Series of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, holding above the 1.4000 area.
USDCAD has climbed in a shallow channel of higher lows from 1.39783 at Monday's Asia open to a week high at 1.40386 during the NY session, with the 1.4000 psych level now acting as a floor rather than a cap after last week's break. The move fits the 175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap and softer crude keeping CAD offered; pullbacks have been shallow and have held the rising EMA(20) near 1.4022. RSI(14) at ~57 is mid-range and has flattened even as price posted a fresh high, so the upward drift is being carried by small ~9 pip bars rather than impulse.
Support: 1.4022, 1.4000, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40386 week high opens the 1.4050 round number
An hourly close back below the 1.4022 ema20 and then 1.4000 psych would break the channel of higher lows
Loss of 1.39783 week low would end the higher-low sequence
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events that could reshape this structure
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 61 · price 1.40316
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, now compressing under 1.4038.
Since Monday's open at 1.3982 USD/CAD has ground higher through Asia, London and NY, printing a week high at 1.40386 late in the NY session and finding the EMA(20) near 1.4020 on each shallow pullback. The 1.4000 psych level flipped to support once the prior week's 1.4014 cap gave way, with the post-FOMC Fed-BoC spread and softer crude keeping CAD the G10 laggard. RSI(14) around 61 is firm but no longer expanding as the last four bars coil just under the week high.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4000, 1.3996
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.40386 week high opens the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4080 next barrier
Loss of the 1.4020 ema20 and then the 1.4000 psych level breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3996 pullback low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the week's only scheduled CAD data and can materially shift this read
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC — an in-line print leaves the grind intact, a miss pressures the breakout
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, holding above EMA20.
USDCAD opened the week at 1.3982 and has ground higher through the Asia and London sessions, clearing Friday's 1.4014 shelf and building a sequence of higher lows against a rising EMA20 near 1.4020; the 175bp Fed-BoC front-end gap and softer crude remain the backdrop, with Macklem's hawkish tilt failing to dent it. The one dip of the day, into 1.3996 during the NY session, retested the 1.4000 psych pivot and was absorbed before the pair pushed to the Monday high at 1.4039. RSI(14) at ~60 is firm without being stretched, and ATR(14) around 10 pips shows an orderly rather than impulsive advance.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4000, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4039 monday high opens the 1.4050 prior high and the 1.4080 first barrier
An hourly close back below the 1.4020 ema20 and then the 1.4000 psych pivot would break the higher lows sequence
Loss of 1.3982 weekly open would reverse this week's structure
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events that could reshape this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, holding above 1.4000.
Price has ground higher in a clean sequence of higher lows since Monday's session open at 1.3982, with the 1.4000 psych pivot broken early in European hours and retested into the NY session — the 1.39959 dip was reclaimed within two bars. The drift reflects the widened Fed-BoC front-end spread after last week's hawkish FOMC plus softer crude, with Macklem's hawkish tilt failing to put a floor under CAD. RSI(14) sits near 61 and pullbacks are being absorbed at or above the EMA20 around 1.4021, leaving the session high at 1.4039 as the immediate cap.
Support: 1.4021, 1.4000, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4039 session high opens the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4080 first barrier
An hourly close back below the 1.4000 psych pivot would break the run of higher lows and put the weekly open at 1.3982 back in play
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.4021 as pullback support is the first sign the Monday grind is stalling
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled risks that could reshape this structure
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 66 · price 1.40368
Successive higher highs and higher lows off the weekly low.
Price opened the week near 1.3982 and has ground higher through Monday's London and NY sessions, clearing last week's 1.4014 ceiling and closing the latest bar at the week high of 1.40386 — the continuation of the 175bp Fed-BoC spread story plus softer crude weighing on CAD. The only meaningful dip came at the London-NY transition, a flush to 1.39959 that was fully reclaimed within three bars, leaving 1.4000 as the psych pivot underneath. RSI(14) sits near 66 with pullbacks holding the rising ema20 around 1.4020, and the whole advance is contained in a shallow rising channel off the weekly low at 1.39783.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4000, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the week high at 1.40386 would open the 1.40500 round number and the 1.4050/1.4125 band
An hourly close back below the 1.4000 psych pivot would break the higher-low sequence and expose 1.39783
Loss of the ema20 near 1.40200 on a closing basis would be the first sign the channel is failing
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events capable of resetting this structure
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 68 · price 1.40309
Series of higher highs and higher lows above 1.4000.
Monday's session opened near 1.3982 and ground higher through London and into NY, closing the window at 1.40309 with a fresh session high at 1.4033 — the widest Fed/BoC gap post-FOMC plus softer crude keeping CAD the laggard. The 1.4000 psych level was broken late last week and retested mid-session Monday at the 1.3996 day low before demand stepped back in, and EMA(20) near 1.4015 has contained every pullback since the Asia hours. RSI(14) near 68 is pressing the upper end of its range without diverging, and Macklem's hawkish Halifax tone was not enough to interrupt the drift.
Support: 1.4015, 1.4000, 1.3996
Resistance: 1.4033, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4033 session high opens the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4080 next barrier
An hourly close back below 1.4000 psych, with EMA(20) at 1.4015 lost, would break the higher-lows sequence
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events that could reset this structure
Failure to hold the 1.3996 day low would confirm the first lower low of the week
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; break above last week's range top.
USDCAD has advanced in every session since Monday's open at 1.3982, clearing last week's 1.40140 prior high during the NY session and closing at a fresh 1.40316 week high. Price is holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 67 and pullbacks have stayed shallow — the deepest dip held 1.3996, just above the 1.4000 psych pivot. Softer crude and the wide Fed-BoC front-end spread are the drivers cited behind this week's grind.
Support: 1.4014, 1.4000, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.40316, 1.4050
What it said to watch
An hourly close back under 1.40140 prior high would break the sequence of higher lows off Monday's open
1.40500 round number is the next untested reference above the 1.40316 week high
Loss of the 1.4000 psych level and the 1.3982 weekly open would negate the breakout
Wed US flash PMIs and Thu Canada retail sales are the scheduled risks that could reshape this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, pressing week high.
USDCAD has ground higher through every session since Monday's open at 1.3982, clearing Friday's 1.4014 ceiling during European hours and printing the week high at 1.40242 into the NY session, with the slide in crude and the 175bp Fed-BoC gap cited as the drivers. The only meaningful setback was the pullback to 1.3996 around the London-NY transition, which retested the 1.4000 psych level and was reclaimed within two bars. Price sits above both EMA20 (~1.4009) and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 62 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 1.4009, 1.4000, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40242, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.40242 week high opens the 1.4050 zone and, beyond it, prior supply near 1.4080
Loss of the 1.4000 psych level and the Monday higher-low trendline would end the higher-low sequence on this window
Failure to hold EMA20 on the next pullback would be the first break of this week's pattern
Canadian Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the events capable of resetting this structure
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 1.40158
Higher lows since Monday's open, holding above 1.4000.
USDCAD gapped up from Friday's 1.3982 weekly open and has ground higher through the Asia and London sessions, printing a week high at 1.4023 before a NY-hours dip into 1.3996 was bought back above the 1.4000 round number. The 175bp Fed-BoC front-end gap and sliding crude remain the stated drivers behind the drift to the highest levels since early August. Price sits above EMA(20) near 1.4008 with RSI(14) at ~61, holding in the upper half of its cycle without pushing into overbought.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3996, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4050
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem's Halifax speech at 15:00 UTC is the immediate event risk for this read
Hourly close back below 1.4000 and the session low at 1.3996 would break the week's higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4023 week high opens the 1.4050 psych area — zone to monitor for rejection or break
US flash PMIs Wednesday 13:45 UTC could materially reset the USD side of this structure
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 62 · price 1.40149
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, holding above 1.4000.
Price has ground higher in a stair-step sequence since Monday's open at 1.3982, clearing the 1.4000 psych level in the Asia-London handover and posting the week high at 1.4023 in early London. The CAD-specific weakness behind the move — sliding crude and the ~175bp Fed-BoC front-end gap — kept dips shallow: the NY-hours slip to 1.3996 was bought back inside two bars and price has reclaimed EMA20 near 1.4005, with RSI(14) cycling in the 50-65 band rather than stretching.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3996, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4050
What it said to watch
BoC Governor Macklem speaks at 15:00 UTC — an inflation-focused tone is the main event risk to this week's read
An hourly close back under 1.3996 day low would break the higher-low sequence off Monday's weekly open
Acceptance above the 1.4023 week high is the condition for the 1.4050 next resist area to come into play
Sustained loss of EMA20 near 1.4005 would flatten the intraday uptrend into a range
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at range top · RSI 53 · price 1.39972
Higher highs since Thursday, first lower high after Monday's NY rejection.
USDCAD ground higher through the Asia and London sessions from Monday's 1.39783 open area to 1.40228, the top of the four-day range, before the NY session sold it back through the 1.4000 psych pivot to close at 1.39972 — the first clean lower high of the week. The grind up sat on the policy-divergence and softer-crude story flagged for CAD, but price has now slipped marginally under EMA(20) with RSI(14) back to the low 50s from 65. The 1.39820 weekly open and Monday low at 1.39783 mark the base of the week's structure.
Support: 1.3982, 1.39783, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40228
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 1.4000 psych pivot would restore the uptrend read toward Monday's high at 1.40228
Loss of 1.39820 weekly open and then 1.39783 monday low would confirm a lower-low and break the week's rising support line
BoC Macklem speech at 15:00 GMT is the near-term event risk and could reset this range read within the next bars
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling at the highs · RSI 58 · price 1.39994
Higher highs / higher lows since the FOMC impulse, pulling back into the 1.4000 pivot.
Monday's session extended last week's post-FOMC impulse, clearing Friday's 1.4014 prior high and printing a new week high at 1.40228 before the last two hours handed back roughly 23 pips into 1.3999. Price has slipped just under EMA(20) near 1.4005 with RSI(14) cooling out of the high-60s into the mid-50s, leaving the 1.4000 psych level as the immediate pivot of the breakout. The underlying driver remains policy divergence — hawkish Fed dots against a BoC on hold — with softer crude adding to the CAD drag.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3982, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.4005, 1.4014, 1.40228
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above 1.4014 prior high would restore the breakout read toward 1.40228 week high
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 psych level turns Monday's push into a false break
Loss of 1.3982 weekly open would break the Monday higher-low sequence; 1.39734 swing low is the base of the post-FOMC consolidation
BoC Macklem speaks 15:00 GMT — a hawkish tone could materially reprice this 1.4000 pivot within the next few bars
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, new week high.
Monday's Asia open at 1.39819 marked the low and price has climbed in a shallow channel through the London session, clearing last week's 1.4014 highs to print a new week high at 1.40228 — the Fed hike versus a BoC on hold for a seventh meeting, plus softer crude, is the driver named in the macro read. The 1.4000 psych level flipped from cap to floor on the way up and pullbacks are being absorbed above EMA(20) near 1.4003. RSI(14) at 71 is stretched for the first time this week, so the advance is running without a corrective bar.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39819, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.40228, 1.4050
What it said to watch
BoC Governor Macklem speaks 15:00 GMT — the main near-term event risk for this read
An hourly close back below the 1.4000 psych level would break the channel of higher lows
Failure to hold 1.39819 weekly open would confirm the week's up-leg has topped, with 1.39734 swing low the next reference
Acceptance above 1.40228 week high opens the 1.40500 round number as the next area to monitor
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's impulse; new week high printed.
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's 18:00 UTC Fed hike, which lifted the pair ~70 pips in a single bar from 1.3920 to 1.3993; the following two days consolidated in a tight 1.3979–1.4014 band above the 1.4000 psychological pivot. Monday's Asia session opened near the 1.3982 weekly open and has ground higher without a pullback of note, with the London open extending to a week high at 1.40228 as crude slid and the ~175bp Fed–BoC front-end spread stayed the driver. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), both now clustered around 1.3995–1.4005, while RSI(14) at 73 is the most stretched reading of the window.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3982, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40228, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
BoC Governor Macklem speaks 15:00 GMT today — the key CAD event risk inside this bar period and capable of reversing the Monday grind
An hourly close back below the 1.4000 psych pivot would break the sequence of higher lows off 1.39783
Acceptance above the 1.40228 week high puts the 1.4050 round number and 1.4080 next res in play
RSI(14) near 73 with no H1 pullback since the weekly open — a lower high against a fresh price high would flag bearish divergence
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 67 · price 1.40132
Higher highs and higher lows since the week reopen; prior-week high cleared.
USDCAD reopened this week at the 1.3982 weekly open and ground higher through the Asia session into London, clearing last week's 1.4014 ceiling and printing a week high at 1.40228 before easing back to 1.4013. The advance is a continuation of the Fed–BoC divergence trade that dominated last week, with softer crude adding to the CAD-side drag; price holds above EMA20 near 1.4004 with the sequence of higher lows unbroken since the reopen. RSI(14) near 67 is the highest reading in the window without a momentum divergence yet, and the 1.4000 psych level has flipped from cap to floor over the last four sessions.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.40228, 1.4080
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 1.4000 psych level would put the Monday breakout read in question
Loss of the 1.3982 weekly open would break the higher-lows sequence off the week's base
Acceptance above the 1.40228 week high opens the path toward the 1.4080 next resist
BoC Macklem speaking at 15:00 GMT is the main CAD event risk in the coming hours and could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into week high · RSI 68 · price 1.40141
Series of higher lows since Friday's low, fresh week high printed in Asia/early London.
USDCAD opened the week bid near 1.3982 and has climbed in a tight stair-step through the Asia session, taking out Friday's 1.4014 high and printing a new week high at 1.40228 — the Fed/BoC divergence trade plus the slide in crude remains the driver behind it. Price is holding above EMA(20) around 1.4000, which now doubles as the psych pivot, and RSI(14) near 68 is firm without an evident divergence. Above here the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4080 shelf are the next reference points; below, the weekly open at 1.3982 and the week low at 1.39783 frame the base of the move.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3982, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40228, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40228 week high extends the breakout toward the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4080 shelf
Loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot and EMA(20) re-exposes the 1.3982 weekly open
Failure to hold 1.39783 week low breaks the higher-low sequence and invalidates the uptrend read
BoC Macklem speech 15:00 UTC is the near-term event risk to this structure; US PMIs Wednesday the bigger one
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into week high · RSI 69 · price 1.40178
Higher lows since Friday's base, prior 1.4014 shelf taken out.
Monday's Asia-into-London hours have been a one-way grind: price opened at the 1.39820 week open, reclaimed the 1.40000 round number and pushed through the 1.4014 shelf that capped Friday's NY session to post a 1.40216 week high. Price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 69, the upper end of its multi-day cycle, and the move fits the Fed/BoC divergence plus softer crude backdrop described in the digest. Pullbacks since the 1.39783 week low have been shallow and bought inside the same session, with no bar closing back under 1.4000.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3982, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40216, 1.4050
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem at 15:00 UTC is the one unpriced CAD-positive risk in the next bars — tone is the event
Hourly close back below the 1.40000 round number would mark the 1.40216 week high as a false break
Sustained trade above 1.40216 opens the 1.40500 psych shelf as the next reference
RSI(14) near 69 while price stalls under the week high would leave momentum divergence forming
Higher highs and higher lows; consolidation above 1.4000.
USDCAD has ground higher through the Asia session, reclaiming the 1.4000 handle and printing a fresh high for the week at 1.40112 after the weekend open held Friday's 1.39819 close. The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's hawkish Fed impulse — a single H1 bar from 1.3935 to 1.3993 as the Fed-BoC gap widened toward ~175bp — after which Thursday and Friday consolidated between 1.3978 and 1.4014 above a rising EMA(20). RSI(14) sits near 62 with no divergence, and Friday's high at 1.40140 is the immediate cap, while the weekly open at 1.39820 and Monday's 1.39783 week low frame the base of the range.
Support: 1.39995, 1.3982, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 fri high would extend the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4050 psych area
Failure to hold the 1.39820 weekly open, or acceptance back under the ema20 near 1.3999, breaks the higher-low sequence
BoC Macklem speech at 15:00 UTC is the main event risk for this read during the London-NY session
A move back below 1.39783 week low would negate the Monday recovery entirely
The dominant move of the week was Wednesday's post-FOMC impulse off 1.39197, which repriced the pair straight into the 1.3990s and left everything since as consolidation under the 1.4014 prior high, with the 1.40085 supply shelf capping four separate NY-session attempts. Friday's fade back to the 1.39820 weekly open held, and Monday's Asia session has ground price back above the 1.4000 psych level on thin liquidity, keeping EMA20 and EMA50 below spot. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-50s from the pullback lows without confirming a new high — momentum is flattening rather than extending, consistent with the Fed-hawkish/BoC-on-hold spread story already being largely in the price.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3982, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40085, 1.4014
What it said to watch
BoC Governor Macklem speaks 15:00 UTC — the main event risk for this read
An hourly close back under 1.39820 weekly open would break the higher-lows sequence
Acceptance above the 1.40140 prior high would extend the week's impulse; repeated rejection there keeps the consolidation intact
Loss of the 1.39783 monday low confirms a lower low on this timeframe
01:06 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating at the highs · RSI 51 · price 1.39954
Post-FOMC breakout now ranging 1.3973-1.4014.
The dominant move of the week was a single hour: the hawkish Fed hike lifted USDCAD from the 1.3930s to 1.3993 in one bar, and price has done nothing but consolidate above it since. Thursday and Friday's NY sessions probed the 1.4014 week high twice and were rejected, with late-Friday selling leaving the pair at 1.3982 before the Monday Asia session reclaimed the 1.4000 psych area; the pair now sits marginally above a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3994 with RSI(14) back at 51 after cycling down to the mid-30s on Friday's fade.
Support: 1.3994, 1.3978, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4014 week high would extend the post-FOMC breakout; repeated failure keeps the range intact
Loss of the 1.3978 monday low re-opens the 1.3973 post-gap low as the range floor
BoC Macklem speaks 15:00 UTC today — the main CAD event risk for this read in the next few bars
Wednesday's US S&P Global PMIs are the next scheduled USD catalyst capable of resolving the range
Three-session consolidation capped by 1.4014, floor 1.3973.
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's NY session, where the hawkish Fed hike to 4% lifted USDCAD in one impulsive bar from 1.3920 to 1.3993, and price has done nothing but digest that leg since. Three sessions of consolidation between the 1.3973 week low and the 1.4014 week high have left the 1.4000 psych level as the pivot, with two rejections there during Friday's NY hours and price now oscillating either side of a flat EMA(20). The new week opened at 1.3982 in Asia and has ticked back up to 1.3994; RSI(14) near 45 reflects the loss of post-FOMC momentum rather than any directional turn.
Support: 1.3981, 1.39734
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem speech 15:00 UTC is the main CAD catalyst into the London-NY transition and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.40140 week high would resolve the consolidation upward
Loss of the 1.39810 range floor, and then the 1.39734 week low, would end the post-FOMC balance and confirm a lower low