21:05 UTC
Uptrend since Sep 8 low, stretched · RSI 74 · price 1.41017
Double bottom breakout, higher lows, testing July high.
USD/CAD built a double bottom at 1.3732/1.3759 (Aug 21 and Sep 8 aug low area), completed it with the Sep 16 close above the 1.3940 neckline, and has gained in ten of the last twelve sessions as hawkish Fed repricing and US yields above 5% lifted the dollar. Price has cleared the 61.8% fib of the June–August decline at 1.4051 and is pressing the July high at 1.4128 with RSI(14) near 74, a genuinely overbought daily reading. It is back above a flattening EMA(50), and the 1.4248 june high is the next major pivot overhead.
Support: 1.4051, 1.3940, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4128 july high opens the path toward the 1.4248 june high
- Rejection at 1.4128 with RSI rolling over from overbought would put the 61.8% fib at 1.4051 in focus
- A close back below the 1.3940 neckline negates the double bottom read
- Fri US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Fed's Williams/Hammack could materially shift this read
- Canada GDP Tue Sep 29 is the next domestic CAD risk