Higher lows since Tuesday, tight range under the week high.
USD/CAD climbed about 130 pips from Tuesday's 1.4025 low, with the decisive leg into Thursday's NY session out of the 1.4100–1.4105 thu breakout base as Fed hike bets and US yields kept CAD heavy. Friday settled into a 20-pip range between the 1.4133 friday low and the 1.4154 week high, and the Sunday open briefly dipped before running back to the week high. Price sits just above ema20 with RSI(14) near 57, off the prior highs, so momentum is flattening while the higher-lows trendline stays intact.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4133, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4133 friday low and ema20 breaks the Friday range and exposes the 1.4105 thu breakout base near the 38.2% fib
Break below the higher-lows trendline from Tuesday would mark the first structural lower-low of the week
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%), then US ADP and PCE Wed, could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalled into a flat top · RSI 50 · price 1.41438
Higher lows Tue–Thu, Friday range 1.4133–1.4154.
USDCAD rose from Tuesday's 1.4025 low to a 1.4154 week high. The largest leg came across Thursday's London-NY transition, as US yields and Fed hike bets kept CAD under pressure. Friday stalled into a 1.4133–1.4154 range as oil slipped and USD paused, with price drifting under the Tue–Thu rising trendline; the new-week open holds at EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 50 and the 1.4154 week high sitting at the top of the late-July highs zone.
Support: 1.41329, 1.41251, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high breaks the Friday range and clears the late-July highs zone, bringing the 1.4200 round number into view
Failure to hold the 1.4133 Friday low exposes the 1.4125 swing low near the 23.6% fib of the Tue–Fri rally, then the 1.4100 round number
Canada GDP (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS on Tue 29 Sep could materially shift this read; ADP/PCE follow Wed
Continued trade below the rising trendline with RSI(14) failing to recover 55 would confirm the rally has shifted into a range
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into Friday range · RSI 47 · price 1.41411
Higher lows Tue–Thu, then flat 1.4128–1.4154 range.
USDCAD ground higher from Tuesday's 1.4025 low through Thursday's NY session, driven by yield-led USD strength and Fed hike bets, with each session setting a higher low along the rising trendline. Friday stalled as the USD paused on the oil slide. Price chopped between the fri low at 1.4128 and the week high at 1.4154, slipped off the rising trendline and closed just under the ema20 at 1.4145. The NY low at 1.4133 held twice into the close, and RSI(14) has faded to the high 40s from overbought readings Thursday.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4128, 1.4105
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4154
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4154 week high breaks the Friday range and extends through the late-July highs
Loss of the 1.4128 fri low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement near 1.4105
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US ADP/PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to reclaim the ema20 keeps the rising trendline break in play