Higher-high/higher-low structure intact, with price grinding into the 1.4020 YTD/7-month high ceiling after breaking the multi-month base. CAD remains pinned near lows on soft oil and a patient BoC while a firm USD presses the topside. ATR(14) is compressing as price consolidates in a tight band below 1.4020, a setup that typically precedes a breakout.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3900, 1.39186
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4023 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 breaks the higher-low structure
FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) is the defining catalyst for this read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at highs · RSI 58 · price 1.39985
Higher highs/lows, capped near 1.4020.
USDCAD has ground to 7-month highs on soft oil and a firm USD, tagging 1.40235 before stalling into the 1.4020 YTD ceiling. Higher-low structure stays intact since the early-month base, but the last two pushes above 1.4015 were rejected, leaving price consolidating just under the highs. With the Fed decision Wednesday, ATR(14) remains moderate and the move is neither expanding nor compressing decisively.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 opens the path to the 1.4090 zone
Loss of 1.3950 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
USDCAD remains in a multi-week uptrend, grinding 7-month highs as soft oil from the US-Iran deal and a patient BoC weigh on CAD. The 1.4024 YTD high capped the latest push and the most recent bar rejected back to 1.3982, stalling momentum just above the rising EMA50. Price is consolidating beneath the ceiling rather than reversing, with the 1.3931 swing low the first structural support.
Support: 1.3931, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3931 would mark the first lower-low of the trend
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 56 · price 1.39823
Higher highs/lows, capped at 1.40.
USDCAD remains in a multi-week uptrend, grinding to 7-month highs as soft oil and a firm USD weigh on CAD, but the 1.4024 YTD high is capping — the latest bar pushed to 1.40154 then rejected back to 1.39823. Structure holds higher lows since the early-month base, with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked beneath price. ATR(14) is steady, no compression, leaving the pair coiled just under the range top.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 opens the path to 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3940 confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.3900
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC + US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 64 · price 1.40066
Higher highs and higher lows, fresh multi-month highs.
USDCAD pushed to fresh 7-month highs and cleared the 1.4020 YTD ceiling, driven by oil weakness on the US-Iran deal and a hawkish-Fed USD bid. Higher-low structure has held since the early-month base near 1.3865, and the EMA20/EMA50 stack remains bullish. ATR has steadied around 24 pips as price grinds against the 1.40235 high.
Support: 1.3931, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the 1.4090 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.3931 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Higher-high, higher-low structure intact since early month, with a four-session push driving price to YTD highs near 1.4024 on soft oil and a hawkish-Fed USD bid. The pair has broken above the prior multi-month base and is retesting the 1.4020 ceiling after a brief pullback held the 1.3953 swing low. ATR(14) is steady, consistent with an extending trend rather than compression.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4024 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold the 1.3953 swing low would mark the first lower-low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, four sessions of gains.
USDCAD has carried a clean higher-low sequence for two weeks and is stalling just under the 1.4020 YTD high, the move fed by soft oil and a patient BoC against a USD held firm into the Fed. ATR(14) has compressed near 21 pips as price coils beneath the prior 1.40235 spike high, with EMA20 and EMA50 both below price and trending up. The level around 1.4020 has now capped twice and is the pivot for the next leg.
Support: 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4020 ytd high opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3931 swing low signals the rising-lows structure breaking
FOMC dot plot/SEP Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 65 · price 1.40042
Higher highs and higher lows, pressing YTD high.
Higher-low structure intact since the early-month base near 1.3730, with price rallying four straight sessions into the 1.4024 YTD high — driven by a firm USD into the Fed and soft oil weighing on CAD. The mid-window pullback to 1.3953 held and price has reclaimed the 1.40 round number, keeping the impulse alive. ATR(14) is expanding as the trend extends rather than compressing.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4140
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot/SEP Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4024 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3931 would unwind the breakout and threaten a lower high
USDCAD remains in a clear uptrend off the early-month 1.375 base, posting higher highs and higher lows into the 1.40-1.41 congestion. Price stalled at the 1.4023 ytd high with repeated rejection there, and is now consolidating just under the 1.40 round number as soft oil and a patient BoC keep CAD pinned near seven-month lows. ATR is moderate, with the move neither over-extended nor compressing.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4000
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4023 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3931 pivot confirms a lower-low and a corrective pullback
FOMC decision + dots Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 62 · price 1.39983
Higher highs and higher lows, capped below 1.4025.
USDCAD is in a clean H4 uptrend, posting higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 1.373, with the loonie pinned near seven-month lows on soft oil and a patient BoC. Price spiked to the 1.40235 ytd high before being rejected back to the 1.3950 swing low, and is now re-testing the 1.4000 psych level. RSI near 62 reflects stretched but not extreme momentum into that ceiling.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40235
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 ytd high opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold the 1.3950 swing low exposes the 1.3931 prior low
Uptrend intact with higher lows since the early-month base near 1.3731; price has ground toward the 1.40-1.41 ceiling as CAD stays soft on weak oil and Fed-BoC divergence. The brief poke to 1.4024 was rejected and price is now consolidating just below it. ATR holding moderate — extension is steady rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.4024 swing high opens the path into the 1.41 ceiling
Loss of the 1.3931 pivot would mark the first lower-low and challenge the uptrend
FOMC and US Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read
USDCAD remains in a multi-week uptrend, grinding toward the 1.40-1.41 congestion ceiling on Fed-BoC divergence and soft oil. Price spiked to 1.4024 then pulled back into a tight consolidation around 1.398-1.399, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with higher lows intact since the early-month base. ATR is steady rather than expanding, leaving price coiling just under the recent high.
Support: 1.3931, 1.3900, 1.3865
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4024 opens the path into the 1.41 range ceiling
Failure to hold 1.3931 swing pivot exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
FOMC + US Retail Sales Wed could materially shift this read