19:05 UTC
Uptrend off the Q1 low, inside a broad multi-quarter range · RSI 51 · price 1.4009
Higher lows since January within 1.3480-1.4250 range; price reclaiming 1.4000.
Regime is a broad 1.3480-1.4250 range that has held for roughly six quarters, with a rising sequence of higher lows since the January 2026 low at 1.3481 — price now sits in the upper half after a second consecutive weekly gain closed back above the 1.4000 psych level. Weekly EMA(50) near 1.3900 is flat-to-rising and price holds above it, so the macro structure that lifted spot to the 1.4248 2026 high in June remains intact after the summer pullback into 1.3732. The driver is rate differentials rather than energy: the hawkish Fed hike to 4% widened the Fed/BoC gap to roughly 175bp and left CAD the G10 laggard even with crude above $100, while W1 RSI near 51 is mid-range and offers no signal at this scale.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3732, 1.3481
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4415
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above the 1.4248 2026 high would extend the range toward the 1.4415 prior yr high
- Failure to hold 1.3900 (ema50) would put the higher-low sequence and the 1.3732 swing low back in play
- BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the main test of the rate-differential story behind this leg
- Rejection at the 1.4000 psych level would keep spot mid-range rather than trending