1.4196–1.4299 week range; twin rejection at range top.
The hot US CPI print drove a 100-pip NY-session spike on Wednesday to 1.4299. That high matched Friday's jobs-driven high and was rejected, forming a double top just under the 1.4300 handle. The leg has since faded through and after NY close, retracing over 70% of the move. Price is back at 1.4225, between the fib 61.8 and the fib 78.6, and below the EMA20/EMA50 ema cluster near 1.4237, with RSI(14) easing to ~45. The chart is weaker than the digest's USD-strength tone: the week range holds between the 1.4196 week low and the 1.4299 top, with Tuesday's 1.4203 tue low just above the floor.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4237 ema cluster (fib 61.8) would neutralise the post-CPI fade, with the 1.4270 weekly open next overhead
Failure to hold the 1.4203 tue low and the 1.4196 week low confirms the double top and a range break lower
Acceptance above the 1.4299 double top / 1.4300 handle invalidates the reversal read
Macklem speech Thu 04:15 GMT and US PPI/Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4196–1.4299 range; twin rejection under 1.4300, lower highs since CPI peak.
USDCAD has held a 1.4196–1.4299 range since Friday's Canada jobs spike. Wednesday's hot US CPI drove a 100-pip burst into the NY open, from the 1.4196 week low to the 1.4299 week high, a second rejection just under the 1.4300 18-month high. The rest of NY hours unwound it in a post-CPI fade of lower highs to a 1.4230 NY low near the 61.8% of the CPI leg, leaving price on the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster at 1.4240 with RSI(14) back near 51, below the 1.4270 weekly open and the 1.4287 Monday high.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4220, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4287, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the post-CPI fade line and the 1.4270 weekly open would undo the fade read; the 1.4287 Monday high is next
Failure to hold the 1.4220 pre-cpi base exposes the 1.4196 week low and the 78.6% of the CPI leg
Acceptance above the 1.4299 week high breaks the twin-peak cap at the 18-month high; another rejection there keeps the range intact
Macklem's speech in Thursday's Asia session and US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4196–1.4299 weekly range; second rejection at the range top.
The hot US CPI beat lifted the pair from the Asia-session week low at 1.4196 to a week high of 1.4299 in the first hours of NY. The gain did not hold despite broad USD strength, and the pair has unwound to the 61.8% retracement of that CPI spike. That second rejection just under 1.4300, after Friday's jobs-driven spike to 1.4298, leaves a double-top shape with the week low as neckline. Price is sitting just below the EMA20/EMA50 ema cluster near 1.4240, with RSI(14) back to 47 and ATR expanded to about 13 pips on the spike.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema cluster near 1.4240 would ease the fade read, and the week open at 1.4270 is the next reference above
Failure to hold the pre-cpi base at 1.4220 (78.6% of the CPI spike) exposes the week low at 1.4196, the double-top neckline
A close above the week high at 1.4299 invalidates the double-top shape and breaks the range
Macklem's Thursday 04:15 GMT remarks and US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 GMT Thursday could materially shift this read
1.4196–1.4299 weekly range; lower highs since CPI high.
USDCAD has held a 1.4196–1.4299 range all week. Tuesday's NY-session slide set the week low early Wednesday, then the hot US CPI beat drove a ~95-pip CPI impulse to 1.4299 in the first hour of NY. That high stalled a pip from Friday's 1.4298 jobs-spike peak, forming an unconfirmed double top at the 18-month high, and the post-CPI fade has since pulled price to the 61.8% fib near 1.4240, where the EMA20 and EMA50 converge, with RSI(14) cooling from the 70s to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4222, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4300 breaks the double top and the 18-month high, ending the range read
Reclaiming the 1.4287 monday high would break the post-CPI fade line of lower highs
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.4240 exposes the cpi base at 1.4222, the pre-release breakout point
A break of the 1.4196 week low would confirm the double top
Macklem (Thu 04:15 GMT) and the US PPI/Retail Sales cluster (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
1.4196–1.4299 weekly range; twin highs under 1.4300 capping, retracing the CPI impulse.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) drove a 100-pip NY-session impulse from Wednesday's Asia low at 1.4196 to a week high of 1.4299, stalling a pip above Friday's jobs-spike high and leaving twin highs under the 1.4300 cap. Price has since slipped below the 38.2% fib at 1.4260 and is testing last week's prior close at 1.4254. It still holds above EMA(20) near 1.4243, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60 from overbought. The weekly open at 1.4270 is the nearest overhead pivot inside a range that Tuesday's London-to-NY selloff and today's CPI spike have both failed to break.
Support: 1.42538, 1.42431, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.42703, 1.42993
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4299 week high breaks the 1.4300 cap and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.4243 ema20 and the 1.4248 50% fib of the CPI impulse exposes the 1.4196 week low
Beige Book (18:00 GMT today) and Macklem on Thursday at 04:15 GMT could shift the USD/CAD rate-divergence read
US Retail Sales and PPI on Thursday at 12:30 GMT are the main event risk to the 1.4196–1.4299 range
16:02 UTC
Range-bound, impulsive CPI spike stalling at range top · RSI 68 · price 1.42734
1.4196–1.4299 weekly range; double top forming at the 18m high.
Hot US core CPI drove a ~100-pip NY-session rally from Wednesday's Asia-session week low at 1.4196. The move stalled at 1.4299, matching Friday's post-jobs spike to the 18m high and forming a potential double top. Rejection since has pulled price back to the 1.4270 week open, fully reversing Tuesday's London-NY selloff. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.4237, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the CPI impulse, and RSI(14) has eased from overbought to around 68.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4237, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4287 monday high puts a retest of the 18m high back in play.
Sustained close above 1.4299/1.4300 breaks the double top and the weekly range top.
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 61.8% fib near 1.4237 exposes the 1.4196 week low, the double top neckline.
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC today and BoC Macklem Thu 04:15 GMT could materially shift this read.
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and Retail Sales are the next USD catalyst for the range.
15:02 UTC
Two-way range, sharp CPI-driven upswing into the highs · RSI 70 · price 1.42818
1.4196–1.4299 week range; CPI impulse retesting the 18-month high.
Monday held the upper 1.42s below the 1.4287 Monday high. Tuesday's London-NY transition and NY session unwound the pair to 1.4203, and Asia printed a 1.4196 week low today. The hot US core CPI beat then drove a roughly 100-pip impulse in the first hours of NY, reversing the early dip that followed Williams' comments. The move stalled at 1.4299 with a rejection wick, a marginal retest of Friday's jobs-driven 18m high. Price holds above the 1.4270 week open, with EMA(20) lagging near 1.4235 and RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4235, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4299 18m high and 1.4300 handle breaks the week's range top
Failure to hold the 1.4270 week open opens a deeper retrace toward ema20 and the 61.8% of the cpi impulse near 1.4235
Return below the 1.4196 week low would erase the entire CPI move
Beige Book (18:00 GMT) and Thursday's Macklem speech (04:15 GMT), US PPI and retail sales (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Tuesday's London-NY slide broke Monday's range and made a week low at 1.4196 in Wednesday's Asia session. The US core CPI beat at 12:30 GMT then drove a roughly 100-pip, two-bar NY reversal that erased the whole leg. Price now presses Friday's Canada-jobs 18m high at 1.4298, with the monday high at 1.4287 and the week open at 1.4270 just beneath, and RSI(14) near 83 overbought and stretched well clear of EMA(20).
Support: 1.4287, 1.4270, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 18m high clears the range top; rejection there leaves a potential double top with Friday's high
Slip back below the 1.4287 monday high and the 1.4270 week open returns price to Monday's range, exposing the cpi leg fib 50% near 1.4247
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could extend or fade the CPI move
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales, then Macklem on Fri, could materially shift this read; the week low at 1.4196 stays the range floor
13:03 UTC
Range, sharp CPI-driven reversal off the lows · RSI 70 · price 1.42712
Week range 1.4196–1.4287; double bottom near 1.4200, price back at weekly open.
USD/CAD gave back Monday's NY-session push to the 1.4287 week high in a Tuesday NY sell-off that ran to 1.4203. Wednesday's Asian range then slipped to a 1.4196 week low, but the break under 1.4200 failed: the hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) produced a 65-pip H1 bar that reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.4226 and lifted price back to the 1.4270 weekly open. That leaves a double bottom at 1.4203/1.4196, with price above the 78.6% level of the week decline fib and RSI(14) up near 70 from the mid-30s.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4226, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4287 week high clears the range top and exposes the 1.4298 18m high from Friday's jobs spike
Failure to hold the 1.4270 weekly open would leave the CPI bar as an isolated spike inside the range, with stretched USD positioning flagged in the digest
A return below EMA(20) near 1.4226 and then the 1.4196 week low would void the double bottom
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could extend or unwind the CPI move
Thursday 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
USDCAD has carved lower highs since Monday's NY-session week high at 1.4287, and Tuesday's London-NY selloff broke from 1.4242 to 1.4203 as the USD slipped on easing yields and oil. Asia printed a marginal new week low at 1.4196 on a higher RSI(14) low, a bullish divergence versus Tuesday's oversold flush. London has lifted price back above the ema20 into the 1.4217–1.4220 range top that has capped the pair since Tuesday's NY session.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4196, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4242, 1.4287
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core is the swing factor
H1 close above the 1.4220 range top puts the 1.4242 breakdown level and 50% fib in play
Lower-highs trendline from the week high sits near 1.4236; a break there disrupts the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4196 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.4130 channel base
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.4287 high.
USDCAD has slid from Monday's NY-session high at 1.4287 to a 1.4196 week low in Wednesday's Asian session. The decisive leg came through Tuesday's London-NY transition as the dollar corrected into US CPI. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 1.4216 and below EMA(50) at 1.4232, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Wed decline. The week low printed with a higher RSI(14) trough near 23 versus Tuesday's ~19, a mild bullish divergence as London lifts price off the lows.
Support: 1.4196, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4232, 1.4270
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read; core m/m versus the 0.2% forecast is the swing number
H1 close above the 1.4221 lower high and the ema50/38.2% zone at 1.4232 would break the lower-highs sequence, with the weekly open at 1.4270 the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.4196 week low confirms a fresh lower low and puts the channel low near 1.4130 in view
Bowman remarks at 09:40 GMT may move USD ahead of the CPI release
Lower highs from Monday's week high; tight base just above the week low.
The week opened near 1.4270 and was capped at the 1.4287 week high on Monday. That high sits below Friday's Canada jobs spike to 1.4298. Tuesday's NY session drove the decline through the Monday low at 1.4240 as the USD corrected after Williams' remarks and softer oil. Asia then printed a fresh week low at 1.4196, but RSI(14) did not confirm the lower low. Price has since flattened around the 1.4200 round number, with the ema20 near 1.4216 now acting as the first cap and the 50% fib of the week high-low fib coinciding with the Monday low.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4240, 1.42871
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; consensus is core 0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.4216 eases the downtrend read; a reclaim of the Monday low at 1.4240 (50% of the week high-low fib) would mark a deeper correction of the move
Failure to hold the week low at 1.4196 confirms a lower low and opens the channel base near 1.4130
Any Macklem readout that downplays BoC tightening could lift the pair off the round number regardless of CPI
Lower highs from 1.4287 week high; Tuesday range broken lower in Asia.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session week high at 1.4287. The main leg lower came across Tuesday's London-NY transition as USD pulled back from its 18-month high ahead of CPI, taking price back below the 1.4270 weekly open. The Asia session today slipped under Tuesday's 1.4205–1.4221 range to a 1.4196 week low; price holds below EMA(20) near 1.4217 and EMA(50), RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s, and the range top and the 50% fib of the week's drop at 1.4242 sit overhead.
Support: 1.4196, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4242, 1.4270
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4221 range top would turn the Asia range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4196 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.41 round number
Macklem (06:05 UTC) and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a core beat would bring the 50% fib at 1.4242 and the weekly open into play
Bowman (09:40 and 14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT add USD event risk through the NY session
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new week low · RSI 31 · price 1.41981
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.4287 high.
Friday's jobs-driven spike to 1.4298 has been fully unwound. After Monday's 1.4287 high, the week's decline came from London into NY on Tuesday as the dollar corrected from its 18-month high, printing lower highs at 1.4272, 1.4261 and 1.4221. The Asia session has broken the 1.4203 tuesday low to a fresh week low at 1.4196, below the 1.4200 handle, with price under EMA(20) near 1.4218 and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 31 showing no divergence yet.
Support: 1.41964, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.42034, 1.42206, 1.42418
What it said to watch
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 1.4203 tuesday low would turn the Asian break into a false break
A break of the 1.4221 lower high, alongside EMA(20) and the lower highs trendline, invalidates the downtrend sequence
The 50% fib of the week's decline at 1.4242 is the first retracement level of note on any rebound
Acceptance below the 1.4196 week low leaves the 1.4100 round number as the next marked support
Lower highs since Monday's peak; jobs spike fully retraced.
USDCAD has fully unwound Friday's jobs-driven spike to 1.4298. Since Monday's NY-session peak at 1.4287 it has printed lower highs, and the main leg lower came during Tuesday's NY session on broad USD softness ahead of CPI. Asia session has edged to a fresh week low at 1.4199, just under the Friday low near 1.4206, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 30. The 1.4203–1.4221 range top has capped every bounce since Tuesday afternoon, and the weekly open at 1.4270 sits above the 50% fib of the week's decline.
Support: 1.4199, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4221, 1.4270
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4221 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4199 week low opens the path toward the 1.41 round number
Reclaiming the Friday low at 1.4206 would mark the Asia dip as a failed extension
Recovery through the 50% fib near 1.4243 brings the weekly open at 1.4270 back into view
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the 1.42 handle · RSI 24 · price 1.42023
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday's 1.4298 spike high.
USD/CAD has fully unwound Friday's spike to the 1.4298 18m high on the Canadian jobs miss. Since then it has printed lower highs at Monday's 1.4287 and below the 1.4270 weekly open, and Tuesday's slide through the London-NY transition came as the USD eased ahead of US CPI. Asia session extended to a fresh week low at 1.4199, just under the 1.4206 pre-jobs base, with price capped below EMA(20) near 1.4222 throughout. RSI(14) is oversold near 24 but carved a higher low versus Tuesday's trough, a mild bullish divergence at the 1.42 handle.
Support: 1.41993, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.42703, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.4222 would interrupt the lower-highs sequence; the 38.2% fib retrace of the 1.4298-1.4199 drop sits at 1.4237
Sustained trade below the 1.4199 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4100 round number
BoC Macklem 06:05 UTC: dovish pushback on hike pricing could lift price back toward the 1.4270 weekly open
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a hot core print reopens the 1.4298 18m high, while a soft core print puts the 1.4100 round number in play
Lower high at 1.4287 under 1.4298, Tuesday range broken lower.
Monday's high at 1.4287 printed a lower high beneath Friday's 1.4298 jobs high. Tuesday's London-into-NY selloff, on a softer USD and pre-CPI caution, took price back below EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 1.4203–1.4222 range that held through Tuesday's late session gave way in Asia, leaving price at the 1.4200 round number with RSI(14) near 30 and the range top, with EMA(20) just above at ~1.4224, as nearest resistance.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.4222 range top and EMA(20) would mark the Asia break as a false break
Sustained trade below the 1.4200 round number exposes the 1.41 psych level
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the monday high back in focus
Recovery through the monday high at 1.4287 would negate the lower-high sequence and reopen the 1.4298 jobs high
01:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend, oversold at the range floor · RSI 25 · price 1.42069
Lower high at 1.4287 under the 1.4298 spike; price retesting the 1.4203–1.4206 floor.
Friday's jobs-driven spike to the 1.4298 18m high was followed by a lower high at 1.4287 on Monday. Tuesday's London-into-NY selloff came as the USD softened and crude eased. It took price back through the week open and EMA(20) to a 1.4203 Tuesday low, retesting Friday's Asian-session floor near 1.4206. Since then the pair has compressed in a 1.4203–1.4220 band below EMA20 at 1.4227, with RSI(14) oversold near 25 and the 1.4200 round number directly underneath.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42272, 1.42703, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4203 tuesday low and 1.4200 round number breaks the four-day range floor, opening the path toward 1.4100
Recovery above EMA20 at 1.4227 and the 50% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday drop near 1.4245 would ease the downside read; a return through the week open at 1.4270 reopens the lower highs line
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC today and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print would put the 18m high back in focus
Lower highs below 1.4298; tight base above 1.4203 week low.
Friday's jobs-driven spike to 1.4298 met rejection, and Monday's NY session stalled at a lower high of 1.4287 after the week opened at 1.4270. USD softened ahead of CPI and crude eased, and Tuesday's London-NY transition drove the decline to a 1.4203 week low, just under Friday's 1.4206 base. Since then price has compressed in a 15-pip band at 1.4205–1.4220 below EMA(20) near 1.4231, with RSI(14) near 33 without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4270, 1.4287
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4203 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.41 round number
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 38.2% of the Mon-Tue drop near 1.4235 puts the weekly open at 1.4270 back in focus
Rejection below the Monday high at 1.4287 keeps the lower-highs line intact