21:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stretched and stalling · RSI 70 · price 1.41411
Higher highs / higher lows since 1.3759 swing low.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 swing low, a roughly 390-pip climb as surging US yields and Fed-BoC divergence kept CAD heavy. EMA20 holds above EMA50, and the higher-low trendline sits near 1.4060. The last six bars have stalled in a tight 1.4133–1.4154 box just under the swing high at the late-July highs, with ATR(14) compressed near 18 pips and RSI around 70.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4087, 1.4025
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.4154 swing high extends the uptrend and opens the 1.4200 round number
- H4 close below the 1.4133 swing low breaks the consolidation floor
- Loss of the 1.4087 higher low, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3973-1.4154 leg, breaks the higher-high/higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4025 pivot low
- A break of the higher-low trendline near 1.4060 ends the multi-week uptrend structure
- Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US ADP/PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read