Higher highs/higher lows off the reopen low, still under Friday's range mid.
Thin Sunday-reopen/Asia-open tape: price based at 1.39783 and has ground up in an almost unbroken HH/HL chain to 1.3993, reclaiming the 1.3982 friday close and now pressing the 1.3995 friday pivot just under the 1.4000 psych pivot. ATR(14) is only ~3 pips and volumes are a fraction of Friday's, so the move is a drift rather than a driven leg; RSI(14) near 61 with price above EMA20 but still capped by EMA50 around 1.3995.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3978
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4000 psych pivot would re-expose Friday's 1.4014 high
Rejection at the 1.3995 friday pivot keeps the reopen grind corrective
Loss of 1.3982 friday close, then 1.3978 session low, invalidates the higher-low sequence
Reopen liquidity is thin — levels carry less weight until London participation arrives
Macklem 15:00 UTC is the session's CAD event risk and could reset this read
23:32 UTC
Grinding higher off the week's opening low, momentum thin · RSI 57 · price 1.3993
HH/HL chain since the reopen, still capped under 1.4000.
Friday faded from the 1.4014 fri high into the close, and the new week reopened with a small gap and a session low at 1.3978 before an eleven-bar grind back to 1.3993, back above the ema20 but still under the 1.4000 psych pivot. Volumes are minimal in these opening Asia bars and ATR(14) is only ~4 pips, so the advance is mechanical rather than driven — the hawkish-Fed/on-hold-BoC spread remains the underlying story.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3989
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above the 1.4000 psych level would put the 1.4014 fri high back in play
Loss of the 1.3978 session low breaks the HH/HL chain built since the reopen
BoC Macklem 15:00 UTC is the session's main event risk and could reset this intraday read
Thin liquidity at the reopen means the current grind can be reversed on the first real London flow
23:17 UTC
Micro uptrend off the reopen low, thin liquidity · RSI 57 · price 1.39919
Higher highs / higher lows since the Asia reopen, still under Friday's late supply.
Friday faded from 1.40140 into a 1.39808 close, and the Asia reopen has ground back up in a tight higher-low chain from the 1.39783 session low to 1.39919, price back above EMA20 but still under EMA50. Volumes and a 3.3-pip ATR flag this as thin early-session drift rather than a genuine impulse; the 1.39960 prior high and the 1.40000 psych pivot cap the move, consistent with the hawkish-Fed/on-hold-BoC spread that has pinned the pair near 1.40.
Support: 1.3982, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.39960 puts the 1.40000 psych level back in play
Loss of the 1.39783 session low breaks the reopen higher-low chain
BoC Macklem at 15:00 UTC is the session's main event risk and could reshape this read
ATR at 3.3 pips — levels can be cleared on very little flow until London
23:05 UTC
Friday downtrend, early asia grinding higher · RSI 51 · price 1.39902
Lower highs into friday close, short higher-low chain off the asia low.
Friday's NY session bled from the 1.40140 friday high down to the 1.39808 friday low, and early Monday Asia has reclaimed nine pips off the 1.39783 asia low on very thin volume, back above EMA20 with RSI(14) at 51. Post-FOMC USD demand keeps the 1.4000 psych pivot the reference point; nothing structural until either the prior high at 1.39950 or the asia low gives way.
Support: 1.39808, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39950 prior high would break Friday's lower-high chain and re-open the 1.4000 psych pivot
Loss of 1.39783 asia low confirms the downtrend leg is extending rather than basing
Liquidity is thin at the Asia open — early ranges here often get overwritten once London arrives
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the session's main CAD-side event risk to this read
22:47 UTC
Recovering off the weekend low, micro higher-highs · RSI 54 · price 1.39887
Compression under Friday's 1.3995 supply; HH/HL chain since 1.39783.
Thin new-week open gapped marginally lower to 1.39783 before Asia session grinding reclaimed Friday's 1.39819 close, price now pressing 1.39887 with a shallow HH/HL chain and RSI(14) back at mid-range. Structure is still capped by Friday's 1.3995 prior supply, the shelf that preceded the drop from 1.40140 friday high; ATR(14) near 4 pips reflects holiday-thin liquidity, not directional conviction.
Support: 1.39783, 1.39819
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.39950 prior supply reopens the 1.40000 psych level
Failure to hold 1.39783 session low confirms a lower low on the intraday chain
BoC Macklem 15:00 UTC Monday is the session's main CAD-side event risk and could reset this read
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising at Asia open · RSI 46 · price 1.39872
Lower highs off 1.40140, fresh low 1.39783 then shallow recovery.
Friday's NY hours faded the pair from 1.40140 back under the 1.40 psych pivot, and Monday's thin Asia open extended to a 1.39783 session low before grinding back to 1.39872 — still pinned under the EMA20 at 1.39884 with the 1.39950 prior swing as the next cap. RSI(14) mid-40s, ATR(14) only ~4 pips, so the recovery is drift rather than impulse with the Fed/BoC spread story already well owned.
Support: 1.39783, 1.39758
Resistance: 1.39884, 1.3995, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.39950 prior swing would be the first break in the lower-high chain and reopen the 1.40 psych pivot
Failure to hold 1.39783 session low, then 1.39758 friday low, confirms downside continuation
Macklem speech at 15:00 UTC is the session's main CAD-side risk and can reset this intraday read
22:17 UTC
Downtrend off 1.40140, stabilising at the open · RSI 41 · price 1.39853
Lower highs into Friday close, Monday Asia basing above 1.39783.
Friday's NY session rejected the 1.40140 high and bled lower through the afternoon, closing on its low at 1.39808 despite the wider hawkish-Fed/soft-BoC backdrop. Monday's Asia open dipped to 1.39783 and has since ground back to 1.39853 in very thin conditions — ATR(14) just 3.7 pips, RSI(14) ~41, price still under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.39808, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.39862, 1.39953, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39862 session high would break the lower-high chain running from 1.40140
Acceptance back over the 1.39953 prior swing puts the 1.40000 psych pivot back in play
Loss of the 1.39783 wk open low extends Friday's decline below the friday low
ATR of 3.7 pips reflects Asia-open illiquidity; expect ranges to widen at the London open
BoC Macklem at 15:00 UTC is the main CAD event risk beyond this session
Lower highs into a tight Asia-open range above 1.39783.
Friday's NY hours bled the pair from 1.40140 down through the 1.40000 psych level to a 1.39758 swing low, leaving a clean chain of lower highs; the thin Asia open has since based at 1.39783 and is grinding back to 1.39847, still under EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) at 3.9 pips and RSI(14) near 35 describe a compressed, low-participation range rather than fresh directional pressure.
Support: 1.39783, 1.39758
Resistance: 1.39862, 1.39921, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39862 session high, then 1.39921 prior high, would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.39783 session low exposes the 1.39758 swing low
BoC Macklem 15:00 UTC is the day's main CAD-side event risk and can reset this range
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4014 rejection; thin Sunday reopen basing.
Friday's rejection at 1.4014 rolled price back under the 1.4000 psych pivot, with the 1.39950 friday shelf and the 1.39886 broken shelf both lost on the late-session slide. Sunday's thin reopen tagged a 1.39783 session low before a shallow bounce to 1.39838; RSI(14) near 32, price under EMA20 and EMA50, ATR(14) only ~3.8 pips in illiquid conditions.
Support: 1.39783, 1.39758
Resistance: 1.39886, 1.3995, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.39783 session low exposes the 1.39758 friday low
A reclaim of the 1.39886 broken shelf would break the lower-high chain
Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the CAD-side catalyst that could reprice this range
ATR(14) at ~3.8 pips reflects Sunday liquidity — ranges likely widen at the Asia open
21:31 UTC
Downtrend into the weekend close, momentum stalled · RSI 27 · price 1.3980
Lower highs / lower lows off 1.4014; thin Sunday-open bars flat near the lows.
Friday's NY session rejected the 1.4014 friday high and bled back under the 1.40 psych level, closing near 1.3982 with price below ema20 and RSI(14) down near 27. The Sunday reopen has gapped a pip lower and gone flat in a 1-2 pip range just above the friday low at 1.39758 — no intraday structure in play yet, ATR(14) around 3.5 pips reflects holiday-thin conditions.
Support: 1.39783, 1.39758
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.39783 sunday low and then 1.39758 confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.3990 and a close back above 1.40000 would invalidate the lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the first scheduled catalyst and could reprice this range quickly
Liquidity is minimal on the Sunday bars — early-Asia flows may widen the range materially from these levels
21:17 UTC
Short-term downtrend off Friday's high · RSI 26 · price 1.39805
Lower highs / lower lows since 1.40140, thin Sunday open extending the fade.
Friday's NY session rejected 1.4014 and bled lower into the close, and the thin Sunday open has pushed a fraction further to 1.39783 before settling at 1.39805 — below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 26. Sequence of lower highs from 1.40136 is intact; the 1.40 psych pivot, which capped the whole move, is the level that matters overhead. ATR(14) at ~3.4 pips is compressed and Sunday-thin, so ranges are unreliable until London.
Support: 1.39783, 1.39758, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3991, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.39758 friday low confirms a fresh lower low
M15 close back above the 1.3991 prior pivot, then 1.4000 psych, invalidates the downtrend read
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the main CAD-side event risk and could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum accelerating into the close · RSI 27 · price 1.39819
Lower highs / lower lows since the 1.4014 day high.
The NY afternoon rolled over after 1.40140 was matched at 1.40136, and USDCAD then lost both the 1.40000 psych level and the 1.39950 prior shelf, closing at the session low of 1.39819 with RSI(14) near 27. Post-FOMC dollar strength had carried the London leg up from 1.39758, but Friday profit-taking retraced the entire move; ATR(14) is just ~3.7 pips, so this is a thin late-session tape.
Support: 1.39808, 1.39758
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.39950 prior shelf would negate the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.39758 asia low extends the lower-low chain
BoC Macklem speech Mon 15:00 UTC is the first event risk after the weekend break