USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 15 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Post-data downtrend, now flat · RSI 55 · price 1.41909
Tight range 1.4182–1.4195 below lower high 1.4206.
USDCAD dropped from the 1.4222 day high, set on the US data spike, to a 1.4169 data low as falling Treasury yields outweighed hot PPI and retail sales. The bounce stalled at 1.4206 (bounce high), and early Asia is compressing in a 1.4182–1.4195 range, roughly the 38% retracement of the post-data drop. RSI(14) sits near 55 with price just above EMA20; the late-NY low at 1.4182 has held twice.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 swing high breaks the range and puts the 1.4206 bounce high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4182 late-ny low reopens the 1.4169 data low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC can break this compression and shift the read
Reclaim of the 1.4222 day high would negate the post-data drop structure
23:31 UTC
Down day, basing in a tight range · RSI 57 · price 1.41922
Post-NY lower highs, flat 1.4182–1.4195 range.
The NY-open ppi spike to 1.4222 on hot US PPI and retail sales was rejected, and falling yields dragged the pair to a 1.4169 day low before a rebound high at 1.4206 capped. Since then it has held a narrow 1.4182 range low to 1.4195 swing high band into early Asia session, with price pressing the top near 1.4192 and ATR compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 swing high, the 50% retrace of the ppi spike-to-low fib, opens the 1.4206 rebound high
Failure to hold the 1.4182 range low exposes the 1.4169 day low
Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could break the Asian range either way
23:16 UTC
Down from NY data spike, now flat · RSI 56 · price 1.41919
Lower highs after a 1.4169 low, tight 1.4182–1.4195 band.
The data spike to 1.4222 on the US PPI and retail sales releases was rejected. USD/CAD then slid to a 1.4169 day low as Treasury yields fell, and the bounce stalled at the 1.4204 bounce high, just above the 61.8% of the NY spike fib. Price is now compressed between the 1.4182 ny base and the 1.4195 lower high into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.42035, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high and the 1.4204 bounce high would end the lower-high sequence and put the 1.4222 data spike back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4182 ny base reopens the 1.4169 day low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC Governor Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into Asia open · RSI 56 · price 1.41919
Lower highs above flat 1.4182 range floor after NY sell-off.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 1.4222 was rejected as Treasury yields fell. NY hours then drove a 52-pip drop to the 1.4169 NY low at two-week lows. Since then the pair has compressed between the 1.4182 range floor and a 1.4195 lower high into the new Asia session, holding near the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off with ATR down to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.4200, 1.4206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high opens the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4206 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4182 range floor exposes the 1.4169 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC is a second CAD-side catalyst inside the Asian range
Lower highs after NY sell-off, compressing above 1.4182.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 1.4222 faded as Treasury yields fell. The NY sell-off ran to a 1.4169 day low, and the rebound high at 1.4206 was rejected near the 61.8% retracement. Price is now in a tight post-NY range between a 1.4182 double low and the 1.4195 lower high, holding around the 38.2% level in quiet early-Asia trade, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.4206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4206 rebound high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4182 double low exposes the 1.4169 day low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Post-data downtrend, now compressing · RSI 49 · price 1.41899
Lower highs from 1.4206 into a flat 1.4182 base, tight early-Asia range.
The 12:30 UTC data spike to 1.4222 was rejected as Treasury yields fell, and the selloff printed a NY low at 1.4169. Since then the bounce high at 1.4206 and a lower high at 1.4195 have pressed price against a swing low base near 1.4182. Price is holding near the 38.2% retrace of that drop in a thin, post-rollover Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR(14) about 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high (50% retrace) breaks the compression and exposes the 1.4206 bounce high
Failure to hold the 1.4182 swing low reopens the 1.4169 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~5h) and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4222 data spike high would negate the post-data downtrend
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into Asia open · RSI 48 · price 1.41866
Lower highs since the NY spike; tight 1.4182–1.4195 range after the session low.
The hot US data dump spiked the pair to 1.4222 but was rejected as Treasury yields fell. NY then printed a 1.4169 low; the bounce stalled at the 1.4206 rebound high and a 1.4195 lower high. Price is now coiling between the 1.4182 late NY low and 1.4195 in thin post-rollover trade, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4182 late NY low reopens the 1.4169 NY low
Close above the 1.4195 lower high breaks the descending trendline and targets the 1.4206 rebound high
Recovery through the 1.4222 data spike would negate the NY rejection
Warsh (03:30 UTC, ~5h) and Macklem (04:15 UTC, ~6h) could break the current compression
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 47 · price 1.41866
Lower highs since the US data spike, tight 1.4182–1.4195 band into the Asia session.
The hot US data spike to 1.4222 reversed as Treasury yields fell. Price broke below the Asian low at 1.4195 and set a NY low at 1.4169. Since then, lower highs at 1.4206 and 1.4195 have compressed price into a 1.4182–1.4195 band at the start of the Asia session, with the 1.4182 swing low tested twice and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4182 swing low exposes the 1.4169 NY low
Close back above the 1.4195 Asian low breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4206 lower high in view
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish Warsh reopens the 1.4222 data spike high
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 50 · price 1.41879
Lower highs below 1.4206, tight 1.4182–1.4195 band into Asia.
The hot US PPI and retail sales spike to the 1.4222 data high at 12:30 UTC was rejected as Treasury yields fell. NY then drove a 52-pip drop to the 1.4169 session low. Since the 1.4206 bounce high, lower highs have pressed price into a tight band between the 1.4182 swing low and the 1.4195 lower high into the thin Asia open, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4182 swing low exposes the 1.4169 session low
M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4206 bounce high back in play
Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC fall inside Asia hours and could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the NY bounce, compressing above the late low.
The hot US PPI and retail sales spike to the 1.4222 spike high was rejected as yields fell. USD/CAD broke below the Asian range to a 1.4169 NY low, and the rebound stalled at the 1.4206 bounce high, about 70% of the NY selloff. Since then a lower high at 1.4195 has formed, and price is now compressing just above the 1.4182 late low around rollover. It sits on a flat EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4182 late low reopens the 1.4169 NY low
Close above the 1.4195 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 1.4206 bounce high
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC Governor Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia session
21:16 UTC
Downtrend after the data spike, now compressing · RSI 51 · price 1.41887
Lower highs since 16:00 UTC, tight band above the late-NY low.
The hot US data spike briefly cleared the Asian range high but was rejected at the 1.4222 spike high. Falling yields then took price to a 1.4169 session low during NY hours. Since then, a 1.4206 rebound high and a 1.4195 lower high have pressed price into a 13-pip band above the 1.4182 late-NY low, with price at the 38.2% fib and RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 1.4206 rebound high back in play.
Failure to hold the 1.4182 late-NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4169 session low.
A recovery through the 1.4222 spike high would negate the post-data rejection read.
Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~6h) and Macklem at 04:15 UTC fall in the Asia session and could materially shift this read.
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 38 · price 1.41842
Lower highs since the 1.4222 data spike; holding just above the 1.4182 swing low.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales beats produced a brief data spike to 1.4222. The move was rejected as falling Treasury yields took over, and price slid to the 1.4169 session low. The rebound stalled at the 1.4206 bounce high, just above the 61.8% fib. A lower high at 1.4195 followed, and late NY trade is pressing the 1.4182 swing low along a descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4182 swing low exposes the 1.4169 session low
Reclaim of the 1.4206 bounce high puts the 1.4222 data spike back in view
Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) during Asia hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs vs a higher low; late-NY compression 1.4182–1.4195.
The 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales spike to the 1.4222 data high was rejected as falling Treasury yields took over, driving a NY session low at 1.4169. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 1.4206 and a swing high at 1.4195 against a higher swing low at 1.4182. It is compressing below both EMAs late in NY with RSI near 42.
Support: 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4195 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the compression
Failure of the 1.4182 swing low reopens the 1.4169 session low
Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) land in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late NY · RSI 41 · price 1.41879
Lower highs below the Asian range; higher low holding off the NY session low.
The US data spike to 1.4222 was rejected and price broke the Asian low near 1.4195. Falling Treasury yields overrode hot PPI and retail sales, and USD/CAD printed a session low at 1.4169. Late NY is compressing under a lower-highs line from the 1.4206 prior high, with the 1.4182 swing low holding and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4195 and the lower-highs line weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4182 swing low exposes the 1.4169 session low
A break above the 1.4206 prior high puts the 1.4222 data spike back in play
Hammack (20:30 UTC), then Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) during Asia hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4222 spike; higher low at 1.4182 above the 1.4169 NY low.
The PPI spike to 1.4222 at the NY open was rejected, and price broke the Asian range low near 1.4196 to print the NY low at 1.4169, as falling Treasury yields kept USD heavy. Lower highs at the 1.4206 swing high and the 1.4195 lower high now compress price above the late low at 1.4182, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41946, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4182 late low exposes the 1.4169 NY low
Hammack (20:30 UTC), Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 40 · price 1.41853
Lower highs below Asian range low, NY low holding.
The 12:30 UTC spike on hot US PPI and retail sales to the 1.4222 spike high was rejected as Treasury yields fell, and the pair dropped to a 1.4169 session low. The rebound stalled at a 1.4206 lower high, and a second lower high formed just under the 1.4195 Asian low. Late NY trade is pinned near the 1.4182 NY low.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift the read before the session close
Failure to hold the 1.4182 ny low exposes the 1.4169 session low
M15 close back above the 1.4195 asian low and the lower-highs line invalidates the descending structure; the 1.4206 lower high is next above
Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) land in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.41937
Lower high 1.4206 vs higher low 1.4182 after post-data drop.
USDCAD spiked to a 1.4222 data spike high on the hot US PPI and retail sales prints at the NY open, then reversed to a 1.4169 session low by 14:30 UTC as falling Treasury yields overrode the data. Late in NY hours price is compressing between a 1.4206 lower high and a 1.4182 higher low. It is pressing toward 1.4200, near the midpoint of the post-data drop, with RSI(14) near 47 and price straddling EMA20 just below EMA50.
Support: 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4206 lower high breaks the post-data sequence of lower highs and puts the 1.4222 data spike back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4182 higher low reopens the 1.4169 session low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC, could reset this compression
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.41911
Lower highs off the data spike; consolidating 1.4182–1.4206.
The hot US PPI and retail sales releases briefly swept the Asian range high to a 1.4222 data spike. Falling yields then drove a rejection to the 1.4169 NY low. The rebound stalled at a 1.4206 lower high, and late in the NY session price sits below the 1.4196 Asian low, just under the EMA20 near 1.4192, after holding a 1.4182 late-NY low. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR(14) is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4196, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4196 Asian low and EMA20 would neutralise the late-NY drift lower
Close above the 1.4206 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline from the data spike
Failure to hold the 1.4182 late-NY low exposes the 1.4169 NY low
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC), then Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 48 · price 1.41905
Lower highs from the data high, higher low off the NY low, trading below the Asian range.
The hot US PPI and retail sales release swept the Asian high, printing a data high at 1.4222. Yield-led USD selling then broke the Asian range and set the NY low at 1.4169. Late NY is compressing between lower highs off the 1.4206 swing high and a higher low at the 1.4182 swing low, with price just under EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.41816, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41955, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Hammack at 20:30 UTC (~1.5h) and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the 1.4182 swing low and higher-low line exposes the 1.4169 NY low and extends the two-week low
An M15 close back above the 1.4196 asian low and the 1.4206 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Macklem at 04:15 UTC is a CAD-side risk during the Asia session
Lower highs since the 1.4222 data high; holding above the 1.4169 day low.
The spike on hot US PPI and retail sales briefly took out the London high, but it failed at the 1.4222 data high. Price then faded to a 1.4169 day low as falling Treasury yields outweighed the data. The NY bounce stalled at 1.4206, a lower high, and late-NY price is back pressing the 1.4182 swing low below the Asian low at 1.4196. RSI(14) is near 41 and EMAs are overhead.
Support: 1.41817, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.41955, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4182 swing low exposes the 1.4169 day low; a close beneath it extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the 1.4196 Asian low and the 1.4206 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Retake of the 1.4222 data high would negate the false-break read
Hammack 20:30 UTC, Warsh 03:30 UTC and Macklem 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
NY sweep of Asian high reversed; lower high at 1.4206, drifting back toward NY low.
The NY open spike on the PPI and retail-sales beats swept the Asian range high to 1.4222 (ny high) and reversed as the USD faded with yields, printing a two-week ny low at 1.4169. The bounce retraced about 70% of that NY high-low leg before capping at the 1.4206 lower high. Price has since slipped back under the London low at 1.4192 and is drifting lower into the late NY session.
Support: 1.41693, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4206 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4169 ny low confirms a lower-low, with 1.4150 psych next
Reclaim of the 1.4192 london low would neutralise the late-session drift
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) overnight could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since US data · RSI 40 · price 1.41836
Lower high at 1.4206 below 12:30 UTC data high; Asian range broken lower.
The US data spike to the 1.4222 data high at 12:30 UTC was rejected as Treasury yields slid, dropping price to a 1.4169 NY low. The rebound stalled at a 1.4206 lower high, about 70% of the drop. Price is now drifting back below the 1.4195 Asian low into late NY, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 1.41693, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41955, 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4195 asian low negates the late-NY slide
Break of the 1.4169 ny low extends the lower-high/lower-low sequence toward the 1.4150 channel low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC in the Asia session, could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4206 lower high puts the 1.4222 data high back in play
17:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, drifting lower late NY · RSI 45 · price 1.41894
Lower highs after the NY reversal, trading below the Asian range.
The 12:30 UTC data bar swept the Asian range top to a 1.4222 session high. The hot PPI was then faded as US yields fell, and price broke the 1.4196 Asian low to a 1.4169 NY low. The rebound stalled at a 1.4206 lower high near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib, and post-London bars are leaning on the 1.4186 late low below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4196, 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4196 Asian low and the 1.4206 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4186 late low exposes the 1.4169 NY low, then the 1.4150 channel low
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC), Warsh (03:30 UTC Fri) and BoC's Macklem (04:15 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, rebound faded · RSI 47 · price 1.4193
Lower highs compressing above london low after NY sell-off.
The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail release spiked the pair to a 1.4222 data high, a false break of the Asian high, before yield-led USD selling dragged it to the 1.4169 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 1.4206 rebound high near the 61.8% retrace after London close. Price is now compressing in a 1.4191–1.4200 band, sitting on the london low with the descending trendline capping.
Support: 1.4191, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4191 london low exposes the 1.4169 ny low
Close above the 1.4206 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.4222 data high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift US yields and this read; Warsh and Macklem overnight are the larger risk
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY flush · RSI 44 · price 1.41946
Lower highs from 1.4222; tight 1.4192–1.4206 range late NY.
The hot PPI spike at 12:30 UTC poked just above the Asian high at 1.4222 and failed. The pair then dropped to a 1.4169 NY low as yields faded the release. The rebound stalled at 1.4206, a bounce high past the 61.8% retrace, and price now sits mid-fib in a 1.4192–1.4206 band just above the London low, with RSI(14) at 44 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4192 london low reopens the 1.4169 ny low
Close above the 1.4206 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4222 asian high back in play
Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) in the Asia session, could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating after NY sweep · RSI 45 · price 1.41976
Lower highs from 1.4222; 1.4191–1.4206 band after London close.
The 12:30 UTC PPI/retail spike to the 1.4222 ny spike only edged past the 1.4220 Asian high before reversing. USD then faded as yields slipped, sweeping the 1.4195 floor to a 1.4169 ny low during NY hours. Since the rebound, price has rotated between the 1.4191 pm low and the 1.4206 lower high, capped near the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 45 and price flat on EMA20.
Support: 1.4191, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4206 lower high, then the 1.4222 ny spike, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4191 pm low reopens the 1.4169 ny low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift the late-NY tone
Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) during Asia session are the high-impact risk for this range
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 45 · price 1.41977
Lower highs since Asia; post-PPI breakdown, now pivoting mid-retrace.
The hot-PPI spike to the 1.4222 ppi high at 12:30 UTC was rejected, and the NY session broke the 1.4191 pre-data low to a 1.4169 session low as yields faded. The rebound stalled at the 1.4206 rebound high near the 61.8% retrace, and price is pivoting around 1.4198 under a lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.4191, 1.41693
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4191 pre-data low exposes the 1.4169 session low
Close above the 1.4206 rebound high and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4217 breaks the downtrend sequence toward the 1.4222 ppi high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift the read through yields
16:31 UTC
Range, recovering from NY sweep · RSI 48 · price 1.42001
False break below 1.4192 range floor, rising lows back to 1.4200.
The 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales release spiked USDCAD to a 1.4222 data high. The USD fade on lower yields then swept the 1.4192 London low to a 1.4169 NY low. Price has reclaimed the 1.4200 handle on rising lows, about 60% back into the post-data drop, with the rebound high at 1.4206 capping and RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4192 London low voids the false-break read and exposes the 1.4169 NY low
Break of the rising lows line from 1.4169 shifts the recovery back to range-floor tests
Close above the 1.4206 rebound high puts the 1.4222 data high and range top in play
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC, then Warsh and Macklem in Asia hours, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.4222 PPI spike; break of London low reclaimed.
The US PPI/retail sales release in NY hours spiked USD/CAD to a 1.4222 ppi high above the Asian range top, but the move was rejected. As the USD fade spread, price broke the 1.4192 London low to a 1.4169 day low. The rebound has reclaimed the London low and is testing the 61.8% PPI drop fib near 1.4202, just under the 1.4206 breakdown shelf, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4206 breakdown shelf reopens the 1.4222 ppi high
Failure to hold the 1.4192 London low exposes the 1.4169 day low again
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 1.4239; NY low at 1.4169, 61.8% bounce.
The hot PPI print at NY open spiked the pair to a 1.4222 ny high, just above the Asian range top, and it failed. Fading yields then broke the london low and set a 1.4169 ny low before a bounce retraced 61.8% to the 1.4204 bounce high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4191, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4204, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4204 bounce high (61.8% fib) keeps the NY sell-off structure intact
A close above the 1.4222 ny high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4191 london low re-exposes the 1.4169 ny low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) Fri, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4239; NY low undercut the London low then reclaimed.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales beats printed a spike high at 1.4222, matching the 1.4220 cap from the Asia session, then faded as yields slipped and the USD softened. The move ran to a 1.4169 NY low, below the 1.4192 London low, before snapping back. Price is now near 1.4200, just under the 1.4204 rebound high at the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4204, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4192 london low reopens the 1.4169 ny low and confirms the false break failed
Acceptance above the 1.4204 rebound high / 61.8% fib shifts focus to the 1.4222 spike high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC), could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Range, two-sided after US data · RSI 45 · price 1.41974
1.4192–1.4222 range swept on both sides in NY, price back at range floor.
The 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales spike briefly broke the Asia–London range high, setting a session high at 1.4222. That move faded as US yields eased, and the NY drop ran to a 1.4169 NY low. The rebound has reclaimed the 1.4192 London low and stalled near the 61.8% fib at 1.4202, with RSI(14) neutral at 45 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4202, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4192 London low puts the 1.4169 NY low back in focus
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.4202 shifts attention to the 1.4222 session high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh 03:30 UTC and Macklem 04:15 UTC overnight, could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off a fresh session low · RSI 51 · price 1.41956
NY broke below the Asia/London floor, then snapped back to retest it from below.
The NY data spike to 1.4222 on the hot PPI/retail print was rejected, and lower US yields dragged the pair through the 1.4192 london low to a 1.4169 ny low. That sweep reversed sharply, and price now sits at the 50% fib of the drop near 1.4196, just under the 1.4200 round number, with RSI(14) neutral and EMA20/50 overhead.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4222
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4192 london low reopens the 1.4169 ny low
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number and the 61.8% fib near 1.4202 neutralises the breakdown and exposes the 1.4222 data spike high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh and Macklem overnight, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4239; 1.4192 London low broken, then reclaimed after a sweep to 1.4169.
The US data spike to the 1.4222 data high faded in the first hours of NY. Price then broke the 1.4192 London low and swept to a 1.4169 session low before a sharp recovery to the 1.4200 psych level, about the 50% retrace of that drop. USD softness on lower yields is driving the move, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4200 psych confirms the false break and reopens the 1.4222 data high
Failure to hold the 1.4192 London low exposes the 1.4169 session low again
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC), then Warsh and Macklem overnight, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC spike; overnight range broken lower.
Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair to a post-data high at 1.4222. The spike faded on lower highs and early in the NY session the pair broke the overnight 1.4192–1.4220 range, taking out the London low. Price is printing fresh lows just above the 1.4180 round number, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.4180, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 1.4192 would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4180 round number exposes the 1.4150 channel low
Recovery through the lower highs off the post-data high at 1.4222 negates the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the post-data spike; London low broken.
The 12:30 GMT PPI and retail sales spike briefly cleared the Asian high at 1.4220 to a data high of 1.4222, then reversed, putting the USD bid seen elsewhere at odds with this pair. Lower highs through the first hours of NY broke the 1.4192 London low to a session low of 1.4185, with RSI(14) near 38 and not stretched.
Support: 1.41853, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4192 london low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4185 session low opens the 1.4150 channel low cited in the digest
A recovery through the lower-highs line toward the 1.4222 data high negates the post-data drop
Hammack 20:30 GMT and Macklem 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Down-drift, flattening into range · RSI 42 · price 1.41953
Range 1.4192–1.4222, lower highs after data.
USDCAD has held a 1.4192–1.4222 range since Asia, and London twice pressed below the asian low at 1.4196 without follow-through. The hot PPI and retail sales beat at 12:30 GMT spiked price to a data high of 1.4222, a false break above the Asian range high that faded back under the 1.4200 round number. Lower highs are now forming in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.41955, 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42217
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4192 session low breaks the range floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4200 round number and a close above the 1.4222 data high would invalidate the post-data highs line
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT could shift USD tone after the PPI beat
BoC Macklem speech Oct 16 04:15 UTC falls in the Asian session and could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a range · RSI 42 · price 1.41953
1.4192–1.4222 range since Asia, lower highs in NY.
After the 1.4294–1.4192 decline, USDCAD has ranged 1.4192–1.4222 since Asia, and London traded both sides of the Asian range. The hot US PPI spike to the 1.4222 ppi high at 12:30 GMT failed to hold. NY is now printing lower highs back toward the 1.4192 day low, with the 1.4209 swing high capping the bounce.
Support: 1.4192, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4209, 1.4222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4192 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4150 channel low
Close above the 1.4222 ppi high breaks the NY lower highs and invalidates the range read
Recovery above the 1.4209 swing high puts the range top back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT, then Warsh (Fri 03:30 GMT) and Macklem (Fri 04:15 UTC), could materially shift this read
30-pip range 1.4192–1.4222 after lower-high decline from 1.4299.
The slide from 1.4299 stalled into a 1.4192–1.4222 range through Asia and London. London's dip below the Asian low ran only to the 1.4192 session low before failing. The hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 GMT spiked price to the 1.4222 range top, where it was rejected, leaving price mid-range near 1.4205 with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4222 range top opens the 1.4230 prior NY low and the 38.2% decline fib near 1.4233
Break of the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4192 session low resumes the lower-low sequence from 1.4299
Hammack at 20:30 GMT, then Warsh (03:30 GMT) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) overnight could materially shift this read
30-pip range 1.4192–1.4222 since Asia, lows flattening.
After yesterday's NY slide from 1.4299, USDCAD has held a 1.4192–1.4222 range through Asia and London, with the range low defended three times. The hot US PPI and retail sales spiked the 12:30 UTC bar to the range top at 1.4222, near the 23.6% retracement of the slide. That move was rejected, and price is back mid-range just above the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4222 range top breaks the range and exposes yesterday's 1.4230 ny low
Failure to hold the 1.4192 range low resumes the lower-low sequence from the 1.4299 slide
Repeated closes below the 1.4200 round number put the range low back in focus
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh (03:30 UTC) and Macklem (04:15 UTC) Friday, could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 57 · price 1.42089
1.4192–1.4220 range since Asia after a decline from 1.4299.
Yesterday's NY rejection at the 1.4299 prior high bled into a steady decline. Since Asia, price has based in a 1.4192–1.4220 range, and London's dip to a 1.4192 session low failed to hold. The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail bar spiked to 1.4219, just under the asia high, then faded to 1.4209 at ema50. ATR(14) is near 7 pips.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4220 asia high breaks the range top and opens the 1.4250 round number
Loss of the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4192 session low resumes the decline from 1.4299
Follow-through on the US PPI/retail release: the data bar's wick shows the reaction is still two-way
BoC Macklem speaks at 04:15 UTC, a likely driver of the next Asian range
1.4192–1.4220 range after post-CPI slide; London low swept and rejected.
Wednesday's hot-CPI spike to 1.4299 fully unwound as US yields slid, and price has based in a 1.4192–1.4220 range through Asia and London. London swept below the Asian low to 1.4192 and was rejected, lifting price back above 1.4200 psych to 1.4210. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR(14) about 5.6 pips going into the 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4242
What it said to watch
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could break the 1.4192–1.4220 range in either direction
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 38.2% CPI-move fib near 1.4233, then the 1.4242 swing high
Failure to hold 1.4200 psych and a close below the 1.4192 london low resumes the post-CPI lower-low sequence
BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC Oct 16 is the next CAD-side risk to this read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend from CPI spike high, basing near 1.4200 · RSI 55 · price 1.42075
Lower highs from 1.4299; London range 1.4192–1.4220.
USDCAD has faded steadily through NY and Asia from the 1.4299 CPI spike high as USD handed back its CPI gains on softer yields. London has ranged 1.4192–1.4220; a brief dip below the Asian low at 1.4196 was reversed back above 1.4200. Price is now pressing the 1.4209 lower high ahead of US data, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4209, 1.4220
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) of ~5.6 pips understates typical release ranges
M15 close above the 1.4220 session high, near the 23.6% fib of the post-CPI decline, breaks the London range to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number and a close below the 1.4192 session low extends the lower-low sequence from 1.4299
Rejection at the 1.4209 lower high keeps the London range intact
Lower highs since London open; marginal break below the Asian low, compressing pre-data.
USDCAD has ground steadily lower since the post-CPI rejection at 1.4299 as USD gave back its CPI pop on softer yields. London edged just below the Asian low at 1.4196 to a 1.4192 session low, with lower highs at the 1.4220 asian high and the 1.4209 london high. 1.4200 psych is now capping the bounce, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) near 5 pips, compressed ahead of US data.
Support: 1.4192
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4209, 1.4220
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, the next bar period, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4209 london high breaks the lower-high sequence; above the 1.4220 asian high voids the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4192 session low extends the lower-low chain
Acceptance back above 1.4200 psych turns the Asian-low break into a false break
Lower highs at 1.4220 and 1.4209, Asian low broken.
Yesterday's post-CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully reversed as US yields slid. Late London has slipped under the Asian low to a fresh session low at 1.4193, with lower highs capping at the 1.4220 London high and the 1.4209 lower high. RSI(14) near 37 is not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.41925, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.42094, 1.42202
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4209 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.4193 session low exposes the 1.4150 channel low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~60 min) could materially shift this read
Macklem speaks Oct 16 04:15 UTC, a CAD-side risk for the Asia session
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at the lows · RSI 41 · price 1.42005
Lower highs compressing onto a flat 1.4194–1.4196 floor.
USD/CAD has bled lower all session from the post-CPI spike high at 1.4299 as softer US yields kept the USD offered. London set a session low at 1.4194, a pip under the Asian low, and that floor held twice. Lower highs at the 1.4220 Asian high and the 1.4209 London high are now pressing price onto the 1.4200 round number. RSI(14) is near 41 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41943
Resistance: 1.42094, 1.42202
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4194 london low breaks the floor and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4209 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.4220 asian high is next
US Retail Sales, PPI and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC tomorrow is the next CAD-side risk
Lower highs since the post-CPI 1.4299 peak; 1.4194–1.4220 consolidation since Asia.
Yesterday's CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound as US yields reversed. London printed a fresh two-week low at 1.4194 and bounced, but the recovery stalled at 1.4209. That is a lower high near the 61.8% fib of the London leg. Price is now pinned at the 1.4200 round number with RSI(14) near 43, ahead of US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41945
Resistance: 1.42094, 1.42202
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4194 london low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4209 lower high and the 1.4220 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem at 04:15 UTC tomorrow is the next CAD-side risk
10:46 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 50 · price 1.42076
1.4194–1.4220 range since Asia, double low at 1.4194.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4194–1.4220 range through Asia and London after fully unwinding Wednesday's CPI spike to 1.4299 as the dollar fade dominated. London twice probed just under the Asian low to the session low at 1.4194 and was bought back each time. Price is now back near 1.4208, heading toward the asian high, which sits by the 23.6% retracement of the CPI fade.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4194
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.4220 breaks the range and opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4234
Loss of the 1.4200 round number and the session low at 1.4194 resumes the lower-high sequence from 1.4299
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, around NY open, could materially shift this read
London swept both sides of Asian range, back inside.
Mid-London, the pair poked above the 1.4216 asian high to a 1.4220 london high, then reversed to a 1.4194 london low marginally under the Asian low. That low was retested at 09:15 UTC, and price is back near 1.4205, around the 38.2–50% fib retrace of the London drop. Soft USD after yesterday's CPI fade from 1.4299 keeps the pair pinned at the 1.42 psych handle.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4194
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4220
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (first hour of NY) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4194 london low voids the double bottom and breaks the Asian range floor
M15 close above the 1.4220 london high clears both the asian high and the session high
Loss of 1.4200 psych puts the double-bottom read at risk
10:16 UTC
Downtrend from CPI spike, flattening into a base · RSI 47 · price 1.42034
Tight range 1.4194–1.4220 after full fade of the 1.4299 CPI high.
USDCAD has unwound the entire hot-CPI spike to 1.4299 as USD softened on falling yields, grinding into a 1.4194–1.4220 range through Asia. London twice dipped a pip below the 1.4195 Asian low to a 1.4194 london low and reclaimed 1.4200. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.4194, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 asian high, which aligns with the 23.6% retracement of the cpi fade fib, breaks the range top and exposes the 1.4239 swing high
Close below the 1.4194 london low turns the false break into a fresh lower low and opens the 1.4150 channel base
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (NY open) could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem speaks Fri 04:15 UTC and is a CAD risk late in the Asia session
10:01 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, flattening into a range · RSI 44 · price 1.42034
Lower highs since London open against a flat 1.4194 floor.
The hot-CPI spike to 1.4299 fully unwound overnight as Treasury yields slid. London's push through the Asian high to 1.4220 failed, and the session low at 1.4194 has since held three times. Price is pressing the lower-high trendline near 1.4204, just above the 1.4200 round number. RSI(14) is at 44 and the range is tight, about 26 pips.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4194
Resistance: 1.4213, 1.4220
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4213 lower high and 1.4220 london high (23.6% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number and a close below the 1.4194 session low confirms a lower-low
USDCAD has erased the full CPI spike to 1.4299 as the dollar tracks falling yields, and London twice probed the Asian low with a session low at 1.4194. Lower highs at the 1.4220 Asian high and 1.4205 are capping price below the falling trendline, and RSI(14) near 34 is not yet oversold.
Support: 1.41943
Resistance: 1.42046, 1.42202
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4194 session low extends the lower-low chain below the Asian range
Close above the 1.4205 lower high and falling trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend from post-CPI high, flattening into a range · RSI 39 · price 1.41989
Asian range 1.4194–1.4220 holding; London probed the low without a close below.
USD/CAD has given back the whole post-CPI spike from 1.4299 as US yields slid, settling into a 1.4194–1.4220 Asian range capped by the 23.6% fib. London swept the Asian low for a 1.4194 london low with no close beneath, and the rebound stalled at the 1.4205 bounce high. Price sits on 1.4200 with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4194, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4194 london low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.4150 channel base
Reclaim of the 1.4205 bounce high and then the 1.4220 asian high (23.6% fib) breaks the range to the upside
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, losing pace near 1.4200 · RSI 40 · price 1.42004
Lower highs from 1.4299; London made a marginal new low under the Asian range.
USD/CAD has bled lower from the post-CPI 1.4299 spike high under a falling trendline as the hot-CPI dollar rally faded. London capped at 1.4213 below the 1.4220 Asian high, then swept a pip under the Asian low to a 1.4194 session low before demand stepped in. Price is now pinned at the 1.4200 psych level with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41943
Resistance: 1.42131, 1.42202
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4194 session low extends the lower-low chain from 1.4299
Reclaim of the 1.4213 London high and the falling trendline (~1.4209) breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4220 Asian high above
US Retail Sales / PPI / claims at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Holding the 1.4200 psych level keeps the sweep-and-hold read intact into NY
Lower highs since CPI spike; Asian low broken in London.
USDCAD has fully unwound yesterday's CPI spike to 1.4299 as the broad USD faded. London open was rejected at the Asian high near 1.4220 and has since pushed through the Asian low at 1.4196 to a fresh session low at 1.4194. RSI(14) at 33 is soft but not oversold, with a lower high at 1.4213 capping.
Support: 1.41943, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.42131, 1.42202
What it said to watch
Failure to hold below the 1.4196 Asian low would make the session-low break a false break
M15 close back above the 1.4213 lower high negates the London leg down; the asian high at 1.4220 sits just above
Extension lower exposes the 1.4150 channel low cited by Scotia
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now ranging · RSI 39 · price 1.42019
Asian range 1.4196–1.4220; London printing lower highs.
The US CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound as the broad USD faded, and Asia settled into a 1.4196–1.4220 range. London rejected the Asian high at 1.4220 and is printing lower highs, with price now sitting on the 1.4200 round number and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41955
Resistance: 1.42202, 1.42231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4196 Asian low breaks the range and extends the post-CPI lower-low sequence
A recovery through the 1.4220 Asian high and the 1.4223 pre-CPI high invalidates the London lower highs
US PPI and Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.4196–1.4220 after full reversal of the CPI spike.
Yesterday's US CPI spike to 1.4299 was fully retraced as the broad USD faded, with the Asia low at 1.4196 now the floor of a roughly 24-pip range. The early high at 1.4220 marked a false break above the Asian range; the London open faded it back to the 1.4205 london low, and price is mid-range in early London with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4223
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4220–1.4223 (early high / pre-cpi high) breaks the range and puts the 38.2% cpi spike fib near 1.4235 in play
Failure to hold the 1.4196 asia low resumes the post-CPI lower-low sequence
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend stalling into a range · RSI 53 · price 1.42096
Lower highs from 1.4299, now ranging 1.4196–1.4220.
USDCAD has fully unwound yesterday's CPI spike to 1.4299 as US yields slid, bottoming at the 1.4196 asian low. A pre-London push was rejected at the 1.4220 session high, near the 23.6% level of the CPI spike fib. Early London is holding above the 1.4205 london low, price is pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 session high reopens the 1.4239 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4205 london low puts the 1.4196 asian low back in play; a break extends the CPI unwind
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, bouncing off Asian low · RSI 56 · price 1.42108
Lower highs from 1.4299; Asian higher low, Europe push capped at 1.4220.
USDCAD has fully unwound yesterday's CPI spike to 1.4299 as US yields faded, printing an Asian low at 1.4196. Early Europe pushed through the 1.4216 Asian high to a europe high at 1.4220, which is the 23.6% fib of the post-CPI decline. That push was rejected, and price is back at 1.4211, just above the 1.4207 london low and pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.4207, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4231
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4220 europe high puts the 1.4231 pre-cpi high in view
A break of the 1.4207 london low re-exposes the 1.4196 asian low; failure there resumes the lower-low sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.4196 Asian low, capped at 1.4220 session high.
The CPI spike to 1.4299 fully unwound as the dollar faded on lower yields, printing an Asian low at 1.4196 before a higher-low bounce. Early London is showing a rejection at the 1.4220 Asian high, which sits on the 23.6% retracement of the CPI leg, and price is now testing the rising line from the Asian low.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4239
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4220 Asian high clears the 23.6% retrace and exposes the 1.4239 swing high
Break of the 1.4206 swing low and the rising line reopens the 1.4196 Asian low
Failure to hold 1.4196 Asian low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4299 into 1.4196 Asian low, now rising lows capped at 1.4220.
The CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully faded on a lower-high sequence into the 1.4196 Asian low as the broad USD unwound with yields. Early London pushed to a 1.4220 london high that is stalling, with rising lows off the Asian low intact and RSI(14) near 58. The bounce has retraced only about a quarter of the CPI spike so far.
Support: 1.42057, 1.41955
Resistance: 1.42202, 1.42391
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4206 higher low breaks the rising lows and puts the 1.4196 asian low back in play
Close above the 1.4220 london high opens the 1.4239 swing high, near the 38.2% retrace of the CPI spike
US Retail Sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5.7h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.4196 Asian low, capped at 1.4220 in early London.
Yesterday's CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound as the USD faded with yields. Asia printed a 1.4196 Asian low with higher lows since. The early-London push stalled at 1.4220, the session high and the 23.6% fib of the CPI spike, and price is easing back to 1.4213.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4235
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4220 session high clears the pre-CPI range top and opens the 38.2% fib at 1.4235
Break below the 1.4206 swing low undoes the higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.4196 Asian low back in play
US Retail Sales / PPI / claims cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Asian low, capped at session high.
The post-CPI fade from 1.4299 bottomed at the 1.4196 Asian low as the broad USD unwound. A higher-low chain along the rising trendline has since lifted price back to the 1.4220 session high, where the last two bars were capped ahead of London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 55, with price above EMA20 but still under EMA50 and only a shallow retrace of the post-CPI fade.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 session high breaks the Asian-session cap and opens the 1.4250 round number
Loss of the 1.4206 higher low breaks the rising trendline; below 1.4196 asian low resumes the post-CPI fade
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Asian low, Asian high breached pre-London.
The US CPI spike to 1.4299 fully unwound through NY and Asia as the dollar faded, bottoming at the 1.4196 Asian low before a higher low at 1.4205. The last two bars pushed through the 1.4216 Asian high ahead of London open. Price now sits under the 1.4223 pre-CPI high, where EMA50 and the 23.6% retrace of the post-CPI drop line up. RSI(14) is near 67.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.4239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4223 pre-cpi high opens the 1.4239 swing high
Slip back below the 1.4216 asian high turns the break into a false break inside the Asian range
Loss of the 1.4205 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4196 asian low
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The US CPI spike to 1.4299 in the NY session fully unwound as the dollar faded, with the slide bottoming at the 1.4196 Asian low. Late Asia has built a higher-low chain off that base and is now testing the 1.4216 Asian high, just under the fib 23.6% at 1.4220 and with RSI(14) neutral at 54, ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4220, 1.4239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4216 Asian high and fib 23.6% at 1.4220 breaks the Asian range and puts the 1.4239 late NY high in view
Loss of the 1.4206 swing low breaks the Asian higher-lows trendline; failure at the 1.4196 Asian low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Post-CPI decline stalled, basing in late Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.4212
Asian range 1.4196–1.4216 with higher lows off the session low.
USD/CAD has fully round-tripped the CPI spike to 1.4299, sliding through NY and Asia as the dollar faded with yields, and is back inside its pre-CPI range. Late Asia shows higher lows off the 1.4196 asian low, with price above the ema20 and pressing the 1.4216 asian high ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4216 asian high and 1.4223 pre-cpi high, which is also the 23.6% retracement of the post-cpi fade, breaks the Asian range higher
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4206 and the asia rising lows line reopens the 1.4196 asian low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Full CPI spike retraced; higher-low chain inside Asian range.
The hot US CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound as USD faded through NY and Asia. A brief false break below the pre-CPI low to the 1.4196 Asian low reversed, and late-Asia bars are building higher lows back toward the 1.4216 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41955
Resistance: 1.42164, 1.42231, 1.42352
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4216 Asian high and the 1.4223 pre-cpi high opens the fib 38.2 retracement at 1.4235
Failure to hold 1.4200 round number and the 1.4196 Asian low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
London open in ~1.5h is likely to set the first test of the Asian range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.42095
Full post-CPI round-trip; higher lows off 1.4196 inside Asian range.
USD/CAD has fully reversed the US CPI spike to 1.4299, fading through NY and Asia as yields reversed and the dollar unwound, briefly undercutting the pre-CPI base to an asian low of 1.4196. Late Asia has printed higher lows off that point and closed back above the fade trendline, but price sits mid-range below the asian high at 1.4216 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41955
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.4223, 1.42352
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4196 resumes the post-CPI fade and negates the sweep
Failure to hold the round number 1.4200 breaks the late-Asia higher-low sequence
Break of the asian high 1.4216 and pre-cpi high 1.4223 brings the 38.2% fib of the CPI spike at 1.4235 into play
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Late-Asia higher lows off the Asian low, still inside the pre-CPI range.
The 12:30 UTC CPI spike to 1.4299 met rejection, and the dollar fade through NY and Asia pulled price back below the 1.4223 pre-cpi high. Late Asia has printed a higher low chain off the 1.4196 Asian low, retracing about 70% of the Asian swing fib. The 1.4216 Asian high caps the bounce.
Support: 1.4202, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4223
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4216 Asian high reopens the 1.4223 pre-cpi high
A break of the 1.4202 higher low exposes the 1.4196 Asian low and the 1.4200 handle
London open in about 2h is the first test of the Asian range
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (about 7.7h) could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.42099
Lower highs from 1.4299; Asian range 1.4196–1.4217, price mid-upper.
The hot US CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound as the USD faded overnight, taking price back to the pre-CPI high zone. That leaves the spike as a false break. Late Asia is ranging between the 1.4196 asian low and the 1.4217 asian high, with a five-bar bounce from the 1.4200 psych area now back above the EMA20 but still below the EMA50.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41955
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4217 asian high puts the 1.4223 pre-cpi high back in play
Break of the 1.4196 asian low extends the CPI fade below the 1.4200 psych level
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
London open in ~2h is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at pre-CPI base · RSI 46 · price 1.42048
Lower highs from 1.4299 CPI high, small bounce off 1.4196 Asia low.
The hot-CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound through NY and Asia as the USD faded. Price is back at the pre-release base, with a 1.4196 Asia low just under the 1.4200 round number. Late-Asia bars are poking above the descending trendline from the CPI high, while the 1.4216 Asia high and 1.4223 pre-CPI high still cap the bounce.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41955
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4196 Asia low extends the lower-low chain below the 1.4200 round number
M15 close above the 1.4216 Asia high and 1.4223 pre-CPI high puts the 38.2% CPI move fib near 1.4235 in play
London open in ~30 min may set the session range against the Asia high and low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through NY and Asia, basing at window low.
The hot US CPI spike was rejected at 1.4299 and has since been fully retraced, with lower highs through NY and the Asia session down to a 1.4196 Asia low, back where the window opened. Late in Asia, price is holding just above the 1.4200 round number but remains below the EMA20 with RSI at 43. The Asia high at 1.4217 and the pre-CPI high at 1.4223 sit overhead.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41955
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231, 1.42352
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4196 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 1.4200 round number
A recovery through the 1.4217 Asia high and the 1.4223 pre-CPI high, then the fib 38.2 at 1.4235, would challenge the downtrend read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (in about 8h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4299; pressing the Asian low.
The US CPI spike to 1.4299 has been fully unwound as USD faded through NY and Asia. Price is grinding down a descending trendline of lower highs and now sits under the 1.4200 round number, near the 1.4196 Asian low, with RSI(14) at 41 and not yet oversold. The 1.4216 lower high from the Asian bounce is the nearest structural cap, with the pre-CPI high at 1.4223 above it.
Support: 1.41955
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42162, 1.42231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4196 Asian low extends the lower-low chain into London
Recovery above the 1.4200 round number and the descending trendline near 1.4203 would ease the downtrend read
Close above the 1.4216 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4223 pre-cpi high in play
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (in about 8h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-CPI 1.4299 peak; CPI spike fully unwound.
USDCAD has erased the whole hot-CPI spike to 1.4299. It ground lower through NY and Asia in a chain of lower highs and is now pressing the 1.4200 round number, with a fresh session low at 1.4196. RSI(14) sits near 40, not oversold, and the lower high at 1.4216 has capped two bounce attempts late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.41955
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42164, 1.42391
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4196 session low extends the lower-low chain beneath the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4216 lower high and the downtrend line breaks the Asia sequence; 1.4239 asia high next above
London open in ~3h may test whether the round number holds or gives way
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing at 1.4200 · RSI 39 · price 1.42013
CPI spike fully retraced; lower highs since 1.4299, tight Asian range at the lows.
The CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound through NY and Asia hours, despite the USD-bid backdrop. Late Asia session is holding a 1.4200–1.4216 range, with price pinned at the round number after five tests. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR(14) about 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231, 1.42377
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4196 prior low extends the lower-low chain from the 1.4299 CPI high.
Reclaiming the 1.4216 Asian high and 1.4223 pre-CPI high breaks the lower-high sequence; the cpi move fib 38.2 at 1.4238 sits next above.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read.
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4200 · RSI 38 · price 1.4203
Lower highs since CPI peak; tight Asian range at the lows.
The US CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound through NY and Asia as yields reversed. Price now sits below the 1.4223 pre-CPI high and under the lower-highs line. Mid-Asia, price is boxed in a 1.4200–1.4216 range and pressing the Asian low with RSI(14) near 38; the bounce has not reached the 38.2% fib at 1.4238.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42162, 1.42231
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4200 Asian low exposes the 1.4196 prior low from yesterday's London session
Recovery above the 1.4216 Asian high and the 1.4223 pre-CPI high would break the lower-highs sequence
London open in ~4h is the first test of the Asian range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4200 · RSI 40 · price 1.42037
Full retrace of CPI spike; tight Asian range 1.4200–1.4216.
The hot US CPI spike at 12:30 UTC met rejection at the 1.4299 cpi high, just under the 18-month top. The whole move then unwound in a lower-high sequence through NY and into Asia. Price is now pinned in a 16-pip Asian range between the 1.4200 asian low and 1.4216 asian high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42162, 1.42391, 1.42993
What it said to watch
BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC (~1h) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close below the 1.4200 asian low and 1.4196 prior low extends the CPI fade below the pre-release base
Reclaim of the 1.4216 asian high opens the 1.4239 swing high, the last NY lower high
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4200 · RSI 41 · price 1.42037
Lower highs since the CPI spike; tight Asian range 1.4200–1.4216.
The hot-CPI spike was rejected at 1.4299, just under the 1.4300 18-month high, and price has since unwound the entire move in a steady lower-high grind through NY and into Asia. Late Asia session is boxed between the 1.4200 asian low and the 1.4216 asian high, with RSI(14) near 41 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42391
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4200 asian low exposes the 1.4196 prior low from yesterday's Asia session
Recovery above the 1.4216 asian high and the 1.4239 swing high (38.2% of the CPI spike fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Macklem speech at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the next major risk for the pair
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 1.4200 · RSI 39 · price 1.4210
Full fade of the CPI spike; lower highs since 1.4299, Asia holding a shallow base above 1.4200.
The hot-CPI spike to 1.4299 has been fully unwound, sliding through NY and into Asia as yields faded. Price is back inside the pre-CPI range, with a session low at the 1.4200 Asia low and a minor bounce high at 1.4216 capping so far. RSI(14) is near 39 and price sits below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4216, 1.4223, 1.4239
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4216 bounce high and the 1.4223 pre-CPI high (fib 23.6) eases the downtrend read, with the fib 38.2 at 1.4239 next
A break of the 1.4200 Asia low and the 1.4196 prior low takes price out of the pre-CPI range
Macklem's remarks Thursday and US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10h away) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4200 · RSI 35 · price 1.42054
CPI spike fully retraced; tight Asian range above 1.4200.
The hot US CPI spike to 1.4299 faded steadily through NY and Asia hours and has fully unwound to the 1.4200 Asian low, below the pre-CPI high at 1.4223. Mid-Asia, price is holding a tight 1.4200–1.4216 range. The latest pop to the Asian high met rejection, and RSI(14) sits near 35.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231, 1.42377
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4196 prior low extends the post-CPI lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4223 pre-CPI high, then the 38.2% fib at 1.4238, would mark a deeper bounce in the CPI leg
BoC Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 UTC; a dovish tone could break the Asian range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off 1.4200 · RSI 37 · price 1.42139
Full fade of CPI spike, lower highs since 1.4299.
The 12:30 UTC hot US CPI spike was rejected at 1.4299 and fully unwound through NY and the Asia session as yields faded, with lower highs down to the 1.4239 swing high. Price has bounced off the 1.4200 Asian low, the 1.41964 prior low sits just beneath, and price is pressing the 1.4217 Asian high just under the EMA20. The pre-CPI high at 1.4223 lines up with the 23.6% CPI spike fib.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231, 1.42391
What it said to watch
Close above the pre-CPI high and 23.6% fib at 1.4223 opens a retrace toward the 1.4239 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4200 Asian low exposes the 1.4196 prior low and extends the lower-low chain
Macklem speech (04:15 UTC, ~2h) could materially shift this read
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC is the next volatility event
02:02 UTC
Downtrend since CPI spike, basing near 1.4200 · RSI 41 · price 1.42139
Lower highs from 1.4299, Asian low 1.4200 held, first bounce testing Asian high.
The CPI spike to 1.4299 has fully unwound through NY and early Asia as yields faded, putting price back in the pre-CPI range. The Asian low at 1.4200 held, and the last bar bounced into the 1.4217 Asian high, poking above the fade trendline.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231, 1.42385
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4200 Asian low exposes the 1.4196 pre-CPI low and resumes the lower-low chain
Hold above the 1.4223 pre-CPI high (23.6% fib) marks the first higher high since the fade; the 38.2% fib at 1.4238 sits above
Failure back under the fade trendline keeps the post-CPI lower-high sequence intact
Macklem speaks at 04:15 UTC (~2h) and could materially shift this read
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC is the next major event risk
The hot US CPI spike from 1.4209 to a 1.4299 high at 14:00 UTC faded bar by bar through NY and early Asia session. That leaves the break above the 1.4223 pre-CPI high as a false break, in line with the digest's note that yields reversed. Price is back at the 1.4200 round number, with the 01:00 UTC low at 1.4200 holding above yesterday's 1.4196 prior low and a 1.4211 swing high capping the bounce.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42111, 1.42231, 1.42391
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4196 prior low extends the lower-low chain beyond the pre-CPI base
Recovery above the 1.4211 swing high and then the 1.4223 pre-cpi high would break the descending tl sequence; the 1.4239 asian high sits above
Macklem speaks at 04:15 UTC Thursday (~2.5h) and could materially shift this read
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday (~11h) are the next major USD catalyst
The hot US CPI spike from 1.4204 to 1.4299 has been fully retraced as yields faded, with a steady lower-high chain through NY hours and into the Asia session. Price is now back at the 1.4200 session low and pre-CPI base, RSI(14) near 24, with the Asian range capped at the 1.4217 swing high and the 1.4223 pre-cpi high above that.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42231
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4217 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.4200 session low exposes the 1.4196 prior low from Wednesday's Asian session
BoC's Macklem (04:15 UTC, ~3h) and US PPI/Retail Sales (12:30 UTC, ~11h) could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after full CPI-spike unwind · RSI 21 · price 1.42028
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 rejection; price back at the pre-CPI base.
Wednesday's hot-CPI spike was rejected at 1.4299, just under the 1.4298 18-month high, and has since been fully unwound through NY and into the Asia session. Price is back at the 1.4200 round number, with the 1.4211 pre-CPI base now capping and the falling trendline from 1.4299 intact. RSI(14) near 21 shows a stretched leg, with the Asian high at 1.4239 well above.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42111, 1.42391
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4200 round number exposes the 1.4196 prior low from Wednesday's Asia session
Recovery above the 1.4211 pre-CPI base and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.4239 Asian high next overhead
BoC Governor Macklem speaks at 04:15 GMT and could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Lower highs since CPI spike; full move retraced into pre-CPI range.
The hot US CPI print spiked USDCAD from 1.4208 to 1.4299, where it was rejected just under the 1.4300 handle. A lower-high grind under a descending trendline through NY and into Asia has since erased the whole CPI leg, which fits the digest's note of yields spiking then reversing. Price sits back inside the pre-CPI 1.4196–1.4223 range, holding a 1.4203 session low twice with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.4239
What it said to watch
Macklem speaks at 04:15 UTC, about 3h out, and could materially shift this read.
An M15 close back above the 1.4223 pre-cpi high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain; the 1.4239 lower high is next above.
Failure to hold the 1.4203 session low exposes the 1.4196 prior low and the 1.4200 round number.
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into pre-CPI base · RSI 27 · price 1.42083
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-CPI NY high.
USD/CAD has given back the whole CPI spike. Price ground lower from the 1.4299 NY high through NY afternoon and early Asia, under a descending trendline, as the post-CPI reversal in Treasury yields unwound the move, and is now retesting the 1.4204 pre-cpi base. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme, and the 1.4217 breakdown level is capping the first Asia bounce.
Support: 1.42041, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42166, 1.42391
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4196 prior low extends the downtrend beneath the pre-cpi base and the 1.4200 handle
Recovery through the 1.4217 breakdown level and the trendline would break the lower-high chain, with the 1.4239 swing high next
BoC Macklem remarks (Thu 04:15 GMT) could materially shift CAD within the Asian session
US PPI / retail sales at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.42098
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-CPI peak; CPI spike fully unwound.
The hot US core CPI lifted USD/CAD from the 1.4204 cpi base to 1.4299 in the first hour of NY. Price has since printed lower highs along a falling trendline, giving back the whole spike despite the broad USD bid, and the 1.4223 pre-cpi high break now reads as a false break. Early Asia session has it at 1.4210 with RSI(14) near 24, just above the cpi base and the prior asia low at 1.4196.
Support: 1.4204, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.4239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4196 asia low extends the lower-low chain below the pre-CPI range
Recovery above the 1.4223 pre-cpi high and the falling trendline invalidates the downtrend read; the 1.4239 late-NY swing high is next
RSI(14) in the low-20s: a bounce from the 1.4204 cpi base would mark the first higher low since the CPI peak
Macklem remarks flagged in the CAD digest and US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 22 · price 1.42115
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 CPI peak; CPI move fully retraced.
The hot US CPI spike from the 1.4204 cpi bar low to 1.4299 has been fully retraced. Price slid through NY hours and the post-close in a lower-high chain under the descending trendline, and now sits at the 1.4211 post-cpi low as Asia opens with RSI(14) near 22. The 1.4204 cpi bar low and the 1.4196 asian low are the remaining pre-release floors.
Support: 1.42113, 1.42035, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42231, 1.42391
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4223 london high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4204 cpi bar low and the 1.4196 asian low takes price below the full pre-CPI range
Swing high at 1.4239 caps any rebound attempt inside the decline
BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; a dovish lean undercuts the CAD recovery
US PPI / retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD catalyst after the full CPI retrace
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after full CPI retrace · RSI 22 · price 1.42115
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4299 CPI peak.
The hot US CPI spike from the 1.4204 cpi bar low to 1.4299 has been fully unwound through NY and into early Asia via a steady lower-high sequence. The fade tracks the reversal in Treasury yields flagged in the macro read. Price now sits below the 1.4223 pre-CPI high with RSI(14) oversold near 22, and the 1.4204 cpi bar low and 1.4196 Asia low are the next references below.
Support: 1.42035, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42231, 1.42391
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4204 cpi bar low exposes the 1.4196 Asia low and the 1.4200 handle
M15 close back above the 1.4223 pre-cpi high, then the 1.4239 lower high, breaks the lower-high chain
BoC Governor Macklem speaks early Thursday and could materially shift CAD pricing
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read