Lower highs from 1.4298; Tuesday slide undercut Friday's low, now compressing at week low.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss spiked the pair to the 1.4298 jobs high, but Monday stalled at a lower high near 1.4287. Tuesday's USD pullback ahead of CPI then drove an ~80-pip slide through the London-NY transition, from above the 1.4270 weekly open to a 1.4203 week low that briefly undercut Friday's 1.4206 low. Price is compressing in a tight 15-pip band above the week low, below EMA(20) at 1.4232 and with RSI(14) near 28. The 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday drop fib sits at 1.4235, overlapping EMA(20).
Support: 1.4203, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4270, 1.4298
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 1.41 psych level in focus
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC: a dovish lean on labour slack could lift the pair back toward ema20
H1 close below the 1.4203 week low turns the sweep of Friday's low into a lower-low continuation
Recovery above ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 1.4235 eases the downside momentum; a close back above the 1.4270 weekly open restores the range read
The lower highs trendline from the 1.4298 jobs high caps rebounds until broken
Lower highs from 1.4298, Monday low broken, tight base above Tuesday low.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Friday's jobs-driven spike to the 1.4298 18m high. Tuesday's slide through the London-NY transition broke the Monday low at 1.4240 as USD softened on lower crude and pre-CPI caution. Price has since compressed in a roughly 15-pip band just above the Tuesday low at 1.4203, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flattening near 31.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4270, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Tuesday low at 1.4203 extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.41 psych area flagged in CAD commentary
Recovery above the Monday low at 1.4240, which coincides with the 38.2% fib, would shift the read back toward range; the week open at 1.4270 sits near the 61.8%
A break of the lower highs trendline and a close above the 1.4298 18m high invalidate the downtrend read
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday's 1.4298 spike, price parked on twin lows 1.4203/1.4206.
USD/CAD erased Monday's gains on Tuesday. It fell about 84 pips from the 1.4287 Monday high, and most of the drop came in the London-NY transition and first hours of NY as the USD paused ahead of CPI and softer crude failed to weigh on CAD further. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.4237 and EMA(50) near 1.4249, consolidating just above the twin lows at 1.4203/1.4206 (Friday and Tuesday) with RSI(14) in the high-20s. Each recovery since Friday's jobs-driven spike to the 18m high at 1.4298 has stalled at a lower high.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4200, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4270, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close below the twin lows and the 1.4200 round number would break the week's range floor and open the 1.41 figure cited as support in the CAD digest
Recovery above the monday low at 1.4240 (near the 38.2% fib and EMA20) would relieve the lower highs sequence; the week open at 1.4270 is the next reference
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read; a hot core print would put the 18m high back in focus
USD/CAD has fully retraced Friday's jobs-driven spike to 1.4298. Monday's NY-session high at the 1.4287 week high formed a lower high, and Tuesday's London-NY transition selloff, on pre-CPI USD softness and weaker crude, took price back below the 1.4270 weekly open. The move bottomed at a 1.4203 week low, which dipped just under Thursday's 1.4206 floor before stalling. That leaves a possible false break, with RSI(14) near 27 and price capped beneath EMA20 around 1.4232.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4270, 1.4287
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4203 week low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.4100 round number flagged as Scotiabank support
Recovery through EMA20 near 1.4232 and the 38.2% of Tuesday's decline (1.4235) would turn the dip below 1.4206 into a false break
Reclaiming the 1.4270 weekly open neutralises the lower-highs read; the week high at 1.4287 and Friday's 1.4298 remain the cap
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Tuesday's range break · RSI 26 · price 1.42146
USDCAD traded a 1.4240–1.4287 band from the weekly open at 1.4270 through Monday, then printed lower highs below the Monday high. Tuesday's late-London-into-NY sell-off broke the Monday low as Treasury yields dipped and crude slid, reaching a week low at 1.4203 near Friday's 1.4206 trough. Price is now consolidating below EMA(20) near 1.4239 with RSI(14) oversold around 26, just above the 1.4200 psych level.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.42703, 1.42871
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4240 monday low, where EMA(20) and the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off sit, would undercut the range-break read
Failure to hold the 1.4203 week low and a close below 1.4200 psych extends the lower-low sequence
A hold above 1.4203, near Friday's 1.4206 low, leaves a possible double-bottom base in play
Macklem speaks Wed 06:05 UTC; US CPI is due Wed 12:30 UTC. Either could shift this read, with the weekly open at 1.4270 and the monday high at 1.4287 back in focus on a hot print
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Tuesday leg · RSI 24 · price 1.42161
Lower highs from Friday spike; retest of Friday base.
Friday's LFS spike to 1.4298 has fully unwound. Monday's rebound stalled at a lower week high of 1.4287, and Tuesday's London-to-NY selloff, on softer US yields and crude, cut through the weekly open at 1.4270 to a 1.4203 week low. That retests Friday's pre-jobs base near 1.4206. Price is now compressing just above that level, below a falling EMA(20) at 1.4242, with RSI(14) near 24 after the roughly 84-pip leg off the week high.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4242, 1.4270, 1.4287
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.4242, near the 38.2% of Tuesday's drop, eases the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 1.4203 week low and the 1.4200 round number confirms a break of Friday's base
Reclaiming the 1.4270 weekly open would put the 1.4287 week high and the lower-highs line back in play
BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside the week's range · RSI 29 · price 1.42157
Lower highs since Friday's 1.4298 spike, price back at the range floor.
Friday's jobs-driven spike to the 1.4298 jobs high has fully unwound. Lower highs followed on Monday (1.4287) and Tuesday (1.4272), and price slipped below the weekly open at 1.4270. The decisive leg came in Tuesday's NY session, from 1.4260 to a 1.4203 week low, as softer US yields eased the dollar. That move retested Friday's pre-jobs lows near 1.4206 and sits just above the 1.4200 round number. Price is below both EMAs, with ema20 near 1.4245 overhead, and RSI(14) near 29 after the selloff.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.42703, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4203 week low and the 1.4200 round number breaks the floor of the jobs high–week low range
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.4245 (38.2% of the jobs high–week low drop) would stall the lower-highs sequence
Return above the 1.4270 weekly open would neutralise Tuesday's breakdown
BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY slide · RSI 24 · price 1.42152
Lower highs since Monday's week high, mid-1.42s range broken lower.
Lower highs have stepped down through Tuesday from Monday's 1.4287 week high. The London-NY transition then drove a 60-pip slide through the 1.4240 monday low to a 1.4203 tue low, fully unwinding Friday's jobs-driven spike back to its 1.4206 pre-jobs base. The move tracks the softer-yields and weaker-oil USD pullback, leaving price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 24, oversold, and the 1.4270 week open well overhead.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4270, 1.4287
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4203 tue low and the 1.4200 round number extends the downtrend below Friday's pre-jobs base
Reclaim of the 1.4240 monday low and the 38.2% fib of the week high-low leg would mark a correction inside the downtrend
Recovery above the 1.4270 week open negates the tue lower highs sequence; the 1.4287 week high sits just above
BoC Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high Monday, Monday low broken; price below EMA20/EMA50.
Monday's 1.4287 high capped below Friday's 1.4298 jobs spike, leaving lower highs, and price stayed below the 1.4270 weekly open. Selling picked up through the London-NY transition and into the NY session today, cutting through the 1.4240 Monday low and erasing roughly 90% of the jobs spike as the USD eased on softer Treasury yields. Price now sits about 6 pips above Friday's 1.4206 pre-jobs low, with RSI(14) near 21 and price roughly 40 pips under the EMA20 near 1.4251.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42398, 1.4251, 1.42703
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4206 pre-jobs low and the 1.4200 round number fully unwinds the jobs spike
Recovery back above the 1.4240 Monday low would mark the break as a false break, with the EMA20 near 1.4251 next
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs stay intact while price holds below the 1.4270 weekly open
Lower highs since Friday's jobs spike, Monday low broken.
Friday's Canada jobs shock (-68.3K) drove the 1.4298 jobs spike. Monday's retest stalled at 1.4287, and Tuesday has printed a sequence of lower highs. In the first hour of NY the pair broke the 1.4240 Monday low and slid to a 1.4222 session low as the USD eased with softer yields. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.4257 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 25 (oversold), about 74% back through Friday's 1.4206–1.4298 jobs rally.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4206, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4257, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4240 Monday low would turn the break into a false break.
Failure to hold the 1.4222 session low exposes the 1.4206 prior low and the 1.4200 round number.
A reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4257 together with the lower highs trendline would undo the sequence since Monday.
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read. The 1.4298 jobs spike remains the ceiling.
13:03 UTC
Pullback from 1.4300, lower highs since Monday · RSI 25 · price 1.42397
Lower highs below 1.4300; testing session low near 61.8% of Friday's jobs spike.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss drove a 92-pip jobs spike from the 1.4206 swing low to 1.4298. Supply capped a second attempt at the 1.4287 week high during Monday's NY session, and lower highs have followed since. Tuesday's London session slide took out the 1.4270 weekly open and the 1.4254 prior close as USD eased on softer yields and oil, leaving price below EMA(20) near 1.4260 and pressing the 1.4238 session low at the 61.8% retracement of the jobs spike, with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4216, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4254, 1.4270, 1.4287
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4238 session low breaks the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 1.4216 thursday low, then the 1.4206 swing low
Recovery above the 1.4254 prior close and EMA(20) near 1.4260 breaks the lower highs line; the 1.4270 weekly open sits above
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; a break of the 1.4287 week high reopens 1.4300
12:02 UTC
Post-spike range, rolling lower · RSI 31 · price 1.42453
Lower high at 1.4287 under the 1.4298 jobs high; price testing Monday low.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs shock drove a 92-pip impulse from the 1.4206 swing low to the 1.4298 jobs high. Since then price has held a 1.4240–1.4298 range, with Monday's NY-session rally capped at 1.4287 for a lower high. Through London today USD/CAD slipped below the 1.4270 weekly open and both EMAs as USD eased on softer yields and oil. It now sits on the Monday low at 1.4240, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the jobs impulse, and RSI(14) is near 31.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4240 monday low and the 61.8% fib breaks the post-jobs range floor and exposes the 1.4206 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4270 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise today's fade; 1.4287 monday high and 1.4298 jobs high cap above
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC today could add intraday volatility
BoC Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 1.4298 jobs high, holding 1.4240–1.4298 range.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss drove the impulse from the 1.4206 swing low to the 1.4298 jobs high. Since then price has held inside that range, and Monday's NY-session rally off the 1.4240 week low stalled at 1.4287 for a lower high below the jobs high. Tuesday has ground lower through Asia and London as US yields and oil eased, slipping beneath EMA(20) and the 1.4270 weekly open toward the 1.4254 Friday close, with RSI(14) near 37 and price between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the jobs impulse.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.4254 Friday close exposes the 1.4240 week low, near the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 1.4240 week low opens a return toward the 1.4206 swing low at the base of the jobs impulse
Hourly close back above the 1.4270 weekly open and EMA(20) breaks the Tuesday lower highs
Rejection again at the 1.4287 Monday high keeps the lower-high sequence below the 1.4298 jobs high intact
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC on Wednesday could materially shift this read
Pennant of lower highs and higher lows after Friday's jobs spike.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss drove a 92-pip NY-session impulse from the 1.4206 week low to the 1.4298 jobs spike high. Since then the pair has compressed into lower highs (1.4287 Monday high, 1.4283 Tuesday) and higher lows (1.4240 Monday low, 1.4256 Tuesday), a pennant inside the jobs spike fib. Tuesday's Asia and London sessions slipped back below the 1.4270 weekly open and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 37 and price sitting just above the 50% fib at 1.4252 as the USD eases off its highs.
Support: 1.42522, 1.42398, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42703, 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4240 Monday low, which is also the 61.8% retrace, breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.4206 week low
Recovery above the 1.4270 weekly open and the lower-highs line near the 1.4287 Monday high reopens the 1.4298 jobs spike high
Holding the 50% fib at 1.4252 keeps the pennant structure intact
Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are likely to resolve the compression
09:04 UTC
Range after jobs spike, fading intraday · RSI 45 · price 1.42586
Lower high under 18m high, higher lows; compressing.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss spiked the pair from the 1.4206 week low to the 18m high at 1.4298. Monday opened with a gap higher, and the NY-session rally stalled at 1.4287 for a lower high. Tuesday's Asia and London sessions have faded back below the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4270 as US yields and oil eased, with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s and the 1.4257 session low sitting between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the Friday spike, leaving a compressing range above the higher lows at 1.4206 and the 1.4240 monday low.
Support: 1.4257, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4257 session low exposes the 1.4240 monday low near the 61.8% retracement of the Friday spike
An H1 close back above the weekly open and EMA(20) at 1.4270 reopens the 1.4287 monday high
A break of the lower-high line and the 1.4298 18m high invalidates the range read; a loss of the higher-low line toward the 1.4206 week low does the same on the downside
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Post-jobs advance, pulling back · RSI 39 · price 1.42629
Higher lows since Monday, lower highs through Tuesday.
Friday's Canada jobs miss (-68.3K vs +7K f/c) drove a ~92-pip impulse from 1.4206 to the 1.4298 jobs high, just shy of the 1.4300 cap. Monday opened with a gap up at the 1.4270 week open. Price filled the gap down to the 1.4240 Monday low, then rebounded into the 1.4287 week high during NY hours while US markets were on holiday. Tuesday's Asia session and London open have drifted back below EMA(20) and the week open as USD eases with yields, leaving price on the 38.2% retracement of the jobs impulse near 1.4263 and RSI(14) slipping toward 39.
Support: 1.42566, 1.42538, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42703, 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4257 tuesday low and 1.4254 prior close would break the higher-low trendline and expose the 50% fib near 1.4252
Failure to hold the 1.4240 monday low (61.8% of the jobs impulse fib) would negate the post-jobs higher-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.4270 week open and EMA(20) reopens the 1.4287 week high and the 1.4298 jobs high below 1.4300
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.4240, lower high at 1.4287, compressing under 1.4300.
Friday's -68.3K Canada jobs miss drove a 92-pip jobs impulse in early NY hours, from the 1.4206 swing low to the 1.4298 friday high, and price was rejected just under the 1.4300 cap. Monday gapped up at the 1.4270 weekly open and slipped to the 1.4240 monday low into London open, which held the 61.8% retrace. The NY rally then stalled at the 1.4287 monday high, leaving a sequence of lower highs. Through Asia and into London, Tuesday has slipped back below EMA(20) near the weekly open. Price is sitting on the 38.2% fib at 1.4263 with RSI(14) near 48 and EMA(50) just underneath, while a firm USD pauses ahead of CPI.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4263 38.2% fib exposes the 1.4240 monday low
Failure to hold the 1.4240 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and reopens the 1.4206 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4270 weekly open and a close above the 1.4287 monday high puts the 1.4298 friday high / 1.4300 cap back in play
Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC today), BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower high under the week high; retracing Friday's jobs spike.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove the pair from the 1.4206 low to the 1.4298 week high, just shy of the 1.4300 cap. That spike faded into the 1.4254 friday close. Monday gapped up to a 1.4270 weekly open, dipped to the 1.4240 monday low near the 61.8% of the jobs spike fib during London, then recovered in NY to a 1.4287 monday high, a lower high under 1.4298. The Asia session has eased back below EMA(20) and the weekly open, with price sitting on the 38.2% retracement near the 1.4261 asian low, RSI(14) around 41 and EMA(50) flat just underneath.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4254 friday close and the 50% retracement exposes the 1.4240 monday low
Reclaim of the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4271 puts the 1.4287 monday high back in play
Close above the 1.4298 week high and 1.4300 breaks the lower-highs line and the repeated cap
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today, BoC's Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could each materially shift this read
Friday's spike to the 1.4298 friday high on the -68.3K Canadian jobs miss met rejection below 1.4300 and faded into the close. Monday's gap up and NY-session rally then stalled at a lower 1.4287 monday high. That leaves converging lower highs against higher lows from the 1.4206 friday low and the 1.4240 monday low. In the Asia session price has slipped back under the EMA(20) near 1.4271, with RSI(14) easing to about 41 and the asia low at 1.4265 (38.2% of Friday's spike) under test.
Support: 1.42645, 1.42398, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4265 asia low exposes the 1.4240 monday low and the 61.8% retracement of Friday's spike
Failure to hold 1.4240 breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.4206 friday low back in play
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.4287 monday high puts the 1.4298 friday high and 1.4300 cap back in focus
Waller today 07:45 UTC and Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC could shift BoC/Fed divergence pricing
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, especially core, could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Sideways after jobs spike, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 1.42646
Converging lower highs and higher lows beneath the 1.4300 cap.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove the week's dominant move in the first hour of NY, a 92-pip impulse from the 1.4206 week low to the 1.4298 week high. Monday's gap-up faded into London, but demand stepped in at the 1.4240 monday low, right on the 61.8% retracement, before the NY session lifted price to a 1.4287 monday high. That high sits below Friday's peak, leaving lower highs over higher lows in a tightening consolidation. Asia drift has pushed price below ema20 (~1.4272) toward ema50 (~1.4261) and the 38.2% level, with RSI(14) easing to ~46 from the low 60s.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4272, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4298 week high and the 1.4300 cap breaks the lower-highs line and the consolidation read
Failure to hold 1.4240 monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.4206 week low
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.4272 would put the 1.4287 monday high back in focus
Fed's Waller today 07:45 UTC and BoC's Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC could shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for resolving the converging range
Higher lows from 1.4206 against lower highs under 1.4298, a tightening range.
USDCAD has built higher lows since Thursday's 1.4206 base. Friday's jobs-shock spike to 1.4298 set the week high, and Monday's gap-up weekly open near 1.4270 left an unfilled gap down to the 1.4254 Friday close. Monday's NY-session rally stalled at 1.4287, a lower high under the 1.4300 cap, and the Asia session has eased price back below the weekly open and EMA(20) toward the 38.2% fib near 1.4263. RSI(14) has cooled to about 50 from the mid-60s, consistent with consolidation inside the 1.4206–1.4298 range ahead of Macklem and US CPI on Wednesday.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4300 cap in play
A gap fill at 1.4254 followed by a break of the 1.4240 monday low (near the 61.8% fib) would break the higher-lows trendline
Fed's Waller today at 07:45 UTC, then Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.4240–1.4298 band, lower high under 1.4300 cap, higher lows intact.
Friday's Canadian jobs shock (-68.3K vs +7K) spiked USDCAD to the jobs high at 1.4298, where it met rejection just below the 1.4300 cap. Price has held a 1.4240–1.4298 band since then. Monday's gap-up faded to the monday low at 1.4240, near the 61.8% of Friday's impulse, before NY hours lifted it to a lower week high at 1.4287; early Asia has eased it back to the weekly open at 1.4270, below the ema20 (1.4273) and above the ema50 (1.4264), with RSI(14) slipping from about 60 to 45. The higher-lows trendline from Friday's 1.4206 low now runs near 1.4250, just under the prior close at 1.4254.
Support: 1.42637, 1.42538, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42725, 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 jobs high clears the 1.4300 cap and breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the ema50 at 1.4264 exposes the prior close at 1.4254 and the higher-lows trendline near 1.4250
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.4240 (61.8% fib) undercuts the higher-low structure since Friday
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC), then Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Recovering uptrend, capped below jobs high · RSI 60 · price 1.42768
Higher lows since Friday, lower high under 1.4298.
Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove a 92-pip impulse from the 1.4206 friday low to the 1.4298 jobs high. Monday's London-open dip to 1.4240 (monday low) held the 61.8% fib and retested Friday's pre-data breakout area, extending the higher lows. The NY session lifted price to 1.4287 (monday high), a lower high under the jobs high, and Asia is consolidating just above EMA(20) and the weekly open near 1.4270–1.4275 with RSI(14) around 60.
Support: 1.42703, 1.42398, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.42982
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 jobs high breaks the lower-high sequence and tests the ~1.4300 18-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4270 weekly open and EMA(20) shifts focus back to the 1.4240 monday low
A break below the 1.4240 monday low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.4206 friday low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next USD risk, ahead of Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC)
Higher low 1.4240 vs 1.4206; lower high 1.4287 vs 1.4298.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4206–1.4298 range since Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked it to the 1.4298 prior high at the NY open. Monday's London-morning dip held at 1.4240, a higher low, and USD strength into CPI week lifted the pair to a 1.4287 week high during NY hours. Price now sits in a tight Asian range above EMA(20), which lines up with the 1.4270 weekly open. RSI(14) has eased to ~59 as highs flatten just under the prior high.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4240, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4298 prior high breaks the range top and the lower-highs line, opening the 1.4300 area
Loss of the 1.4270 weekly open and EMA(20), the 38.2% of Monday's leg, shifts focus to the 1.4240 week low
Failure to hold the 1.4240 week low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4206 friday low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC), BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read