Monday breakout above Friday high, retested and extended to fresh week high.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday. The dominant leg came Thursday from London into the NY session, 1.4103 to 1.4149, as building Fed hike bets widened the US-Canada rate gap. Friday consolidated beneath 1.4154, then Monday broke the Friday high, retested it in the first hour of NY near 1.4155 and extended to a Monday high of 1.4177, with price above both EMAs and RSI(14) near 67, just short of overbought.
Support: 1.4168, 1.4154, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC, f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The 1.4190 cited res and the 1.4200 round number above the Monday high are areas to watch for rejection or break.
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 1.4168 keep the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline from the weekly open intact.
An H1 close back below the friday high at 1.4154 would undercut the breakout-retest read.
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4135 would break the higher-low structure. That level also marks the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Monday rally.
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; Monday broke above Friday's 1.4154 prior high.
USDCAD has stair-stepped from 1.4064 on Wednesday to a 1.4177 week high. The main leg came in Thursday's NY session, and Monday's London-NY transition carried price through the 1.4154 prior high as the US 10-year hit 5.274% and firmer crude failed to lift CAD. Pullbacks keep finding the ema20 and holding the higher-lows trendline, but RSI(14) near 67 sits below Thursday's impulse reading while price is higher, and hourly ranges have compressed below the 1.4200 round number. The weekly open near 1.4134 lines up with Friday's low and the 38.2% fib of the week's advance.
Support: 1.4166, 1.4155, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4177, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read; a ≥+0.2% print is the scenario flagged for a CAD short-covering pullback
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus the Tuesday Fedspeak slate, with ADP on Wednesday
An H1 close back below the 1.4155 prior high breaks the higher-lows trendline and turns the breakout into a false break
A close above the 1.4177 week high and the 1.4200 round number extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the weekly open near 1.4134 (38.2% fib) would mark the first lower-low of the week
21:04 UTC
Uptrend, steady higher lows, momentum firm but not stretched · RSI 66 · price 1.41739
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; Friday's range capped at 1.4154, broken and retested on Monday.
USDCAD has climbed from 1.4057 on Wednesday to a new week high at 1.4177 late in Monday's NY session. The widening US-Canada yield gap and US 10y yields at 2007 highs have outweighed firmer crude. Friday's 1.4154 prior high capped the session range, then gave way from the Asia session Monday. NY-hours dips to 1.4155-1.4158 held above that level as a retest, and a Monday trendline of higher lows now runs just under the ema20 near 1.4165, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-60s rather than overbought.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4154, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4177, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4154 prior high turns Monday's breakout into a false break
Break of the Monday trendline and ema20 near 1.4165 would end the higher-low sequence
Stalling below the 1.4177 week high and the 1.4200 round number would leave the 1.4135 weekly open as the next structural reference
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; Monday broke above Friday's range to a fresh week high.
USD/CAD has added roughly 120 pips since Wednesday's open. The dominant leg came Thursday from London into the NY session, 1.4105 to 1.4149, followed by a flat Friday range capped at the 1.4155 Friday high. Monday broke above that high and extended to a 1.4176 week high during NY hours, with the widening Fed-BoC gap and 10y yields at 2007 highs outweighing firmer crude. Pullbacks keep finding EMA(20) and the higher-lows line, and RSI(14) is holding in the 60s without a bearish divergence; the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Monday impulse sits near 1.4131, just under the 1.4135 weekly open.
Support: 1.4164, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below the 1.4155 Friday high puts price back inside Friday's range and weakens the breakout
A break of the higher-lows line and the 1.4135 weekly open would mark the first lower-low since Wednesday
Acceptance above the 1.4176 week high brings 1.4190 and the 1.4200 round number into view
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, steady but not stretched · RSI 65 · price 1.4171
Higher highs and higher lows; breakout above last week's 1.4154 high retested at NY open.
USD/CAD has extended the week's advance from 1.4057, with Thursday's NY-session leg to 1.4149 the dominant move. Price cleared Friday's 1.4154 prior high in the Asia session from the 1.4135 weekly open, a push that aligns with the widening US-Canada yield gap. The NY-open dip retested 1.4154 and held, keeping the Monday higher lows intact. The following push set a 1.4175 Monday high, and the late NY stall came as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the dollar's gains. Closes are holding above the rising ema20 near 1.4162, and RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s, firm but short of overbought.
Support: 1.4162, 1.4154, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4175 Monday high opens the path to the 1.4190 area cited as resistance and the 1.4200 round number.
A break of the Monday higher lows trendline and a close back below the 1.4154 prior high would make Monday's breakout a false break and expose the 1.4135 weekly open, near the 38.2% of the week's advance.
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC, f/c 0%) and US JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC, f/c 7.23M) could materially shift this read.
Further US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines pulling oil and US yields lower would test the ema20 hold.
Higher lows; broke above last week's range top, retest held.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since last Tuesday's 1.4057 low. Thursday's London-to-NY leg after mixed Canadian retail sales lifted price into a Thursday–Friday range capped at 1.4154, and Monday's Asia push cleared that range top. The early-London dip held above it as a retest, and price has since held above the ema20 into the NY session just under the 1.4175 Monday high, with hawkish Fed repricing keeping the yield gap wide and RSI(14) in the mid-60s rather than stretched.
Support: 1.4162, 1.4154, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4154 range top puts price back inside last week's range and turns the breakout into a false break
A break of the rising trendline of higher lows exposes the weekly open at 1.4135, near the 38.2% rally fib around 1.4130
A close above the 1.4175 Monday high opens the 1.4190 resistance and the 1.4200 round number
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) plus US JOLTS and Fedspeak on Tue could materially shift this read
The dominant leg of the window came in Thursday's NY session, lifting USDCAD from 1.4103 to 1.4149. Friday then held a 1.4133–1.4154 range before Monday's Asia session cleared that prior high from the 1.4135 weekly open, extending the six-day streak as Fed-BoC divergence keeps CAD heavy and firmer crude offers little offset. Pullbacks into London (asia low 1.4148) and the NY open (1.4155 retest of the prior high) both held above EMA(20), building a higher-lows trendline into a new week high at 1.4175. RSI(14) sits near 66, firm but not yet overbought on this timeframe.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4148, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.4155 prior high and the higher-lows trendline would undercut the breakout read and expose the 1.4148 asia low
Loss of the 1.4135 weekly open would erase Monday's gains and return price to Friday's range
A close above the 1.4175 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 psych level
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and Tuesday's Canada GDP (12:30 UTC), JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken to the upside.
USDCAD has built higher lows since Tuesday's 1.4057 low. The dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, when surging US yields and a firm jobless claims print carried the pair through 1.4100 toward 1.4149. After Friday ranged 1.4133–1.4154, Monday broke above the Friday high from a 1.4135 open and printed a session high at 1.4173. The NY-hour dip to 1.4155 held the old range top, and price is back above the ema20 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, leaving the week impulse unretraced with 1.4190 and the 1.4200 round number overhead.
Support: 1.4162, 1.4154, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4173, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4154 friday high undercuts the breakout and returns price to Friday's range
Failure to hold the 1.4133 friday low breaks the higher lows sequence and the rising trendline
Close above the 1.4173 session high extends the week impulse toward the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then Canada GDP 12:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; last week's high broken and retested.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Tuesday's 1.4057 low. Thursday's London-into-NY leg and Monday's push through last week's 1.4154 prior high extended the run to a 1.4173 Monday high during the London session, as the widening Fed-BoC gap keeps CAD soft. Dips toward 1.4148-1.4155 held around the prior high and EMA(20) near 1.4158, with RSI(14) around 60 and short of overbought; the weekly open at 1.4135 marks the base of Monday's move.
Support: 1.4154, 1.41348, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4154 prior high would turn Monday's breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4135 weekly open and the higher-low trendline exposes Thursday's 1.4125 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the Tue-Mon impulse
H1 close above the 1.4173 Monday high puts the 1.4200 round number in focus
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh two-month high · RSI 63 · price 1.41656
Higher lows since Wednesday, Friday range top cleared.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4057 base. Thursday's NY session delivered the main leg as October Fed hike pricing widened the Fed-BoC gap, and CAD drew little support from firm oil. Monday's London session broke above the Friday high at 1.4154, which had capped two attempts, to a monday high of 1.4173, and price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 63, short of overbought.
Support: 1.4154, 1.41348, 1.41277
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4190
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the friday high at 1.4154 returns price to Friday's range and weakens the breakout read
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4135 and the higher lows trendline breaks this week's sequence; the friday low at 1.4128 sits near the 38.2% of the Wed-Mon rally
A close above the monday high at 1.4173 opens the next res at 1.4190
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh week high · RSI 65 · price 1.41671
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken to the upside.
USD/CAD has rallied steadily from Tuesday's 1.4057 swing low. The dominant leg came Thursday across the London-NY transition, as rising October Fed hike odds and US yields at 2007 highs widened the rate gap against a BoC on hold. After a Friday range capped at the 1.4154 prior high, Monday's Asia session cleared that level, London held the 1.4148 asian low and extended to a 1.4173 week high, with price above EMA(20) and the rising trendline and RSI(14) near 65, firm but short of overbought.
Support: 1.4154, 1.41475, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4190
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4154 prior high would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the 1.4148 asian low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4135 weekly open
Close above the 1.4173 week high opens the path to flagged resistance at 1.4190
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then Canada GDP (12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending to new week highs · RSI 67 · price 1.41671
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken on Monday.
USDCAD has stepped higher from 1.4057 since Wednesday. The big legs came around the London-NY transition on Wednesday and Thursday, as Fed-hike bets and a wider US-Canada rate gap weighed on CAD. Friday's 1.4133–1.4154 range held into the weekend. The week opened with a small dip to the weekly open at 1.4135, then Asia and London pushed through the prior high at 1.4154 to a session high at 1.4173. Price holds above EMA(20) along a rising support line, and RSI(14) near 67 sits close to, but not at, overbought, while the flagged res at 1.4190 sits just overhead.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4135, 1.4115
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4154 prior high would turn Monday's breakout into a false break and return price to Friday's range
Loss of the rising support line and the 1.4135 weekly open breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 50% retracement at 1.4115
H1 close above the 1.4190 flagged res opens the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, and CA GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%), could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; Thu–Fri range broken higher.
USDCAD has stair-stepped higher from 1.4040 last Tuesday, with the largest leg coming early in Thursday's NY session. That move followed the US jobless claims beat and soft Canadian retail data, and it fits the digest's Fed-hike and rate-gap story. Thursday–Friday's 1.4133–1.4154 range gave way in Monday's Asia session, the Asian range held at the asia low of 1.4148, and London extended to a session high at 1.41655. Price sits above an ema20 near 1.4155 with RSI(14) around 67, firm but not yet overbought on this timeframe. The 23.6% level of the Tuesday–Monday advance lines up with the weekly open at 1.4135.
Support: 1.4155, 1.41475, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.41655, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the asia low at 1.4148 puts price back inside last week's range and tests the ema20 read
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.4135 (23.6% of the Tuesday–Monday advance) would break the higher-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.4200 round number clears the digest's 1.4190 resistance area and extends the advance
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today could shift October hike pricing and this read
CA GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): an upside surprise into a stretched advance could trigger a sharp pullback
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high after consolidation · RSI 65 · price 1.41613
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday range 1.4133–1.4154 tested from above.
USDCAD has climbed about 130 pips from Tuesday's 1.4032 low. The dominant leg came across Thursday's London-NY transition after the US jobless claims beat, as Fed-hike pricing widened the gap with the BoC. Friday held a 1.4133–1.4154 consolidation, then Monday's Asia session printed a new week high at 1.4164; London dipped back to retest the prior high near 1.4150, which held, and price sits above a rising EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 65, short of overbought.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4133, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4164 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4154 prior high returns price to the Friday range, with the 1.4133 range low as the floor
Break below the 1.4133 range low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 1.4113
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then CA GDP Tue 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows all week; Friday range topped, Monday nudging above prior-week high.
USDCAD has printed higher lows across the whole window. The dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, from 1.4097 to 1.4149, after the 197K jobless claims beat widened the Fed-BoC rate-gap theme. Friday then ranged 1.4133–1.4154 above a rising higher-lows line. Monday lifted off the weekly open at 1.4135 and cleared the prior high at 1.4154 to a Monday high of 1.4164. Pullbacks since have held the Monday low at 1.4148, with price just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 60, well short of stretched on this chart.
Support: 1.4154, 1.41475, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41639, 1.4190
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below the prior high at 1.4154 and the Monday low at 1.4148 would turn Monday's push into a false break inside Friday's range
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4135 and the higher-lows line would break the week's higher-low sequence and expose the fib 50% near 1.4130
A close above the Monday high at 1.4164 opens the path to cited resistance at 1.4190
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%), could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 58 · price 1.41523
Higher lows since Tuesday, now compressing in a 1.4133–1.4164 band.
USD/CAD rallied from 1.4027 on Tuesday to a week high of 1.4164 in Monday's Asia session. The largest leg came during Thursday's NY session, as hawkish Fed pricing widened the US–Canada rate gap. Since Friday, price has compressed between the friday low at 1.4133 and the week high, and RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s. Price holds just above EMA(20) and the higher-low trendline near 1.4150, with the monday low at 1.4148 the first shelf underneath.
Support: 1.41475, 1.41329, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41639, 1.4190
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 1.4133 breaks the consolidation base and the higher-low trendline
H1 close above the week high at 1.4164 opens the 1.4190 cap flagged as resistance
50% retrace of the week rally sits near 1.4096, close to the thursday low at 1.4097
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%), plus JOLTS and Fedspeak later Tuesday, could materially shift this read
US ADP and PCE on Wednesday are the next high-impact test of the rate-gap move
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near week high · RSI 60 · price 1.41592
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken Monday.
USDCAD has built higher lows from Tuesday's 1.4027 base. The strongest leg came during Thursday's London-NY transition, when price ran from 1.4117 to 1.4149, holding the 1.4125 pullback low into the close. Friday ranged 1.4133–1.4154 as the oil slide took some edge off the dollar. Monday's Asia session cleared that range to a 1.4164 week high on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap, and the Asia pullback was absorbed near the H1 ema20 at 1.4150, with RSI(14) steady around 60.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.41639, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4164 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4150 returns price to the Friday range
H1 close below the 1.4133 friday low (23.6% fib zone) breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 1.4125 pullback low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US ADP/PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs intact; tight consolidation above 1.4128 since Thursday.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily from 1.4025 since Tuesday. NY sessions drove each leg, and Thursday's NY push cleared the 1.4130 late-July high as the widening Fed-BoC rate gap weighed on CAD. Since then price has held a 1.4128–1.4154 consolidation above a rising range floor, and Monday's Asia push to the 1.4164 monday high came on a weaker RSI(14) reading than Thursday's peak, with price now hovering just above the ema20 near 1.4149.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4135, 1.4128
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 1.4149 returns price to the middle of Thursday–Friday's consolidation
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4135 and the friday low at 1.4128 breaks the range floor and exposes the 38.2% of the week fib near 1.4111
Sustained trade above the 1.4164 monday high clears the bearish RSI divergence and opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC), US JOLTS and Fedspeak Tuesday, then ADP/PCE Wednesday could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday, now a tight consolidation 1.4133–1.4164.
USD/CAD has stair-stepped higher from Tuesday's 1.4025 low, printing a higher low each day. The dominant legs came in NY hours as Fed hike repricing widened the rate gap and oil gave CAD no offset. Thursday's NY push through the 1.4130 late-July pivot was the key break. Since then price has compressed into a consolidation between the Friday lows/weekly open near 1.4135 and the 1.4164 week high set in Monday's Asia session. RSI(14) near 53 is printing lower highs against that new price high, a bearish divergence, while price sits right on the EMA(20) at 1.4148.
Support: 1.41476, 1.41348, 1.41107
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.41639
What it said to watch
H1 close below the weekly open and range floor near 1.4133 breaks the consolidation and exposes the fib 38.2 of the Tuesday-Monday impulse at 1.4111
H1 close above the 1.4164 week high, after clearing the 1.4154 friday high, resumes the uptrend and voids the bearish divergence
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.4148 would mark the first loss of the EMA(20) cycle since Thursday
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US ADP/PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs since Tuesday, now a tight 1.4133–1.4164 consolidation.
USD/CAD climbed from 1.4025 on Tuesday to the 1.4154 prior high by Friday's London open. The dominant leg came in Thursday's London-to-NY-open push, as firm US data and October Fed hike pricing widened the rate gap. Friday's NY session held the friday low at 1.4133, and Monday's Asia session printed a 1.4164 week high before slipping back to hover just under the prior high. Price sits above a flattening EMA(20) near 1.4148, with RSI(14) holding around 59, well off Thursday's extreme.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4133, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4164 week high ends the consolidation and brings the 1.4200 round number into view
Sustained trade back below the prior high at 1.4154 and the ema20 keeps the range read intact
Failure to hold the 1.4133 friday low (weekly open 1.4135) breaks the consolidation base, exposing the 1.4100 round number and the 38.2% level of the tue-mon fib near 1.4111
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and Fed speakers Tuesday could materially shift this read
US ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC on Wednesday are the larger event risk for the uptrend
Higher highs and higher lows; Thu–Fri consolidation, Monday marginal new high.
USD/CAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday. The dominant leg was Thursday's London-into-NY drive from 1.4103 to 1.4149, which came as markets priced a wider Fed–BoC rate gap. Thursday and Friday then compressed into a 1.4133–1.4154 consolidation above EMA(20), and Monday's Asia session pushed to a 1.4164 week high from a weekly open near the range low. RSI(14) near 59 is lagging that higher high versus Thursday's impulse, a bearish divergence while price holds the higher-lows line.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4133, 1.4111
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4133 range low (Friday low / weekly open area) breaks the Thu–Fri floor and the late-July pivot
Loss of the ema20 around 1.4148 would be the first sign the Monday push is failing
Sustained trade above the 1.4164 week high clears the consolidation and opens the 1.4200 round number
A deeper pullback toward the fib 38.2% at 1.4111 would retest Thursday's breakout base
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC), then US ADP and PCE (Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
Stair-step higher lows since Tuesday, compressing into a tight 1.4133–1.4164 shelf.
USDCAD has ground higher from Tuesday's 1.4025 low. The dominant leg ran 1.4105→1.4149 during Thursday's NY session as 5%+ Treasury yields and Fed-hike bets weighed on CAD. Friday compressed between the friday low at 1.4133 and the friday high at 1.4154 as the USD paused on the oil drop. After a shallow dip at the Sunday open to 1.4135, just below the prior close at 1.4141, Asia printed a marginal new week high at 1.4164 before easing back to 1.4151. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 57 and no longer pressing overbought.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4133, 1.4111
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the friday low at 1.4133 breaks the Friday base and exposes the 38.2% fib of the week's rally near 1.4111
Sustained trade above the week high at 1.4164 extends the uptrend toward the 1.4200 round number
Repeated failure at the friday high 1.4154 and week high 1.4164 would mark the shelf as a topping range after an 11-of-12-session run
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC, f/c 0%), then US ADP and PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday, flat Friday range, marginal push above range top in Asia.
USD/CAD ground higher from Tuesday's 1.4025 low through a string of higher lows. The largest leg came in the London-NY transition on Thursday, as US yields and Fed-hike bets weighed on CAD. Friday compressed into a 1.4133-1.4154 range, and the Asia session has since pushed marginally through that range top (the prior high) to a 1.4164 session high, with price holding above the ema20 near 1.4146 and RSI(14) around 59.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4146, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the prior high at 1.4154 would mark the Asia push as a false break and return price to Friday's range
Failure to hold the friday low at 1.4133 (weekly open 1.4135) opens the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse near 1.4111
A sustained hold above the session high at 1.4164 exposes the 1.4200 round number
BoC Macklem speaks today; Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US ADP/PCE Wed 12:15-12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near week high · RSI 60 · price 1.41547
Higher lows since Tuesday, Friday range 1.4133–1.4154 now tested.
USD/CAD has built a steady run of higher lows from Tuesday's 1.4025 Asia low. Thursday's NY session drove the leg through the prior range top at 1.4113 toward 1.4149 as yields and Fed hike bets outweighed oil. Friday stalled in a 1.4133–1.4154 band as the USD paused on the oil dip, and Monday's Asia session opened near 1.4135 before lifting to a marginal new week high at 1.4156. RSI(14) sits around 60 against a mid-70s reading on Thursday, a bearish divergence at the high, while price now straddles the 1.4130–1.4150 late-July highs flagged in the CAD digest.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41348, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.41561, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below the weekly open at 1.4135 and Friday's 1.4133 low would break the higher lows sequence
Sustained trade above the 1.4156 week high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the july highs near 1.4150 keeps the Friday consolidation band in play, with the 1.4113 range top below
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US ADP/PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read