Higher lows since Wednesday, capped by 1.4014 week high.
The week's entire move came in one bar: Wednesday's FOMC hike and hawkish dot-plot upgrade lifted USDCAD from 1.39197 to 1.39932, and price has consolidated in a tight 1.3973–1.4014 band ever since, holding well above EMA50. The Friday NY session pushed to the 1.40140 week high but the 1.4000 psych level was rejected late in the day, leaving the last four bars back under EMA20 near 1.3990 with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s. Higher lows from 1.39734 through the prior-day low at 1.39790 are still intact, so the post-FOMC breakout has not been given back.
Support: 1.3979, 1.39734, 1.39345
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the first CAD catalyst and could materially shift this read
Hourly closes back above 1.39970 (ema20) and 1.4000 psych would re-engage the 1.40140 week high
A close below 1.39790 prior-day low breaks the higher-lows sequence and opens the 1.39734 swing low
Sustained acceptance under 1.39734 would put the pre-gap area near 1.39345 back in play
Two-day range capped by 1.4014 week high, price back under EMA20.
The week's dominant move was a single hour: Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC hike and hawkish dot revision lifted USDCAD from 1.3935 to 1.3993, and price has done nothing but consolidate in a 1.3973–1.4014 band since. Friday's London-into-NY push tagged a marginal week high at 1.4014 but could not hold it, with supply capping the 1.4005/1.4014 area on three separate attempts before the pair faded back under the 1.4000 psych level and the EMA20 at 1.3997 into the NY close. RSI(14) has slipped back to the high-40s from the post-FOMC extreme even as highs crept up — the impulse has flattened out rather than extended.
Support: 1.39758, 1.39734, 1.39345
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4000 and the ema20 is needed before the 1.4014 week high is in play again
Loss of Friday's 1.3976 low and the 1.3973 thu low would break the two-day range floor, exposing the 1.3935 pre-fomc shelf
BoC Macklem speech Monday 15:00 UTC is the first event risk capable of resolving this range
Four-day consolidation capped by 1.4014 week high, rising lows intact.
The dominant move of the week came in one bar on Wednesday's post-FOMC repricing, when the pair gapped from 1.39197 and closed near 1.3993, and price has since done nothing but consolidate in a ~40 pip band between the 1.39734 range low and the 1.40140 week high. Yesterday's NY session pushed to that week high before supply capped the move, and today's grind back under the 1.4000 round number leaves the last close a touch below EMA(20) with RSI(14) idling near 54. Rising lows off Thursday's base still hold, but the two attempts above 1.4010 have both been faded.
Support: 1.3993, 1.39734, 1.39197
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40140 week high would extend the post-FOMC leg toward the 1.4050 next barrier
An H1 close below the 1.39734 range low would break the four-day consolidation and the rising-lows structure
Loss of the 1.39930 session low on a closing basis would put the range floor back in play
BoC Macklem Monday 15:00 UTC is the main CAD-side event risk to this range read
Higher highs since Monday's open, now compressing under the week high.
The week's dominant move came in one bar: the hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot shift lifted USDCAD roughly 70 pips out of the 1.3930s and through the pre-FOMC high at 1.39463, after which price has spent two full sessions grinding sideways in a 1.3975–1.4014 consolidation. The NY session has done most of the recent work, tagging a week high at 1.40140 before closing back at the 1.4000 psychological pivot with RSI(14) mid-50s and no new high on the last push. Price is sitting directly on the H1 EMA(20) near 1.39985, which has caught every pullback since Wednesday.
Support: 1.39985, 1.39758, 1.39463
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40140 would extend the week high and expose the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 1.39985 followed by a break of the 1.39758 prior-day low would end the higher-low sequence
BoC Macklem speaking Monday 15:00 UTC is the first event capable of forcing a rejection at the 1.4000 area
Failure to reclaim 1.4000 on repeated attempts would turn the two-day consolidation into a distribution range rather than continuation
16:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 66 · price 1.40077
Higher lows since Monday; breakout from a 40-bar 1.3979-1.4001 range.
Price has climbed in a stair-step fashion from Monday's 1.3897 session low, with the decisive leg coming on the hawkish FOMC hike to 4% that ripped H1 from 1.3920 to 1.3993 in a single bar. The following two days coiled in a tight 1.3979-1.4001 band before the NY session today pushed through the 1.4000 psych pivot to a week high at 1.40140, and pullbacks have been holding the ema20 near 1.3995. RSI(14) at ~66 is firm without being stretched, and ATR of roughly 9 pips shows momentum is being carried by grind rather than impulse.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39955, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40140 week high would open the path to the 1.4050 prior barrier and 1.4080 extension
An hourly close back under 1.4000 psych and the ema20 would put the breakout read in question, with 1.39734 range low the next reference
BoC Macklem speaks Mon 15:00 UTC — the main near-term catalyst capable of reshaping this structure
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's FOMC bar.
The week's impulse came in a single hour on Wednesday, when the FOMC bar ran 1.3920 to 1.3993 and reset the range; Thursday was consolidation between roughly 1.3979 and 1.3996 before the London session today carried price through the 1.4000 psych level. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 1.4002 with RSI(14) around 65, and the 1.4014 week high now caps a six-to-seven session run driven by the Fed hike against a BoC on hold, spread near 175bp. Chain of higher lows from 1.3973 remains intact.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3979, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.40139, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below 1.4000 psych would negate today's breakout and return price into Thursday's consolidation
Loss of the 1.3979 day low, then the 1.3973 range low, would break the higher-lows sequence
A close above the 1.4014 week high puts 1.4050 next ref in play
BoC Macklem speech Monday 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled event capable of shifting this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh leg higher · RSI 66 · price 1.40081
Range break above 1.4000, higher lows intact.
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's post-FOMC jump, which lifted USDCAD roughly 70 pips in a single hour and reset the market into a 1.3975–1.4000 range for the following day and a half. That range broke in the NY session, with price now grinding along a 1.4014 week high and holding above a rising EMA(20) near 1.3997, RSI(14) at 66 and ATR(14) around 8.5 pips. Policy divergence — the Fed's hike against a BoC parked on hold — plus softer crude removing the commodity cushion is the backdrop for the break of the 1.4000 psych level.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3975, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Sustained acceptance above 1.4014 keeps the path toward the 1.4050 round number open
An hourly close back below 1.4000 psych and the EMA(20) would flag the break as a false one
Loss of the 1.3975 range low breaks the higher-lows sequence off Wednesday's gap
BoC Governor Macklem speech Monday 15:00 UTC is the nearest CAD-specific catalyst and could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 63 · price 1.40055
Higher lows out of a two-day consolidation, fresh highs.
The dominant move of the week came in a single hour on Wednesday's FOMC hike, which lifted USDCAD from 1.3920 to 1.3993 and then went nowhere for two days, coiling in a 1.3973–1.3998 consolidation. London hours today broke that range with hawkish Fedspeak reinforcing the widened Fed-BoC spread, tagging a session high at 1.4014 and leaving price above both EMA(20) at ~1.3995 and EMA(50). RSI(14) at 63 has cycled from the low 40s during Thursday's drift without reaching overbought, and the higher-lows sequence off 1.3973 is intact.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3995, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC lands as the NY session opens and is the only US data left this week
An hourly close back under the 1.4000 psych level and EMA(20) would put the breakout back inside the prior consolidation
Loss of 1.3973 range low breaks the higher-lows sequence built since Thursday
Acceptance above the 1.4014 session high exposes the 1.4050 barrier, then 1.4080
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 67 · price 1.40106
Higher lows since Wednesday's impulse, breakout from a two-day 1.3979-1.4005 range.
The dominant move of the week was Wednesday's hawkish FOMC hike, which lifted USDCAD in a single hour from 1.3920 to 1.3993 and set the floor for everything since. Price then spent roughly two sessions coiling between the range low at 1.3979 and 1.4005 before the London session today pushed through the 1.4000 handle to a fresh week high at 1.4014. RSI(14) near 67 with price holding above EMA(20) around 1.3993, and each pullback this week has been shallower than the last.
Support: 1.3993, 1.3979, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4014 week high would put the 1.4050 round number in view
An hourly close back below 1.3979 range low would invalidate the breakout read and re-open the post-FOMC range
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3993 would be the first break of this week's higher-low sequence, with prior resistance at 1.3950 the next structural reference
BoC Macklem speaks Monday 15:00 UTC — the main scheduled risk to the current structure
Higher highs / higher lows since Wednesday's FOMC breakout; two-day range now resolving up.
USDCAD drifted higher from Monday's 1.38861 low, but the week was defined by Wednesday's NY session FOMC bar — a ~73-pip impulse off the 1.39463 prior high that reset the whole range higher after the hawkish hike. The two sessions since have been a tight consolidation between the 1.39734 swing low and the 1.4000 handle, with EMA(20) near 1.3993 catching each pullback and RSI(14) cycling 45–65 with no divergence. Today's London session has printed a new week high at 1.40072, clearing the 1.4000 round number on ATR of barely 7 pips.
Support: 1.3993, 1.39734, 1.39463
Resistance: 1.40072, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40072 week high opens the 1.4050 round-number area
Hourly closes back under EMA(20) at 1.3993 would leave the 1.4000 break looking like a false break
Loss of the 1.39734 swing low breaks the post-FOMC higher-low sequence
BoC Macklem speech Monday 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled event capable of reshaping this structure
The week's single decisive move came in one bar during Wednesday's NY session, when the pair jumped from 1.39197 to 1.39932 on the hawkish Fed hike against an on-hold BoC — everything since has been a 30-pip consolidation pinned under the 1.4000 psych level. Price has held above EMA(20) near 1.39900 for the last two sessions, with a higher low at 1.39790 after Thursday's 1.39734 range floor and RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s to low-60s rather than pushing to extremes. ATR(14) has compressed to under 7 pips, and the week high at 1.40053 has capped three attempts including this London session.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3979, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.40053, 1.4000, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.40053 week high opens the path toward 1.40500
Loss of the 1.39734 range floor would break the higher-low sequence and put EMA(20) support behind price
BoC Governor Macklem Monday 15:00 UTC is the next high-impact event for this pair and could materially shift the read
Higher lows since Wednesday's impulse, coiling under 1.4000.
The dominant move of the week came in a single hour on Wednesday's US session, when the hawkish Fed hike and the widened Fed/BoC gap lifted the pair from 1.3920 to 1.3993; everything since has been a tight consolidation between the 1.3973 swing low and the 1.40034 week high. Price is back above EMA20 near 1.3989 after Thursday's NY dip into the 1.3979 range floor was bought, with RSI(14) cycling in the 45–65 band rather than pushing to extremes. Asia hours have parked the pair on the 1.4000 handle on minimal range, leaving the week's fifth attempt at that level unresolved.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3979, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.40034, 1.4050
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.40034 week high would extend the range break toward the 1.4050 next supply area
Failure to hold the 1.3973 swing low would break the higher-low sequence built since Wednesday's impulse
Loss of EMA20 near 1.3989 on a closing basis flips the consolidation read to distribution below the range floor
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled event inside the next few bars that could move this structure
Monday through Wednesday traded a tight 1.3890–1.3946 band before Wednesday's NY session produced a single-bar 70-pip gap-and-run to 1.3993 on the hawkish Fed hike, and price has not given any of it back. The last two sessions are pure consolidation between the 1.39734 range floor and the 1.4000 psych level, with the week high at 1.40034 printed in the latest London hours and EMA(20) near 1.3988 acting as the pullback shelf. RSI(14) at 58 has cycled 45–62 inside the range rather than extending, matching the flat highs into the 1.4000 cap.
Support: 1.3988, 1.39734, 1.39463
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40034, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40034 converts the week high into support and opens the 1.4050 upside obj
Loss of the 1.39734 range floor with a close below EMA(20) at 1.3988 breaks the higher-lows sequence
Only a move back under 1.39463, the pre-gap high, would fully reverse the FOMC impulse
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT today is the only near-term catalyst; BoC Macklem Monday 15:00 GMT is the larger risk to this range read
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, paused in high consolidation · RSI 57 · price 1.39949
Post-FOMC breakout holding a tight 1.3973–1.4001 range.
The dominant move of the week came in Wednesday's NY session, when the Fed's hike to 4.00% and the wider Fed/BoC spread drove a single-hour 70-pip impulse from 1.3920 to 1.3993 and lifted price clear of the pre-FOMC drift around 1.3935. Since then USD/CAD has spent roughly 37 bars in a tight range between the 1.3973 range low and the 1.4001 week high, with softer crude no longer helping CAD and EMA(20) flattening at 1.3989 as pullbacks keep finding it. Early London has pushed price back to the top of that range at 1.3995 with RSI(14) near 57 — higher than at the prior test of 1.4001, but the psych 1.4000 line is still unbroken.
Support: 1.39885, 1.39734, 1.39345
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.40010 week high would extend the post-FOMC breakout toward the 1.4050 upper zone
Loss of the 1.39734 range low, with ema20 at 1.39885 giving way, would end the high consolidation read
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT fall within the next few bars and could resolve the range
A drift back under 1.39345 pre-fomc would fully unwind the divergence move
Higher highs since Monday, now a tight consolidation shelf under 1.4000.
The dominant move of the week was a single-bar vertical expansion into the NY session on Wednesday's Fed hike, which took price from the 1.3934 breakout base straight to 1.3993 and left the Fed/BoC spread story in the driver's seat. Since then USDCAD has spent roughly 35 bars grinding in a 1.3973–1.4001 shelf, with the week high at 1.4001 capping three attempts and pullbacks repeatedly stalling on EMA(20) near 1.3988. RSI(14) has flattened in the low-to-mid 50s as ATR compressed to ~7 pips, so this is range behaviour beneath the 1.4000 psych line rather than continuation.
Support: 1.3988, 1.39734, 1.39345
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4000, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4001 week high would end the consolidation and open the 1.4050 next zone
Loss of the 1.39734 session low, with EMA20 turning over, breaks the shelf floor and puts 1.3934 breakout base back in view
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT are the near-term catalysts for this range
BoC Macklem on Monday is the first official CAD-side risk to the post-FOMC structure
Higher base since Tuesday, now a tight range with lower highs under 1.4000.
The dominant move of the week was a single NY-session hour on Tuesday, when the hawkish Fed hike and higher dot path drove a post-FOMC impulse from the 1.39197 FOMC bar low straight to 1.3993, clearing the prior 1.39463 pre-break high. Since then price has spent roughly 35 hours in a 27-pip band between the 1.39734 range floor and the 1.40010 week high, with the 175bp Fed/BoC gap and softer crude keeping CAD as the laggard but producing no fresh extension. Price is now marginally under the H1 ema20 near 1.39880 with RSI(14) in the low 40s, the flattest reading since the breakout.
Support: 1.39734, 1.39463, 1.39197
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4001
What it said to watch
An hourly close above 1.40010 would end the consolidation and put the 1.4050 area in play
Loss of the 1.39734 range floor turns the post-FOMC breakout into a false break and re-exposes 1.39463
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.39880 is the first sign the lower-highs sequence is breaking
BoJ decision pre-London, Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC can all reprice this range within the next few bars
Lower highs under 1.4000 after the gap-up impulse, base at 1.39734.
Wednesday's post-FOMC leg opened with a gap through 1.3950 and ran straight to 1.39932, the Fed-hike-versus-BoC-on-hold spread doing the work while softer oil kept CAD on the back foot. Price has since spent two sessions compressed in a 1.39734–1.40010 band, with the week high at 1.40010 stalling three attempts and the 1.4000 psych line still unbroken. This Asia session has leaked back under the EMA20 near 1.39889 with RSI(14) down in the mid-30s — the tightest ATR of the week at roughly 7 pips.
Support: 1.39734, 1.39463, 1.39197
Resistance: 1.39889, 1.4001, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40010 clears the week high and the 1.4000 psych line, opening the 1.4050 area
Loss of the 1.39734 swing low breaks the two-session range floor and puts the gap edge at 1.39463 back in view
Reclaiming the EMA20 near 1.39889 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem Monday 15:00 UTC and US Industrial Production later today are the events that could dislodge this range
Higher highs into a two-day consolidation under 1.4000.
USDCAD is up roughly 110 pips from Monday's 1.3873 open, but almost the entire directional move was compressed into a single hour on Wednesday's FOMC print, when the hawkish hike and the widening Fed/BoC spread lifted price off the 1.3935 pre-FOMC shelf to 1.3993 in one bar. The 33 hours since have been pure consolidation between the 1.39734 range floor and the 1.40010 week high, with softer crude removing any CAD offset. RSI(14) has flattened near 52 and price has slipped marginally under EMA20 at 1.3988 during the Asia session, while EMA50 near 1.3975 sits at the range floor.
Support: 1.3979, 1.39734, 1.39345
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4001, 1.4050
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.40010 week high clears the 1.4000 psych line and opens the 1.4050/1.4125 next zone
Loss of the 1.39734 range floor, which coincides with EMA50, would break the consolidation and invalidate the continuation read
Reclaiming EMA20 at 1.3988 would keep price in the upper half of the range
BoC Governor Macklem Monday 15:00 UTC is the nearest scheduled CAD catalyst after firmer core CPI
The week's dominant move was a single-bar impulse from 1.39197 to 1.39932 into the NY session on the post-FOMC policy-divergence story, with the Fed hiking to 4.00% against an on-hold BoC and softer crude keeping CAD on the back foot. Since then price has spent roughly 30 hours coiling in a 1.39734–1.4001 band, with the 1.4000 psych line and the 1.4001 range top capping three attempts and demand stepping in around the 1.3979 range floor. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-40s and the last closes sit marginally under EMA(20) at ~1.3988, so the breakout is being digested rather than extended.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3979, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4001 range top opens the 1.4050 next zone
Failure to hold the 1.3979 range floor and then 1.39734 swing low confirms the first lower low since Wednesday's impulse
Reclaiming ema20 at ~1.3988 on a closing basis restores the upper half of the range
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC and Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC could break the 27-pip consolidation; BoC Macklem Monday 15:00 UTC is the next CAD-side risk
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalled at the highs · RSI 48 · price 1.3988
Higher highs since Monday, now a tight range beneath the week high.
USDCAD ground higher all week off 1.3867 before a single impulsive bar into the NY session on Thursday lifted price from the 1.3920 gap open to 1.3993 — the post-FOMC dollar bid plus 196K US jobless claims, with soft crude giving CAD no offset. Since that breakout the pair has done nothing but coil in a 1.39734–1.40010 band for some 30 bars, price oscillating either side of EMA(20) with RSI(14) unwinding from overbought back to the high-40s while holding well above EMA(50). The 1.4000 psychological handle and the week high at 1.40010 have capped three attempts, the latest in yesterday's NY hours.
Support: 1.39734, 1.39205, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4050
What it said to watch
An hourly close above 1.40010 clears the week high and opens the 1.4050 next ref area
Loss of the 1.39734 range low would be the first lower-low since Thursday's breakout and puts the 1.3920 gap open back in play
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the main scheduled risk to this consolidation read
Repeated rejection at the psychological handle with RSI(14) drifting below 40 would flatten the weekly advance
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday, now compressed under the 1.4000 handle.
USDCAD has ground higher all week from the 1.3867 area, with the decisive leg coming in a single NY-session bar that jumped from 1.3920 to 1.3993 as the post-FOMC dollar bid and the strong US claims print widened the Fed/BoC gap. Since that breakout price has done nothing but consolidate in a 1.3973–1.4001 band, holding the EMA(20) around 1.3989 on every dip while RSI(14) has flattened near 50. The week high at 1.4001 and the 1.4000 psych handle have capped three attempts, and the closing Asia-session bars are extremely thin.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3973, 1.3946
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4000, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4000 psych handle would extend the breakout toward the 1.4050 next ref area
Loss of 1.3973 swing low would be the first break of this week's higher-low sequence and put the pre-break hi at 1.3946 back in focus
Sustained trade back below the 1.3989 ema20 would flatten the consolidation into a range read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT today is the nearest scheduled risk to this consolidation; BoC's Macklem on Monday is the larger CAD-side event