21:04 UTC
Uptrend resumed, momentum stretched · RSI 72 · price 1.41411
Base at 1.3732–1.3759 broke higher; late-July highs cleared.
USDCAD has risen in 11 of 12 sessions since the 1.3759 Sep 8 low. That low paired with the 1.3732 august low to form a base, and price has since cleared the 1.4128 july high on Fed–BoC divergence and US 10y yields above 5%. The Sep upswing now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the June–August decline, with the 1.4248 june high the next multi-month pivot overhead. Friday's narrow bar at the 1.4154 week high and RSI in overbought territory show momentum slowing after a ~400-pip, two-week leg.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4054, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the 1.4128 july high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.4054 fib 23.6%, near Scotia's 1.4055 fair value
- Sustained close above the 1.4154 week high opens the path to the 1.4248 june high
- Loss of the rising trendline from the Sep 8 low would end the Sep upswing sequence; the 1.3732 august low marks the base
- Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US ADP/PCE (Wed) could materially shift this read