Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, holding above EMA20.
USDCAD has trended up all week and the dominant leg came through the London–NY window yesterday, lifting price from the 1.40245 prior range into a fresh week high at 1.40835 as sliding crude and the wide US–Canada front-end spread kept CAD the weakest leg. Price is holding above EMA20 near 1.4051 with pullbacks shallow — the session low at 1.40571 was bought back within two bars — while RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s and has stopped making new highs alongside price. The last six hours are a tight consolidation under 1.40835, the barrier repeatedly cited as immediate resistance.
Support: 1.40571, 1.4051, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40835 week high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
Loss of EMA20 near 1.4051 and a close below the 1.40571 session low would break the week's higher-low sequence
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr shortly after could materially shift this read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) is the main CAD-side event risk into the back half of the week
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 65 · price 1.40653
Series of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open.
USDCAD has trended one-way since Monday's open, with the dominant leg coming through the London and NY sessions on Tuesday as hawkish Fed repricing widened US-Canada front-end spreads and a fifth day of oil weakness on Hormuz reopening headlines stripped CAD of commodity support. Price printed a week high at 1.40835 in the NY session before slipping into a tight 1.4057–1.4068 consolidation, with every pullback so far holding above the rising ema20 near 1.4048. RSI(14) around 65 is firm without being stretched, and the prior-day low at 1.40245 remains the last higher low of the sequence.
Support: 1.40571, 1.4048, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40835 week high would extend the uptrend toward the 1.4100 round number
Loss of 1.40571 session low and a close back under the ema20 would break the higher-low sequence
US S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's main USD event risk and could reset this consolidation
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) is the key CAD-side risk to the current structure
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, price riding above EMA20.
Price has ground higher all week from the 1.39783 Monday low, with the dominant leg coming through the London and NY sessions Tuesday as the wide US-Canada front-end spread and a fifth session of crude weakness kept CAD the weak link. The NY session printed a fresh week high at 1.40835 before easing back toward 1.4065, with every pullback so far holding the EMA20 near 1.4053 and RSI(14) cycling in the upper half near 69. The 1.4080 area is now the pivot the whole week's advance is testing.
Support: 1.4053, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the EMA20 at 1.4053 would break the week's higher-low sequence
Repeated failure at the 1.40835 week high without a close above it leaves the advance stalling
Loss of 1.40245 day low would confirm the first lower-low since Monday's open
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the event risks that could reshape this structure
1.4100 psych level is the next round number above the week high — area to monitor for rejection or break
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, price at week highs.
USDCAD has ground higher all week, basing above the 1.4000 psych level on Monday and accelerating through the London-NY overlap on Tuesday to a week high of 1.40835. Every pullback has been shallow and held the rising EMA(20), with the 1.40245 tue low marking the base of the latest leg; the hawkish Fed repricing and a fifth straight day of crude losses have kept CAD the weaker leg. RSI(14) near 66 shows the move is extended but not yet diverging, and the last three bars have stalled just under the week high.
Support: 1.4052, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the ema20 near 1.4052 would be the first break in the shallow-pullback pattern this week
Loss of the 1.40245 tue low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.4000 psych level back in play
A sustained break of the 1.40835 week high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Fed's Barr shortly after could materially shift this read; Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the CAD-side risk
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 72 · price 1.40669
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, shallow pullbacks.
USDCAD has ground higher all week from Monday's 1.3982 open, with the dominant leg arriving in the NY session Tuesday as crude's slide on Hormuz reopening talk and the wide US–Canada front-end spread lifted price to a week high at 1.40835. Every pullback has been absorbed above the rising EMA20, now near 1.4050, and the Tuesday low at 1.40245 has not been retested since the London–NY transition. RSI(14) near 72 is overbought on this timeframe, with the 1.4100 round number the next reference above.
Support: 1.4050, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below 1.4050 (ema20) would be the first break of this week's pullback behaviour
Failure to hold the tue low at 1.40245 would end the higher-low sequence and reopen the 1.4000 psych mark
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the near-term events that could reshape this read
Repeated rejection under the 1.40835 week high would flag stalling momentum despite the trend
Successive higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; NY-session breakout above the 1.4050 breakout level.
Price has ground higher every session since Monday's 1.3978 low, with the dominant leg coming in yesterday's and today's NY hours as the 1.4050 breakout level gave way and the pair printed a fresh week high at 1.4084. The digest ties the move to oil's slide on Hormuz de-escalation headlines plus a wide US-Canada front-end spread after last week's hawkish Fed hike, leaving CAD the weakest leg. RSI(14) is now near 78 and price is stretched well above EMA20 around 1.4042, which has caught every pullback this week.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4042, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4080 barrier would open the path toward the 1.4100 round number
First hourly close back under the 1.4050 breakout level, and then EMA20 at 1.4042, would break the week's higher-low sequence
A loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot would invalidate the uptrend read entirely
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the events that could reset this structure
RSI(14) near 78 leaves the advance overbought; divergence on a further high would flag momentum loss
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 72 · price 1.40708
USD/CAD has ground higher through each session since Monday's open near 1.3978, extending into the NY session to a week high at 1.4078 with every pullback so far holding at or above the rising ema20 around 1.4040. The drift up has tracked crude's slide on Strait of Hormuz de-escalation headlines while hawkish Fed pricing keeps the US-Canada front-end spread wide; Macklem's Halifax remarks earlier in the week did not move the needle for CAD. RSI(14) near 72 is the highest reading of the window, so the leg is stretched even as structure keeps printing higher highs and higher lows.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.4100
What it said to watch
A clean hourly close above the 1.4080 week high extends the two-week uptrend and exposes the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4040, then Tuesday's day low at 1.4025, would break the higher-low sequence that has held all week
1.4000 psych is the first deeper pivot if the week's advance unwinds
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the events that could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into fresh week high · RSI 71 · price 1.40709
Higher highs, higher lows since Monday's open; break above the 1.4050 shelf holding.
Price has ground higher in a staircase from Monday's 1.39783 low, with each pullback holding above the rising EMA(20) — now around 1.4046 — and the NY session today delivering the cleanest leg, breaking the 1.4025 range top and clearing the prior 1.4050 area to print a fresh week high at 1.4075. The drivers behind it are the hawkish Fed repricing keeping USD firm plus the four-day oil slide on Hormuz de-escalation headlines weighing on CAD. RSI(14) is near 71, so the move is stretched after roughly two sessions of one-way drift; 1.4125 is the next upside extension, with 1.4000 the psych marker further back.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4075, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC, then Wednesday's US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) — either could materially shift this leg
Hourly closes back under 1.4046 (ema20) would be the first break of the higher-low sequence built since Monday
Failure to hold the 1.4025 range top invalidates the breakout read and puts 1.4000 psych back in play
Canada Retail Sales Thursday 12:30 UTC is the week's only domestic catalyst
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; breakout from the 1.4025-1.4050 consolidation.
Price has ground higher all week from the 1.3978 Monday low, spending most of Monday and early Tuesday in a 1.40245-1.4050 consolidation before the NY session pushed through to a fresh week high at 1.40662. The move fits the widened Fed/BoC front-end spread and softer crude keeping CAD on the back foot, with pullbacks this week holding the rising EMA(20) near 1.4041 rather than retracing into the 1.4000 round number. RSI(14) near 65 is firm without being stretched, and the last two bars closed at the session high.
Support: 1.4041, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40662, 1.4080
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 1.4041 (ema20) would question the breakout from the week's consolidation
Loss of the 1.40245 range low would mark the break as a false break and re-open 1.4000
Acceptance above the 1.40662 week high puts the 1.4080 psych area in play
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the near-term catalysts for this structure
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into week high · RSI 68 · price 1.40548
Series of higher lows since Monday's open, breaking multi-day consolidation top.
USDCAD has ground higher every session since Monday's open at 1.3982, holding above EMA(20) on each pullback and building a shelf of higher lows around 1.4025 before the NY session pushed through the 1.4050 Aug 6 high to a fresh week high at 1.4056. The 175bp Fed/BoC spread restored by last week's hawkish Fed hike remains the underlying driver, with softer crude on Hormuz-reopening headlines removing CAD's usual commodity offset; Macklem's hawkish-leaning Halifax remarks only capped, rather than reversed, the move. RSI(14) at 68 is at the upper end of its weekly cycle but has yet to diverge, and the 1.4080 barrier is the next reference above.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.4050 on an hourly close basis keeps the breakout read intact; a slip back beneath it turns the move into a false break
Loss of the 1.4025 higher lows shelf would break the sequence that has held since Monday's open, opening the 1.4000 psych pivot
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) is the main domestic catalyst and could materially shift this structure
Fed speakers today (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) and Wednesday's US flash PMIs are USD-side risks to the current grind
A crude rebound on Hormuz headlines would test whether 1.4050 holds as support
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into week high · RSI 61 · price 1.40489
Higher highs, higher lows since Monday's open.
USD/CAD has ground higher all week from Monday's session open at 1.3982, with every pullback holding above the rising H1 EMA(20), now around 1.4035. The ~175bp Fed-BoC gap plus softer crude on Hormuz reopening headlines kept the bid intact through Monday's NY session, and after a tight Tuesday range off the 1.40245 tue low price is now pressing the 1.40494 week high and the 1.4050 aug 6 high. RSI(14) near 61 with higher lows intact — momentum firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.4035, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.4050 aug 6 high opens the path to 1.4080, the next barrier quoted in forecasts
Loss of the 1.40245 tue low and the rising higher-lows trendline would break this week's continuation structure
A slide back through 1.4000 psych invalidates the uptrend read on this timeframe
US S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled risks; Fed speakers later today
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into week high · RSI 56 · price 1.40411
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, now consolidating under the week high.
Price has climbed in a shallow channel from Monday's open near 1.3982, with every pullback holding the H1 EMA(20) and the last two sessions carving higher lows into 1.40245. The dominant push came during yesterday's NY session and again in today's London hours, where the week high at 1.40494 capped the move — consistent with the wider Fed-BoC spread story after last week's hawkish Fed hike, while Tehran's Hormuz reopening offer and softer crude keep CAD on the back foot. RSI(14) at 56 has cycled 45–65 through the week without confirming the new highs, so momentum is flattening even as structure stays constructive.
Support: 1.4033, 1.40245, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.40494 (week high) opens the path toward the 1.4080 next barrier
An hourly close back under 1.40245 (session low) breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the ema20 read at risk
Loss of the weekly open at 1.3982 would invalidate the week's uptrend read
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events that could reset this structure
Higher lows since Monday's open, consolidating under the week high.
Price has ground higher all week from the 1.3982 weekly open, clearing last week's 1.4014 range top and posting a fresh high at 1.40494 in Tuesday's European hours before fading back onto the EMA(20) near 1.4031. The drift reflects the 175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap after the hawkish Fed, while Macklem's hold-or-hike remarks and a crude bounce have capped extension above the mid-1.4000s. RSI(14) has cycled between the mid-40s and low 60s through this consolidation rather than pushing to extremes, and the 1.40245 session low is the latest in an unbroken series of higher lows.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4000, 1.3996
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.40494, 1.4080
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40494 week high would extend the breakout toward the 1.4080 barrier
Loss of the 1.40245 session low breaks this week's higher-low sequence and re-exposes the 1.4000 psych pivot
Fed speakers Williams, Jefferson and Barkin later today can shift the USD leg of the pair
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the only scheduled CAD data and could materially change this read
Higher lows since the week open, capped under 1.4050.
USDCAD has ground higher all week from the 1.39783 week-open low, printing a fresh high since early August at 1.40494 in this morning's London session before fading straight back to 1.4028 — a rejection that leaves price pinned just under the EMA20 near 1.4030. The advance is consistent with the 175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap after last week's hawkish Fed, while Macklem's hold-or-hike tone and a crude bounce have kept pullbacks shallow: each dip has been absorbed at a higher low, 1.39959 on Monday and 1.40245 in today's Asia session. Momentum is the caveat — RSI(14) has slipped back to the low 50s while highs extended, so the week high is capping rather than breaking.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4000, 1.39959
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40494, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 1.4030 ema20 keep the higher-low sequence intact; sustained trade below 1.40245 session low breaks it
A close above the 1.40494 week high opens the path to the 1.4080 barrier
Loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot would negate the week's uptrend read and expose 1.3945
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events able to reshape this structure
Rising series of higher lows, fresh week high printed.
USDCAD has climbed in a tight channel of higher lows since Monday's open near 1.3982, with the London session this morning pushing through the prior ceiling to a fresh week high at 1.4049 before fading back to 1.4038. The widened Fed/BoC front-end spread after last week's Fed hike remains the driver, though Macklem's hawkish 'hold or raise' remarks and a crude bounce have kept each pullback shallow rather than producing a reversal. Price sits above EMA(20) around 1.4032, which has absorbed every dip this week, while RSI(14) at ~54 has cooled from the highs without breaking down — momentum flattening into the new high.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4025 session low and EMA20 would break the week's higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot would invalidate the channel read and open 1.3978 week low
Hourly close above 1.4049 week high exposes the 1.4080 barrier
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wednesday 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thursday 12:30 UTC could materially reset this structure
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 57 · price 1.40407
Series of higher highs and higher lows, consolidating just under the week high.
Price has ground higher through every session since the week's open, with the post-FOMC 175bp Fed–BoC spread keeping USD/CAD bid and each pullback finding the EMA(20) rather than breaking it. The move stalled at the 1.4043 week high in yesterday's NY session and spent the Asia session compressing into a tight 1.40245–1.4043 flag, a pause that lines up with the crude bounce and Macklem's hawkish Halifax remarks offering CAD some support. The Asia–London handover has pushed price back to the flag top at 1.40407 with RSI(14) mid-50s, so the 1.4043 level is again the immediate area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.4030, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4043 week high opens the path to the 1.4050 round number and 1.4080 prior high
Loss of 1.40245 session low breaks the run of higher lows and puts the EMA(20) sequence in question
Fed speakers Williams, Jefferson and Barkin later today are the main scheduled risk to the USD leg
Canada Retail Sales Thursday 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) could materially shift this read
Higher highs/higher lows since Monday's open, now consolidating under the week high.
USDCAD has ground higher in a clean sequence of higher lows since Monday's 1.3978 open, with the Asia session this morning printing the week high at 1.40430 — the top of the post-FOMC move driven by the 175bp Fed/BoC spread. The last six bars have stalled into a tight 1.40245–1.40430 consolidation and price is now marginally under the H1 EMA(20) at ~1.4028, with RSI(14) back near 48 after failing to confirm the latest high. Macklem's hawkish-leaning Halifax remarks and a bounce in crude are the stated brakes on the advance rather than any structural break lower.
Support: 1.40245, 1.39959, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40283, 1.4043, 1.4080
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4028 ema20 and a reclaim of the 1.40430 week high would resume the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4080 barrier
Loss of the 1.40245 session low opens the 1.39959 prior dip and the 1.4000 psych level, which would break the Monday higher-low line
Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) today and Wednesday's US flash PMIs are the near-term catalysts for this range
Canada retail sales Thursday is the only scheduled CAD event and could materially shift the read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, now consolidating under the week high.
Price has climbed in a shallow channel from the 1.39783 week low set at Monday's open to a 1.4043 week high in Tuesday's early European session, the extension of the post-FOMC Fed/BoC spread story that has kept USDCAD bid above the 1.4000 psych level. The last six hours have gone flat between 1.4025 and 1.4043 with the H1 close sitting right on the EMA20 near 1.4025 and RSI(14) drifting back to the low-50s from the mid-60s at the high — momentum cooling, structure intact. Macklem's hold-or-hike framing and a crude bounce have slowed rather than reversed the grind higher.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4043 week high extends the channel toward the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4080 prior barrier
Loss of the 1.4025 ema20 and then the 1.4000 psych level would break the week's higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) is the main scheduled risk that could reshape this read; US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT sit ahead of it
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, now coiling under the week high.
USDCAD has ground higher every session since Monday's open near 1.3982, printing a fresh week high at 1.40430 in Asian hours before stalling — the post-FOMC USD bid and the ~175bp Fed/BoC gap remain the driver, with Macklem's hawkish-leaning Halifax remarks and a crude bounce only slowing the drift. Price now sits right on the H1 EMA(20) around 1.40260 after four flat-to-lower bars, with RSI(14) cooling back to the low 50s from the mid-60s at the 1.40430 print. The 1.4000 round number, reclaimed on Monday's NY session, is the pivot this week's higher-low sequence is built on.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4000, 1.3996
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4043, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40430 week high would extend the sequence toward the 1.4080 barrier
An H1 close back below the 1.4000 round number breaks this week's higher-low structure
Failure to hold Monday's low at 1.39960 confirms a lower low
Repeated closes below the EMA(20) at 1.40260 would mark the first loss of that support this week
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT (Services f/c 56, Mfg 53.5) and Fed speakers today could materially reset this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday, coiling under the week high.
USDCAD has ground higher through every session since Monday's open, stretching from the 1.3978 Monday low to a fresh week high at 1.4043, with the post-FOMC Fed/BoC front-end spread the stated driver behind the bid. Price has held above a rising EMA(20) near 1.4025 on each pullback and RSI(14) has cycled in the 50–65 band without tagging overbought. The last handful of bars have coiled in a sub-20-pip range under 1.4043 during the Asia session, leaving the 1.4080 barrier as the next reference above and the 1.4000 psych level as the first shelf below.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000, 1.3978
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly close back under the 1.4000 psych level would break the run of higher lows built off the 1.3978 monday low
Acceptance above the 1.4043 week high puts the 1.4080 barrier in play
Loss of the EMA(20) near 1.4025 on a closing basis would be the first sign this week's grind is stalling
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the calendar risks to this structural read
Series of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; Asian-session compression under the week high.
Price has ground higher in a shallow channel since Monday's weekly open at 1.3982, with the NY session on Monday doing the heavy lifting to 1.4039 and Asia extending to a week high of 1.4043 — the post-FOMC hawkish USD and the ~175bp Fed/BoC gap remain the backdrop. Pullbacks have been bought into the rising EMA(20), now just under the Asian range low at 1.4025, and RSI(14) has cycled in the 55–68 band without confirming the latest high. The 1.4000 psych level, broken on Monday, has not been retested since.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Sustained acceptance above the 1.4043 week high would extend the channel toward 1.4050 and the 1.4080 barrier
Loss of the 1.4025 asia low would be the first lower-low of the week and puts 1.4000 psych back in focus
A slip back under 1.4000 would question the breakout and expose the 1.3982 weekly open
S&P Global US PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT (Services f/c 56.0, Manufacturing f/c 53.5) and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT could materially reshape this structure
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 73 · price 1.40421
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, no lower low all week.
Price has ground higher in an unbroken higher-low sequence since Monday's session open at 1.3982, clearing the 1.40000 psych pivot that capped all of last week's range and printing a fresh week high at 1.40430 in Asia hours — the widest Fed/BoC spread at 175bp remains the backdrop. Pullbacks have been shallow and consistently absorbed at or just above the rising EMA(20), with the 1.40254 asia low the last defended shelf; RSI(14) at 73 is overbought and the advance is now stretched relative to a 9.6-pip ATR. Macklem's hawkish Halifax remarks have slowed the grind rather than reversed it, leaving the 1.4050/1.4080 supply zone as the next untested area above.
Support: 1.40254, 1.4000, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Hourly close back under 1.40000 psych pivot would negate the breakout read
Loss of the 1.40254 asia low breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Acceptance above 1.40500 round number opens the 1.40800 supply zone
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled risks to this structure
Series of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open.
Price has climbed in a shallow channel from Monday's low at 1.39783 through the 1.4000 psych level, with every pullback so far holding the H1 EMA(20) now near 1.4025. The 175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap after last week's hawkish Fed plus softer crude kept the pair bid into the NY session yesterday, printing the week high at 1.40386 — the upper edge of the move. RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s and hourly ranges have compressed to roughly 9 pips, so the advance is drifting rather than impulsive into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000, 1.39783
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40386 week high opens the path to the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the EMA(20) near 1.4025 and acceptance back under the 1.4000 psych level would break the higher-lows sequence
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events able to reset this structure
Crude headlines remain the CAD-side variable; a sharp oil rebound would test the channel from below
Series of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open.
USDCAD opened the week near the weekly open at 1.3982 and ground higher through Monday's London and NY sessions, with the dominant leg into NY hours printing the week high at 1.40386 — consistent with the 175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap and softer crude keeping CAD the underperformer. Price is holding above EMA(20) around 1.40200, with each pullback this week finding it and RSI(14) cycling in the 55-70 band rather than unwinding. The Asia session so far is a tight consolidation between 1.40254 and 1.40336 just under the week high.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4000, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4000 psych pivot would break the week's higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.40386 week high opens the 1.40500 round number area — zone to monitor for rejection or break
Loss of EMA(20) around 1.40200 on a closing basis would be the first sign the Monday impulse is stalling
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the scheduled events that could reshape this read
Failure to hold 1.3982 weekly open would fully reverse the week's advance