USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 23 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening at week high · RSI 61 · price 1.4100
Higher lows daily since Monday, tight consolidation under 1.4110.
USDCAD has climbed from Sunday's weekly open near 1.3982 to a week high at 1.4110, with each day setting a higher low: 1.3996 Monday, 1.4025 Tuesday, 1.4078 Wednesday. The NY session drove most of the Monday–Wednesday impulse, and Wednesday's US PMI beat carried price through 1.4100. With rate spreads outweighing oil above $90 for CAD, the pair is now compressing between the ema20 near 1.4094 and the week high, with RSI(14) cooled to around 61 from the mid-week push.
Support: 1.4094, 1.4085, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims both land Thu 12:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline near 1.4085 and the wed low at 1.4078 would break the week's rising sequence
H1 close above the 1.4110 week high opens the 1.4150 psych level
Loss of the 50% retrace of the Monday–Wednesday impulse at 1.4053 would signal a deeper correction
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; stalling at week high.
USD/CAD has built higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.3978 open, with each leg extended during NY hours on rate spreads rather than oil. Wednesday's flash PMI beat carried price through the 1.4100 psych level to a 1.4110 week high, before the 5y auction hour snapped it back to the 1.4091 swing low, which sits beside EMA(20) near 1.4088 and the rising trendline off Tuesday's lows. RSI(14) printed about 71 on the new high versus about 76 at Tuesday's peak, a bearish divergence as 1.4100 is contested.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907, 1.40571
Resistance: 1.41095
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4091 swing low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
A close through the 1.4110 week high while holding 1.4100 psych extends the uptrend
Loss of the 1.4057 wed low, near the 38.2% of the week's impulse, would mark a deeper correction
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu, plus Williams at 08:10 UTC, could materially shift this read
Stair-step higher highs and higher lows, pressing week high.
USDCAD has climbed about 125 pips from Monday's 1.3982 open. Each leg came during NY hours, and the higher-lows trendline from Monday's 1.3996 dip has caught every pullback since. Today's flash PMI beats powered a push through Tuesday's 1.4084 high to a 1.4106 week high, and price is now holding just above the 1.4100 round number with EMA(20) trailing near 1.4088. RSI(14) at 65 has cooled from Tuesday's stretch, and the Wednesday low at 1.4057 lines up with the 38.2% level of the week rally fib.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4088, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4106, 1.4125
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 1.4100 round number and the ema20 near 1.4088 would break the higher-lows trendline and stall the breakout read
Failure to hold the 1.4057 wed low (38.2% of the week rally) would mark the first lower low of the week
Acceptance above the 1.4106 week high opens the 1.4125 psych level
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC), with Williams at 08:10 UTC, could materially shift this read
Stair-step higher lows since Sunday open, stalling at 1.4100.
USDCAD has climbed about 127 pips from the 1.3978 week open low. Each day printed a higher low: Tuesday's Asia dip held 1.4025 and Wednesday's Asia low held 1.4057, while London and NY sessions drove the gains and pullbacks kept finding EMA(20). The blowout US flash PMIs lifted the pair through 1.4090 in the NY session today. The week high at 1.4106 left an upper wick just above the 1.4100 round number, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-60s.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4078, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4106
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4106 week high extends the higher-highs sequence and exposes Scotiabank's 1.4125 target
A break of the higher-lows trendline and today's 1.4078 swing low would mark the first lower low of the week, putting the 1.4057 Asia low (38.2% of the week impulse) in view
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims, both Thu 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC Thu, then Hammack/Paulson around 12:50–13:00 UTC, are risk points for October-hike pricing
Higher highs and higher lows since week open, pressing 1.4100.
USDCAD has climbed about 120 pips from the 1.3978 week open, printing a higher low each session. The largest leg came in Tuesday's NY session, and every pullback since has held above the rising trendline, including the Tue low at 1.4057 and today's swing low at 1.4078. The dollar's hawkish-Fed bid outweighs any oil support for CAD, and the 13:00 UTC bar, which spans the flash PMI release, pushed to a week high of 1.4098, just shy of the 1.4100 round number, with price holding above ema20 and RSI(14) in the high 60s.
Support: 1.4083, 1.40775, 1.40571
Resistance: 1.40981, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.4100 round number extends the uptrend; a stall at the week high leaves it as capped resistance
Close below the 1.4078 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the Tue low at 1.4057 and the 38.2% retracement near 1.4052
Loss of ema20 on a closing basis marks the first pullback of this leg to fail to hold it
Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC and the post-PMI reaction could materially shift this read
Canada Retail Sales and US jobless claims, both Thu 12:30 UTC, are the next event risk
Higher lows each day this week; tight consolidation under the week high.
USDCAD is up roughly 105 pips from the 1.3982 weekly open. A higher-lows trendline runs from Monday's 1.3996 dip through the 1.40245 tuesday low, and the NY session drove both the Monday and Tuesday legs as sub-$90 WTI and hawkish Fed-speak weighed on CAD. Wednesday's London session has compressed between the 1.40775 session low and the 1.40938 week high. That new high came on a lower RSI(14) than Tuesday's 1.4084 peak, with the 1.4100 round number just 14 pips overhead.
Support: 1.40775, 1.40571, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40938, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4100 round number extends the higher-lows sequence and clears the week high
Loss of the 1.40775 session low opens the 38.2% retrace of the tue-wed leg near 1.4067, with the asia low at 1.40571 below
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.40245 tuesday low would end this week's uptrend structure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and crude headlines remain CAD-side risk
Series of higher highs and higher lows; tight consolidation under week high.
USDCAD has trended up in a shallow channel since Monday's session open, lifting from the 1.3978 area to a week high at 1.40916 as sub-$90 crude and hawkish Fed repricing kept the Loonie the weakest G10 leg. Price sits above EMA20 (~1.4077), with every pullback this week holding the rising line of higher lows — 1.40571 was the deepest dip during the Asia session. The last ten bars have coiled in a 1.4077–1.4091 consolidation directly beneath the 1.4100 round number.
Support: 1.4077, 1.40571, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40916, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.41000 round number would extend the channel; repeated rejection at 1.40916 week high flags exhaustion
Loss of EMA20 and then 1.40571 higher low would break the rising structure
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and Fed's Barr shortly after can materially shift this read within the next bars
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the next domestic catalyst
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding but extended · RSI 70 · price 1.40833
Higher highs and higher lows, coiling under 1.4100.
USDCAD has climbed in a near-straight line since Monday's Asia open, with every pullback holding above the H1 EMA(20) and the 1.40571 session low marking the last meaningful higher low; the hawkish-Fed repricing plus WTI under $90 has been the driver. The dominant legs came in the London and early-NY hours of the last two sessions, lifting price to a week high at 1.40913 where the advance has now stalled into a tight 1.4078-1.4091 shelf. RSI(14) near 70 shows momentum intact but stretched, and the 1.4100 round number remains untested.
Support: 1.4078, 1.40571, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40913, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4100 round number extends the week's higher-high sequence; repeated rejection at 1.40913 week high flags stalling
Loss of the 1.4078 ema20 and then the 1.40571 session low would break the higher-low chain built since Monday
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr shortly after can materially shift this read within the next bars
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the only near-term domestic CAD data; 1.40245 prior low is the deeper reference below
USDCAD has climbed roughly 110 pips from Monday's 1.3978 open in an unbroken sequence of higher lows, with this week's impulse driven by hawkish Fed follow-through and WTI stuck under $90. The dominant legs came in the London and early-NY windows on Tuesday and again this morning, while the Asia session has consistently consolidated rather than given ground — each pullback has been contained at or just above EMA(20), now near 1.40730. RSI(14) sits near 67, firm but not stretched, and price is pressing the 1.40913 week high with the 1.41000 round number immediately above.
Support: 1.4073, 1.40571, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40913, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.41000 round number would extend the week's trend leg beyond the 1.40913 week high
Repeated rejection at 1.40913/1.41000 with RSI failing to confirm would flag stalling momentum
Loss of the 1.40571 day low would be the first break in the higher lows sequence; below that 1.40245 prior-day low is the next reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr shortly after could materially shift this read; Canada retail sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC is the next domestic input
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into the week high · RSI 60 · price 1.40796
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows, shallow pullbacks holding above EMA20.
USDCAD has climbed in a stair-step fashion all week, the dominant leg coming through the NY session yesterday when price cleared the 1.4045/1.4050 shelf and extended into Asia to post a week high at 1.40913 — a move the digest ties to hawkish-Fed dollar demand alongside a fourth straight day of crude weakness on Hormuz reopening talk. Pullbacks have been shallow and repeatedly absorbed at or just above EMA20, now around 1.4074, with the prior low at 1.4057 marking the last higher low. RSI(14) sits near 60, cycling 50–65 on each dip rather than reaching extremes, so momentum is firm but not stretched as the 1.4100 round number comes into view.
Support: 1.4074, 1.4057, 1.4025
Resistance: 1.40913, 1.4100
What it said to watch
1.4100 round number is the next overhead reference — area to monitor for rejection or a clean break
An hourly close back below the prior low at 1.4057 would break the week's higher-low sequence
Loss of EMA20 near 1.4074 as dip support would be the first sign the grind is stalling
US flash Services/Manufacturing PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can materially shift this read
Canada Retail Sales Thursday 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) is the nearest CAD-specific catalyst
Series of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, pullbacks shallow.
USDCAD has advanced roughly 105 pips from Monday's 1.3978 open with every pullback holding above the rising EMA(20), now near 1.4069, and RSI(14) cycling in the 55–70 band rather than unwinding. The dominant legs came in the London and NY sessions Tuesday, consistent with the digest's read of crude sliding on Hormuz-reopening headlines while hawkish Fed repricing kept the dollar bid. Asia hours have extended the move to a fresh week high at 1.40853, with the 1.4100 round number the next reference above.
Support: 1.4069, 1.40571, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40853, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40853 week high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
An hourly close back below the 1.40571 prior-day low would break the chain of higher lows and invalidate the channel read
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4069 on a closing basis would be the first sign this week's grind is stalling
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC today and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the nearest catalysts that could reshape the structure
1.4000 psych level is the deeper reference if the week's trend structure fails
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; shallow pullbacks holding EMA20.
USD/CAD has added roughly 100 pips from Monday's session open, grinding to a week high at 1.40835 as the Hormuz-reopening oil slide and hawkish Fed repricing kept CAD the softer leg. Pullbacks have stayed shallow: the 1.4057 swing low held through the Asia session and price is trading back above the H1 ema20 at 1.4061 with RSI(14) near 69. The 1.4030 prior range top was cleared during the NY session and has not been retested since.
Support: 1.4061, 1.4057, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
1.4100 psych level is the next reference above the week high if 1.40835 gives way
Loss of the 1.4057 swing low with an hourly close under the ema20 would break the higher-low sequence
A close back under 1.4030 prior range would negate the breakout read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT today, then Canada retail sales Thursday, could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 68 · price 1.40749
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating just under the week high.
USDCAD has climbed in a near-unbroken sequence from the 1.3978 area at the start of the window to a week high of 1.40835 set during yesterday's NY session, with the widest US-Canada front-end spread and a fifth straight down day in crude doing the work on the CAD side. Pullbacks have been shallow and have repeatedly found the EMA(20), which now sits near 1.4066, and the last eight bars have coiled in a tight 1.40571–1.40766 flag through the Asia session. RSI(14) near 68 is high but has not yet diverged, cycling back to the low-50s on each of this week's pullbacks.
Support: 1.4066, 1.40571, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.40835 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the 1.40571 pd low would break the week's higher-lows trendline and put the EMA20 read in question
US flash S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 GMT today are the session's main catalyst and could materially shift this read
Canadian retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the next CAD-side event risk
01:04 UTC
Uptrend, extension slowing into Asia · RSI 66 · price 1.4068
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; consolidating just under the week high.
Price has climbed roughly 90 pips from Monday's 1.3978 low in an unbroken sequence of higher lows, with the dominant leg coming through the London–NY transition yesterday as the hawkish-Fed dollar bid met a fifth straight down-day in crude, leaving CAD the weakest link. The week high at 1.4084 capped that push and the Asia session has since coiled in a 1.4057–1.4070 band, holding above the rising EMA(20) near 1.4060. RSI(14) at 66 has flattened while price held its highs — momentum is easing rather than reversing.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4084, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 1.4060 ema20 would break this week's higher-low sequence for the first time
A close above the 1.4084 week high opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
Loss of 1.4025 prior low would put the 1.4000 psychological mark back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC today and Canada retail sales Thursday are the events most likely to reshape this structure
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, extension slowing near week high · RSI 66 · price 1.40666
Successive higher highs and higher lows, consolidating under the week high.
USDCAD has ground higher through nearly every session since Monday's open around 1.3982, printing the week high at 1.4084 in the NY session yesterday — the highest since early August as the crude slide and a wide US-Canada front-end spread left CAD the weakest link. Price holds above the EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the 60s and each pullback so far shallow, the deepest holding the 1.4025 prior-day low. The Asia session has been near-flat, coiling in a 1.4057–1.4067 band just beneath the week high.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4050, 1.4025
Resistance: 1.4084, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4084 week high opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the 1.4050 ema20 would be the first break of this week's higher-lows sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4025 prior-day low would invalidate the uptrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC today and Canada retail sales Thursday are the near-term risks to this structure