USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a tight range · RSI 56 · price 1.42198
Post-NY consolidation 1.4206–1.4221 after London/NY lower-low sequence.
London broke below the Asian range late morning and NY extended the slide to a 1.4203 session low as USD faded into CPI. Since then price has held a 1.4206 higher low and a 1.4213 pivot low, and early Asia is pressing the 1.4221 range top, near the 23.6% fib of the day's drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.42131, 1.42057, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42206, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4221 range top opens the 1.4234 breakdown pivot, which aligns with the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 1.4213 pivot low and the 1.4206 higher low puts the 1.4203 session low back in play
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could break the tight range in either direction
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows through London/NY, then a tight 8h consolidation.
USDCAD slid about 70 pips through London and NY as the USD pulled back ahead of CPI, printing a session low at 1.4203 at 15:00 UTC. Since then price has held a tight 1.4213–1.4221 consolidation into early Asia, now pressing the range top at the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4229, 1.4238
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4221 range top opens the fib 38.2 at 1.4229 and the 1.4238 breakdown shelf from midday.
A loss of the 1.4213 range low exposes the 1.4203 session low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence.
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.42187
Lower-high/lower-low leg to 1.4203, now a tight 1.4206–1.4220 range.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.4261 and the slide ran into the first hours of NY. Price bottomed at the 1.4203 day low as USD eased ahead of Wednesday's US CPI and softer crude weighed. Since then the pair has compressed under the 1.4220 range top, with a higher low at 1.4206 into the Asia session open; volatility is thin at ~3 pips ATR.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42252, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top brings the 38.2% fib at 1.4225 and the 1.4234 NY high into play
Loss of the 1.4206 higher low and the 1.4203 day low exposes the 1.42 round number
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read, with US CPI at 12:30 UTC to follow
Lower highs through London and NY into the 1.4203 low, tight range since.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4283 Asian high to a 1.4203 NY low as the USD retreated ahead of CPI and softer crude weighed on CAD. Since the NY low the pair has held a 1.4206–1.4220 range, with a higher low at 1.4206 and early Asia session trade now pressing the range top. That range top sits near the 23.6% retracement of the day's decline, and ATR has compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4234 swing high, the 38.2% retracement of the day's decline
Failure to hold the 1.4213 pivot low puts the 1.4203 ny low back in focus; a break below it extends the lower-low chain
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could break the range in either direction, ahead of US CPI at 12:30 UTC
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 53 · price 1.42179
Lower highs from the Asia high to the 1.4203 NY low, now a tight 1.4206–1.4220 box with a marginal higher low.
USDCAD slid about 80 pips from the 1.4283 Asia high to a 1.4203 NY low as the USD pulled back ahead of CPI. The pair broke the Asian range during London and extended after the NY open. Since then it has compressed between the 1.4206 higher low and a 1.4220 range top, which sits at the 23.6% fib and near EMA50; thin rollover trade is holding above the 1.4213 rollover low.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4206, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top and 1.4234 ny pivot breaks the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 1.4206 higher low exposes the 1.4203 ny low and resumes the downtrend
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; flat 1.4203–1.4220 range since the NY low, with a marginal higher low.
USD/CAD fell about 80 pips off the 1.4283 Asian high as USD softened into CPI and crude eased. London broke the Asian low and NY extended to a 1.4203 session low. Since then price has held a 1.4203–1.4220 range into the quiet Asia open, with a higher low at 1.4206 and the range top capping five times, just above the 23.6% fib of the NY sell-off.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4206, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4234 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off
Loss of the 1.4213 late low, then the 1.4206 higher low, puts the 1.4203 session low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Retaking the 1.4255 London low would neutralise the day's breakdown
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could shift CAD before London; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this range
Post-NY range 1.4203–1.4220 after a London break of the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.4261, and NY extended the drop to the 1.4203 NY low as the USD faded on lower crude and pre-CPI caution. Since then price has held a tight 1.4203–1.4220 consolidation, with the range top capping four times. Early Asia trade sits mid-range just under EMA20, RSI near 47, and the bounce has retraced less than a quarter of the drop.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4255
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4213 late low exposes the 1.4203 NY low; a close below that resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top ends the consolidation read and opens the 1.4255 london base, where the London shelf broke
BoC Macklem speaks at 06:05 UTC (~8h) and could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~14h) is the dominant USD driver for this range
Lower highs and lows through London and NY; tight post-NY range above day low.
USDCAD fell about 80 pips from the 1.4283 Asian high. Price lost the 1.4255 London low before noon, then extended through NY to a 1.4203 day low as the USD softened into CPI and crude eased. Since then it has held a tight 1.4206–1.4220 consolidation between range low and range top, with price sitting on a flat EMA20, RSI(14) near 49, and only a shallow retrace of the day decline fib.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4234 ny pivot, near the 9-day EMA at 1.4236
Break of the 1.4206 range low and 1.4203 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC, inside the next 8h, could materially shift this read
US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the dominant event risk for the pair
Recovery back above the 1.4255 london low would neutralise the day's breakdown
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a post-NY consolidation · RSI 56 · price 1.42182
Lower highs from the Asian range high, tight 1.4205–1.4220 box since the 1.4203 day low.
USDCAD slid about 80 pips from the 1.4283 Asian range high as the dollar eased on lower crude and yields ahead of US CPI. NY broke through the 1.4255 london low and printed a 1.4203 day low. After NY close it has compressed between a 1.4206 higher low and the 1.4220 range top, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4234 lower high, which sits at the 38.2% retracement of the day decline
Failure to hold the 1.4206 higher low and the 1.4203 day low resumes the downtrend sequence
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows into 1.4203, then 1.4206–1.4220 range.
USDCAD bled about 80 pips from the Asian high near 1.4283 through London and NY. The selling followed a softer USD into CPI and printed a session low at 1.4203 after a lower high at 1.4234. Since then price has held a 1.4206–1.4220 range, capped below the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg, and late-session ranges have shrunk to around 4 pips.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42251, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4225 38.2% fib and the 1.4234 lower high
Break of the 1.4206 range low and the 1.4203 session low resumes the downtrend toward 1.4200
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 48 · price 1.42146
Lower highs from London; post-low range 1.4203–1.4220.
USD/CAD slipped from the Asian range (1.4265–1.4283), broke the 1.4255 london low at the London-NY transition and ran to a 1.4203 session low as the USD eased with yields ahead of CPI. Since then it has held a tight 1.4203–1.4220 consolidation, with a late-NY dip stalling above the 1.4210 ny pullback low. RSI(14) is near 48 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 4 pips into the Asia open.
Support: 1.4210, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42344, 1.42547
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 38.2% fib of the drop near 1.4229 and the 1.4234 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4210 ny pullback low exposes the 1.4203 session low; a break there extends the downtrend
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight 1.4214–1.4220 band above the session low.
USD/CAD fell about 80 pips from the 1.4283 Asian high as USD eased ahead of CPI. London broke the Asian range and NY extended the drop to a 1.4203 session low at 15:00 UTC. Late NY has compressed into a range floor/top band of 1.4214–1.4220, with a higher low at 1.4206. The range top sits on the 23.6% retracement of the day decline, price is pinned to EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4214, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top and 23.6% fib opens the 1.4234 NY swing high, then the 1.4255 London low
Break of the 1.4203 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.4200 handle
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into late NY · RSI 51 · price 1.42167
Lower highs from Asia; 15-pip range above the session low.
USDCAD bled about 80 pips from the 1.4283 Asian high to a 1.4203 session low during NY hours as the USD paused ahead of CPI, with a sharp leg lower around 11:30 UTC breaking the London lows. Since then price has been boxed between 1.4206 and a range top at 1.4220, which has capped three times, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 51.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top shifts focus to the 1.4234 swing high and the 38.2% fib of the day's decline near 1.4233
Break below the 1.4203 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; higher lows forming under a flat 1.4220 cap.
London broke the asian low at 1.4261 and NY extended the decline to a 1.4203 session low as USD longs were trimmed ahead of CPI. Since then price has compressed between the 1.4214 range low and the 1.4220 range top, which sits on the 23.6% retrace of the day's fall. Successive higher lows at 1.4203, 1.4206 and 1.4214 are building under that flat cap.
Support: 1.4214, 1.4206, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4234 ny pivot
Break of the 1.4206 higher low and the 1.4203 session low would resume the downtrend
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could reset the range
Tight range 1.4203–1.4220 after London/NY sell-off.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4261 and NY extended the slide to a 1.4203 day low as USD eased into CPI. Since 15:00 UTC price has compressed under the 1.4220 range top, with an 18:00 UTC dip holding a higher low at 1.4206. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and the 23.6% fib of the Asian-high sell-off sits just overhead.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42344, 1.42608
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top and 23.6% fib opens the 1.4234 swing high
Break of the 1.4206 higher low and 1.4203 day low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC could shift the range read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the next session
Lower highs from Asian range into 1.4203 low; 17-pip box since 15:00 UTC.
USD/CAD slipped through the 1.4261–1.4283 Asian range during London and extended in NY as USD eased into Wednesday's CPI and softer crude capped CAD's bounce, bottoming at the 1.4203 session low at 15:00 UTC. Since then price has held a tight 1.4203–1.4220 box with a higher low at 1.4206 and the range top sitting on the 23.6% fib; RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price hugs the EMA20.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42344, 1.4245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top exposes the 1.4234 lower high and the 1.4245 NY high
Failure below the 1.4206 higher low and 1.4203 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lows into NY; tight 1.4206–1.4220 consolidation since.
USDCAD extended its drop from 1.4271 below the Asian range low through late London and the NY open. The slide broke the 1.4255 london low and the 1.4245 breakdown shelf, printing a session low at 1.4203 just above the 1.4200 round number as USD longs trimmed ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since then price has compressed after London close below EMA20, putting in a higher low at 1.4206 but capped at the 1.4220 range top, RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.4245, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top shifts focus to the 1.4245 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 1.4206 higher low and 1.4203 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4255 london low would negate the intraday downtrend read
Macklem at 06:05 UTC Wed and US CPI later Wed could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; late-NY compression above session low.
USD/CAD broke below the 1.4261–1.4283 Asian range at London open and ground lower through NY to a 1.4203 session low as the USD pulled back ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Late NY has compressed into 1.4205–1.4220. The 18:00 UTC dip held just above the session low, and the 23.6% fib of the decline caps the range top.
Support: 1.4204, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens a retrace toward the 1.4255 london base
Break of the 1.4204 session low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.4200 round number
Macklem (06:05 UTC Wed) and US CPI (12:30 UTC Wed) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia into NY, now a tight base above the day low.
USDCAD broke the Asian range low near 1.4261 in London and extended through NY to a 1.4203 day low, in line with the softer USD as yields dipped ahead of US CPI. Since 15:00 UTC it has based in a 1.4203–1.4220 band. The 18:00 UTC retest held 1.4206 for a higher low, and the bounce is capped under the range top, short of the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42294, 1.4245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 38.2% fib at 1.4229, then the 1.4245 breakdown area
Loss of the 1.4206 higher low and the 1.4203 day low exposes the 1.4200 round number
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 45 · price 1.42146
Lower highs from London, tight base above session low.
London broke the 1.4261 Asian range low, and NY extended the slide to a 1.4203 session low as the USD eased on lower yields ahead of CPI. Since then price has been boxed between 1.4203 and the 1.4220 range top. The 18:00 UTC dip held a higher low at 1.4206, and price sits just under the 23.6% fib of the London-NY drop.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4234 lower high and the 38.2% fib near 1.4227
Break below the 1.4203 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.4200 round figure
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia into NY; post-low range 1.4205–1.4220 with a higher low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.4261, and NY extended the slide to a 1.4203 session low as USD eased ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Since then price has held a tight 1.4205–1.4220 band, with the late-NY dip stopping at a 1.4206 higher low just under EMA20.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high breaks the post-low range and opens the 1.4255 london low area
Failure to hold the 1.4206 higher low and the 1.4203 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.4200 round number
BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London range break; NY low holding.
USD/CAD broke below the 1.4255–1.4280 Asian/London range late in the London session and printed lower highs through NY, as the softer dollar and pre-CPI squaring pulled the pair to a session low of 1.4203, just above the 1.42 round number. The bounce stalled at 1.4220, roughly the 50–61.8% retrace of the 1.4234 lower high to session low leg. Late NY saw a fresh rejection there, with price back near 1.4208.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence; above the 1.4234 lower high negates the intraday downtrend
Close below the 1.4203 session low exposes the 1.42 round number
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London into NY, tight base since 15:00 UTC.
USDCAD broke the Asian range low at 1.4261 early in London and extended the slide through NY to a session low of 1.4203. The move came as softer yields and oil weighed on USD ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Since then price has based in a 1.4210–1.4220 box, capped by the 1.4220 bounce high and sitting near the 23.6% retrace of the NY leg, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.42102, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high opens the 38.2% retrace near 1.4225 and the 1.4234 lower high
Loss of the 1.4210 pullback low exposes the 1.4203 session low and the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4255 london low would undo the London–NY breakdown read
BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian range; tight 1.4210–1.4220 range after the NY leg low.
London broke below the 1.4261 Asian range low. The NY leg then extended the slide to a 1.4203 session low as USD eased with Treasury yields ahead of Wednesday's CPI, with softer crude also weighing on CAD. After London close, price is holding a tight range between the 1.4210 range low and the 1.4220 bounce high, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.4210, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42344, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high opens the 1.4234 NY lower hi, which sits near the 50% retrace of the NY leg
Failure to hold the 1.4210 range low exposes the 1.4203 session low and the 1.4200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.4255 London low would negate the session's lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, now basing above the NY low.
London broke below the 1.4261 Asian range low and the 1.4255 London base gave way before NY, as USD eased on softer Treasury yields. The decline printed an NY low at 1.4203. The bounce stalled at 1.4220, below the 1.4234 lower high, and price is now in a tight 1.4210–1.4220 band after London close.
Support: 1.4210, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high would open a retest of the 1.4234 lower high and the fib 38.2% near 1.4225
Failure to hold the 1.4210 pullback low exposes the 1.4203 NY low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4255 London base would invalidate the session downtrend read
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC Wed could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Lower highs and lower lows since London range break; tight post-bounce consolidation.
The Asian range of 1.4261–1.4283 gave way early in London, and the london low near 1.4255 broke during the London-NY transition as softer Treasury yields pulled USD off its highs. The slide printed a session low at 1.4203 before a bounce stalled at the 1.4220 bounce high. Price is now compressing between the 1.4210 pullback low and that cap late in NY, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.42102, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline and targets the 1.4234 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the NY leg
Loss of the 1.4210 pullback low and then the 1.4203 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 1.4255 london low would negate the range-break read
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; Macklem at 06:05 UTC Wed and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed are the next material risks
Lower highs from the Asian range; tight base 1.4210–1.4220.
USDCAD broke below the 1.4261–1.4283 Asian range in London and kept printing lower highs into a 1.4203 session low mid-NY, with the USD easing on softer yields. Since London close it has held a higher low at 1.4210 under the 1.4220 bounce high, which is also the 23.6% fib of the 1.4272–1.4203 leg. Price is pressing against the descending trendline from 1.4260, and RSI(14) has recovered to about 41.
Support: 1.4210, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high clears the descending trendline and fib 23.6%; the 1.4234 swing high is the next lower-high to test
Loss of the 1.4210 higher low and the 1.4203 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; Macklem at 06:05 UTC Wed is the overnight repricing risk for CAD
Lower highs and lower lows since London; post-low bounce capped at 1.4220.
USDCAD broke the 1.4261 Asian low in London and slid through NY to a 1.4203 session low as softer Treasury yields pulled the dollar back. The bounce stalled at a 1.4220 lower high, a rejection at the descending trendline, and price is drifting near 1.4213 after London close with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.4234 swing high is next
Loss of the 1.4203 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.4261 Asian low would undo the London break
Macklem speech Wed 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI follows at 12:30 UTC
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 33 · price 1.42108
Lower highs and lower lows since the London low broke; capped below 1.4220.
USDCAD broke the 1.4255 London low late in London as the dollar eased on softer yields, then stepped lower through NY to a 1.4203 session low. The 1.4220 bounce high was rejected and price is drifting back toward the lows after London close.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 bounce high and then the 1.4234 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4203 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4255 London low would mark the break as a false break
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, then Macklem (06:05 UTC) and US CPI (12:30 UTC) on Wed could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; London range broken, bounce off session low.
Price slid from the Asian range near 1.4283. A range break below the london low at 1.4255 late in London accelerated the move, and the NY session extended it to a 1.4203 session low as USD eased on softer yields. The bounce from that low stalled at the 1.4220 bounce high under the lower highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4203 session low and 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence and points to a 1.4255 london low retest
Pullback toward the fib 38.2% near 1.4225 is the first test of the trendline
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; BoC Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, first bounce off lows · RSI 34 · price 1.42152
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke; bounce capped at 1.4220.
USDCAD broke below the Asian range (1.4261–1.4283) in London, held a 1.4255–1.4266 shelf, then lost the London low late in the morning as US yields and the dollar eased, with NY extending to a 1.4203 session low. Into London close, the first bounce stalled at 1.4220, inside the lower part of the fib of the selloff and below the 1.4234 lower high, with RSI(14) lifting from the low 30s.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42201, 1.42344, 1.42548
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and puts the 50% fib of the selloff in play
Failure at the 1.4220 bounce high and a break of the 1.4203 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Macklem speaks Wed 06:05 UTC, and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 1.4255 london low would neutralise the post-London breakdown
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the lows · RSI 19 · price 1.42043
Lower highs and lower lows since the London low gave way; no base yet.
Price slipped under the Asian range, then broke the 1.4255 London low late morning. NY extended the slide to a 1.4203 session low, with the 1.4234 lower high capping the only real bounce as softer US yields weighed on USD ahead of CPI. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold, with price pressing the 1.4200 round number late in the London-NY overlap.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42344, 1.4255
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the NY descending sequence; the 50% retracement of the breakdown leg sits at the same area
Recovery back above the 1.4255 London low would mark the break as a false break
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially reset this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; London floor broken.
USDCAD has printed lower highs all day. It broke the 1.4255 london low around 11:30 UTC and extended in NY to a 1.4211 session low as softer US yields and the USD dip weighed. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold, with price pinned just above the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.4200 round number extends the downtrend; holding the 1.4211 session low points to consolidation
Reclaim of the 1.4255 london low would neutralise the breakdown read
Macklem speaks Wed 06:05 UTC; a push-back on hike pricing could reverse CAD gains
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; core vs 0.2% could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but not yet basing · RSI 24 · price 1.42135
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-London break of the range low.
USDCAD broke the London range low at 1.4255 late in the session. It then extended through NY to a session low at 1.4211 as the USD eased on softer yields and oil. Successive lower highs at 1.4245 (swing high) and 1.4234 (lower high) cap the move, and RSI(14) near 24 is stretched with no base yet in place mid-NY.
Support: 1.42113, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42344, 1.4245, 1.42548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4255 range low would mark the break as a false break
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since London open; double test of 1.4222.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.4261, and the 1.4255 london base gave way late morning as USD eased with Treasury yields. The decline extended a lower-high chain to a 1.4222 session low. Early NY bounced to 1.4234, was capped there, and is now back testing 1.4222, with RSI(14) near 25 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4245, 1.4255
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4222 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number.
A recovery through the 1.4234 bounce high and the 1.4245 breakdown level (near 50% of the London leg fib) breaks the descending trendline read; the 1.4255 london base sits above.
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts that could reset this structure.
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended into NY · RSI 29 · price 1.42264
Lower highs below broken London floor, holding near session low.
London broke the 1.4255 floor of the overnight range at 11:30 UTC, and NY extended the slide to a 1.4222 session low as the dollar eased with Treasury yields. Lower highs at 1.4245 and 1.4234 keep the descending trendline intact. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4234 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Recovery back above the 1.4255 london floor would mark the breakdown as a false break
Close below the 1.4222 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended into NY · RSI 28 · price 1.42289
Lower highs and lower lows after London base at 1.4255 gave way.
USD/CAD slipped under the Asian range low at London open, then broke the 1.4255 london floor late morning as the USD eased off its highs. It extended to a 1.4222 session low in the first hour of NY. The bounce has stalled at the 1.4232 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib of the breakdown leg near 1.4237, with RSI(14) near 28 but not at an extreme.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4255 london floor invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.4222 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Rejection at the 1.4232 bounce high or the 38.2% fib at 1.4237 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; London range broken to the downside.
USDCAD broke the 1.4255 London low at 11:30 UTC and extended through the first hour of NY to a 1.4222 session low, as USD eased with softer yields and oil. RSI(14) is near 27 after the 13:45 bounce off the low. The 1.4238 breakdown pivot, near the 38.2% fib of the selloff, sits overhead.
Support: 1.4222, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4222 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
M15 close back above the 1.4238 breakdown pivot and 38.2% fib (~1.4241) would stall the downtrend read
Recovery above the 1.4255 London low invalidates the range break
US Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is a near-term risk. Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into early NY · RSI 25 · price 1.42297
Lower highs since 1.4272; European range floor broken late London.
USD/CAD slipped below the Asian low at 1.4265 at London open and broke the 1.4255 london low around 11:30 UTC, in line with the softer USD and lower yields in the digest. The drop extended to a 1.4225 session low early in NY. Price is now consolidating just above it, below the 1.4240 breakdown shelf, with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 1.4225, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4255, 1.4265
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 1.4240 breakdown shelf (38.2% fib) would put the 1.4255 london low back in play as a retest
Failure to hold the 1.4225 session low leaves the 1.4200 round number as the next reference
Lower-high trendline from 1.4272 caps the move while price stays under it
Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into NY · RSI 23 · price 1.42313
Lower highs since Asia; London range floor broken, fresh 24h lows.
USD/CAD gave up the 1.4255–1.4266 London range floor late in London, and NY extended the drop to a fresh session low at 1.4231 as softer yields kept USD on the back foot. Lower highs from the 1.4272 lower high are intact, RSI(14) ~23 is oversold, and the 1.4245 bounce high is the first cap.
Support: 1.42313, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.42548, 1.42715
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4231 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
M15 close back above the 1.4255 range floor turns the break into a false break
A close above the lower-highs trendline (near 1.4256) ends the intraday downtrend read
US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) and Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; late-London range break, early-NY consolidation.
Price broke below the Asian low at 1.4261 early in London, then lost the 1.4255 London base at 11:30 UTC on a 12-pip bar as softer yields eased the USD. It printed a 1.4238 session low early in the NY session and is now consolidating under the 1.4245 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 27 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.42379, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.42548, 1.42608
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4255 london base would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4238 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
A move through the 1.4245 bounce high would test the fib 50% near 1.4255
Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is minor; Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next material risks
Lower highs since 1.4272, Asian range broken lower.
London broke the 1.4261 Asian low, then an 11-pip bar late in the European morning cut through the 1.4255 London base to a 1.4238 session low into the NY open, as USD eased with softer yields. The bounce is capped at the 1.4245 bounce high, RSI(14) is near 27 and the lower-highs line from 1.4272 is intact.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.4255, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4255 london base, also the 50% retrace of the drop, would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4238 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4261 asian low would break the lower-highs sequence
BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) is the next scheduled CAD risk, with US CPI to follow
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.42418
Lower-high/lower-low chain; London range floor broken pre-NY.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4283 Asian high. Late in the London session, around 11:30 UTC, price broke the 1.4255 range floor as USD eased off 18-month highs on softer yields. It is holding just above the 1.4238 session low into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 31, and the 50% fib of the London leg sits at the old range floor.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4255, 1.4266, 1.4283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4255 range floor would mark the break as a false break and put the 1.4266 range top back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4238 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Close above the descending trendline from the 06:15 UTC high breaks the lower-high sequence
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY open · RSI 28 · price 1.42412
Lower highs since 1.4271; London base at 1.4255 broken.
London capped every bounce on a line of lower highs from the 1.4271 swing high. The 1.4255 floor gave way at 11:15 UTC and price ran to a 1.4238 session low ahead of NY open, in step with the broader USD pullback on softer yields and oil. RSI(14) near 28 is stretched, and the 38.2% retrace of the 1.4287–1.4238 drop sits right at the broken floor.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4255, 1.4271
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4255 broken floor (38.2% retrace) would turn the range break into a false break
A break below the 1.4238 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 1.4200 round number next
A close above the lower-highs line and the 1.4271 swing high negates the intraday downtrend
US data at 14:00 UTC and Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Lower highs since Asia; London range floor broken late London.
A chain of lower highs from the Asian session capped London inside a 1.4255–1.4269 range. Late in London the 1.4255 range floor gave way, also clearing yesterday's NY-session low, and price now sits at the session low near 1.4240 with RSI(14) at 26. The slide fits the softer USD as Treasury yields eased, despite CAD weakness on lower oil.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4255, 1.4269
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.4240 session low early in the NY session; a break exposes the 1.4200 round number
M15 close back above the 1.4255 range floor turns the break into a false break
Close above the lower highs trendline (~1.4261) and the 1.4269 London high negates the intraday downtrend
US Existing Home Sales 14:00 UTC and the Budget Statement 18:00 UTC are the only scheduled US data left today
Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 29 · price 1.42445
London floor broken late London, lower-high chain intact.
USD/CAD has carved lower highs from the 1.4271 London high under a descending trendline. Late in London it broke the 1.4255 London floor after four holds and printed a 1.4242 day low, as softer US yields pulled USD off its highs. RSI(14) sits near 29 with ATR around 4.5 pips heading into the NY open.
Support: 1.4242, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4255, 1.4271, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4255 london floor marks a false break of the range
A close above the descending trendline near 1.4260, also the 38.2% fib of the 24h high-low move, ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4242 day low leaves the 1.4200 round number as the next marked level
A break above the 1.4271 london high would put the 1.4287 24h high back in view
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift this read; Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the bigger risks
Lower highs through London, 1.4255 range floor broken.
London held a tight 1.4255–1.4265 range below the 1.4261 asian low, with lower highs pressing on a 1.4255 range floor tested four times. The 11:30 UTC range break took price to a 1.4245 session low as USD eased on softer yields. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR(14) is about 4.5 pips late in London.
Support: 1.4245, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4255, 1.4261, 1.4283
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4255 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Reclaiming the 1.4261 asian low and the lower highs line (~1.4258) negates the London downtrend
Extension below the 1.4245 session low leaves the 1.4200 round number as the next reference
A recovery through the 1.4283 asian high would unwind the day's decline structure
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and the NY open could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through London · RSI 39 · price 1.42558
Lower highs from 1.4272, pressing prior low.
London has ground lower in a chain of lower highs from 1.4272. Late-London price is now pressing yesterday's 1.4254 prior low with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR(14) about 4.3 pips. The yield-led USD dip is outweighing CAD drag from softer oil, which keeps the descent shallow.
Support: 1.42543, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.42603, 1.42658
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4250 round number
Close above the 1.4260 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Reclaim of the 1.4266 swing high negates the London lower-high sequence
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and NY open could shift this read; Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) is the next CAD risk
London broke below the 1.4261 Asian low and has stalled at the 1.4255 London low, which matches Monday's low. A falling line of lower highs from 00:30 UTC has capped every bounce as softer US yields and oil weigh. RSI(14) sits near 46 and ATR has compressed to about 4 pips into the NY open.
Support: 1.4255, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4266, 1.4272
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4261 asian low and the 1.4266 london high breaks the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 1.4255 london low exposes the 1.4250 round number
A move through the 1.4272 swing high negates the intraday lower-high sequence
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift this read; Macklem speaks Wed 06:05 UTC
Lower highs since London open, lows compressing at 1.4255.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4261, which has since capped retests, and ground lower from the 1.4269 session high through a lower high at 1.4266 as USD eased on softer Treasury yields. Lows at 1.4257/1.4256/1.4255 are compressing into yesterday's 1.4254 prior low, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR shrinking to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.42545, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4266, 1.42689
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4250 round number
Close back above the 1.4261 Asian low and the descending trendline negates the range break
Recovery through the 1.4266 lower high and 1.4269 session high resets London structure
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could break the current compression
Pre-CPI positioning ahead of Wednesday's US CPI may keep ranges tight
Lower highs since London open, pressing prior-day low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4262 and has stepped lower in a chain of lower highs under the downtrend line. Price is now pressing yesterday's prior low at 1.4254 as easing US yields and oil take some heat out of the USD. RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4 pips point to a slow grind, not an impulse.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4266
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 prior low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4250 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4262 Asian low turns the London break into a false break; above the 1.4266 lower high the downtrend line is invalidated
NY open and ADP at 12:15 UTC could expand the range. Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the larger risks to this read
USDCAD has faded from the 1.4287 day high as the USD eased with yields and oil. London broke below the Asian low at 1.4261, and lower highs off the 1.4271 swing high and 1.4266 London high now have price pressing the prior low at 1.4254. RSI(14) is near 37, not oversold, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4266, 1.4271, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4250 round number
M15 close above the 1.4266 london high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain; the 1.4271 swing high sits at the 50% fib
US ADP 4-week avg 12:15 UTC and Existing Home Sales 14:00 UTC could jolt the NY open; Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the larger risks
Lower highs since 06:30 UTC; London broke below the Asian range and is pressing the prior low.
Monday's NY rally to 1.4287 has fully unwound as USD eases with yields. London broke the Asian low near 1.4265 and is now retesting the prior low at 1.4254, with RSI(14) near 36 and lower highs capped under the trendline. Downside follow-through is shallow, with each new low only a pip or two below the last.
Support: 1.42545, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.42645, 1.42715
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 prior low opens the 1.4250 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4262 lower high and the trendline undercuts the downtrend read
Back above the 1.4265 asian low turns the London break into a false break
Swing high at 1.4272 marks the 61.8% retrace of the London leg
US ADP 12:15 UTC and the NY open could extend the session range; CPI Wed keeps follow-through cautious
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 36 · price 1.42565
Lower highs since yesterday's NY high; London pinned to 1.4256-1.4266.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since yesterday's 1.4287 NY high, with London capping rallies at the 1.4266 lower high and pressing the 1.4256 London low as USD eases with yields ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Price sits just above the 1.4254 prior low from yesterday's session, RSI(14) near 36 and ATR about 5 pips.
Support: 1.42557, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42658, 1.42715, 1.42826
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 prior low extends the lower-low chain past the London low
Close above the 1.4266 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.4271 early london high is next
1.4283 Asian high caps today's session range; reclaiming it would undo the decline fib read
ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could expand the narrow London range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk
Lower highs from 1.4287; London ranging 1.4256–1.4266 below the Asian low.
The Asia session leg down from the 1.4283 Asian high carried into London, which broke the 1.4261 Asian low and has since held a tight 1.4256–1.4266 band. The pullback in Treasury yields after the US holiday has trimmed USD, and the descending line of lower highs from the 1.4287 NY high stays intact; RSI(14) ~39, with the prior low at 1.4254 just under the London low.
Support: 1.42557, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42658, 1.42715, 1.42828
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.4266 London high and the 1.4271 Asia pivot breaks the descending line and neutralises the leg lower
Rebound toward the 1.4283 Asian high would shift the read back to range
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC during the NY session; BoC Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the larger risk events
09:32 UTC
Downtrend from Monday high, flattening in London · RSI 43 · price 1.42618
Lower highs since 1.4287; London range 1.4256–1.4266 above Monday low.
USD/CAD has bled lower from Monday's NY-session prior high at 1.4287 as Tuesday's softer yields and oil trimmed the USD bid, and London broke the Asian low near 1.4261. Since then price has been held in a tight 1.4256–1.4266 band, with the london low just above the monday low at 1.4254 and lower highs capping each bounce below the range top.
Support: 1.42557, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42658, 1.42715, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4266 range top and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.4272 swing high back in play
Recovery toward the prior high at 1.4287 would retrace the full selloff fib
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC during NY hours could break the London range
Asian range broken lower; London pressing Monday low.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4283 Asian high as the dollar gave back part of Monday's move on easing yields and oil. London broke the Asian range low at 1.4261, and a lower high at 1.4266 is now capping price. The session low at 1.4256 sits just above the Monday low at 1.4254, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.42557, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42658, 1.42715, 1.42826
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 Monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.4271 London high, near the fib 50%, negates the London breakdown
Second-tier US ADP at 12:15 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC are the larger risks to this read
09:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Monday NY · RSI 39 · price 1.42583
LH/LL chain; London broke the Asian low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY peak at 1.4287. London pushed below the Asian low to a 1.4257 london low as the dollar gave back part of Monday's gains. Two hours into London, price sits near that low with RSI(14) ~39, and the lower highs line is capping bounces at the 1.4266 lower high.
Support: 1.42566, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42658, 1.42715
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4257 london low exposes the 1.4254 monday low
Reclaim of the 1.4272 pre-ldn high breaks the lower highs chain
ADP (12:15 UTC) is second-tier; Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia; London range 1.4257–1.4265 above prior-day low.
USD gave back part of Monday's gains as yields and oil eased. USDCAD bled from the 1.4283 Asian high, and London extended to a 1.4257 session low, just above the 1.4254 prior-day low. Price is now compressing in a 1.4257–1.4265 London range under a descending trendline of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.42566, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42654, 1.42715, 1.42826
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4265 london high and the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London leg (1.4267) tests the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4271 asia pivot
Break of the 1.4257 session low exposes the 1.4254 prior-day low; holding it keeps the London range intact
Asian high at 1.4283 caps the day; reclaiming the asia pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
NY open with second-tier ADP (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC); US CPI Wednesday 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday NY peak · RSI 39 · price 1.42599
Lower highs and lower lows; London broke below the Asian range low.
Lower highs since the 1.4287 Monday NY high. Asia drifted lower and London broke the asian low at 1.4261, printing a london low at 1.4257 as USD eased on softer Treasury yields. Price is holding just above Monday's prior low at 1.4254, with RSI(14) at 39 and not at an extreme.
Support: 1.42566, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42715, 1.42826
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4261 would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the prior low at 1.4254 extends the lower-low sequence
The descending trendline and 38.2% fib near 1.4268 sit just below the pre-ldn high at 1.4272; a close above both reopens the asian high at 1.4283
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) in NY hours could shift this read
08:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 1.42633
Lower highs from 1.4287 NY high; London swept Asian low.
Lower highs have stacked from the 1.4287 prior high through Asia as softer US yields eased the USD. London open swept the Asian low near 1.4261 to a 1.4257 London low and recovered to 1.4263, still below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.4257, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4272, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4272 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.4283 asian high back in view, with the 1.4287 prior high beyond
Failure to hold the 1.4257 London low exposes the 1.4254 prior low from yesterday's NY session
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC during NY hours could jolt the session range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
07:47 UTC
Downtrend from NY high, lower highs intact · RSI 40 · price 1.42611
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4287; Asian range low broken at London open.
USDCAD has made lower highs since yesterday's 1.4287 NY high. London open broke the 1.4261 Asian low and printed a 1.4257 London low, just above the 1.4254 prior low. Softer US yields are trimming the USD bid, and RSI(14) near 40 is not stretched.
Support: 1.42566, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42613, 1.42715, 1.42826
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4261 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4254 prior low extends the lower-low chain from the NY high
A close above the falling trendline and the 1.4272 pre-London high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4283 Asian high next; the 38.2% retrace of the NY high leg sits near 1.4268
Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) and the ADP 4-wk average (12:15 UTC) could shift the USD leg ahead of Wednesday's 12:30 UTC CPI
Asian lower highs, now basing in a 1.4261–1.4272 box.
Asia gave back most of Monday's NY rally from the 1.4254 NY low to the 1.4287 prior high as USD profit-taking set in. Early London is pinned near the 61.8% fib at 1.4267, and the Asian low at 1.4261 (78.6%) produced a rejection at 06:00 UTC. The session high at 1.4272 caps the box.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4272, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4261 Asian low breaks the 78.6% fib and exposes the 1.4254 NY low
Close above the 1.4272 session high ends the Asian lower-high sequence, with the 1.4287 prior high next
Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Monday NY · RSI 47 · price 1.42659
Lower highs below falling trendline; Asian low 1.4261 holding into London open.
Lower highs since the 1.4287 Monday high, with Asia slipping to a 1.4261 Asian low as USD eased on softer Treasury yields. The bounce off that low stalled at the 38.2% fib near 1.4271, just under the falling trendline from the 1.4283 Asian high, and London opens mid-range with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and 1.4271 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4261 Asian low exposes the 1.4254 Monday low
Recovery through the 1.4283 Asian high and 1.4287 Monday high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift the USD leg during the first hour of London
06:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from NY high, stalling above 1.4261 · RSI 51 · price 1.42681
Asia lower highs and lower lows off 1.4287; bounce from 78.6% retrace.
Asia faded Monday's NY rally to the 1.4287 monday high with lower highs, down to a 1.4261 session low that retested the 78.6% retrace of the NY rally fib before a bounce to 1.4272 (bounce high). Price is flat just under EMA20 into London open, RSI(14) neutral near 51, as USD pauses off 18-month highs ahead of Waller and Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 1.42608, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42715, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift the read during London open
Failure to hold the 1.4261 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4254 prior low
M15 close above the 1.4272 bounce high and then the 1.4283 asian high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
06:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.42675
Asian lower highs and lower lows, sweep of 1.4261 reclaimed.
Asia faded Monday's NY-session push to the 1.4287 day high. From the 1.4283 Asian high it printed lower highs into a 1.4265–1.4270 range cap, in line with the USD profit-taking flagged in the digest. A late-Asia sweep to the 1.4261 Asian low snapped back to 1.4267, leaving price pressing the descending trendline and EMA20 just ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 range cap and the descending trendline breaks the Asian lower-high sequence, opening the path to the 1.4283 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4261 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4254 ny open low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early in the London session, could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 41 · price 1.42643
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia under a falling trendline; price back at the Monday London shelf.
USDCAD has slid about 25 pips from the 1.4287 NY high. The falling trendline capped the 1.4270 range top at 05:00 UTC, and the Asia low at 1.4261 sits at 78.6% of Monday's NY rally, as USD profit-taking in Asia weighed. Late Asia, pre-London: the 06:00 bar is holding the old London shelf around 1.4260, ATR near 2.7 pips.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4282, 1.4287
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4254 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.4240 monday low
Close above the falling trendline and the 1.4270 range top breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.4282 asia high next
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC lands in the first hour of London and could shift the USD leg
Ny high at 1.4287 remains the session pivot capping the structure
Lower highs off Asian high, tight base at 1.4265–1.4270.
Asia faded from the 1.4283 Asian high to a 1.4265 Asian low, in line with the digest's note of USD easing on light profit-taking. Price has since compressed in a 5-pip box under the 1.4270 range top, sitting on the 61.8% fib of yesterday's NY rally from 1.4254 to the 1.4287 prior high, with Asia lower highs still intact ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42645, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42701, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4265 Asian low exposes the 1.4254 NY low, then the 1.4240 prior low
Close above the 1.4270 range top and the Asia lower highs trendline reopens 1.4283
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC lands early in the London session and could break the compression
ATR near 2.4 pips: London open likely to expand range beyond the current box
05:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, basing in late Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.42693
Lower highs from 1.4287 NY high; flat base at 1.4265 asian low.
The Asia session faded Monday's NY rally, slipping from the 1.4283 asian high to a 1.4265 asian low as the USD eased on light profit-taking. That floor held on three tests, and price is now pressing the 1.4271 lower high ahead of London open. Price is pinned at EMA20 near the 50–61.8% retrace of the 1.4254 swing low to 1.4287 prior high leg; RSI(14) is 42 and ATR(14) is under 3 pips, so ranges are compressed.
Support: 1.42645, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence; asian high 1.4283 and prior high 1.4287 sit above
Failure to hold the 1.4265 asian low exposes the 1.4254 swing low at the base of the NY rally
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could materially shift this read
ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk inside the NY session
1.4300 remains the repeated cap above the prior high
05:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, basing near asia low · RSI 45 · price 1.4268
Lower highs from 1.4287 NY high; tight 1.4265–1.4270 base.
The Asia session faded from the 1.4283 Asia high to 1.4265 as USD eased on profit-taking, leaving a lower high at 1.4275 below the 1.4287 NY high. Price has held a tight base above the 1.4265 Asia low for the last three hours, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 2.7 pips heading into the London open.
Support: 1.42645, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42753, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.4265 Asia low exposes the 1.4254 NY dip low.
Reclaiming the 1.4275 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the NY high-to-Asia low drop would put the 1.4283 Asia high back in play.
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the Asian range.
A close above the 1.4287 NY high would reopen the rally leg.
05:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.42683
Lower highs off 1.4287, basing at 1.4265.
USDCAD slid about 18 pips from the 1.4283 Asian high as DXY eased on profit-taking. A lower high at 1.4275 preceded a tight base at the 1.4265 Asian low, where price holds a 4-pip range just under EMA20 into London open. RSI(14) sits near 45 and ATR(14) is under 3 pips, so there is no momentum in either direction.
Support: 1.42645, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42753, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4265 asian low exposes the 1.4254 swing low from Monday's NY open
Reclaiming the 1.4275 lower high, roughly the 50% retrace of the Asian decline, would negate the Asia sell-off; above that, the 1.4283 asian high and the 1.4287 prior high cap
Waller at 07:45 UTC (10:45 broker) could break the compressed Asian range
Mid-Asia session, USDCAD has slipped from the 1.4283 Asian high through a lower high at 1.4275 as the dollar eased in early trade, and is now coiling in a 3-pip band just above the 1.4265 Asian low. That floor has been tested four times and sits near the 61.8% retracement of the NY leg from the 1.4254 swing low to the 1.4287 session high. RSI(14) is soft at 38 and ATR(14) is compressed at about 3 pips.
Support: 1.42645, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42753, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4265 Asian low opens the path to the 1.4254 swing low, then the 1.4240 Monday low
Recovery above the 1.4275 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and puts the 1.4283 Asian high back in play
1.4287 session high is the last pivot below the 1.4300 cap flagged in the CAD digest
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could break the current compression
04:17 UTC
Intraday pullback from day high, momentum fading · RSI 36 · price 1.42671
Asia lower highs, basing at 1.4265 near 61.8% fib.
The NY session rally from the 1.4254 NY low topped at the 1.4287 day high. As USD eased slightly in Asia, price faded in a chain of lower highs back to the 61.8% fib of that rally. The 1.4265 asian low has held for about two hours, with RSI(14) near 36, price below both EMAs and ATR compressed to roughly 3 pips late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.42645, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42753, 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4265 opens the NY low at 1.4254, then the London low at 1.4240
Close back above the lower high at 1.4275 breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the pullback read
Day high at 1.4287 and the 1.4300 round number remain the cap overhead
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the asian high, holding near the session low.
Late Asia session has unwound Monday's NY extension. Price slid from the 1.4283 asian high through the 1.4271 prior lows and below the 61.8% fib of the NY rally, and now sits at the 1.4265 session low with RSI(14) near 28. Lower highs along the Asia trendline match CAD edging firmer as DXY drifts lower in Asia.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london base at 1.4258 exposes the ny swing low at 1.4254 and the monday low at 1.4240
A reclaim of the prior lows at 1.4271 together with a break of the Asia trendline negates the lower-high sequence
An M15 close above the asian high 1.4283 and the ny high 1.4287 reopens the 1.4300 cap
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.42661
Lower-high chain off the asian high, basing at the 50% fib.
The Asia session has steadily faded the late-Monday push, printing lower highs from the 1.4283 asian high as the USD eases slightly overnight. Price has retraced about half of Monday's 1.4240–1.4287 rally and has stalled at the 1.4265 asian low and 50% fib for the past hour, with RSI(14) near 31 and ranges compressing to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4265, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4275, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4265 asian low and 50% fib exposes the 1.4254 ny low, then the 1.4240 monday low
A recovery above the 1.4275 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain, with the 1.4283 asian high and 1.4287 monday high next overhead
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around the London open, could materially shift this read; US ADP 4-week average follows at 12:15 UTC
Lower highs through Asia, broke below the post-NY range floor.
Asia session faded USDCAD from the asia high at 1.4283 through the 1.4271 broken low as DXY eased, and price now sits at the 61.8% retrace of Monday's NY rally from 1.4254 to the monday high at 1.4287. Demand has held the asia low at 1.4265 three times while asia lower highs keep capping, with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.42648, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42711, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 broken low and the asia lower highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4265 asia low exposes the ny low at 1.4254, then the monday low at 1.4240
Asia high at 1.4283 and monday high at 1.4287 cap the overnight range; a return there would neutralise the Asia selloff
London open in ~3.5h and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift the read
03:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 1.42661
LH/LL chain off the 1.4287 prior high; basing at the 1.4265 Asian low.
Asia session has given back most of Monday's NY rally to the 1.4287 prior high. Price printed a lower-high sequence down to the 1.4265 Asian low, tested twice, as the USD eased overnight. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is near 29, and the falling trendline caps around 1.4268 heading into London open.
Support: 1.42648, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42715, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the Asian LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 1.4265 Asian low exposes the 1.4254 NY swing low from Monday's pullback
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC lands early in London and could reset the session range
Recovery through 1.4287 prior high would put the 1.4300 cap back in play
Lower highs/lower lows through Asia, retesting Monday's London range top.
The Asia session has unwound most of Monday's NY leg. Price printed lower highs from 1.4283 to the 1.4265 asian low, with RSI(14) near 32 as USD eases ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the 1.4254 ny low to 1.4287 monday high rally, which is also the top of Monday's London range.
Support: 1.42648, 1.4260, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42707, 1.42753, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4265 asian low opens the 1.4260 london range floor and the 1.4254 ny low
Recovery above the 50% fib at 1.4271 and the 1.4275 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and the lower-high chain
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone into London open; the 1.4287 monday high caps the window
02:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 1.42668
Broke below Monday's late-NY range, testing prior London range top.
Mid-Asia session: price slipped out of Monday's late-NY 1.4282–1.4287 range, short of the monday high, as USD eased into Wednesday's CPI. A chain of Asia lower highs from the 1.4283 asia high broke the 1.4271 rollover low and carried price to the 1.4265 range top from Monday's London session, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.4265, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4265 range top exposes the 1.4254 swing low and the 1.4240 monday low
M15 close back above the 1.4271 rollover low and the Asia lower-highs line negates the breakdown read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI
02:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 26 · price 1.42652
Asia broke below the post-NY range floor; now testing the top of Monday's London range.
The Asia session has carried USD/CAD out of the 1.4271–1.4287 range held since Monday's NY high. Price has printed lower highs from the 1.4283 Asia high down to 1.4265, which also gives back more than 61.8% of the NY rally. That fits the digest's note of the pair edging lower in Asia. RSI(14) sits near 26, and price is now leaning on the top of Monday's London range around 1.4260.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42543, 1.42398
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.42826, 1.42871
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4271 range floor negates the Asia breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4260 london range exposes the 1.4254 ny swing low, then the 1.4240 day low
A break above the asia lower highs trendline ends the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of London
02:17 UTC
Short-term downtrend in Asia, below both EMAs · RSI 31 · price 1.42699
Overnight range broken lower, lower highs since 00:30 UTC.
Asia session slipped out of the overnight 1.4278–1.4283 range, printing a session low at 1.4268 under a run of lower highs. That fits the digest's read of USD/CAD edging lower in Asia. Price is parked at the 50% retracement of Monday's NY rally (1.4254–1.4287), with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4268, 1.4254, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4275, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4275 lower high breaks the Asian downtrend line
Failure to hold the 1.4268 session low exposes the NY swing low at 1.4254, then Monday's day low near 1.4240
A reclaim of the 1.4283 range top negates the range break; Monday's prior high at 1.4287 sits just above
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around the London open, could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pullback from Monday high · RSI 32 · price 1.42697
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, retracing the NY rally.
Asia session is extending the pullback from Monday's 1.4287 NY high and has broken the 1.4271 rollover low, in line with the digest's note of USD/CAD edging lower in Asia despite firm USD. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the NY rally, with the 1.4275 lower high capping the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.42668, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.42753, 1.42828
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4271 rollover low would mark the break as false
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.4267 opens the 1.4254 NY open low
Close above the 1.4275 lower high breaks the descending trendline; 1.4283 Asia high is next
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, ahead of London, could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Pullback from NY high, short-term momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 1.42742
Asian range low broken, lower highs since 1.4287, holding the 1.4271 asia low.
Asia session broke below its 1.4278–1.4283 range and found demand at 1.4271, the asia low that matches the rollover wick and sits near the 38.2% of the Monday rally fib off 1.4240. Price is just under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39. Lower highs from the 1.4287 monday high kept the pair under the 1.4300 psych cap despite USD firmness on oil and Fed hike pricing.
Support: 1.4271, 1.4266, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4283, 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4271 asia low exposes the 1.4266 london top and the 38.2% Monday rally fib, with the 1.4254 ny pivot below
Reclaim of the 1.4283 asia high breaks the lower highs line and puts the 1.4287 monday high and the 1.4300 psych level back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone around London open
Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the larger event risks for the 1.4300 cap
01:31 UTC
Pullback within NY-session advance, short-term momentum down · RSI 29 · price 1.42712
Asian range low broken, price testing rollover low at 50% retracement of NY leg.
Monday's NY session ran from the 1.4254 NY open low through the 1.4267 London high to a 1.4287 session high, with USD bid on oil and hawkish Fed talk while CAD stayed heavy after the jobs miss. Mid-Asia, price has slipped through the 1.4278 Asian low to test the 1.4271 rollover low. That level sits on the 50% retracement of the NY leg, with RSI(14) near 29 and a run of lower highs since the session high.
Support: 1.4271, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4271 rollover low opens the 1.4267 London high, the old breakout base.
A reclaim of the 1.4278 Asian low puts price back inside the range, with the 1.4283 Asian high above.
A move back above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4287 session high would resume the NY advance.
Loss of the London high exposes the 1.4254 NY open low, the origin of the NY leg.
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI and Macklem.
Lower highs off the NY session high; Asian range broken lower, testing spike low.
Monday's USD-led NY rally ran from the 1.4254 NY low to a 1.4287 session high on the oil and hawkish-Fed bid, then faded into a series of lower highs. Early Asia has slipped below the 1.4278 Asian low and is sitting on the 1.4271 spike low from the rollover, which lines up with the 50% fib of the NY leg. RSI(14) near 35 is soft but not extreme, and ATR is only about 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.4271, 1.4267, 1.4254
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4283, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4271 spike low exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.4267, then the 1.4254 NY low
Reclaim of the 1.4278 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Lower-highs trendline caps near the 1.4283 Asian high; a close above the 1.4287 session high resets the structure
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 1.4271–1.4287 since NY afternoon, lower highs into early Asia.
The NY session carried USDCAD from the 1.4254 ny swing low to a 1.4287 day high as the dollar pushed to YTD highs on oil and hawkish Fed talk. Since then the pair has held a tight band, with the Asia high at 1.4283 capping a lower-high line. Price is now back under both EMAs near the 38.2% retracement of that NY leg, with the rollover low at 1.4271 just below and ATR compressed to ~2.5 pips.
Support: 1.42714, 1.42668, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42826, 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4271 rollover low opens the 61.8% fib at 1.4267 and puts the NY rally retracement in play
Close above the 1.4283 Asia high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 1.4287 day high back in focus, with the 1.4300 18m high above
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the compressed range; CPI and Macklem on Wednesday remain the larger event risks
HH/HL chain off 1.4240, tight Asian range under 1.4287 high.
USD demand on the oil shock and hawkish Fed talk carried the pair from the 1.4254 NY low to a 1.4287 day high. Asia is compressing in a 5-pip band between the 1.4278 asian low and the 1.4283 asian high, holding near the 23.6% fib of that leg with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) just 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.42784, 1.42714, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42828, 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4287 day high opens the 1.4300 round number (18-month high)
Loss of the 1.4278 asian low exposes the 1.4271 rollover low and the 38.2% fib near 1.4275
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could break the Asian range
US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) are the larger risks to this read
NY breakout above London range, Asia consolidating under session high.
USD firmed on oil and hawkish Fed talk, and NY broke the 1.4267 London range top from the 1.4254 swing low to a 1.4287 session high. Asia is compressing in a tight 1.4278–1.4283 band just above the 23.6% retracement, with the rollover wick holding near the fib 50% at 1.4271. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is about 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.42784, 1.42707, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4278 Asian low exposes the fib 50% at 1.4271, the rollover low
Break of the 1.4287 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in play, also the 18-month high
Loss of the 1.4254 swing low invalidates the NY breakout leg
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone into London open
Tight consolidation under 1.4287 after NY rally; rollover spike low held.
Monday's NY session lifted USD/CAD from the 1.4254 NY base to a 1.4287 session high as the dollar rebounded on oil and hawkish Fed talk. Price has stalled since. A thin rollover spike to 1.4271 tagged the 50% retracement of that rally, and early Asia is holding a narrow 1.4278–1.4283 range with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.42784, 1.42714, 1.42543
Resistance: 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4287 session high opens the 1.4300 round number (18-month high)
Break of the 1.4278 asian low exposes the 1.4271 spike low; failure there points back to the 1.4254 ny base
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC around London open could break the Asian range
Tight 1.4277–1.4287 band in early Asia, lower highs under 1.42871.
NY session broke the London high near 1.4267 and ran to a 1.42871 session high as USD extended on oil-driven Fed hike pricing and CAD stayed heavy after the jobs miss. Early Asia is compressing beneath that high in a series of lower highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 45; the rollover low at 1.42714 sits close to the 50% retracement of the NY leg and held.
Support: 1.42765, 1.42714, 1.42669
Resistance: 1.42828, 1.42871, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42828 lower high and the 1.42871 session high reopens the 1.4300 round number, the 18-month high
Break below the asian low at 1.42765 and the rollover low at 1.42714 would put the London high at 1.4267 back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, during the London session, could materially shift this read