944, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path to 1.4090
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground to fresh 7-month highs through the week, holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) as soft oil and a patient BoC keep CAD heavy. Price is consolidating just under the 1.4020 ytd high after rejecting 1.40235, with higher lows building since the 1.3950 dip. Momentum is flattening into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3940, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and dot plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term driver
H1 close above 1.4020 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold the 1.3980 swing low exposes 1.3940 support then 1.3931
USDCAD has ground to fresh year-to-date highs near 1.4020 this week on soft oil and a patient BoC, then stalled into tight consolidation either side of the 1.40 handle. Price is holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s — momentum has flattened rather than reversed, with the 1.4020 ceiling capping the advance twice. The Fed decision and dot-plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst into the next session.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3956, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4020, 1.4090
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path to the 1.4090 zone
Failure to hold the 1.3956 swing low would break the week's higher-low structure
FOMC decision/dot-plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground out fresh year-to-date highs near the 1.40 ceiling this week, pinned by soft oil and a patient BoC, but momentum has flattened with price coiling in a tight 1.3982–1.4018 range. Holding above EMA20 and EMA50 since the rebound off Tuesday's 1.39501 swing low, with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. The 1.40162 week high and 1.4020 ytd high have capped attempts, leaving structure as consolidation under the ceiling.
Support: 1.39797, 1.39501, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.4020, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and dot-plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 breaks the higher-low sequence
USDCAD has ground higher for a fourth straight up-day since Monday's open, with falling oil keeping CAD on the back foot and lifting price to 7-month highs near 1.40. Buyers have stalled into the 1.4020 week high, with the last sessions coiling just under the round number on shrinking ranges. RSI(14) sits mid-50s, reflecting the flattening momentum rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4014
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh tone at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3990 EMA20 turns focus to 1.3940 support
Grinding higher into 1.40 ceiling, consolidating near week high.
USDCAD has held a fourth straight up-day, grinding back to the 1.40 psych pivot as falling oil and a patient BoC keep CAD capped. EMA(20) has supported each pullback since the Sunday gap, with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s rather than pushing fresh extremes. The 1.4016–1.4023 week-high zone has capped two attempts; range top still respected ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.3985, 1.39501, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4023 opens the path toward the 1.4140 area
FOMC decision and dot-plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3985 EMA(20) exposes the 1.39501 swing low
USD/CAD is grinding sideways just under the 1.40 round number for a fourth up-day, with falling oil continuing to cap CAD. Price holds above EMA20/50 but the week high at 1.40235 has capped attempts twice, leaving a tight range between the 1.3984 session low and the 1.40 pivot. RSI(14) cycling near 54 reflects the stall rather than fresh impulse.
Support: 1.3984, 1.39501, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4016, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and dot-plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this read
H1 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold the 1.3984 session low exposes the 1.39501 week low
USDCAD has held a grind higher all week on soft oil and a patient BoC, pressing into the 1.40 round number where supply has capped attempts toward 1.40235. Price is coiling between 1.398 and 1.402 with RSI(14) cycling mid-50s and holding above EMA(20)/EMA(50). Fed dot-plot and Warsh press conference at 18:00 UTC are the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3950, 1.39349
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40162, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC dot-plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.40235 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.39500 confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's rising support
Consolidating below 1.40-1.41 ceiling after 7-month-high breakout.
USDCAD broke to fresh 7-month highs near 1.4020 earlier this week and has since coiled in a tight range, dragged higher by softer oil and a patient BoC while holding above EMA(20). The weekend gap from Friday's 1.3988 close opened the leg up to 1.4018, and price now sits at EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. The 1.4020 ceiling has capped progress on each NY-session attempt.
Support: 1.3996, 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 opens the 1.4090/1.41 zone
Loss of 1.3940 negates the breakout structure
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC tomorrow 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent a fourth up-day pinned just under the 1.40 psych level after Monday's rally to a 7-month high at 1.4023, with falling oil and a patient BoC keeping CAD heavy. Price is chopping around EMA(20) with RSI(14) mid-range near 52; the 1.4023 week high has capped attempts while higher lows off 1.3950 keep the base intact. The 1.40 round number remains the immediate pivot.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3935, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4023
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4023 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3950 puts the 1.3935 week low and 1.3900 support back in focus
FOMC decision and dot plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC a near-term catalyst for the USD leg
USD/CAD has ground out a fourth up-day this week, pushing to 7-month highs near 1.4018 as soft oil and a patient BoC keep CAD on the back foot. Price is now coiling around 1.3990–1.4000 below that ceiling, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling around the midline — momentum is flattening into the FOMC. Higher lows off Monday's 1.3950 base remain intact.
Support: 1.39797, 1.39501, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser is the defining catalyst for the USD leg
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could move the read into the decision
Sustained H1 close above 1.4018 opens the 1.4090/1.4140 zone
Loss of 1.3980 swing low would break the week's rising-low sequence toward 1.3950
USDCAD pushed to 7-month highs near 1.4023 early in the week on falling oil and a patient BoC, then stalled and has chopped sideways in the 1.3985–1.4020 band. Price now sits just under EMA20 with RSI flat around the midline — momentum has cooled after the impulse. The 1.4000 round number caps repeated attempts while the 1.3940 area has absorbed pullbacks.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained close above 1.40235 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3940 exposes 1.3900 psych support
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 56 · price 1.39977
Higher lows holding under week high.
USDCAD has ground out a fourth straight up-day, pressing the 1.4018 week high as soft oil and a firm USD into the FOMC keep CAD on the back foot. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50, with this week's pullbacks finding support near the rising trendline and the 1.3950 week low. The 1.4018/1.4024 zone has capped attempts twice — an area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.3992, 1.39501, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40235
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.40235 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 confirms a lower-low and breaks the trendline
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near YTD high · RSI 57 · price 1.39977
Higher highs/lows, capped below 1.4020 ceiling.
USDCAD has logged a fourth straight up-day, grinding from Monday's 1.3931 low to press the 1.4020 YTD/7-month high as soft oil and a firm USD into the FOMC keep CAD pinned. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the 50s, but the last session has stalled in a tight 1.399-1.402 consolidation just below the ceiling. A weekend gap lower into 1.3956 was promptly filled, leaving the up-structure intact.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3931, 1.39558
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4020 ytd high opens the path to 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 swing low breaks the rising sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read