Higher highs and higher lows since the early-September 1.3759 low.
USDCAD has carved higher highs and higher lows since the early-September 1.3759 low, clearing the 1.4000 round number after last week's Fed hike and extending on wide yield spreads and today's US PMI beat, with oil above $90 doing little for CAD. Price is pressing the 1.4110 window high just above 1.4100, riding a steepening rising trendline with the 1.4078 swing low and the 1.4025 breakout shelf beneath. ATR(14) near 20 pips points to a measured, trend-extending grind rather than blow-off expansion, with RSI firm but short of overbought.
Support: 1.4078, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4078 swing low breaks the rising trendline and opens a retest of the 1.4025 breakout
Loss of the 1.4000 round number would break the higher-low sequence and challenge the uptrend read
Sustained trade above the 1.4110 window high opens room toward the 1.4150 round number
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) alongside US jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Oil/Iran headlines remain a two-way risk for CAD in the next sessions
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low.
Higher-low structure has held since the 1.3759 low. Price cleared the prior 1.3939 swing high and the 1.4000 handle and is now printing a fresh window high at 1.4106, with USD bid on the September PMI beats and hawkish Fedspeak. RSI is in overbought territory and ATR(14) sits near 21 pips, well below the early-window expansion bars, so the advance is a low-volatility grind along the rising trendline rather than an impulsive extension.
Support: 1.4078, 1.4024, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.4106, 1.4125
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4106 window high opens the path to the 1.4125 next level
Failure to hold the 1.4078 swing low would mark the first lower low of the leg
A break of the rising trendline and the fib 23.6 near 1.4024 would shift the read to a deeper pullback toward the fib 38.2 at 1.3973
US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales both land Thu 12:30 UTC, with Williams, Hammack and Paulson speaking around them, and could materially shift this read
13:27 UTC
Uptrend, extended into round number · RSI 74 · price 1.40926
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3759 swing low.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the 1.3759 swing low, with a steady rising trendline under the move. Price broke out of the 1.3975-1.4015 range and is now pressing the 1.4100 round number, as sub-$90 WTI and a hawkish Fed widen the US-Canada rate gap. RSI near 74 is overbought while ATR stays steady around 21 pips, so the trend is extending rather than compressing; the 1.4057 shelf and 1.4025 higher low are the nearest structural supports.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4025, 1.3975
Resistance: 1.4100
What it said to watch
Repeated rejection at the 1.4100 round number would flag exhaustion in an overbought move; an H4 close above it extends the higher-high sequence
H4 close below the 1.4025 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the swing structure
A return inside the prior range toward the 1.3975 range floor lines up with the 38.2% fib of the swing low-high leg
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC today) and Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
12:06 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 71 · price 1.4088
Series of higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low.
Unbroken higher-high / higher-low sequence since the 1.3759 swing low, with each pullback contained above the rising EMA20 and the 1.4000 ema50 pivot — the mechanical expression of hawkish Fed repricing against sub-$90 crude that has lifted USDCAD in ten of the last eleven sessions. Price has broken the prior 1.4050 shelf and is now pressing the week high at 1.4092, directly beneath the 1.4100 round number. ATR(14) near 21 pips is expanding modestly rather than compressing, consistent with trend extension rather than a coiling range, though RSI in the low 70s shows the move is stretched.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4092, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above the 1.4100 round number would confirm continuation of the multi-week uptrend
Repeated rejection at 1.4092/1.4100 without a close through it would mark the first credible stall of the sequence
Loss of the 1.4025 swing low would break the higher-low chain and put the 1.4000 ema50 pivot back in play
US flash PMIs today at 13:45 GMT and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the near-term catalysts capable of reshaping this structure
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 74 · price 1.40888
Successive higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 base.
USDCAD has built an unbroken series of higher highs and higher lows off the 1.3759 base, clearing the 1.4000 round number and closing the window at its high of 1.4089 with price above both EMA20 and EMA50. The leg accelerated as post-FOMC hawkish guidance widened US-Canada front-end spreads while a multi-day oil slide left CAD unsupported. RSI(14) near 74 shows the move is stretched, and ATR(14) around 21 pips marks a modest expansion rather than a volatility blow-off, leaving the 1.4100 round number as the next untested area.
Support: 1.4035, 1.4000, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.4100 round number would extend the higher-high sequence; repeated rejection there would mark the first credible cap of the leg
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.4035 would be the first break of the rising higher-low sequence
A close back below the 1.4000 round number, and then the 1.3981 swing low, would invalidate the uptrend read
US flash Services/Manufacturing PMIs at 13:45 UTC today and Canada Retail Sales Thursday 12:30 UTC are the nearest catalysts capable of reshaping this structure
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 73 · price 1.40836
Series of higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low, closing at window high.
USDCAD has built an unbroken sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low three weeks ago, tracking a shallow rising channel with price above both EMA20 and EMA50 and the last bar closing on the window high at 1.40844. The advance is consistent with the wide US-Canada front-end spread after the hawkish Fed and the oil-led CAD drag, with hawkish BoC commentary failing to slow it. ATR(14) near 21 pips is a mid-range regime — expansion has been steady rather than climactic, while RSI in the low 70s shows the move is stretched as it presses the 1.4100 round number.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000, 1.3978
Resistance: 1.40844, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.40844 window high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
A close back below the 1.40250 prior pivot would be the first break of the higher-low sequence
Loss of 1.4000 psych and the 1.39780 swing low would invalidate the channel read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs are the nearest catalysts that could reprice this structure
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low; price at window highs.
USDCAD has built an unbroken sequence of higher highs and higher lows off the 1.3759 low, with the break above the 1.4000 psych level two sessions ago now acting as the pivot of a shallow rising channel; EMA20 sits near 1.4030 and remains above EMA50, both under price. The extension to the 1.4084 window high tracks the CAD-negative mix the digest describes — oil's multi-day slide and a wide US-Canada front-end spread after the Fed hike — with hawkish Macklem rhetoric so far unable to cap the move. ATR(14) around 20 pips is mildly expanded versus the mid-window drift, consistent with trend extension rather than compression, and 1.4100 is the next round number above.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000, 1.3978
Resistance: 1.4084, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4084 window high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the 1.4000 psych level would be the first break of the higher-low sequence; a close below the 1.3978 swing low invalidates the uptrend read
Sustained trade back under the ema20 near 1.4030 would flag momentum stalling
US flash PMIs later today and Canada Retail Sales (f/c -0.8%) Thursday are the two events capable of reshaping this structure