21:06 UTC
Uptrend since early Sep, stalling under 1.4300 · RSI 58 · price 1.4218
HH/HL leg from 1.3759 now in a two-week 1.4203–1.4298 range.
Uptrend in place since the Sep 8 swing low at 1.3759. That 540-pip leg cleared the June 1.4248 high and printed the 1.4298 swing high, an 18-month high, on Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock. Since Sep 30 price has rotated in a 1.4203–1.4298 consolidation, and the Oct 14 session slipped from 1.4283 back toward the range floor despite the hot US CPI beat. EMA20 is flattening just under price, while a rising EMA50 sits near 1.4050, between the 1.4130 prior pivot and the 1.4000 psych level (50% of the Sep–Oct rally fib).
Support: 1.4203, 1.4130, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4298
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4298 swing high and 1.4300 handle extends the higher-high sequence to fresh 18-month highs
- Daily close below the 1.4203 range floor turns the Oct 5 / Oct 9 highs into a double-top shape and exposes the 1.4130 prior pivot (38.2% of the Sep–Oct rally fib sits at 1.4092)
- Macklem Thu 04:15 GMT and US PPI / retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the likely catalysts to resolve the 1.4203–1.4298 range; Canada CPI follows Mon Oct 19
- Loss of the 1.4000 psych level and EMA50 would end the Sep uptrend read