Post-FOMC breakout consolidating; higher lows but capped at week high.
The hawkish Fed hike on Wednesday's 18:00 UTC bar drove a ~60 pip breakout off the pre-fomc top near 1.39345, and Thursday-Friday resolved into a 1.3973–1.4014 consolidation pinned around the 1.4000 psych level. Friday's NY session produced a rejection at the 1.4014 week high and the pair closed back under EMA20 at ~1.39940, with RSI(14) cycling down to ~44. Monday's Asia open has recovered to 1.39902, keeping the higher lows off the thu low at 1.39734 and friday low at 1.39758 intact for now.
Support: 1.39758, 1.39734, 1.39345
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to this consolidation read
H1 close above the 1.40140 week high would extend the post-fomc leg
Reclaiming EMA20 at 1.39940 and holding the 1.4000 psych level would neutralise Friday's rejection
Loss of the friday low at 1.39758 and thu low at 1.39734 breaks the higher lows sequence
Range 1.3973-1.4014 with lower highs into Friday's close.
The dominant move of the week was a single hawkish-FOMC repricing bar that gapped USDCAD from the 1.3934 area to 1.3993 and left the pair chopping in a tight 1.3973-1.4014 band for the following three sessions. NY hours on Thursday and Friday produced the week high at 1.40140 but each push through the round number was rejected, and price closed the week back under the ema20 near 1.3993 with RSI(14) at ~39 — the softest reading since the gap. Sunday's reopening bars are holding just above the friday low at 1.39790, keeping the range intact rather than extending.
Support: 1.3979, 1.39734, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40140 would end the lower-highs sequence and re-open the 1.4050 area
Loss of the 1.39734 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes prior support at 1.39450
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the week's first CAD-side catalyst and could materially shift this range read
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.3993 would neutralise the Friday fade
21:05 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading into the weekly close · RSI 39 · price 1.39819
Higher highs/higher lows since Wednesday, but first close back under EMA20.
The week's dominant move was a single Wednesday 21:00 broker-time impulse bar on the hawkish Fed hike, which lifted USDCAD roughly 70 pips and set the base for a slow grind to the 1.40140 week high during Friday's NY session. That push failed to hold: the last four hours of the week faded back through the 1.4000 psych pivot and closed at 1.39819, the first hourly close below EMA20 since Thursday, with RSI(14) down near 39 and making a lower peak against the higher price high — profit-taking flagged in the digest rather than any fresh CAD demand. Friday low at 1.39758 and Thursday low at 1.39734 are the nearest reference points beneath price.
Support: 1.39758, 1.39734, 1.39197
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above EMA20 near 1.3996 and the 1.4000 psych pivot would re-assert the week's higher-high sequence toward 1.40140
Failure to hold 1.39758 then 1.39734 breaks the higher-low sequence built off the fomc bar low
BoC Macklem Mon 15:00 UTC is the first CAD-side catalyst of the new week and can reset this read quickly