21:06 UTC
Four-month downtrend basing, three-week recovery leg · RSI 63 · price 1.39819
Higher lows since the 1.3732 cycle low, price reclaimed the ema50 zone.
The dominant move in this window was the slide from 1.4248 to 1.3732, but that leg has stalled into a double bottom (1.3732, then 1.3760) and the last three weeks have built a chain of higher lows, with price reclaiming the ema50 zone near 1.3900 after the hawkish Fed hike left the Fed/BoC gap near 175bp against an on-hold BoC. Two consecutive weekly gains have carried the pair into the 1.4000 psych level, where this week's 1.4014 high sits — also the 50% retracement of the 1.4248–1.3732 downswing, with 1.4051 the 61.8 fib just above. RSI(14) near 62 is firm without being overbought, and daily ATR around 60 pips means 1.4000 and the 61.8 fib are within a single session's range.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3760, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4051, 1.4126
What it said to watch
- Sustained daily closes above 1.4000 and the 61.8 fib at 1.4051 would extend the recovery toward the 1.4126 swing high
- Repeated rejection at 1.4000 with a close back under the ema50 zone at 1.3900 restores the lower-high sequence
- Loss of the 1.3760 swing low would negate the double bottom and re-expose the 1.3732 cycle low
- BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the two events capable of reshaping this weekly read