Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 early-September low.
USD/CAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 early-September low. EMA20 is above EMA50 and price is holding a rising trendline while pressing the late-July high zone near 1.4130, as hawkish Fed pricing and 5% Treasury yields lift USD. RSI(14) near 76 is overbought and ATR(14) around 20 pips shows a steady grind rather than an expanding move; the 1.4149 swing high caps the impulse for now, and the 38.2% fib of that impulse lines up with the 1.4000 handle.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4097, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the july high at 1.4130 would turn the push through late-July highs into a false break
Loss of the 1.4097 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence; fib 38.2 and round number confluence at 1.4000 sits below
Close above the 1.4149 swing high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Break of the rising trendline from the early-September lows would end the multi-week higher-low structure
Friday US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Fed's Williams/Hammack, then Canada GDP Tue Sep 29, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since early-September low.
USDCAD has printed an unbroken higher-high and higher-low sequence since the 1.3759 early-September low, with a rising trendline off that base now near 1.4046. The latest bar pushed through the 1.4130 july high to a 1.4149 window high, extending the move on hawkish Fed pricing, US yields above 5% and a run of US data beats. ATR(14) has settled near 20 pips, well below the early-window spike bars, pointing to a steady grind rather than an expanding impulse, and RSI in overbought territory reflects the stretch after only one meaningful down day in two weeks.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4097, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4130 july high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4097 higher low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the rising trendline near 1.4046
A deeper pullback toward the 38.2% fib near 1.4000 would test the round-number area where the fib and psych level overlap
Acceptance above the 1.4149 window high leaves the 1.4200 round number as the next reference
Fri US durables and UoM inflation expectations, plus Fed speakers Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Canada GDP Tue 29 Sep is the next domestic CAD risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 swing low.
USDCAD has built a clean higher-high, higher-low sequence off the 1.3759 swing low, gaining roughly 360 pips and now pressing the 1.4119 window high just under the 1.4130 july high. The move has been driven by US yields above 5% and October Fed hike bets after this week's PMI beats. ATR(14) near 20 pips points to a methodical grind rather than an expanding impulse, with RSI in overbought territory and EMA20 holding above EMA50. The rising trendline off the September lows sits near 1.4043, and the 38.2% fib of the advance lines up with the 1.3978-1.3982 higher-low shelf.
Support: 1.4087, 1.4043, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4119, 1.4130, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4087 swing low breaks the latest higher low
A decisive break of the rising trendline near 1.4043 shifts the read from trend to correction, with the 38.2% fib at 1.3982 next
Acceptance above the 1.4130 july high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Rejection at the 1.4119 window high/1.4130 cluster with RSI rolling out of overbought would point to consolidation
Fed's Paulson today and Friday's Williams and Durable Goods could shift US yields and this read
Canada GDP Tue 29 Sep is the next domestic CAD risk
Higher highs and higher lows since 8 Sep low; tight stall under 1.4113.
USDCAD has built higher highs and higher lows along a rising trendline from the 8 Sep swing low at 1.3759. The break above the 1.4000 range top gave way to a steady grind higher on hawkish Fed pricing and the US PMI beats. The last four bars have compressed between the 1.4087 swing low and the 1.4113 swing high, with ATR(14) near 20 pips and RSI hovering around 70, showing momentum flattening rather than reversing.
Support: 1.4087, 1.4057, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today could break the 1.4087–1.4113 stall in either direction
H4 close above the 1.4113 swing high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
H4 close below the 1.4087 swing low, then the 1.4057 prior low, would mark the first lower low of the leg
A return below the 1.4000 range top, near the 38.2% fib at 1.3978, would test the rising trendline and weaken the breakout read
USDCAD has built higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 base. The prior cap at 1.4000 gave way early this week, and the pair has now stretched to a 1.4113 swing high as blowout US PMIs revived October Fed hike bets and falling crude weighed on CAD. RSI is in overbought territory. ATR(14) has eased to about 20 pips from the larger early-window swings, so the advance is extending in small steps rather than impulsively, with the higher-lows trendline sitting just under price near the 1.4078 prior lows.
Support: 1.4078, 1.4057, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.4113 swing high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4125 street target and the 1.4200 round number
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4078 prior lows marks the first loss of momentum
Failure to hold the 1.4057 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Close back below the 1.4000 prior cap turns the breakout into a false break and puts the rally fib 38.2% near 1.3978 in focus
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low. Last week's Fed hike, and then the PMI beats, pushed price through the 1.4000 round number, and the subsequent dip held that level before the rising trendline carried price to a 1.4110 swing high. RSI near 73 is overbought and ATR(14) has compressed to about 20 pips, so the grind is extending on shrinking ranges. The latest bar is probing the rising trendline just above the 1.4078 swing low.
Support: 1.4078, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.4110 swing high opens the 1.4125/1.4150 round number zone
H4 close below the 1.4078 swing low and the rising trendline signals the higher-low sequence stalling
Failure to hold the 1.4025 prior low and then the 1.4000 round number would break the uptrend structure